1 Rhode Island (12-3, 4-0): Tuesday’s win over Saint Louis wasn’t pretty, but one stat illustrates makes Rhode Island special: 19 assists on 25 made field goals. Every player on the roster seemingly can create shots for teammates. (Last week: 1)
- This week: The game of the year in the A10 could be going down this Saturday when Rhode Island hosts St. Bonaventure. Then the Rams will have to make sure they avoid an emotion letdown Wednesday with another home game, against UMass.
2. Nevada (15-3, 4-0): What the Wolf Pack has proven over the past three games is that they can win against solid Mountain West competition even when they don’t have their “A” game. And when they do, their ceiling is higher than anyone else on this list. (Last week: 2)
- This week: Two more games against lower-tier Mountain West teams, Utah State and San Jose State, before facing s a murderer’s row in the coming weeks.
3. Saint Mary’s (16-2, 5-0): For all of the talk about Saint Mary’s weak schedule, the Gaels have already recorded four RPI top-100 wins with a chance at four more this season. (Last week: 3)
- This week: A road trip to Pepperdine shouldn’t worry Saint Mary’s too much, but next Thursday’s game at Gonzaga is huge for conference positioning and tournament hopes.
4. Boise State (14-3, 4-1): It’s impossible to knock the Broncos for a one-point overtime loss at Wyoming, a really difficult place to play at high altitude, especially when they then traveled to Fresno State and knocked off a solid Bulldogs team. Chandler Hutchison, a 6-7 senior guard, averaged 24 & 8 in the two games. (Last week: 4)
- This week: Boise State returns home for a pair of games, and Saturday against San Diego State is one of the biggest of the year. On Wednesday, Utah State comes to town.
5. New Mexico State (14-3, 2-0): The Aggies pulled away in the second half to win by double-digits in the tough road environment at Grand Canyon on Thursday, thanks to 29 points from 6-4 senior guard Zach Lofton and a 50-25 rebounding advantage. (Last week: 6)
- This week: New Mexico State will look to take care of business in a road game at slumping UC-Bakersfield and a home game against streaking Seattle.
6. Western Kentucky (12-5, 4-0): Virginia transfer Darius Thompson, a 6-3 senior guard, played like a man possessed in this week’s pair of huge conference wins, scoring 33 points in a win over Marshall and 24 on Thursday against Old Dominion. With 6-6 freshman guard Josh Anderson and 6-9 sophomore forward Moustapha Diagne both becoming eligible, this team’s ceiling is sky high. (Last week: 16)
- This week: A road trip to Charlotte won’t cause too many problems, but next Thursday’s home game against UAB will test the new Hilltoppers lineup.
7. Middle Tennessee (12-4, 4-0): Thursday night’s performance from 6-10 senior forward Brandon Walters is exactly what the Blue Raiders need to reach the next level. His 18 points on 7-of-7 shooting helped Middle Tennessee post an impressive 15-point win over Louisiana Tech. (Last week: 7)
- This week: Saturday’s game at home against Southern Miss is no gimme, but necxt Thursday’s road trip to Marshall will be a truly difficult test.
8. San Diego State (11-4, 3-1): In the past three wins, all blowouts against the bottom teams in the Mountain West, San Diego State is averaging better than 80 points per game. Four different Aztecs have reached double figures in each of those games, though no one has topped 20 points. That’s when you know your offense is clicking. (Last week: 9)
- This week: It’s a big week for SDSU, who travels to Boise State on Saturday before hosting Fresno State on Wednesday. Two wins would put them right up near the top of the MWC standings.
9. Stephen F. Austin (14-3, 3-1): 6-4 senior guard Ivan Canete is one of many Lumberjacks players who is just as capable of scoring 20 points as he is happy shooting three times in a game. Canete is averaging 7.2 shots a contest but put up 17 points and 23 points in two of the past three games. (Last week: 10)
- This week: A home game against Incarnate Word (5-9) on Saturday, then a road trip to Abilene Christian on Wednesday, a team ranked 240th by KenPom.
10. St. Bonaventure (12-4, 2-2): The Bonnies got back in the win column on Wednesday, but for the senior backcourt of Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley to only combine for 12 shots and 18 points is concerning. (Last week: 5)
- This week: Saturday’s road game against Rhode Island is certainly one of the most important matchups of the year for the Bonnies, and a virtual must-win if they want to remain in at-large contention.
11. VCU (11-6, 3-1): The good news is the Rams overcame an eight-point halftime deficit twice this week, on the road at La Salle and at home against Duquesne. The bad news is they fell behind both games to inferior opponents. (Last week: 13)
- This week: A road trip to Dayton is never to be taken lightly, which is where VCU is headed on Friday, before returning home to face 3-13 Richmond on Wednesday.
12. BYU (14-4, 3-2): If the loss to Pacific this week taught us anything, it’s that BYU doesn’t have a very deep rotation. Elijah Bryant, a 6-5 junior guard, and 6-8 sophomore forward Yoeli Childs played 40 and 39 minutes, respectively, while only one bench player played double-digit minutes in the overtime game.
- This week: BYU needs to take care of the WCC’s lower teams this week, on the road at Santa Clara and at home against Loyola Marymount.
13. East Tennessee State (13-4, 4-0): The Buccaneers have the makings of a really special group, proving this week that they can outscore teams, as they did against Chattanooga (85-66), or win grind-it-out defensive battles, as they did against a really solid UNC-Greensboro team (68-58). (Last week: 23)
- This week: ETSU takes on 5-9 VMI at home on Saturday before a really tough game next Thursday at Furman, the other top contender in the Southern Conference.
14. Buffalo (11-5, 3-0): Want to know how to make a statement to the rest of your conference? Pull of back-to-back 20-point road wins like Buffalo did this week at Ball State and Akron. (Last week: N/A)
- This week: Home games against Miami (Ohio) and Northern Illinois this week on Saturday and Tuesday should be a pair of comfortable wins.
15. South Dakota State (15-5, 3-0): The winning streak is up to six games for the Jackrabbits, but the best victory during that span was over North Dakota State, ranked 145th by KenPom. (Last week: 19)
- This week: Saturday’s game against Denver will celebrate South Dakota State’s annual “Lamb Bonanza,” the type of tradition you’d only find at a mid-major school.
16. Missouri State (13-5, 3-2): The Bears were riding high before two losses this week to Illinois State and Evansville in which they committed a combined 31 turnovers for 34 points. (Last week: 12)
- This week: Home games against Indiana State and Valparaiso don’t seem quite as easy as they may have a week ago, but Missouri State needs to get back on track with a pair of wins.
17. Vermont (12-5, 2-0): Vermont has played a startling nine true away games so far this season, but the battle-tested Catamounts have won three on the road during their current five-game winning streak. (Last week: 18)
- This week: A pair of home games will be a a relief for Vermont, who takes on 7-10 Stony Brook on Saturday and 4-14 Maine on Monday.
18. Old Dominion (12-4, 3-1): Thursday’s loss to Western Kentucky ended the Monarchs’ seven-game winning streak, but considering ODU shot 38 percent from the field and WKU hit 10 of 16 3-pointers, it was impressive to see Old Dominion compete with the top team in the C-USA. (Last week: 21)
- This week: A stout test awaits Saturday night at home against Marshall (12-5, 3-1), followed by a visit next Thursday to Florida International.
19. College of Charleston (12-5, 3-2): Here’s another friendly reminder that winning road conference games is always hard. CofC dropped a pair of them this week — to Drexel and Towson — that would’ve solidified its position at the top of the Colonial standings. (Last week: 11)
- This week: It’s back out on the road to Elon on Saturday, then home next Thursday against UNC-Greensboro, both of which should be competitive games.
20. Loyola-Chicago (13-4, 3-2): Winning a pair of road games in the Missouri Valley in the same week might be one of the most underrated accomplishments of the year, not to mention against tough opponents Northern Iowa and Illinois State. (Last week: 22)
- This week: If the Ramblers can win this week’s two road games, Saturday against Bradley and Wednesday against Southern Illinois, they’ll have achieved rare consistency in a roller-coaster league.
21. Louisiana (14-3, 4-0): The Ragin’ Cajuns are rolling through the Sun Belt right now, winning all four games by double digits, including a 33-point win over Appalachian State and a 17-point win against Coastal Carolina, the two teams that beat UT-Arlington early in conference play. (Last week: 24)
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This week: Saturday’s home game against UL-Monroe is merely a precursor to the Sun Belt showdown at UT-Arlington on Thursday. The winner is in pole position to win the conference.
22. UNLV (13-4, 2-2): Ever since conference play began, the Runnin’ Rebels have not looked like the same team as the one that started the season so impressively. A home loss to Utah State and barely squeaking out wins against 3-13 San Jose State and 6-10 Air Force is not exactly intimidating the other top MWC teams. (Last week: 14)
- This week: UNLV gets two more lower-tier Mountain West teams, at home against New Mexico and on the road at Colorado State.
23. Belmont (12-6, 4-1): When the Bruins don’t hit shots, they’re vulnerable against other top OVC teams, as proven in this week’s loss to Jacksonville State, when Belmont shot just 7 of 34 from deep. (Last week: 15)
- This week: While Saturday’s road game against Eastern Illinois shouldn’t threaten them, next Thursday’s home matchup with Murray State gives the Bruins a chance to vault back to the top of the OVC.
24. San Diego (12-5, 3-2): The Toreros defense is really a special unit, holding teams to 37.6 percent from the field and 23.4 percent from 3 on the season, and even a dangerous shooting team like Saint Mary’s was held to 1 of 11 from deep this week. (Last week: N/A)
- This week: In order to stay in the chase in the WCC, San Diego can’t afford any slip-ups against teams like this week’s opponents, Loyola Marymount and Portland at home.
25. Ball State (11-5, 2-1): In the early hours of Saturday morning, 6-1 junior guard Jontrell Walker was arrested for domestic battery and has been suspended indefinitely as the investigation continues. The Cardinals lost by 20 points on Saturday in the wake of the news, before winning at Ohio on Tuesday. (Last week: 17)
- This week: The Cardinals face two of the top teams in the MAC this week, first on the road against Western Michigan on Saturday, then at home against 12-4 Central Michigan on Tuesday.
Final thoughts
Coming into the season, mid-major basketball fans knew that at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament were going to come at a premium. Halfway through the season, how many teams remain with a chance at a golden ticket?
- Most Likely: Rhode Island and Nevada are the only teams who should have any measure of confidence about their tournament hopes. They both did enough damage in the non-conference portion of their seasons to earn the respect of the committee. They don’t need to be perfect, but a conference regular season championship and wins against the other top teams (St. Bonaventure, VCU for URI; Boise State, SDSU, UNLV for Nevada) will secure bids.
- An outside shot: The A10 and the Mountain West are still the most capable leagues, and each has a few prime candidates. Out West, it’s Boise State and San Diego State. Their non-conference records were good but not stellar, meaning that one team will need a strong conference record — including sweeps of Nevada, UNLV and on the other team — plus win the regular season crown and go to the championship of the conference tournament. It’s probably not going to happen, but those two teams have a better chance than the teams from the A10. St. Bonaventure has a realistic chance if it can sweep Rhode Island, but the two early losses means there’s almost no room for error. For VCU, it’s going to take a nearly perfect record, with sweeps of Rhode Island and the Bonnies.
- So you’re saying there’s a chance: While it’s incredibly unlikely, it’s not impossible for the Missouri Valley or Conference USA to send two teams to the tournament this year. For the MVC, their teams’ RPI numbers actually allow for more quality wins than the Mountain West or any other mid-major league, so if one team can go on a run with a really impressive conference record, like 15-3 or 14-4, and make it to the conference championship before losing, they’ll be tough to keep out. But those RPI numbers also mean really tough competition every game, which makes it hard to believe that a team can pull that off. The case for the Conference USA really just comes down to the two teams, Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky, who each notched impressive non-conference wins. But one of those two would have to go perfect or nearly-perfect in league play and also make it to the tournament championship to be considered. Even then, it’s a long shot. Finally, Saint Mary’s hope is not completely out of it yet. They’re 15-2 but will legitimately need to end the season no worse than 28-3, with a split against Gonzaga, to be considered.
- Sorry, Charlie: Thanks for playing BYU, New Mexico State and every other Division I team. Hopefully you can win your conference tournaments.
- Bottom line: There’s 11 teams still in the hunt for a maximum of five spots, but a hypothetical betting over/under would probably be more like 0.5 at-large teams from this group. And most of the action would probably be on zero if Nevada and Rhode Island win their tournaments.
Honorable mention: Albany, Bucknell, Florida Gulf Coast, Lipscomb, Towson, UT-Arlington, William & Mary
(Top photo: St. Bonaventure head coach Mark Schmidt; Credit: Adam Lacy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
