No matter how successful the Chicago Fire were as a 1998 expansion club, or the Seattle Sounders were annually in the U.S. Open Cup, no MLS newcomer has made winning trophies of any kind such an immediate part of their identity as Atlanta United.
In their first three seasons, the Five Stripes won an MLS Cup, a U.S. Open Cup and a Campeones Cup. They have made the playoffs in each season of their existence. They are among the favorites in every competition they enter. That rapid rise to the top is unparalleled, and deserves the praise the club often gets.
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Yesterday, though, saw Atlanta United crash out of contention for a competition early for the first time in its relatively short history.
That’s life in a tournament format, where consecutive poor performances almost always spell certain doom. After an opening loss to the Red Bulls, Atlanta’s ugly 1-0 defeat against a much-maligned FC Cincinnati side was a rude awakening (literally, given the 9 a.m. ET kickoff) for a team viewed as a favorite to challenge for the CONCACAF Champions League spot awarded to the tournament winner. Instead, they’ll play against Columbus on Tuesday needing a miraculous goal differential swing for an outside shot at landing one of the third-place berths into the knockout round. More than likely, they’ll be through in the MLS is Back tournament after just three games, waiting to see if the MLS season will resume after the final in August.
What may seem to some like a sudden dip has actually been building for the last 10 months. Since winning the U.S. Open Cup last August, Atlanta has gone 7-6-1 for a paltry 1.57 points per game. Yes, they started the pre-COVID regular season with two victories, but they were both narrow 2-1 results against expansion side Nashville SC and bottom-feeding Cincinnati (which got revenge on Thursday). Atlanta is the only team so far to be held scoreless in two MLS is Back matches after they went a man down in the 26th minute and had a second player sent off during added time.
Following Friday’s loss, head coach Frank de Boer suggested that MLS’s scheduling had an impact on the team’s performance.
“If you see this game at 9 a.m., for everybody it’s not worth it to play in these conditions,” De Boer told reporters. “The tempo was really slow. Even 11 against 10 it’s really slow. There’s no benefit for supporters to watch or for the players. Circumstances were really tough. If you want to entertain people, to win and see good games, I can’t imagine that, for the supporters, they think this is a game that you will want to watch back.”
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Going into the tournament, there were many questions about both the marketability and the on-field impact of morning matches. But while the TV ratings haven’t been impressive, the expected goals output has been very similar to the after-dinner matchups. Per American Soccer Analysis, the morning matches have had an average xG rate of 2.69 across both teams per match, compared to 2.95 xG in evening contests.
The conventional wisdom would say that the second half of the morning fixtures is more difficult as the Florida heat intensifies. However, the analytics don’t back that theory up. Tracking every game through Atlanta’s loss to Cincinnati, American Soccer Analysis has seen the first half of morning matches turn out an average 1.22 xG — nearly identical to the 1.25 rate in evening games. The second half? 1.47 xG in the morning, 1.69 xG at night — not the same spike, but far from a calamitous factor.
If De Boer was looking to explain away his team’s poor showing, he shouldn’t have focused on the sun, he should have focused on his star.
Josef Martínez’s absence since tearing his ACL in the season opener at Nashville has had an undeniable impact on Atlanta. Simply, there’s no way to adequately replace MLS’s best all-around striker. Since De Boer took over ahead of the 2019 season (coinciding with Miguel Almirón’s departure), Martínez has played 30 league games and missed eight. When he plays, Atlanta averages 1.52 non-penalty xG. When he’s gone, their non-penalty xG has plummeted to 1.02. No matter how you feel about Adam Jahn, JJ Williams or the rest of Atlanta’s backups, they can’t replicate his output.
Martínez will hopefully make a full recovery, as many players do these days after ACL injuries. That said, what’s the next step for an Atlanta side which has lost its identity over the past 18 months? What actions are necessary after such a toothless performance in Orlando?
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The answer to that last question will largely depend on how they view MLS is Back. Do they see it as another tournament to win, another trophy to lift, another route into the CCL? Or will they excuse it as a pair of losses in July after a long layoff? After all, in any other season, back-to-back losses in the middle of summer would rarely ring the alarm bells in an MLS organization.
Perhaps crashing out of the tournament after two games shouldn’t require heightened stakes, given how unprecedented everything in 2020 is. And in that sense, perhaps its appropriate that, for the first time since joining MLS, Atlanta United have undeniably failed to meet expectations.
Sizing up the East
While Atlanta have been the darlings of MLS since joining the league, it’s worth remembering that Toronto FC have represented the East in three of the last four MLS Cup finals. The squad hasn’t always been convincing at MLS is Back, but Toronto are again proving to be a top tournament side.
They failed to stick the landing in their opener against D.C. United, entering halftime up 2-0 with a man advantage and settling for a 2-2 draw. They nearly blew a lead again on Thursday despite Ayo Akinyola’s brilliant hat-trick, going 4-2 up in the 83rd minute before letting Montreal back in with a stoppage-time penalty. It capped a wild, worthy installment of the Canadian Classique — still one of the best and most under-appreciated rivalries in North American soccer.
The match seemed to swing momentum in 10-minute intervals, with the Impact turning in possibly their best attacking performance under Thierry Henry to date. However, their defense and stamina continue to be weak spots, as the team has seemed to experience tired legs sooner than their opponents in each of their 2020 matches. With New England and D.C. playing on Friday, Group C remains largely open, though Montreal can only see the knockout round if they win against D.C. and are among the best third-place finishers.
With Atlanta out of the way, the Columbus Crew have stood out in Group E. Their 4-0 dismantling of FC Cincinnati was largely hedged by the quality of their opponent, but they again dominated play on Thursday against New York Red Bulls. The tandem of Gyasi Zardes and Lucas Zelarayán has instantly become one of MLS’s best — Zardes with four goals in his last three games, Zelarayán with three goals and two assists in four. Equally promising is the reunion of Caleb Porter and Darlington Nagbe, who has brought his tried-and-true link-up play from Atlanta into a familiar system. The defense has yet to truly be tested, but they look a safe bet to score in the knockout stages while we find out what the backline can do.
As for the Red Bulls, the continued youth movement and expelling of longtime mainstays has led to uncertainty for the short-term. Their results have been a mixed bag: a 3-2 win over Cincinnati and a 1-1 draw at Real Salt Lake before the stoppage, then a 1-0 win over Atlanta and a 2-0 loss against Columbus. Tim Parker has seen his former starting spot go to Amro Tarek, who has yet to form a steady partnership with Aaron Long. With most key figures from their 2018 Supporters Shield-winning side playing elsewhere, it’s another chance to rebuild their identity.
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Group A has seen Philadelphia firmly established as the best in the group, while reigning regular season conference champion New York City FC has looked a far cry of their former selves.
With Atlanta in flux, there’s a vacancy atop the Eastern hierarchy. Toronto, Columbus and Philadelphia each have a claim to be the class of the conference, but it’s a stark contrast to the depth of quality teams across the Mississippi.
