Howe: A week in, a clear leader in the Patriots’ QB competition

FOXBORO – Cam Newton won the first week of the Patriots’ quarterback competition.

Now met with a day off, Bill Belichick and the coaching staff have plenty of material to evaluate as they prepare to divvy up the reps during the second week of training camp. And if Newton can sustain his momentum, the Pats’ Week 1 starter might be apparent before the end of August.

The first tell occurred Thursday when Newton commanded the majority of quality reps, went 10 of 17 (with two drops) and made quicker decisions, including a dart to a slanting Devin Ross after diagnosing a blitz. This was the first day the Patriots didn’t divide an equal share among Newton, Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer.

“The improvement that (Newton) is making on a daily basis are sometimes (equivalent to) what you could see (from) some other guys that have been in the same system for a few years make on a monthly basis,” Patriots quarterbacks coach Jedd Fisch said. “I think the leaps that he’s taking each day have been really impressive based on the fact that there’s a huge foundational gap from not having been here the spring or the season before.”

The competition took another turn Friday, during a glorified walkthrough, when Stidham was held out due to a hip injury. The 2019 fourth-rounder was overly conservative during groin and hamstring stretches at the start of practice, then didn’t take part during the slow-speed, non-competitive team drills that were split between Newton and Hoyer.

The Patriots expect Stidham to participate fully when they return to practice – tentatively scheduled for Sunday – and there isn’t a concern over his long-term prognosis, according to a source. He’ll continue to have an opportunity to compete to close the gap that Newton established.

And compete, they will. Based on the absence of an offseason workout program and the limitations on the summer workload, the three-man competition will evolve in layers, as there’s no way to show off their true, season-long potential over the course of a few weeks. Surely, the Patriots need to establish a starter for the regular-season opener, but that quarterback will have to perform well enough to keep that job for the duration of the season.

The Patriots have completed five practices through Friday, including three in full pads. They’re off Saturday, but the coaches’ work won’t rest.

Here’s how the three quarterbacks have fared so far.

Cam Newton

Completions in team drills (11-on-11s, 7-on-7s): 37 of 56 (66.1 percent), 2 interceptions

Average spot in quarterback rotation: 1.8

Times leading off a quarterback rotation: 12 of 25

For perspective on the passing stats, Tom Brady completed 69.1 percent of his passes and averaged three interceptions in training camp from 2016-19. Brady averaged one interception for every 82 passes over that span.

Newton has made up ground in his quest to learn the system, but it seems unrealistic to think he can truly catch up to Hoyer or Stidham. Newton’s playing style might make that a moot point regardless because he’s never going to just drop back, make himself at home in the pocket and fire a quick read on a consistent basis.

While that’ll certainly need to be the case in some spots, the Patriots are going to want Newton to utilize his legs, power and escapability. The coaches also understand it’s impossible to gauge Newton’s running ability in practice without live tackling. That variable will be assessed by his health – which is currently in good standing – and projecting that element against past performances.

For instance, there have been times in practice when Newton has held the ball too long to make a read or been converged upon by pass rushers, but there’s no way of knowing how that might have played out if he decided to scramble. A goal for Newton during these workouts is to get the passing game down as quickly as possible. But in a game situation, it’s all about moving the ball by any means necessary.

So far, Newton’s favorite target has been Damien Harris (seven connections in team drills), followed by Julian Edelman (four), Jakobi Meyers (four), Mohamed Sanu (three), Ross (three) and James White (three). Harris caught four of those balls Monday when Newton was frequently checking down during a two-minute drill at the end of the workout, so those numbers are a bit skewed.

It’d be nice to see Newton gather more chemistry with the receivers and tight ends, but he’s a victim of circumstance, too. Edelman has been limited twice, and N’Keal Harry has missed the past three practices. The tight ends are extraordinarily young, with rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene as mainstays at a position that can be unforgiving on the inexperienced.

Newton’s interceptions both happened Wednesday. First, Newton didn’t get enough air on an intermediate throw to Isaiah Zuber, and Cassh Maluia fell back into a zone for a leaping pick. Later, Kyle Dugger undercut Ryan Izzo’s route for a nice play in the end zone. They were mistakes, of course, but they were also two strong plays by the defense and it’s worth wondering if Zuber or Izzo could have made themselves more available on the receiving end.

Newton hasn’t been perfect, but his arm strength is evident and his accuracy has been better than expected. The 31-year-old still offers the most upside at the position, especially if his trajectory continues at the current pace.

Jarrett Stidham

Completions in team drills (11-on-11s, 7-on-7s): 36 of 50 (72 percent), 7 interceptions

Average spot in quarterback rotation: 2.5

Times leading off a quarterback rotation: 7 of 25

The big story with Stidham has been the seven interceptions. Of those, four were to the left side of the field on out-breaking routes, and the defender beat the receiver to the ball. Two were underthrown deep balls to Damiere Byrd, including one incredibly late read. And another was on an out-breaking route to the right side of the field, which was underthrown.

Those sideline throws have a higher degree of difficulty, but they’re paramount for a starting quarterback. It’s also fair to admit that New Englanders – coaches, players, media and fans in totality – have taken them for granted because Brady was consistently on the mark outside the numbers.

On a related note, Stidham’s interceptions have been compared to Jimmy Garoppolo’s practice mistakes in a past Patriots life. Garoppolo was undeniably bad in training camp as a rookie in 2014, and he threw seven interceptions during each training camp in 2016 and 2017.

But Garoppolo had the benefit of preseason games, when he could show he was a different player in game action. Stidham won’t have that avenue this summer, which the coaching staff will take into consideration to an extent. But if the coaches are projecting how the quarterbacks’ practice performance will directly translate into the regular season, it can be assumed Newton will earn the benefit of the doubt with his established body of work. Stidham probably can’t afford to tie Newton in this summer competition.

Interceptions at practice deserve context, too. Similar to Newton, who is advised to pass more than run in this setting, more traditional pocket passers such as Stidham are coached to take more chances, to a degree.

And oddly enough, four of Stidham’s interceptions have been intended for Byrd, and two have been for Ross. Both are battling for jobs in their own right, and all three quarterbacks are trying to find chemistry with each speedy receiver. Stidham’s other interception was intended for Asiasi.

“I don’t think it’s really good for us as a coaching staff to over-evaluate an individual play when we have so many plays to work with,” Belichick said of Stidham’s interceptions. “Every player makes mistakes out there. Every player gets corrected. Every player gets coaching points on things that they can do better differently. I would say, ultimately, we’re going to reach a point where we have to really evaluate what the performance is.

“I think in the early stages, there’s definitely a timing, confidence, anticipation issues that are different from player to player, depending on who they’re in there with, and what the play was, and how things unfolded and so forth. Sometimes, those are mistakes. Sometimes, they’re learning experiences. Sometimes, it could be mistakes by multiple people involved with a specific part of the play that have to be ironed out.”

On the first throw after Stidham’s third interception Tuesday, he stepped up into the pocket and fired a missile to Byrd on an out route to the left sideline. It looked as if Stidham understood the pattern of mistakes and immediately wanted to correct it, and that’s a big plus. He also displayed the accuracy and confidence in the pocket that had been so prevalent to his game over the past year.

Stidham has made some of the best throws of camp when exuding that confidence. No one places the ball better than the second-year quarterback, so he has a chance to rally if he can shake the turnovers, which can’t be ignored even if they can be explained in context.

On the flip side, after back-to-back picks Thursday, Stidham’s next pair of throws were a short-armed incompletion to Asiasi and another that Myles Bryant broke up before it could reach Gunner Olszewski. It was the first time in camp Stidham didn’t look sure of himself.

But was that also when the injury came to a head? Following those consecutive interceptions, Stidham got a chance to attempt only two passes over the final five quarterback rotations. Meanwhile, Newton threw nine passes, and Hoyer had seven passing plays (six throws, one sack).

In real time, it seemed that was punishment for Stidham’s mistakes. In hindsight, it’s possible that’s when Stidham’s hip began to bark.

Stidham has done a nice job of mixing it around with the receivers, tight ends and running backs, even drawing praise for quickly checking down at times. He by and large has a better command of the pocket than a season ago.

Stidham was the best quarterback on the field Monday, and he had a very slight lead over Newton on the quarterback rotations through three practices. While critics have scoffed at the idea Stidham has a chance to beat out Newton, the actions by the coaching staff have shown he’ll absolutely get that opportunity.

When the Patriots get back on the field, Stidham will have to eradicate the turnovers to prove he still deserves it.

Brian Hoyer

Completions in team drills (11-on-11s, 7-on-7s): 39 of 61 (63.9 percent), 1 interception

Average spot in quarterback rotation: 2.3

Times leading off a quarterback rotation: 6 of 25

There’s no harm in being the safe choice. Hoyer doesn’t have Newton’s upside, nor does the soon-to-be 35-year-old have the long-term potential as a franchise quarterback, as Stidham still may.

But Hoyer knows the offense better than the competition and is smart with the ball. He has a demanding presence about him, notably by being able to call the offense to re-huddle when he doesn’t like something at the line of scrimmage.

Oddly, though, Hoyer was sailing passes a bit more frequently over the past two practices, even during Friday’s non-competitive session. He was the best quarterback on the field Wednesday, but Hoyer was way off Thursday, going 7 of 16 with his only interception of camp.

Hoyer has been an equal-opportunity distributor with the ball, completing all nine of his Tuesday passes to nine different receivers and all seven Thursday to seven different receivers. And Wednesday, he completed his first nine passes to nine different receivers.

He also appears to have improved his velocity this summer, and Hoyer has thrown the best deep ball among the trio, connecting on several passes of at least 40 yards this week, including a pair of well-placed throws to Ross.

Hoyer might not boast the same excitement level to the outside world as Newton and Stidham, but Belichick isn’t running a popularity contest. If Newton stumbles, or Stidham’s mistakes continue or either succumbs to injury, Hoyer could be an early-season placeholder, especially if the defense can keep the Patriots competitive.

(Photo of Hoyer and Newton: Steven Senne-Pool / Getty Images)