You have likely heard the scenarios already, none of which include them.
In preparing to retstart the league and resume action for the first time since games were suspended March 11, league sources believe it’s appearing more and more likely the Hornets are not going to be among the invitees. Even if the NBA elects to go with the 22-team format, adding six more to the mix for a play-in style tournament, they won’t be packing their bags for the proposed bubble site in Orlando.
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And if I were the Hornets’ hierarchy, I wouldn’t be happy about it. At all.
It’s one thing to eschew what seems to be the fair way to go and start up with just the 16 teams currently sitting in playoff positions. Tossing in a few more teams? OK, well that’s partially understandable, knowing it could serve as a tuneup and prelude to the actual postseason, spawning more interest and increasing revenue by televising more games.
But going with five of the six teams in the West, as the rumblings indicate, feels like the league is caving to pressure (cue Wu-Tang’s “C.R.E.A.M.” right about here). Including Washington, which sits 1.5 games ahead of the Hornets in the Eastern Conference standings, while essentially telling Charlotte to peace out probably doesn’t seem like much of an omission to the casual fan.
Nobody wants to see the Hornets, they’ll say.
Look, star power rules. We know that. Casting a pre-playoff field that includes Zion Williamson and Damian Lillard and features teams that were within a half-game of each other in the standings is an idea born in dollar signs. But what if the Hornets had a Zion-level or Ja Morant-type drawing card and sat that many games out of the ninth spot behind the Wizards and technically weren’t mathematically eliminated from the postseason picture? Don’t you think the NBA would have found some formula to slide them in as well?
Hasn’t the process always been equal for both conferences? Why should the West have four more teams competing than the East?
By not being included it could wind up leading to the franchise’s detriment as it operates while navigating nearly nine months without playing a meaningful game. The 2020-21 season opener could be pushed to December, leaving the Hornets in an unenviable position.
Look at the ways the 22-team scenario will hurt the franchise:
Development
This is the first area of concern considering that’s what this season was all about. It’s exactly what coach James Borrego preached, going back as far as late September/early October.
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The Hornets were focused on sewing the seeds of the future with their young core and were doing just that, as evidenced by having three players invited to the Rising Stars Challenge during All-Star Weekend. While there were the usual expected growing pains, they were beginning to put it together just before the action was suspended. If you take their last 10 games, in a weird way their 4-6 record (same as Washington) wasn’t indicative of how they were playing.
Wins over Toronto, Houston and Miami were sandwiched around a two-point defeat to Denver, a one-point loss to San Antonio and a five-point double-overtime loss to Atlanta. And don’t forget Charlotte held Milwaukee to less than 100 points for the first time in more than a calendar year.
Not getting an opportunity to finish building on that for possibly as much as 10 months will do nothing to spur development for a team counting on that as part of its vision to reconstruct the roster to make it one with true playoff potential. Let’s be real: The young guys need all the minutes together they can get.
Besides, they haven’t completely figured out if the tandem’s of Terry Rozier and Devonte’ Graham and PJ Washington and Miles Bridges can work long-term and that could hinder how they decide to proceed in the offseason. More time would be beyond beneficial, and from what I’m gathering, being among those other teams would guarantee extending their season roughly five to seven days.
Who knows how long omitting them from the restart will set them back?
Lost revenue
As a small market entity, the Hornets are one of the franchises that count on receiving their cut of the league’s revenue sharing. It’s a necessity to be able to try to compete with those in larger markets that possess an influx of non-stop cash.
Missing out on any kind of TV revenue they could have generated from a few more games doesn’t sound like much. But there’s a good possibility every lost dollar is going to have long-term implications for Charlotte.
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Because here’s the double punch to the gut: less revenue than initially anticipated will have an adverse effect on the Hornets’ salary cap situation. They could go from having around $28 million to $21 million, enough to alter the amount of salary they could take back in any proposed deal. So not giving them the slightest bit of a chance to make even the slimmest portion of it up very may well be a devastating one-two combination to the solar plexus, putting them down on the canvas for a while.
Waning interest
There’s no need to sugarcoat it because the numbers are there.
Getting enough fans in the seats at Spectrum Center has been an issue and that was no different throughout their 31 home games before action was halted. The Hornets ranked dead last among the 30 teams in attendance, drawing in 478,591. Generating buzz was tough, particularly during those mid-week games against teams that didn’t have much sizzle on their own rosters.
Just imagine what no discernable reason to root for them for more than two full meteorological seasons will do. For those on the fringe, like the casual customer who shows up for a few games just to see what’s going on because they don’t follow them closely, there’s little incentive for them to pay much attention. And with a playoff structure that could lead to postseason wrapping up just weeks prior to the autumnal equinox, the Hornets would be rendered an afterthought for months.
In a time there normally would be free agency (Charlotte has cap space), the draft lottery (the Hornets at least have a chance at getting the No. 1 pick) and the draft itself, there would be none of that to keep fans interested until the postseason is completed.
One positive is this: The Hornets won’t be putting their players and staff potentially at risk from COVID-19 for the sake of a few games. It’s not a bad silver lining, but not quite what they were hoping for in this instance.
That’s why it’s imperative the league gives those teams like the Hornets some kind of assistance to ensure they can drum up enough genuine interest during these “Groundhog Day” times to keep the fans engaged and enthused when they really have no reason to. For months. Whether it’s allowing strictly those eight teams that weren’t invited to the postseason party a chance to win the draft lottery, pushing up free agency ahead of the draft or whatever, that has to happen.
Otherwise, it’s going to be a long summer and fall in Charlotte.
(Photo of the Hornets: Issac Baldizon / NBAE via Getty Images)