When the Los Angeles Angels passed on shortstop Ed Howard with the 10th pick of the 2020 MLB Draft, the Cubs knew they had their man.
Other organizations had assumed that once Howard slipped out of the top 10, rumors of an overslot deal with a team picking in the 30s must have been true.
The Cubs, who selected Howard with the 16th pick Wednesday night, had been keeping quiet about just how interested they were in Howard, one of a handful of prospects that the team had zeroed in on over their last 10 days of meetings.
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UCLA’s Garrett Mitchell had long been linked with the Cubs and was certainly high on their wish list, but as Howard slipped, the Cubs’ “best-case scenario,” as their VP of scouting Dan Kantrovitz put it, was within reach.
But what was it about Howard, the Mount Carmel star who found national fame as part of the 2014 Jackie Robinson West squad in the Little League World Series, that has the Cubs claiming he could be a star? After speaking with numerous talent evaluators around baseball, we can paint a clearer picture of Howard’s enticing potential.
The glove
You would be hard-pressed to find scouts who aren’t impressed by Howard’s defensive ability. Talent evaluators agreed that it’s hard to find a prep shortstop of this caliber at that point in the draft.
What makes Howard such a strong defender? Scouts point to his hands. Howard may not have elite range, but if he can get to the ball, he will make the play. In today’s game, with teams knowing how to position their defenders better than ever before, some believe he’ll grade out as an elite shortstop. The Cubs believe they selected the best defender in the draft.
There were reports that Howard had a sore shoulder, downgrading his arm. But the Cubs, who had him visit Wrigley Field twice over the fall and winter, see no long-term issues. If they did, they certainly wouldn’t have invested the 16th overall pick on him. Another organization high on Howard agreed that they had zero medical reservations about him. Howard has a plus arm and that only adds to him being the complete package on defense.
The bat
“The first thing that stands out about Ed offensively is his ability to make consistent hard contact,” Kantrovitz said. “He’s somebody that we think is going to control the zone and limit his strikeouts and maybe have some walks go along with that. We think he’s going to develop some gap power and potentially even some over-the-fence power. But right now, we see him as just having a really nice, sweet, compact swing that at some point we think is going to translate well to pro baseball.”
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Howard’s approach is mature for his age, and he has room to improve in this area with proper development. But hitting has always been a very difficult area to predict with high schoolers. Albert Almora Jr. is a prime example of a very talented player whose approach has yet to fully mature. His elite contact-making skills overwhelmed a need to be more selective and swing at his pitch. Almora hasn’t shown he can hit with power on a consistent basis in the majors.
But there are plenty of other examples in the Cubs system of position players who have both quickly or methodically taken steps forward. Talent evaluators around baseball point to the Cubs as a great example of an organization that does a good job of maximizing their hitters’ abilities.
There are safer picks like 2018 first-rounder Nico Hoerner, whom the Cubs were able to tweak ever so slightly in order to take his consistent hard contact and make sure he elevated the ball more frequently. That has helped his gap-to-gap and over-the-fence power materialize. A wrist injury last year slowed Hoerner’s progress, but it was a development that other organizations weren’t sure would happen. It’s why Hoerner was available late in the first round of the 2018 draft and why he’s already a big-leaguer.
There were scouts who were infatuated with Brennen Davis prior to the 2018 draft, but it was always expected that his offensive development would be a very slow burn. Hitting coordinator Chris Valaika was among those who helped unlock Davis’ vast potential on offense. Even with the Cubs giving him an aggressive assignment at full-season Low-A ball in South Bend, the 19-year-old Davis thrived in 50 games, slashing an impressive .305/.381/.525.
You can go all the way back to the development of Javy Báez, who could have easily been the great defender who went to the plate and became an automatic strikeout. While he still has plenty of swing and miss in his game, the Cubs helped him tone it down enough over the years to fully utilize his elite power and develop into an MVP-level performer.
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Howard won’t have the swing-and-miss concern as he’s viewed as a strong contact hitter. But the separator will be whether he can tap into his power. The Cubs don’t envision a dramatic swing change to get this done, but this is where the player development staff, like Valaika and new director of hitting Justin Stone, will be key.
“Their hitting coaches in the organization, I think they’re really good,” Howard said. “I think they can help me a lot. I feel like I can improve everywhere, all sides of the game. I think that organization is going to do a great job to help me get on the right path to play in the big leagues. I’m comfortable with them. I believe in them, I trust them and I feel like they trust in me. I think it’s a great fit and I’m just ready to get going.”
The Cubs’ player development staff will have to help Howard develop a better understanding of who he is as a player so he can better grasp his strengths and ability to get to his power. Howard has an athletic swing that gets to the zone quickly and has shown an ability to maintain his balance on off-speed pitches. His offensive improvement last summer is just one more data point that shows he can develop and has the ability to properly implement coaching advice.
But how he develops his power tool will be key. If he can continue to mature, both physically and mentally, learn to really use his strength and find that power stroke — perhaps getting to a plus level — he has a chance to be a star. Even if he doesn’t fully actualize in this area, with continued steady — and possibility slower, as was expected with Davis — development in other areas, he’s still seen as a quality everyday talent.
The intangibles
Kantrovitz pointed to Howard wearing his glove during their pre-draft Zoom interview as more evidence for his love of the game. Howard said that’s just who he is.
But that love for the game goes beyond a nice anecdote. Scouts who followed Howard during the travel circuit last summer said his passion for baseball was obvious. It didn’t matter if he was dealing with scorching heat and humidity at the Player Development Pipelines series in Florida or more temperate climes at the Area Code Games, Howard always brought his A-game.
Through observing him in-game along with personal interactions, scouts described a player with elite makeup and unrelenting drive. Kantrovitz spoke of Howard’s work ethic and drive, which is clearly a point of pride.
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“I feel like I deserve to be the best in the draft with all the work I put in,” Howard said. “A lot of people don’t know about the early mornings when I’m up there lifting and training. I’m just glad it’s getting acknowledged.”
Next steps
Despite losing his senior year of high school baseball due to COVID-19, Howard has continued to work regularly to up his game. But what’s next?
“If I have to play a nine-inning game tomorrow, I feel like I could,” Howard said. “And that’s just the way I’m going about it. I don’t know if things are going to open back up. I don’t know when we’ll be back playing. But I do know, whenever things do open back up, I’ll be ready.”
A minor-league season is all but lost for 2020. But when baseball returns, every team is expected to have a taxi squad, which could include top prospects teams want to continue to develop. A player like catcher Miguel Amaya makes perfect sense as someone who was likely going to start the season at Double A, is already on the 40-man and could use more high-level development. But would that be too aggressive of an assignment for Howard? The initial responses to that question were yes, probably, but there are also still many unknowns with how those taxi squads will be used, so nothing should be ruled out just yet.
What could make more sense is Howard getting some playing time in an extended fall league. Nothing has been determined yet, but there are hopes to have a longer Arizona Fall League this year, perhaps two, with another at a second location. A player like Howard would certainly make sense for one of those rosters.
A system on the rise
Ultimately, the Cubs continue to bring talent into their system. Along with Howard, there’s Davis, Hoerner and Amaya, with top international free agent shortstop Christian Hernandez expected to join the fold later this summer. Add in that the Cubs signed two IFA catchers last summer (Ronnier Quintero and Brayan Altuve) and a shortstop (Kevin Made), and drafted a raw but talented high school catcher (Ethan Hearn), and it’s clear the Cubs have focused on amassing depth and collecting high-end, up-the-middle talent. Along with lefty pitching prospect Brailyn Marquez (and a handful of other intriguing pitchers), the Cubs system may not be where it was six years ago, but it’s once again on the rise.
There’s a lot of raw talent in the group and a lot of expectations for a revamped player development department. But with Howard, the Cubs have someone in their system who many around the game believe has the potential to be a game-changer. In Howard’s eyes, it’s only a matter of when he arrives at Wrigley Field, not if.
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“I put in a lot of work,” Howard said. “I really feel confident in my preparation. For me, the preparation builds the confidence. Depending on how I progress, the time it’ll take me to get to the league is to be determined. I know one thing for sure, I’ll work hard. I like the Derek Jeter quote where he says, ‘There’s no excuse for anybody to work harder than you.’ That’s truly how I feel. I’ll continue to work hard, play the game, play my game and have fun. We’ll see how it plays out.”
(Photo: Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via AP)
