We are at least another four months out from the Ducks suiting up to play a hockey game where two points can be gained, and a new season will truly be underway.
A lot has surely happened beyond their control. But a lot could happen within. If all goes well with an NHL return-to-play plan that aims to have the Stanley Cup awarded by early October, there is a highly-anticipated draft that’ll take place soon after followed by free agency occurring in short order. Training camps for the 2020-21 season could be opened on Nov. 17. By then, the Ducks could still make some alterations to their club before Dallas Eakins begins his second season behind the bench — we’ll get to possible alteration pieces further down.
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For now, most of what you would expect from the returning roster appears to be in place.
Up front, Sonny Milano is the only notable forward who spent all last season in the NHL that remains unsigned and he’s a restricted free agent with arbitration rights but without a significant raise-worthy resume coming off a one-year deal where he accepted Columbus’ qualifying offer last summer. There is every intention for Troy Terry to stay in Anaheim for good after Anaheim signed him to a three-year extension. Otherwise, every other regular is under contract.
The back end has enough bodies. There is a potential foursome that’s set with possible pairings of Hampus Lindholm and Josh Manson along with Cam Fowler and Erik Gudbranson. The re-signings of Christian Djoos, Brendan Guhle and Jani Hakanpaa along with the inking of Kodie Curran to a two-year deal should, if nothing else, bring forth an interesting competition with defense prospect Josh Mahura to fill out the other slots. Jacob Larsson is still unsigned and the longer he isn’t further raises the possibility that the 23-year-old RFA gets squeezed out. It appears that’s already the case for veteran unrestricted free agents Michael Del Zotto and Matt Irwin.
We know it is John Gibson’s net and we know Ryan Miller could again be backing him up if he wants to return or the Ducks will be faced with either promoting Anthony Stolarz after his best AHL season or likely looking at bringing in another low-cost experienced veteran.
But while there aren’t a lot of uncertainties for the Ducks at the moment, this is also a roster still containing a number of familiar faces that are responsible for consecutive lowly 13th-place finishes in the Western Conference. This group ended the 2019-20 season among the league’s bottom five in goal scoring, shots on goal and power-play proficiency and bottom 10 in defense and penalty killing.
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If this group is being expected to make the big step forward that general manager Bob Murray had no problem forecasting, that means a lot of that improvement will have to come from within. Is a big move upward toward playoff contention realistically possible without making some acquisitions or trades?
To wit, taking that route to upgrade the roster won’t be easy. Final rosters, of course, won’t be determined until training camp is in full swing and decisions are made. But if you take what the Ducks are at the present, there is already $77 million committed, according to Cap Friendly, when you factor in Terry’s new contract and the strong possibility that the right wing is with them on opening night. It leaves just $4.5 million available under a flat cap of $81.5 million with the backup goalie situation needing to be settled and determinations made on Milano and Larsson.
Sound unsettling? Sure. But Murray and his cohorts in the front office still have an opportunity to augment their lineup with proven talent if they want it.
Right now, Ryan Kesler’s $6.875 million cap figure is being counted. But that is space available to the Ducks as the center, whose playing career is essentially over after another major hip surgery, basically has a permanent stay on long-term injured reserve. Kesler will get his money until the contract expires but Anaheim could have as much as $11.3 million to work with instead.
Now there could be less than that. Using Cap Friendly’s impressive Armchair GM tool, I actually brought the potential cap room available down to $7.9 million in filling out a 22-man roster of players already under contract that included Terry and Stolarz with the Ducks. Obviously, the dollar figure would fluctuate with any changes made (for instance, any re-signings of Miller, Milano and Larsson).
But there will be several teams that will be in far more delicate — if not dire — cap situations with the ceiling remaining flat instead of the rise to $84-88 million the NHL was expecting before the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on league revenue. Some will have no choice but to shed a player or two to fit under the lower cap. The better play for the Ducks might be to wait until next summer when a lot more cap room opens up but they could jump into the fray and try to augment their roster with someone that might not have reached the trade market if his team had more financial flexibility.
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Could any of the following five players make a huge difference for Anaheim? There is no guarantee that they will be on the move or no signal that the Ducks have any or significant interest in them. But they shouldn’t close themselves off to these possibilities if the goal is to do more than tread water and wait for next summer. There will be others. If you’ve got your own acquisition candidates, feel free to share them and I’ll happily discuss in the comments below.
Dylan Strome, C, Chicago Blackhawks
If owner Rocky Wirtz continues to let him have the keys to the roster, Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman has a cap dilemma looming ahead. Cap Friendly has Chicago with a projected $7.3 million available, which suggests flexibility. But that will be gone with two-time Stanley Cup-winning goalie Corey Crawford becoming an unrestricted free agent and backup Malcolm Subban entering restricted status. They could not retain Subban and promote No. 3 goalie Collin Delia, but Delia will count $1 million towards the cap.
And there is the equally huge issue of signing RFA forwards Dylan Strome, Dominik Kubalik and Drake Caggiula. Defenseman Slater Koekkoek needs a contract. Retaining Caggiula and Koekkoek might not break the bank but re-signing Strome and Kubalik will be costly. Kubalik is one of three finalists for the Calder Trophy after leading all rookies with 30 goals this season. And he’s already 24 after starting his pro career in Europe. Our Blackhawks beat writer, Scott Powers, had a league source tell him in February that one route the team could go is a one-year deal like Vegas had with William Karlsson before writing even larger checks for eight more seasons.
Still, Karlsson’s tide-him-over contract cost the Golden Knights $5.25 million after the center’s bust-out 43-goal season. We haven’t addressed Strome, who was stellar in 2018-19 after coming over from Arizona for Nick Schmaltz and less so in 2019-20. But the former No. 3 overall draft pick is coming out of his entry-level deal and ready to cash in with 89 points over his 116 games with Chicago. What could make him available is Kirby Dach showed promise as a rookie and could become the No. 2 center behind captain Jonathan Toews (and possibly supplant Toews for No. 1 status).
Strome doesn’t play big but his 6-foot-3 frame is and the Ducks have the room to give the 23-year-old playmaker a healthy raise and a second-line role, nudging Adam Henrique down to the No. 3 hole. It might cost Sam Steel in return and if you think Steel has the upside to become a 50-point performer, then you don’t trade him. But while Strome is not a star, there is getting someone more proven with his prime years ahead than wondering if the unproven will give you what you once hoped.
Kasperi Kapanen, RW, Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto GM Kyle Dubas might be a smart guy who’s able to exploit the cap loopholes enough to pay his front-line players top dollar and also keep some talented support pieces, but the bill for all the cap gymnastics has to come due at some point, no? Even though he’ll finally be done with the contracts of non-functioning forwards Nathan Horton and David Clarkson, he also won’t have the cushion that stashing the two’s salaries on LTIR affords.
The guess is that Dubas will have (or want?) to watch UFA defensemen Tyson Barrie and Cody Ceci walk out the door. But he’ll still need to sign young blueliner Travis Dermott and bring back sage veteran Jason Spezza, which there seems to be an appetite for. Useful forwards Ilya Mikheyev, Frederik Gauthier and Denis Malgin also need new deals. Dubas also must think about a potentially tight 2021 summer where No. 1 goalie Frederik Andersen and heart-and-soul winger Zach Hyman could become expensive UFAs.
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The Leafs can’t keep everyone. Parting with either Andreas Johnsson, Alexander Kerfoot or Kapanen seems to be the easier avenue than a winger they love in Hyman. While Hyman would be a great fit with Anaheim, Kapanen should be the choice given the 24-year-old’s offensive upside and a potentially bigger role in Southern California. His $3.2-million cap hit and real salaries of $2.86 million in 2020-21 and $2.34 million in 2021-22 are highly palatable.
Antti Raanta, G, Arizona Coyotes
The Coyotes are no longer under the stewardship of John Chayka after a messy breakup but they’re left with a cap conundrum for ownership and the current power structure that’ll include interim GM Steve Sullivan or a new permanent decision maker to sort out. They’re firmly up against the cap and have little to show for their spending unless they beat Nashville in the playoff qualifier and go on quite a run when the 24-team restart gets underway Saturday.
It might be great for longtime fans starved for success, but it won’t alleviate their cap issues. Arizona went over the cap this season (Marian Hossa’s salary on LTIR let the team squeeze under) and already has nearly $80 million committed for next. And that doesn’t include big-ticket former MVP Taylor Hall, whom they want to keep after making the big trade for him in December. They still have Hossa’s $5.275 million to put on LTIR for one more season but that won’t be nearly enough to fit Hall in.
And they’ve got other regulars slated for free agency in Carl Soderberg, Brad Richardson, Vinnie Hinostroza and Christian Fischer. Soderberg figures to walk. Richardson might have to. Hinostroza and Fischer won’t command too much but they’ll still eat up space if they’re retained. If the Ducks must look to the outside to feel secure about who’ll back up Gibson, they could look to the desert to help ease Arizona’s cap issues and stay strong in net.
Antti Raanta is owed for one more season with a $4.25-million cap number ($4 million actual salary). The 31-year-old has been excellent at times — he owns a .921 save percentage over seven NHL seasons — and seems to flourish in a 1B role. The Coyotes have Darcy Kuemper through 2022 and Adin Hill patiently waiting in the wings. If they can move Raanta, they will. One year of Raanta could ease any uncertainty over Stolarz handling the No. 2 spot while giving the Ducks two goalies that can steal games. Shifting Gibson to a setup where he’d play 50 games instead of 60 could prove more beneficial over the long haul.
Jaden Schwartz, LW, St. Louis Blues
Doug Armstrong is a highly respected GM that’s the architect of the defending champion Blues. He has managed to build a contender around a collective of good-to-great players rather than one or two superstars. But there is still cost with that and Armstrong now faces a serious cap dilemma as star captain Alex Pietrangelo is set to enter free agency. To retain the Norris Trophy finalist with a max or near-max contract and ink talented young defenseman Vince Dunn to a new bridge deal with a healthy pay bump is going to be quite the challenge.
Schwartz, 28, is a legitimate top-six winger capable of 25 goals and 60 points when healthy. He has a cap hit of $5.35 million on a deal that expires next summer but his real salary is just $4 million. That should appeal to the Ducks, who could test him out for one year and try signing him long term if the marriage works. It stands to reason that Armstrong would be more open to shedding Alexander Steen’s contract or moving Tyler Bozak or Oskar Sundqvist but that wouldn’t make the Ducks much better. Schwartz is more of a difference maker. A notable wrinkle in this is he has modified no-trade clause where he could block a deal to 15 teams.
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Now if St. Louis were to somehow make Dunn available, Murray ought to be trying to cut the line with a tempting trade package in hand. But we’re thinking that Armstrong wants no part of letting a skilled 23-year-old with 21 goals from the blue line over the last two seasons get away. And we’re also thinking the Ducks’ once-significant interest in Justin Faulk has diminished greatly given how he struggled to find his spot on a deep blue line and that he’s 28 with a $6.5-million cap hit over the next seven seasons. Here is where Schwartz could be a target.
Jake Virtanen, RW, Vancouver Canucks
Cap Friendly currently lists the Canucks with $17 million available under the cap for 2020-21. That doesn’t seem bad. Now they’ve got RFAs to sign in Jake Virtanen, Adam Gaudette, Tyler Motte and Zack McEwen along with minutes-eating defenseman Troy Stecher. There are notable pending UFAs in lead goalie Jacob Markstrom, scoring winger Tyler Toffoli and shutdown defender Chris Tanev. All three are important and the fact that their cost is going to go up to where all may not come back would hurt Vancouver. Thomas Drance, our Canucks’ beat writer, broke down how they’ll have to navigate a stagnant cap.
Here is where it gets worse. Young stars Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes will come off their rookie contracts after 2020-21. Locking up these cornerstones long term would be desirable before next summer rolls around. But the two will eat up a lot of cap room when they are signed and the roster still has multiple players with bad contracts for their present value that would not be attractive to Anaheim. Someone that still has value for their cost might need to be parted with. Former Cup-winning Kings forward Tanner Pearson ($3.75 million cap number) is a good value after a 21-goal, 45-point season.
The Ducks need goal scorers. Brock Boeser would be ideal, but often-criticized GM Jim Benning would likely draw the ire of the fanbase for giving the winger away. With 18 goals and 36 points in 2019-20, Virtanen is coming off his best season. The 23-year-old, who is one a few Canucks with arbitration rights, is a maturing top-nine forward. He wouldn’t solve their scoring issues on his own but a forward like Milano could be moved out, with Heinen possibly shifted back to left wing. Or Max Comtois, who’s trying to break through a logjam there, could be a piece sent up north.
Why no one off the Tampa Bay Lightning?
Now if you are wondering this, I can tell you that plucking from the cap-challenged Lightning was seriously considered. Like the Leafs, the Bolts can’t keep everyone even if it seems like they can and do. They’re obviously deep but you run into trouble when you see where Tyler Johnson, Alex Killorn, Ondrej Palat and Yanni Gourde are all in the age 28-to-30 range with cap hits going from $4.45 million to $5.3 million and term left on all (Palat, 29, comes up first in 2022). All four also have some sort of trade protection.
If the roles were reversed and the Ducks were clearly swinging upward toward Cup-contending status and flushed with cap space, then you might look at one of them. But Tampa Bay isn’t trading Brayden Point and it isn’t letting potential annual Selke Trophy threat Anthony Cirelli go. Cirelli and young standout Mikhail Sergachev have to get paid, but the Bolts also have to keep them. Maybe Blake Coleman, 28, is a possibility but the Lightning have him at an affordable $1.8 million next season. There just isn’t much of a match from a trade standpoint unless the Ducks deal from their core.
Update: Milano reportedly re-signed with the Ducks later Tuesday for two years at $1.7 million average annual value. This should not change the Ducks’ ability to try to acquire the aforementioned players.
(Top photo of Dylan Strome: Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images)
