By now, we know the news of Bojan Bogdanovic. Utah’s starting small forward is out for the season after wrist surgery.
But what are the domino effects of losing Bogdanovic’s 20 points per game? How will the Jazz compensate? Initially, we hinted at some of the things that can happen. Now, as the NBA goes full steam ahead in a quest to return to play, we take a deeper dive into what it means.
Joe Ingles returns to the starting lineup
This is something I touched on briefly in the initial story written on Bogdanovic’s surgery. We can expand here.
Ingles’ return as a starter gives the Jazz a first unit that’s played 14 minutes together this season. In those 14 minutes, Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Ingles, Royce O’Neale and Rudy Gobert were plus-21. Even with a tiny sample, I can see, at least on paper, how this would be a successful group.
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Ingles and O’Neale are Utah’s two best perimeter defenders, and Ingles gives the starting group more length. Conley, for all of his struggles, had a good season defensively, and that gives Gobert some support. Also, Ingles and Gobert represent Utah’s best pick-and-roll combo. With Ingles in the starting group, the offense will move. The ball will hop. And Ingles will get Gobert involved. Ingles needs to make shots in his return to the starting lineup. But playing with Gobert and Mitchell and Conley will probably mean better 3-point looks than the ones he was getting with the second unit.
Ingles does give the starting unit a second primary ballhandler, invaluable in a playoff setting. He’s obviously nowhere near the pure scorer that Bogdanovic is, but the bet here is that he will slide seamlessly into the lineup because he’s such a blender as a player.
The time is now
Conley’s importance to Utah’s potential postseason success just became absolute. For the Jazz to have a chance to get out of the first round, Conley’s going to have to resemble the point guard he was for so many seasons with the Memphis Grizzlies. To be fair, he was doing that in the weeks leading up to the suspension of the season. Now, Utah’s success depends on his being the second-best offensive player on the roster.
The good news: This is now clear. There is no ambiguity. If Conley struggles, the Jazz probably go home, unless Mitchell goes off for an entire series. More good news: Conley will have the ball in his hands plenty. Without Bogdanovic in the lineup, his chunk of offensive touches have to be spread around. A good portion of that will fall to Conley. Players are usually comfortable when they play without thinking. Conley did a lot of thinking earlier in the season as he acclimated to Utah’s system. In the last few weeks of the season before play stopped, Conley was a lot more instinctual. With Bogdanovic out, he will have to be that much more aggressive offensively. The Jazz need his playmaking ability.
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The rotation changes
Part of Utah’s success with the rotation in February and early March was staggering Mitchell and Conley, which allowed the Jazz to give both guys room to run the team. That luxury — allowing Conley to run the second unit — is probably no longer available. Here’s why: With Bogdanovic in the lineup, Emmanuel Mudiay slid out of the rotation. Now, Mudiay — who has had a very good season — slides back in. It’s redundant to have Conley and Mudiay on the floor at the same time, especially with Jordan Clarkson likely on the floor as well. Conley’s rotation, as well as Mitchell’s, will probably have to change.
From where I sit, Mitchell probably has to stagger with the second unit, with Conley playing the bulk of the first and third quarters. That will allow Mudiay to become the true point guard with the second unit, with Mitchell and Clarkson on the floor. You can even stagger Ingles with the second unit, but you’d probably rather have his minutes overlap with Gobert’s minutes as much as possible. What that means is Utah’s second unit will likely resemble a lot of isolation basketball, as Mitchell, Mudiay and Clarkson are all best creating their own offense off the dribble.
It could become a fascinating balance for Jazz coach Quin Snyder. The Jazz had found the right symmetry in their rotation, and that symmetry took most of the season to achieve. Now, Snyder will have to navigate around the unavailability of his second-best scorer. If the NBA returns with a few regular-season games before heading to the playoffs, it could help the Jazz significantly. It would give them a few games to tinker with what does and doesn’t work.
On the other hand, if the league comes back and goes straight to the playoffs, the Jazz will be tinkering on the fly … and with everything on the line.
The unproven will have to prove it
Clarkson was a part of an NBA Finals run with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Mudiay hasn’t been to the playoffs. Tony Bradley has never played meaningful playoff minutes. Georges Niang has played few meaningful playoff minutes.
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This is the bulk of Utah’s second unit, and now they will be counted on to provide big, impactful minutes when they mean the most. Perhaps more than anything, this is where the Jazz will miss Bogdanovic. He’s been a veteran of multiple playoff teams. He’s played well at the highest level, and his steely mentality on offense would have been sure to help the Jazz when it mattered. The good news is that the entirety of the Jazz starting unit is a veteran group and used to the postseason. But the second unit isn’t overly experienced. Clarkson, Bradley, Niang and Mudiay are all fearless competitors, and all are very good at their biggest strengths. Without Bogdanovic, Utah’s second group will be thrown directly into the fire.
The more things change
Bogdanovic’s presence, especially in the playoffs, was designed to insulate Mitchell, provide him spacing and give him a bona fide second scorer. Now, opponents can fully game-plan for Mitchell. If this is like last season, when the Jazz couldn’t make a shot, things could turn dangerous. Mitchell is still just 23 years old and still has a lot to learn, despite his obvious offensive talents. Without Bogdanovic, Mitchell will have a chance to prove his growth from last season’s nightmarish playoff series against the Houston Rockets.
(Photo: Daniel Shirey / Getty Images)
