What’s behind Randal Grichuk’s early season success, and can he sustain it?

This year, Randal Grichuk has done something many hitters fear: Change his approach at the plate.

“It’s scary as can be,” he told reporters Thursday. “Everybody says, ‘what’s the easiest way to be able to make a change?’ And that’s (to) see success early on.'”

In that regard, Grichuk’s 2020 season couldn’t be off to a better start.

Earlier this week, Grichuk enjoyed an offensive explosion against the Baltimore Orioles, producing 11 runs on six hits, including four home runs, while playing a pivotal role in the team’s three-game series sweep. Grichuk, who went hitless in Thursday’s doubleheader sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies, is slashing .306/.359/.583 for the season with six home runs in 19 games. His underlying numbers are promising too. He’s chasing less often, putting up fewer strikeouts and walking more.

The 29-year-old outfielder has spoken to the media at length this season about his desire to let the ball “get deeper” during at-bats. In other words, he’s allowing the ball to get closer to the plate before swinging. This change, in theory, has been providing Grichuk a longer look at the ball, preventing him from committing to breaking or off-speed pitches too soon.

“I think a lot of good hitters’ contact points are backed up, over the plate more,” he explained. “And looking at mine in previous years, I’ve gone out and got it. And I think by allowing (the ball to) get deeper is mechanical, but then approach-based, too. Just understanding using the whole field, how to use the whole field, why to use the whole field and what’s a positive take, positive swing, late in the count. I think all that, mechanically and approach-based, is thrown into why I’m chasing less, while still hitting the ball hard.”

From Aug. 8, here’s one example of what Grichuk is talking about as he allows a fastball to get deep on him before slashing it to right field for a base hit.

The sample size to date is small, but encouraging nonetheless. Throughout his career, Grichuk has been prone to the occasional offensive burst. Long slumps have usually followed. But a deeper look at his 2020 numbers reveals there is something different about his current hot streak.

For example, Grichuk’s 2020 chase rate — the percentage of pitches he swings at outside of the strike zone — is at a career-best 27.2 percent. That’s slightly better than the league average of 28.2, and down considerably from his career average of 32.9. Grichuk is striking out less often than he did a year ago, only 20.5 percent of the time compared to 25.8 in 2019. Meanwhile, his walk rate has improved three percent from last year, up to 7.7.

And finally, his power numbers are finally starting to line up with his better-than-league-average hard-hit rate of 46.4 percent, which has traditionally been a strength of his. He’s barrelling more balls, too, with his 16.1 percent placing him in the 84th percentile of MLB.

Grichuk is batting .500 and slugging 1.214 against off-speed pitches, with three home runs, on the season. On breaking balls, Grichuk is currently hitting .222, but with two home runs. Of Grichuk’s six home runs this season, only one has come off a fastball. A year ago, 19 of his 31 home runs were off fastballs.

Since joining the Blue Jays in 2018, Grichuk has produced power at the plate, but has failed to consistently reach base. For example, he hit 56 home runs combined in 2018 and ’19. But in that same time span, among 114 qualified batters, he posted the second-worst on-base percentage (.289) in MLB. His strikeout rate (26.1 percent) was also in the bottom 10. Pair that with the five-year, $52 million contract extension he received last year, and, well, the all-around results simply weren’t cutting it.

Despite a career-best 31-home run campaign last year, Grichuk was disappointed with his season, stemming primarily from his inconsistent production.

“I think there’s a lot of points where I was searching for the feeling, searching for just that (feeling) of comfort in the box. (I) felt it at times, but not long enough,” he said last September.

During the offseason, Grichuk spoke with Blue Jays hitting coach Guillermo Martinez. When he reported for spring training in February, Grichuk began working with Martinez as well as Dante Bichette, who at the time was acting as a guest instructor but has since been hired on as a full-time coach. Soon, Grichuk began experimenting with allowing the ball to come to him.

“Towards the end of camp, my last three games were when I made some adjustments with my approach, mindset, swing and I got immediate success,” he said. “Couple homers against Baltimore, couple knocks against New York. Some good (at-bats) so I felt like that was easy.”

But then baseball shut down for three and a half months because of the pandemic. This presented an obvious challenge for Grichuk. But during the hiatus, he continued to review his notes and tried to “remember the feels” of what he’d been doing at the plate. When he reported for summer camp in July, he was able to pick right up from where he left off and carry it into the season.

Grichuk saw good results early on, getting on-base at a high clip. But absent was his trademark power, as he failed to register an extra-base hit in his first 11 games. But he didn’t panic. He even joked at one point that he might never hit a home run again.

Then came Baltimore.

“I knew I was not chasing and I was still hitting the ball hard,” he said. “I wasn’t getting much loft early on, but I was still hitting for a high average and still had a high on-base percentage, which traditionally, that’s not been who I am. So, I knew my approach and everything was right and was putting together quality at-bats. But I just wasn’t putting the ball in the air, and I knew it was going to come. It was just a matter of catching the ball, being on time, and getting some loft under it, which I finally got.”

General manager Ross Atkins, while cautioning the sample size is still small, said the promise Grichuk has shown at the plate only adds to his value given the defence he already provides the club with.

“How good he’s been in centre field and you couple that with the decreased swing and miss, the increase in walks, the increase in pitches seen, the power’s always been there. Early on, when he didn’t have the power and he had the hits, but he was getting on-base, we were extremely encouraged,” Atkins said.

“It’s a small sample size again, too, on Randal, but that’s why I pointed to the defence because his instincts, his routes, the ease with which he’s played centre field has been exceptionally encouraging for us,” added Atkins. “And now to see those added benefits of him offensively, that’s a great start to the season for Randal.”

As a group, the Blue Jays are making a concerted effort to improve their team-wide on-base percentage and two-strike approach. (Dante Bichette is especially helping with the latter.) Over the past two seasons (2018-19), the Blue Jays’ collective .308 OBP is 23rd league-wide. In 2020, their .314 mark ranks them one spot higher.

“We are striving to be a team that pitchers don’t want to face, and typically those offences are built with guys that have really disciplined at-bats and grind them out and have two-strike approaches,” Atkins said. “Over the last couple of years, we’ve really struggled with a two-strike approach. That’s been a huge point of emphasis for us. We always use content, data, information to back things up as we’re explaining or asking for subtle adjustments or even just talking about adjustments. That’s been ongoing with all of our players and Randal’s just done an incredible job.”

Grichuk has already done the scary part: make the change.

It’s still early, but so far, it’s been a successful one. Now, the question is: can he sustain it?

(Top Photo: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)