Explaining the NHL’s Return to Play plan and the new Draft lottery system

DETROIT, MI - MARCH 22: A stack of practice pucks sit on the dasher prior to warm ups before an NHL game between the Detroit Red Wings and the Washington Capitals at Little Caesars Arena on March 22, 2018 in Detroit, Michigan. The Capitals defeated the Wings 1-0. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images) *** Local Caption ***
By Scott Burnside
May 26, 2020

For the first time since the NHL paused its schedule on March 12 there was actual news regarding a possible resumption of the 2019-20 season as NHL commissioner Gary Bettman confirmed plans for a 24-team format and explained a new format for the 2020 NHL Draft lottery.

The Return to Play plan will have a best-of-five play-in round among the No. 5-12 seeds in each conference, while the top four seeds in each conference play a round robin.

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The draft lottery will potentially take part in two phases with the seven teams not returning to play and the eight losers from the play-in round all having a chance to win the first-overall pick.

Here are the key points of Bettman’s address dubbed the Return To Play plan.

  • The top four teams in each conference will get an automatic bid into the first round of the playoffs, but they will play a three-game round robin to determine seeding in the opening round of the playoffs. Those games will employ regular season rules, including overtime and shootouts. If there is a tie after the round robin, regular season point percentage will serve as the tie-breaker.
  • The No. 5-12 seeds in each conference will play a best-of-five play-in round using traditional playoff rules (i.e. playing each game until a winner is declared).
  • The winners of those play-in rounds will play the top four teams in each conference, although the Return To Play committee has yet to determine whether those matchups will be based on seeding or bracket formula.
  • The length of the first two round of the playoffs has also yet to be determined and could be best-of-five or best-of-seven.
  • The conference finals and Stanley Cup Final will be a best-of-seven.
  • The standings and play-in matchups are:
NHL's Return to Play Format
Eastern ConferenceWestern Conference
1. Bruins
1. Blues
2. Lightning
2. Avalanche
3. Capitals
3. Golden Knights
4. Flyers
4. Stars
5. Penguins vs. 12. Canadiens
5. Oilers vs. 12. Blackhawks
6. Hurricanes vs. 11. Rangers
6. Predators vs. 11. Coyotes
7. Islanders vs. 10. Panthers
7. Canucks vs. 10. Wild
8. Maple Leafs vs. 9. Blue Jackets
8. Flames vs. 9. Jets
  • Phase 2, which is voluntary small group workouts at team facilities, begins in early June, so it’s expected that training camps (Phase 3) will not begin before mid-July.
  • The resumption of play (Phase 4) will be in two hub cities, with 12 teams from each conference in each city. Those cities will be selected at a later date based on COVID-19 numbers, testing ability and government regulations. The NHL expects to pick the two cities in the next three-to-four weeks.
  • The cities under consideration are: Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Edmonton, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Pittsburgh, Toronto and Vancouver.
  • The 2019-20 regular season is considered complete with 189 games that will not be played. The league expects it will play a full 82-game regular season in 2020-21.

NHL Draft Lottery Rules

  • As for the draft lottery, the first 15 picks in the 2020 draft will go to the seven teams that do not continue to play this season, as well as the eight losing teams in the play-in round.
  • Phase 1 of the lottery will involve the bottom seven teams plus placeholder spots for the eight teams that lose in the qualifying round (or the teams that have acquired the picks belonging to these teams). The first lottery will take place on June 26, prior to the resumption of play.
  • There will be a drawing for the top three selections. If all three spots are won by teams that don’t return to play, there will not be a Phase 2 of the lottery.
  • If a placeholder spot wins any of the top three picks, there will be a second lottery with the eight teams that lose in the play-in round to determine which team gets the pick or picks. This lottery will happen after the play-in round and before the first round of the playoffs.
  • The remaining top 15 draft picks will go to the remaining bottom seven teams and the eight teams that lose in the play-in round in inverse order of their points percentage at the time of the pause.
  • The bottom seven teams would line up, at worst, with picks No. 4-10 if the placeholder spots won all three of the top picks.
  • The odds for winning the No. 1 pick are:
TeamPoints PercentageOdds
1. Detroit Red Wings
0.275
18.50%
2. Ottawa Senators
0.437
13.50%
3. Ottawa Senators*
0.437
11.50%
4. Los Angeles Kings
0.457
9.50%
5. Anaheim Ducks
0.472
8.50%
6. New Jersey Devils
.493**
7.50%
7. Buffalo Sabres
.493**
6.50%
8. Team A
n/a
6.00%
9. Team B
n/a
5.00%
10. Team C
n/a
3.50%
11. Team D
n/a
3.00%
12. Team E
n/a
2.50%
13. Team F
n/a
2.00%
14. Team G
n/a
1.50%
15. Team H
n/a
1.00%

Acquired in a trade with San Jose Sharks (.450 points percentage)

** Buffalo Sabres ranked higher than New Jersey Devils on the basis of higher regulation/OT win percentage (Buffalo, .406 ROW%; New Jersey, .348 ROW%)

(Top photo: Dave Reginek / NHLI via Getty Images)

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