Predicting the unpredictable: MLS is Back will be a test of priorities, depth

Written by Sam Stejskal, Felipe Cardenas, Matt Pentz, Jeff Rueter 

Tournament draws are often absurd. They’re the realm of Sepp Blatter, supermodels, out-of-place musical performances and ping pong balls. Lots and lots of ping pong balls. 

Normally, though, we have to wait for the draw to actually begin for things to get weird. 

Not on Thursday. Not in Major League Soccer. As it often does, the league spit in the face of any and all global footballing norms for the draw for its “MLS is Back Tournament,” which will begin in Orlando early next month. When the tournament was announced on Wednesday, Atlanta, LAFC, Orlando, Real Salt Lake, Seattle and Toronto were announced as the headliners for six groups in Florida. The remaining 20 teams were to be drawn into those six groups on Thursday. 

Sounds straightforward enough, right? Wrong. This is MLS, a League of Chaos. No matter how serious the league tries to be, absurdity is its defining feature. Business as usual is… unusual. 

And so it fits that, a couple of hours before the draw was scheduled to begin, the Miami Herald broke news that Inter Miami had already been placed in Orlando’s group and that the two Florida teams would play the opening match in this Florida Man of a soccer tournament. MLS confirmed the news in an announcement shortly before the draw. Why they waited until Thursday to do so isn’t exactly clear; There’s nothing wrong with wanting Miami and Orlando to open up the tournament. We’re actually kind of into it. But pretending on Wednesday that Thursday’s affair would be a full, normal draw when it was never going to be was strange, even for MLS.  

That strangeness continued into the draw itself. These are weird, socially-distanced times we’re living in, and MLS had to make do under some difficult circumstances. In lieu of the typical FIFA glitz and glamour — you know, the giant stage and the Ballon d’Or winners — the draw was facilitated by former U.S. men’s national team forward Charlie Davies, broadcasting from what seemed to be the den of his house. The top seeds chose from a selection of ping pong balls with numbers that appeared to have been scrawled on by hand, at which point Charlie cracked them open, fished out the fortune-cookie-like notes within, and held them up to the webcam of his computer. Toronto FC general manager Ali Curtis wore a suit, and looked keenly aware to have shown up overdressed. Los Angeles FC sent a supporter instead of a team exec.

This isn’t to knock the production. Not even a little. The show was fun! And in the end, that’s what this is all about. Fun. Sports are entertainment, and this draw was, at a bare minimum, entertaining. It was also weird. Really weird. And really, really on-brand for MLS.  

Without further ado, we gathered a roundtable of The Athletic soccer writers to break down the draw in full — from the comedic elements to the more serious business of who will emerge from Central Florida on August 11th as MLS is Back Tournament champions, with the CONCACAF Champions League spot that title confers. 

Strongest group/weakest group

Rueter: Alright, guys. We know the groups. We’ve had some time to process Orlando City, which finished second-to-last in the East last year, being a “seeded” team in this tournament. Which group is strongest, and can we agree that Group A is the weakest?

Pentz: All the East groups seem pretty cushy, though maybe that’s my adopted west coast bias. For strongest, I think there’s an obvious choice: Group F. You have the LA teams, both of which were considered legit MLS Cup contenders. Then there’s Portland, which I consider a real threat to win this whole thing, due to its style of play. Even Houston could be a tricky out in a format like this — they’ve got the speed to play on the break, and anyone that’s been to Houston in summer knows that they’re not going to be as bothered by the swampy conditions of Florida in July.

Stejskal: Agree with Matt on Group F. That’s three of the biggest, best teams in the West; an easy choice for Group of Death. Also agree that Group A — the Florida group — looks like the weakest. Philly is strong, but Orlando has a weak roster and Miami, Chicago and Nashville are completely unproven. Even New York City FC, the strongest on-paper team in this group, are breaking in a new coach and dealing with the uncertainty that comes with that.

Rueter: It isn’t the strongest group, but I think Group D will be the hardest to predict. All four teams fit that standard Western Conference “the team is the star” mentality of corn-fed, defensively sound soccer. The coaches (Peter Vermes, Freddy Juarez, Adrian Heath, and Robin Fraser) all have experience in knockout tournaments in MLS and beyond both as players and coaches. Two made the playoffs in 2019, while Colorado came damn close to crashing the party. Sporting KC fell well below expectations in 2019, but they have talent, even with Felipe Gutierrez out for the season. Each has a weak spot, too — Minnesota never addressed its playmaking responsibilities after trading Darwin Quintero and had planned to manage Ike Opara and Ozzie Alonso’s workloads this year, SKC’s core didn’t get much younger, RSL’s attack is shaky at best and Colorado is wholly unproven as a unit. With the group games counting toward whatever the 2020 regular season ends up being, there won’t be any bad clashes.

Cardenas: It’s difficult to predict or even understand what the purpose is of a six-team group, but one thing I will say for Group A is that there are no clear favorites. That group is wide open. I’m stuck between Group E and Group F as the strongest. In both cases, some decent teams with some good players and elevated expectations could go home after the group stage. Atlanta United and LAFC will likely prioritize their respective rivalry matches, earn maximum points then rest players before the knockout round. I like Inter Miami’s chances of advancing deep into the tournament. They’re familiar with the Florida weather and while their roster is still being built, Diego Alonso’s men have shown that they can press and counter effectively. Plus, Julián Carranza is now fully fit.

What are teams’ priorities?

Stejskal: I don’t hate the Miami shout, if for no other reason than I could see Alonso really telling his team to go for it. Which brings me to my larger point: To me, this tournament really comes down to priorities. Which clubs, and which coaches, are going to prioritize winning the damn thing? Which teams really want to qualify for CCL, and which will be content with just getting out of Orlando healthy? Which are going to want to use these games to build a cohesive style, and which will be content with creating some basic tactical building blocks ahead of the potential return to full action later in the summer? I feel like the answers to those questions will inform a lot of what we see at Disney.

Cardenas: That’s a good point, Sam. One could argue that every team in this tournament has different priorities, not only for this tournament, but if and when the regular season resumes. A team like Atlanta United must qualify for the CONCACAF Champions League every season, because their front office has been adamant about improving their standing at the international level. Additionally, every club’s margin for error in earning a CCL spot has been significantly reduced. Single-elimination playoffs mean that it’s easy to miss out on MLS Cup because of one subpar performance, and the status of this year’s U.S. Open Cup is still up in the air. The bigger clubs have to go for the automatic CCL berth. Teams like FC Cincinnati, FC Dallas and Nashville SC,on the other hand, should prioritize group play in order to improve their chances of qualifying for the MLS playoffs.

Pentz: I feel particularly well versed on this particular topic, given how many conversations about priorities and depth I’ve had over the years with Sounders GM Garth Lagerwey, who gives this type of stuff a lot of thought even in the normal times. Seattle has given less importance to the Open Cup in recent seasons, much to the chagrin of some of the original fan base. But it does make sense, given the incentives. For some of the bigger teams, it’s basically nice if you make a little run and then start taking it seriously around the semis. I figured this might be similar — if you survive the group stage, cool, go for it. If not, whatever, no harm done.

The Champions League spot is the wild card here. It’s basically a shortcut into the competition that the Sounders and other clubs like them prize most. That might add a bit of juice to the knockout round matchups.

In terms of how priorities play out in a specific group, though, Group B is interesting in that every other team could use a boost of positive momentum: Dallas, to prove they can play with the league’s best; San Jose, to prove last year’s playoff non-qualification was a fluke; Vancouver, just in general. As wonky as this format is, winning it all would be a real accomplishment for all of these teams.

Rueter: Group C is one that stands out to me in this sense. Awarding a CCL spot to the winner of the Orlando tournament now matters to all 26 teams, as Canadian clubs have another avenue to the continental clash. Toronto hasn’t been a team which takes tournaments lightly, whether it’s an MLS Cup run, a CCL push or the Canadian Championship. Montreal may see it as a chance to build greater cohesion under Thierry Henry, after getting 4 points from their first two games of the season. D.C. United may need to find its mojo after losing Wayne Rooney and Luciano Acosta in the offseason. As for New England, it’s hard to imagine Bruce Arena taking this lightly.

Stejskal: I feel like it’s very easy to imagine Bruce Arena taking this lightly, but I digress. 

You can listen to all of Bruce Arena’s champagne-infused press conference here http://t.co/eLCIU8jBKT pic.twitter.com/UZX0GMCFk9

— Jeremiah Oshan (@JeremiahOshan) December 8, 2014

Rueter: Up until the most recent men’s World Cup qualification cycle, though, Arena was known as a knockout specialist. Usually when approaching competitions like this, we talk about “tournament teams.” These are deep, balanced rosters with a healthy amount of veteran savvy, a necessary injection of youth to push the old guard to perform and a track record of success. To that end, the Columbus Crew strikes me as a side which can navigate the format well. Caleb Porter will never shed the ghosts of the 2012 Olympic qualifying cycle, but his track record at Akron and with the Portland Timbers established him as a quality knockout coach. He brought back old Portland friends Darlington Nagbe and Fanendo Adi in the offseason, and the Crew are in their second season under Porter. They shouldn’t have rust. Plus, wouldn’t there be some poetic justice in Columbus — the team nearly ripped out of town for Austin at an owner’s whim — winning the most MLS competition imaginable? 

Dark horses and depth

Stejskal: The more I think about this, the more I keep coming back to Colorado. As one of the worst teams in the league for what feels like the better part of the last decade, the Rapids have a ton to prove. Desire shouldn’t be an issue. Other factors in their favor: Familiarity with head coach Robin Fraser, who had a good deal of success after taking over down the stretch in 2019, some decent talent all over the field and a relatively young group, an important factor considering the tight schedule and the likelihood that soft-tissue injuries will play a massive role in this competition.

A couple of other non-headliner teams I’m really interested in: Cincinnati and Nashville. They’re no one’s idea of favorites, but I’m curious if one or both will end up throwing caution to the wind and completely going for it. Neither will be expected to do much in a full regular season. But in a tournament format, both could theoretically make some noise. Nashville should have a good shot to advance out of a weak Group A. Cincy will have a harder time coming out of Group E with Atlanta, Red Bull and Columbus, but I could see Jaap Stam coming out with a bunker-and-counter strategy throughout the tournament, then using that as a potential foundation to build off of back in Ohio. No one is going to be sharp in Orlando; sitting deep, forcing teams wide and daring them to beat you through the middle could be more effective than usual. Of course, neither Cincy nor Nashville have much depth, so…

Pentz: I’m also in on the Rapids as a dark horse. (Fraser and company sold me throughout a visit to their preseason camp back in February, which now feels like a million years ago.) I could see the Whitecaps also going all-in on having a strong showing. Marc Dos Santos has been very bullish on the state of his long rebuild, and this is a golden opportunity to show some tangible progress. Lack of depth would be my concern with both of these teams, too, given the lack of conditioning and heat, but still, I’m intrigued. 

Cardenas: How do we define depth in MLS? I would argue that there isn’t a club in this league that is truly deep. Even the big clubs like LAFC and Atlanta United rely heavily on their star players. LAFC would lose so much without Carlos Vela in the lineup. And in Atlanta’s case, they’ll be without Josef Martinez with no comparable replacement. Inter Miami manager Diego Alonso told reporters on Wednesday that he believes the Orlando tournament will favor the clubs with the most depth. So, that would presumably reduce the chances of both expansion sides. But in the end, depth will be determined by how each coach manages his roster and the five allotted substitutions. Rest and recovery will outweigh a deep bench.

Stejskal: I agree… mostly. The bulk of MLS teams are rather thin. I do think LAFC are relatively deep, and even decently equipped to handle the tournament without Vela. Adama Diomande and Bradley Wright-Phillips are quality strikers, and neither is in their first-choice XI. In midfield, Bob Bradley gets to choose from three of Mark-Anthony Kaye, Latif Blessing, Eduard Atuesta, Francisco Ginella and former Ecuador Under-20 international Jose Cifuentes for his midfield three. In the back, Eddie Segura, Tristan Blackmon, Danilo Silva and Dejan Jakovic are all capable center backs, Jordan Harvey has a lot of miles, but he’s steady, and Diego Palacios is intriguing. Reported new signing Andy Najar might have something left, too.

That depth could be very important, too. The biggest question looming over this entire tournament is whether or not Carlos Vela will play. He’s skipped out on tournaments in the past, having essentially declined to go to the World Cup with Mexico in 2014.  His wife is pregnant. Is he going to want to leave her at home in Los Angeles to go play in this tournament? He might not. But even if he doesn’t, a front-three of Diego Rossi, Brian Rodriguez and Diomande would be pretty daunting, should LAFC decide to truly push for the tournament. 

Rueter: Any last thoughts before we dive into our ironclad predictions?

Final thoughts

Pentz: So whether by coincidence or unseen dark forces, the draw sure did end up with a lot of narrative-laden rivalry games. El Trafico, obviously, will be a headliner. Toronto and Montreal will battle for Canadian supremacy in Group C. Atlanta and the Red Bulls for real do not like one another. A little bit of bad blood and shared history could be crucial to both get the adrenaline going and boost TV ratings — especially for those odd 9 a.m. ET kicks we’ll be getting.

Another that jumped out at me was Salt Lake-Kansas City. That’s been one of the most underrated rivalries in MLS for years, even if it doesn’t geographically make a lot of sense. The mutual dislike stems from a preseason game that turned into a brawl at the beginning of the decade, and it got me thinking: might Disney’s Wide World of Sports complex be a breeding ground for a couple of new, odd inter-conference feuds?

All these matchups do feel a little “Patrick-Ewing-to-the-Knicks” suspicious, though. Am I being paranoid or are these groups a little bit too conveniently juicy? Even keeping Seattle and Portland apart felt like the one necessary sacrifice to justify all the rest.

Cardenas: Matt, don’t call it El Tráfico. 

Stejskal: Felipe, don’t not call it El Tráfico. 

And Matt (and everyone on Twitter), take off the tin-foil hat. The draw was split by conference. The Galaxy had a 1-in-3 chance of landing in the same group as LAFC. We point to New York and Atlanta being in the same group as “convenient.” Wouldn’t it have been more convenient to get the Red Bulls in with NYCFC? And what of Portland and Seattle? That’s one of the top two rivalries in MLS. Why not rig it so the Sounders and Timbers play each other? 

Predictions

Rueter: Let’s land this plane. Who’s advancing out of each group (and which four 3-seeds are advancing), who makes the final and who’s planning a party with Mickey Mouse? Give me…

Final: Columbus vs. Portland. Porter reverses the result from MLS Cup 2015, winning MLS is Back for the Crew.

Pentz: I feel like making MLS predictions is a fool’s errand even in the best of times, but looking at these groups and these formats … I’ll be honest with you, I have no idea how this is going to go. They pay me actual money to follow this league closely, and this just seems so much like a crapshoot.

Still, on the off chance some of this ends up right, let’s take a shot for posterity: 

Final: Philadelphia vs. Sporting KC, with the Union becoming the first (hopefully only?) MLS is Back Tournament champion.

Cardenas: I’m not usually one to make tournament predictions, but I’ll play. 

Final: San Jose vs. Columbus, with Almeyda’s men lifting the trophy.

Stejskal: Diving right in… 

Final: LAFC vs. Philadelphia, a rematch of what might end up as the best match of 2020, with Bob Bradley and LAFC winning and taking a short, short trip to Disney World for a celebration parade (to the extent that one can even be had). 

(Top photo: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA TODAY Sports)