Simulating the 2020 A’s: Gaining ground in the West but feeling wild-card heat

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 14: Mark Canha #20 of the Oakland Athletics celebrates the solo home run by Matt Olson #28 of the Oakland Athletics in the sixth inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington on September 14, 2019 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
By Melissa Lockard
Jun 5, 2020

Given everything that has been happening in the real world over the past two weeks since we last checked in on the simulated A’s of The Athletic Alternate Universe (TAAU), I debated whether to even write this column. There is nothing less important right now than a make-believe team playing a make-believe game. But I’ve found that in my darkest moments, sometimes a little make-believe offers a respite that can be helpful for getting through the day. So it is in that spirit that I offer this recap.

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The TAAU season is entering the home stretch and during the two weeks since our last recap, we have passed the simulated July 31 trade deadline and moved deep into the August schedule. True to their history over the past 20 years, the A’s have come on strong in the second half. A 12-6 run has pulled the A’s within 2 1/2 games of the first-place Astros, whose simulated injury list alone could compete for the second wild-card spot:

Unfortunately, the A’s don’t play the Astros again this season, so they are going to need to rely on help from their “friends” as well as their own play to pull out a division title. (Sidenote: How does MLB come up with a schedule that doesn’t have the A’s and Astros facing off after July 19?)

The A’s do play the Angels seven times over the final week and a half of the season, and those games could make or break the A’s postseason hopes, as the Angels have pulled within a game of the A’s for the first wild-card spot. Cleveland has pulled into a tie with Kansas City for the AL Central lead and is also gaining ground in the wild-card race. So even as the A’s have played well, they have lost some of their wild-card cushion.

I made one trade on deadline day (which I will outline below), but ultimately the players who have been in the clubhouse most of the season are the players who are going to have to pull the A’s into the postseason. It should be a “wild” last six weeks of the TAAU season. Hold on to your hats …

(As always, a reminder that you can follow along with our simulated season on this site. There you will find box scores, standings, player stats and more information on all 30 TAAU MLB organizations.)

Game results since our last check-in:

July 30 — 14-11 win vs. Rangers (Franklin Barreto hits two of A’s four homers)

July 31 — 4-3 win vs. Rangers (A’s pull out win in Drew Smyly’s debut)

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Aug. 1 — 7-1 win vs. Rangers (Frankie Montas cruises through 6 1/3)

Aug. 2 — 8-1 win vs. Rangers (Jesús Luzardo strikes out 10)

Aug. 3 — 11-4 win vs. Mariners (A’s collect 12 hits, 11 walks)

Aug. 4 — 14-3 win vs. Mariners (10-run 7th powers A’s)

Aug. 6 — 9-7 loss vs. Yankees (Winning streak snapped at 8)

Aug. 7 — 5-4 loss vs. Yankees (Late rally not enough to erase early deficit)

Aug. 8 — 2-1 win vs. Yankees (Montas, Liam Hendriks combine in gem)

Aug. 9 — 5-3 win vs. Yankees (Chris Bassitt Ks 11 to even series)

Aug. 10 — 4-3 win vs. Nationals (2-run rally in 9th secures thrilling win)

Aug. 11 — 8-1 loss vs. Nationals (Smyly allows 4 homers in loss)

Aug. 14 — 2-1 win vs. Red Sox (Matt Olson, Khris Davis homers all Luzardo needs)

Aug. 15 — 6-2 loss vs. Red Sox (Matt Chapman homers twice in loss)

Aug. 16 — 17-6 win vs. Red Sox (Mark Canha, Davis each drive in 6)

Aug. 17 — 4-0 loss vs. Cleveland (A’s manage just two hits)

Aug. 18 — 6-1 win vs. Cleveland (Ramón Laureano homers, has three hits)

Aug. 19 — 6-2 loss vs. Cleveland (Solid Luzardo outing wasted)

Party like it’s 1990: A’s and Giants make a trade

This spring, the A’s and Giants broke an unusual streak when the Giants sent right-hander Burch Smith across the Bay in exchange for cash considerations. It was the first trade of a 40-man roster player from one Bay Area team to the other since the A’s and Giants swapped Darren Lewis for Ernie Riles on Dec. 4, 1990.

An actual trade involving more than one player between longtime friends and former work colleagues David Forst and Farhan Zaidi seems inevitable, but as fake GM stand-ins, Grant Brisbee and I beat them to the punch with a swap that should help both franchises: left-hander Drew Smyly goes to the A’s for outfielder Luis Barrera.

The simulated A’s pitching staff has been volatile all season, especially in the back end of the rotation and the middle part of the bullpen. I addressed the bullpen in a June trade with the Orioles, acquiring lefty reliever Tanner Scott. Scott has been as effective as I could have hoped for, posting a 1.71 ERA and a 26:9 K:BB in 21 innings. Unfortunately, he came down with a simulated strained abdominal muscle in mid-July and has been slow to recover. Meanwhile, rookie A.J. Puk had seen his ERA rise to 5.40 as a starter and the game was indicating that he was “exhausted.” Starter-turned-long relievers Mike Fiers and Mike Leake have continued to be mediocre, so neither represented an upgrade over Puk if I swapped one in for him in the rotation.

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So I set out to acquire a starter who could be an upgrade over Puk with the intention of moving Puk into the bullpen, where he can replace the hard-throwing left-handed presence of Scott, at least until Scott recovers (note: at this point, it looks as though Scott won’t be deemed healthy by the game until rosters expand). I inquired about a number of starters, but everyone asked for either Grant Holmes or Daulton Jefferies in return. Holmes has, by far, been the best starter in the Triple-A Las Vegas rotation this simulated season, and while Jefferies is out for the TAAU season with a simulated meniscus tear, I felt that after trading James Kaprielian and Parker Dunshee earlier in the season, I couldn’t afford to lose Holmes and Jefferies too.

I have admittedly dipped into the A’s outfield depth chart during this TAAU season while making trades, having already dealt Greg Deichmann and Lazaro Armenteros. But the A’s are overflowing with outfield talent at the moment, so I didn’t mind tapping into that well again. Brisbee initially rebuffed my offer of Barrera for Smyly, but eventually came around and the deal was made as a one-for-one swap.

Saying goodbye to Barrera is a tough one because I love his overall toolset. (My only solace is that the simulated version of me will get to write about Barrera now that he’s in the Giants’ chain.) He was initially slow to develop after signing for $450,000 in 2012 out of Venezuela, but over the past three seasons, he has raised his profile significantly. A left-handed hitter and thrower, Barrera is arguably the top baserunner from first-to-third in the A’s organization. His 2019 season was cut short by a right shoulder injury, but in the 54 games he played for Double-A Midland, he had 11 triples and hit .321. He is also one of the best defensive outfielders in the A’s system, with a throwing arm that rivals Ramón Laureano’s.

Smyly is a rental, but he had been one of the steadiest starters in the TAAU National League going into the trade with a 138 ERA+ and a 3.46 ERA in 104 innings. He hasn’t wowed in the early going since the trade, allowing 14 runs in 20 innings, but after a debut start against the Rangers, he’s faced three postseason contenders in the Yankees, Washington and Cleveland, so I’ll cut him some slack. His last start against Cleveland was a six-inning, one-run effort.

Who’s hot: Khris Davis heating up

It was looking pretty grim for the A’s DH in May and June when he posted OPSs of .673 and .512, respectively, but Davis has looked like the Davis of old over the past six weeks of TAAU action. In July, he hit .337/.402/.533 with five home runs. In August, he’s batting .316/.409/.561 with four longballs. For a stretch of four games in early August, his season average was even at his customary .247, but he’s now pushed that up to .252.

Matt Olson failed to reach double-digits in a month for home runs in July for the first time all season (he hit eight), but he’s still on pace for 59 home runs and already has 46 through Aug. 19. He’s not just hitting for power, either, as he leads the team with a .276 BA and 70 walks.

Franklin Barreto cooled off some in August, but he’s still been a revelation since taking over the everyday second base job from Tony Kemp. On the season, he has a .308/.381/.537 line with 18 home runs and 71 RBIs in just 95 games played.

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New acquisition Christian Walker has an .876 OPS in 16 games since joining the team, while Robbie Grossman has 10 hits in 26 at-bats in August. He has a .924 OPS against right-handed pitching for the season.

After homering seven times in July, Mark Canha already has four home runs and a 1.006 OPS in 16 August games. He is batting .255/.376/.524 for the season and has been the A’s third-best hitter behind Olson and Barreto.

Rookie Jesús Luzardo continues to impress. His ERA is 3.37 in 160 1/3 innings with a 9.5 K/9. But the most striking number is his walk-rate, which is a minuscule 1.8. He’s had only one month all season with an ERA at 4.00 or higher (and that was May, when it was exactly 4.00).

Sean Manaea has also been a strike-throwing machine, with a 1.9 BB/9 in 158 innings. His ERA is 4.56, but he’s been worth 3.0 WAR, which tells you how much this game skews towards offense.

The always steady Yusmeiro Petit has been the quiet MVP of the bullpen. He has a 2.98 ERA in 42 1/3 innings and, much to the benefit of the blood pressure for manager Bob Melvin, he’s only walked four batters all season. On the flip side, Jake Diekman has walked 27 in 27 2/3 innings, but his 45 strikeouts over that stretch have kept the damage to a minimum (2.28 ERA).

Next up: Rosters expand

Rosters will be expanding between now and our next TAAU update. The A’s haven’t historically loaded up on September call-ups, but I’m going to be aggressive with adding to the roster with a young team that will surely be feeling the effects of the 162-game grind. The aforementioned Holmes will be getting the call out of the Las Vegas rotation. Daniel Gossett and Lou Trivino are currently on the simulated Las Vegas injured list, but familiar faces J.B. Wendelken, Daniel Mengden and Burch Smith will join the pitching staff.

Behind the plate, Austin Allen and his 29 home runs will return to the big leagues, as will Jonah Heim once he recovers from a simulated minor back strain. Infielder Sheldon Neuse (.378 BA) and outfielders Seth Brown (.304 BA), Mark Payton (.343 BA) and Skye Bolt (.364 BA) will also join in on the fun. I’m tempted to bring up shortstop Nick Allen, who is batting .339 since I promoted him to Las Vegas from Double-A Midland, as a defensive replacement, but haven’t made a final decision on that one yet.

(Photo: Richard Rodriguez / Getty Images)

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Melissa Lockard

Melissa Lockard is a senior editor and writer for The Athletic. She edits MLB content and focuses her writing on MLB prospects and draft coverage, with a particular focus on the Oakland A’s and San Francisco Giants. Before joining The Athletic, she covered baseball for a variety of outlets, including Scout.com, 2080baseball.com and FoxSports. She is the founder of OaklandClubhouse.com. Follow Melissa on Twitter @melissalockard