Editor’s note: When the NHL season was paused because of the pandemic, it created an ideal time for a tracking project focused on a core aspect of the 2019-20 Flyers’ identity: the forecheck. After rewatching all 69 regular-season games, tracking 2,161 forechecks at five-on-five and analyzing the data, The Athletic will present its findings in a series of articles.
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When the Philadelphia Flyers began training camp in September 2019, two forward prospects who had legitimate chances of making the roster stood above the rest of the youngsters at the Skate Zone in Voorhees, N.J.: 2017 first-round pick Morgan Frost and 2018 first-rounder Joel Farabee.
Neither made the club out of camp, but both would make their NHL debuts during the season. And when each debuted, he came with a distinct reputation: Farabee, called up just weeks into the season, was a high-hockey IQ, play-driving winger, known for relentless pursuit of the puck; Frost was a flashy, offensively oriented center whose style leaned more toward finesse and skill.
So despite the fact that Farabee is one year younger than Frost, it wasn’t a major shock to see the former end up with more NHL games in 2019-20 than the latter. After all, Farabee is a “do-the-little-things-right” type of forward who can play anywhere in the lineup, and Frost is a scorer who still needs to learn what he can and can’t get away with at the pro level, right?
On some level, those perceptions are true. Farabee’s versatility and slightly more gritty style make him a better fourth-line fit, at least in terms of the consensus view of what the role entails. And Frost graded out poorly by advanced defensive metrics such as RAPM and RelTM, so there’s some basis to the idea that he needs to clean up elements of his game.
But what about their forechecking, as measured by our 2019-20 tracking project? The results of Frost and Farabee might surprise you, especially considering their respective preseason reputations.
By the numbers
As we learned in Part 1 of the project’s findings, Farabee surprisingly did not grade out well by the metrics that measured forechecking effectiveness as the “first man in,” the F1. Frost’s results, due to the small sample — he participated in just 47 tracked reps as the F1 — were left out of that article, which focused on lineup regulars.
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But small sample or not, Frost’s forechecking results were flat-out fantastic. He didn’t just leave his fellow rookie far behind. He left every other Flyer in the dust. No matter the category — Recovery Percentage, Shots per Entry, Failed Exits Forced, Average Time Spent in Zone per Entry — Frost led the way.
Even the stats in which the regulars tended to regress to a common average — 10 of the 12 fit into a tight 12.50-to-13.30 window in average zone time per entry, for example — Frost’s results stand as extreme outliers. During his limited reps as the F1, the Flyers took apart the opposition.
So is Frost quietly an incredible forechecker at 20? Let’s dive deeper into the numbers and tape to find out.
Evaluating Frost’s forechecking
With such a small sample, it’s possible Frost’s metrics could have been inflated because of good luck. Maybe opponents made a few extra unforced passes, and his work as F1 had little to do with it. Or maybe the second wave of forecheckers did the heavy lifting on his shifts.
To prove or disprove these theories, I reviewed each of the 47 forechecks that Frost led and subjectively determined whether he played a major contributing role in the 27 retrievals. The verdict: On 19 of them, 70.37 percent, Frost was a driving force behind the forecheck’s success.
That might seem low. But crediting him with “just” 19 retrievals out of 47 would still give Frost a 40.43 percent Recovery Percentage, which tops the full-sample rates of Scott Laughton and Kevin Hayes. And there’s little doubt that both benefited from “lucky” forechecks in their overall numbers, just as Frost did. Even if Frost’s numbers were a little lucky in comparison to his peers — and there’s no proof that’s the case — even with adjustment, they’re extremely impressive.
In his brief time with the Flyers, Frost has done an excellent job as a first-man-in forechecker.
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Scouting Frost
In such a small sample, past results aren’t necessarily predictive of future prowess. Frost, 21, may have done well, but perhaps these were particularly effective shifts. Maybe he’s not the true-talent stellar forechecker our results hint he might be.
This is where tape study can be a massive help in identifying the specific ways Frost put up his results. If certain strengths recurred across his forechecks, perhaps he does have talent that can hold up in larger samples.
In Frost’s case, three main strengths popped up the most upon further review: pokechecking ability, skating explosiveness, and an ability to anticipate passes and routes.
It’s no secret that a quick stick is one of the hallmarks of Frost’s game. He showcased it on his first NHL goal, and continued to flash a lightning-quick release on his shots and creativity with his passes and dangles. Reviewing his forechecking, it appears that quick stick proves useful without the puck, too. Frost generally shied away from hitting on the forecheck (10.64 percent Hit Percentage), instead leaning heavily on pokechecks and deflections to disrupt possession. It worked.
Frost’s skating ability has long been a divisive topic among scouts and prospect watchers. Many observers have made the case Frost’s game lacks “pace,” meaning that he doesn’t play fast, particularly with the puck on his stick. Defenders argue he won “Fastest Skater” at a pre-draft top prospects game, and that he can turn on the jets when needed.
Both sides have points. Frost does have a tendency to slow the game down when he moves up ice, as he looks to make a creative play or feed a teammate the puck. It’s a fair critique: Frost will need to have more urgency with the puck through the middle of the ice if he wants to avoid being stripped from behind by backcheckers. But Frost is absolutely a plus skater, and it shows up regularly when he’s chasing down loose pucks. Suddenly, Frost has no incentive to “slow it down.” He’s simply trying to get to the puck or the opposing defenseman as quickly as possible. And at least this season, his ability to rapidly do so seemed to often catch opponents off guard. Frost gets in on the forecheck very fast.
In the above clips, pay attention to how quickly Frost closes the distance — and often overtakes entirely — the defenseman he is chasing down. It may not look high-effort, but make no mistake: He’s using plus speed to increase the effectiveness of his forechecking.
But Frost’s potential as a forechecker goes far beyond his physical attributes. His forechecking instincts appear to be high-end as well. Look closely at his actions on this play from November:
It doesn’t seem like much at first glance. But it would have been very easy for Frost to just follow the Vancouver defenseman around the net and try to provide back pressure. Instead, Frost alertly anticipates that the defenseman is going to circle the net, so he crosses in front of the goalie and puts himself right in between the puck carrier and his easiest potential outlet — the center low in the zone. Then, Frost attacks, putting just enough pressure on the defenseman with his stick to force an ill-advised clear that results in a Flyers recovery. That’s efficient forechecking in a nutshell.
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Frost was overpowered at times when trying to gain physical leverage — for example, by veteran top-pair defensemen such as Ryan Suter on this play — and his heavy reliance on the pokecheck sometimes worked against him. But the early returns hint that Frost has a knack for surprisingly effective forechecking.
What about Farabee?
Frost’s pre-NHL reputation didn’t appear to fit the mold of a plus forechecker, but it seems like he might be just that. One of the key strengths of Farabee’s game was supposed to be forechecking, but if anything, it was a weakness in 2019-20. What exactly is going on here?
Farabee, 20, is an interesting case, especially because he showed flashes of forechecking brilliance as a rookie. On two occasions, he directly engineered a Flyers goal through his relentless, always-in-attack-mode style of straight-ahead puck pressure. The raw potential to be an absolute demon as the F1 is there.
In reviewing tape of Farabee’s forechecks, two main issues appear to be keeping him from making plays like the above on a regular basis. Fortunately for Farabee and the Flyers, both are seemingly fixable (or at least addressable) over the long term.
For starters, Farabee’s skating stride lacks the kind of explosiveness that puts real pressure on defensemen looking to retrieve pucks in the corner. Frost already possesses the ability to pick up speed rapidly and close gaps with ease. Farabee can fly once he really gets going, but he can struggle to quickly reach the kind of extra gear that Frost can.
In the above video, even before Farabee takes a less-than-perfect route, he’s not picking up nearly enough ground on Florida defenseman MacKenzie Weegar. And when Farabee does have the theoretical angle to cut off Weegar behind the net, he’s just not quick enough and ends up having to trail Weegar in a doomed attempt to annoy him into turning over the puck.
The issue rears its head again in the above sequence, which is a simple “race to the spot” play that Farabee loses. It’s not by much, but it’s the difference between a recovery or at least a tie-up along the boards, and the worst possible forecheck outcome — a no-recovery, controlled-exit-to-controlled-entry transition for the other team.
Of course, Farabee could have salvaged the situation by tying up the Columbus defender after losing the race, which leads us to Farabee’s second forechecking weakness: He’s not yet strong enough to avoid being knocked around on the ice as he tries to chase down loose pucks.
The lack of burst and Farabee’s physical immaturity go hand in hand here. If he were a bit quicker, defensemen wouldn’t find it so easy to cut off his routes and knock him off his spot. But if he were more physically mature, he’d be able to more easily overcome the acceleration “weakness” by simply going right through opponents. Because he’s lacking a bit in both areas as an under-21-year-old forward, he can struggle to exert his authority on forechecks.
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The good news is that the raw tools remain for Farabee to eventually become not just a good forechecker, but a great one. Oskar Lindblom showed that a player can improve his skating explosiveness through hard work and proper training, and everyone expects the rail-thin Farabee to continue to fill out and become stronger as he ages. Whether he ultimately improves in both areas remains to be seen, but the potential is there for his forechecking “issues” to be resolved, and possibly soon.
Final observations
So what did we learn from the third round of tracking project findings?
1. Frost might be a really, really good forechecker
No Flyers forward graded out better as an F1 in 2019-20 than Frost, small sample notwithstanding. In every category, from Recovery Percentage to Combined Forecheck Success rate to Failed Exits forced, Frost led the pack.
2. Frost wasn’t just “lucky”
Even after removing all the forechecks in which he wasn’t a primary driver of the eventual recovery of the puck, Frost still had a higher Recovery Percentage than Laughton and Hayes. He was objectively quite good at this whole forechecking thing in 2019-20.
3. Frost’s pokechecking ability and deceptively explosive stride helped him most
Frost’s quick hands were immediately apparent when he had the puck on the attack. But those hands also allowed him to put constant pressure on opposing defensemen while on the forecheck, disrupting exit attempts without having to resort to physicality. Frost’s plus skating ability also helped him effectively close gaps and rapidly take away the time and space of puck carriers, often forcing them into difficult decisions.
4. Farabee’s weak points as a forechecker appear to be explosiveness and physical immaturity
Farabee’s forechecking ability has long been a strength of his game as he’s moved up the developmental ladder, but he didn’t grade out well in this project. Why? Even though he proved capable of the occasional “splash” play — hinting at his long-term upside in this area — his lack of standout quickness and his physical immaturity regularly hurt him when he tried to chase down loose pucks. It’s reasonable to expect he will improve in both areas as he gets older, which could help him blossom into the forechecker the Flyers believe he can become.
(Photo: Len Redkoles / NHLI via Getty Images)