Blue Jackets roundtable: Healthy CBJ could thrive in tournament

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Blue Jackets players could get the go-ahead as soon as next week to start meeting for small-group workouts, the first time many of them will have stepped in Nationwide Arena since the season was put on pause on March 12.

No date has been set for the resumption of the 2019-20 season, but the NHL has settled on a pathway to the 2020 Stanley Cup — a 24-team tournament that could start next month and drift well into the fall.

There are still more questions than answers. The Blue Jackets don’t know when they’re playing, or where they’re playing. But they know the who. The Jackets will play the Toronto Maple Leafs in a best-of-five qualifying round for a shot in the playoffs.

The Athletic’s Tom Reed and Aaron Portzline batted around some of the bigger issues and best questions as the Blue Jackets start to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

The league has set forth a plan to resume the season with a 24-team format that could run into late September or even October. Is this a good idea? Or should the league just cut its losses and get ready to start next season in the fall?

Tom Reed: I appreciate the financial ramifications of bagging the playoffs and how they could impact future salary caps and potentially the next CBA. There’s also the matter of hyper-competitive athletes who want to get their name engraved on the Stanley Cup. But the current plan doesn’t make sense for several reasons.

If we could have started the play-in round later this month, I might be more inclined to green-light it. But because safety comes first — and that’s how it should be — the whole tournament feels like a reach, to say nothing on the impact of next season, which could see teams playing deep into the summer again. That in itself is a safety issue. If the NHL were open to an abbreviated 2020-21 season, with playoffs held in April, May and June, I would be fine with that. But that doesn’t look like an option at the moment.

Germany restarted its soccer season three weeks ago. The English are ramping up to resume play in a few weeks. But European soccer, which starts in late August and runs through late May, doesn’t have a playoff system. Next season won’t be as drastically impacted. Revenue from television is a major spur to finish the European soccer seasons. But so is relegation/promotion and qualification for the lucrative Champions League tournament, which runs concurrently with the regular season.

The NHL does not have those issues to resolve. And because the Stanley Cup playoffs were several weeks from starting when the league paused the season in mid-March, nobody is getting screwed. If the tournament was underway and we were in the second round, I would say it has to be finished. But that’s not the case. Maybe we will have a fabulous tournament and it will seem worth the sacrifice, but right how the risks seem greater than the rewards.

Aaron Portzline: It’s a heck of a question, and an easier answer to give when you’re not the one who stands to lose $300 million-plus by not finishing the season. There are long-term consequences either way.

If they don’t finish, the salary cap is going down, down, down unless it’s artificially inflated to spread the losses over several seasons. If they do finish the season, they’re going to adversely affect next season, maybe pushing the start to December or January. It’s pretty remarkable to think that the league might not get back to “normal” scheduling until 2021-22.

I wonder, too, how arena availability could be affected by the ongoing protests in the wake of George Floyd’s killing by Minneapolis police. These protests are going on in hundreds of cities across the country, and in some places, they don’t show signs of fading. I know fans aren’t going to attend games, but are you really going to put games in Minneapolis-St. Paul right now? Downtown Columbus has had (mostly) peaceful protests not too far from Nationwide Arena. Los Angeles has had protests, too. It’s a chaotic world right now.

And, oh by the way, we’re not done with the coronavirus. Or, I should say, the virus isn’t done with us. There are still immense health risks for players and personnel if the league starts back up again. My impulse is to say bag 2019-20 and get ready for next season. But I also know there are no perfect answers here.

Every sports league that stops and starts its seasons will have an asterisk attached to it. But does that mean the winner of this Stanley Cup is less valid than in years past? And does your answer depend on which team is lifting the trophy?

AP: The winner this year will be no less valid, in my opinion. You’ll have to win (at minimum) four series to hoist the Stanley Cup. Maybe a play-in team wins it. You’ll have to win, as always, in a way that speaks to your depth and ability to win games in different ways.

I think back to 2013. It’s not a perfect comparison — there was no start and stop, just a delayed start for the owner’s lockout – but does anybody think of the ’13 Chicago Blackhawks as somehow illegitimate? That regular-season lasted only 48 games. It was barely twice as long as their playoff run (23) games, but I don’t hear people disparaging that run.

Perhaps if they hadn’t won one before (2010) or since (2015), it would be viewed as a fluke. So maybe if a team that’s never won a Cup wins it this year and doesn’t back it up again it will be seen as a fluke. But I think whatever team wins the Cup will be so delirious with joy they won’t care what anybody says.

TR: No and no. This will be an incredibly demanding undertaking for the players, relocating to hub cities and making sacrifices to be away from their families. It certainly will be an adjustment playing without fans and not having home or road games, but whoever emerges victorious will have earned the right to be called champions.

Some worry about teams like Montreal and Chicago winning the Cup when it didn’t look like they were going to make the playoffs. But if you can win five rounds, starting with a best-of-5 play-in series, you have proven yourself worthy.

I suspect the 24-team playoff (and that’s really what it is, no matter what the league calls it) is going to have some wildly unpredictable series and results. Any team could win this thing. Does that include the Blue Jackets?

TR: Absolutely. The Blue Jackets were one of the best stories of the regular season, losing three top players to free agency and enduring waves of injuries, to find themselves in the playoff hunt. The Blue Jackets should be fairly healthy heading into the tournament. Their upset of Tampa Bay last spring and respectable showing against Boston in the second round is proof they are a legitimate contender.

AP: I mean … why not? I think it’s going to be so volatile. The conference finals might be hilariously unsavory for some people. Those are the four teams remaining? I suspect a No. 12 seed takes out a No. 5 seed in the qualifying round. Yes, I’m saying either Chicago beats Edmonton or Montreal takes out Pittsburgh. Book it. And I think there will be plenty more upsets beyond that.

At some point each season, good teams go on streaks where everything makes sense. Who knows which team is going to come out of the long layoff in the best shape?

A hot goaltender can carry you a loooong way in the post-season. Can Elvis Merzlikins or Joonas Korpisalo go on a tear? The Blue Jackets being close to 100 percent healthwise helps, of course.

The Blue Jackets will be mostly healthy when the play-in round begins, maybe as healthy as they’ve been all season. What’s your biggest question mark heading into this tournament?

AP: Well, my biggest question is the Blue Jackets’ goaltending, but not a question of “do they have the goaltending to win?” The question, to me, is who gets the first nod when the games start counting?

Joonas Korpisalo was clearly the guy at the start of the season, but Elvis certainly took advantage of Korpisalo’s injury to show what he can do. Despite his rocky start, he’s been one of the best goaltenders in the NHL this season. When last we saw the Blue Jackets, both goaltenders were healthy and Merzlikins had just led them to a hugely important win in Vancouver.

So, tough call by the coaches. A five-game series doesn’t leave much time to let both guys get comfortable. So we may get an initial indication of this organization’s long-term decision making in net with the decision they make here.

TR: Sergei Bobrovsky is gone, but the answer remains the same. It’s goaltending. The Blue Jackets will have to rely on two goalies, Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo, with no NHL playoff experience.

The good news is recent Cup winners have lifted the trophy with playoff neophytes in goal. Matt Murray and Jordan Binnington come to mind. But until either Merzlikins or Korpisalo prove they can win a round, it remains a big question mark for the Blue Jackets.

The other issue is which goalie deserves the nets in the play-in round? The 2010 Philadelphia Flyers eschewed convention and reached the Final by using multiple goalies throughout the playoffs. But they are an exception. The Blue Jackets need their Game 1 starter to seize the opportunity and remain in the nets for the duration of their time in the playoffs.

If I told you the Blue Jackets will have a healthy and engaged Josh Anderson ready for the matchup with the Leafs, how does that impact your prediction on the series?

TR: Anyone who saw Anderson’s impact against the Lightning last spring in a first-round sweep knows the answer. There are few players in the league with his size, snarl and skill set. The Maple Leafs are a finesse team. They don’t want Anderson hammering them on the forecheck and buzzing around their net.

If the full-bodied, speedy winger is healthy and can set aside any lingering issues with the organization, Anderson could have a major impact on the series. He had a forgettable regular season with just 26 appearances and one goal. But if his shoulder and mindset are right, Anderson could remind the league why he’s worthy of a big contract in the near future.

AP: Honestly, it changes everything, specifically against the Leafs. Anderson’s ability to forecheck and intimidate would give Toronto’s defense fits, maybe even to a larger extent than he affected the first-round series last season against Tampa Bay. He can be such an overwhelming force.

Getting into the lineup is a big hurdle. He had shoulder surgery in March that required a 4-6 month recovery, which puts him at mid-July to mid-September for his return. It’s probably only fair to wonder how engaged (your word) he’ll be, too, given all that’s transpired. He’s an RFA this coming off-season (whenever the hell that might be) and many assume he’ll be traded unless he agrees to a long-term extension.

Where are Anderson’s head and heart when this resumes? If he’s locked in, I like the Blue Jackets’ chances to do some damage.

What do you feel good about, and what do you worry about, if you’re the Blue Jackets getting ready to play the Leafs?

AP: If I’m Columbus, I feel good about the fact that defense and checking usually prevail in the playoffs, especially against such a lopsided team as Toronto.

For the Blue Jackets, the approach here will be very similar to last season against Tampa Bay, except the Leafs don’t have the same forward depth, they have a lesser defense and a lower-tier goalie than the Lightning, too.

My concern, if I’m the Blue Jackets, is that scoring goals and creating scoring chances come naturally to some players, and the Leafs certainly have those types of players. Toronto’s top two lines can be deadly dangerous if they come out of the layoff in top form.

The Blue Jackets, meanwhile, have to work so hard to score goals. Any slump from the start of the qualifying round could be the end of it.

TR: You have an experienced and deep coaching staff that has two months to get ready for an opponent that’s had little playoff success. John Tortorella savors these kinds of opportunities when the opponent is garnering most of the attention because of its high-end talent. Torts will have the club prepared. We’ve already mentioned the lack of experience in goal is a concern. The other worry is scoring. The Blue Jackets finished the regular season 28th at 2.57 goals per game. The Leafs were third in this category at 3.39. In a short series following a long layoff, the games could be shootouts. Do the Blue Jackets have enough firepower to survive those early games before the checking catches up to the offense?

(Photo of Josh Anderson: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)