Lowetide: As Oilers exit the system, the situation is fluid

Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland and his staff were prepared to improve the roster after evaluating this season, but the Oscar Klefbom news this week added an extra degree of difficulty to the process. While Klefbom weighs his options, including surgery and a long layoff (possibly the season), Holland must contemplate the left side of the defence without his best option at the position.

In a recent conversation with Tim Campbell from NHL.com, Holland addressed the impact of Klefbom’s missing part or all of next season: “Short term, it’s a massive blow. Long term, it’s a good thing we’ve got (Ethan) Broberg, (Evan) Bouchard, (William) Lagesson, (Dmitri) Samorukov, (Ethan Bear), Caleb Jones and Darnell Nurse. Long term, some of those people can grow into it. Short term, it could be a significant blow.”

Prevailing wisdom had Edmonton in need of an upgrade in puck movers on defence, as well as the other areas (goalie, No. 3 centre, scoring winger). If Holland has to find a stopgap replacement for Klefbom, that could take precedence over the other moves simply because of his importance to the team.

It’s unknown how much of Holland’s planned moves might be changed by Klefbom’s possible surgery and absence.

This is Holland’s first real chance to shape the roster in a substantial way. Coach Dave Tippett will have shared areas of need and perhaps identified specific player types who need to be added or upgraded. Two weeks ago, a quality checking centre might have been acquired with a left-handed defenceman, either a prospect or veteran. That avenue might not exist now, at least in the NHL.

How will that affect Holland’s path forward? Who is more likely to be traded now than two weeks ago? Let’s have a look.

Defensive depth chart without Klefbom

The Oilers will miss Klefbom in a big way. He plays major minutes every night and finished No. 5 among NHL defencemen in time on ice per game this season. Puck IQ tells us about the quality of opponent he faced every night and just how big a gap Holland is looking at among replacement options. These are five-on-five numbers versus elite competition:

Nurse and Klefbom, the top lefties on Edmonton’s feature pairings, played the bulk of the five-on-five minutes against elite competition. Nurse’s possession results were superior, but the two were scored on at about equal rates against the league’s best forwards.

Russell and Jones, next in line for Klefbom’s minutes, have stories to tell. Russell was defending more than any in the group (the puck doesn’t get out efficiently and under control often enough with Russell on the defence), but he also delivered the best goals against per 60 minutes. Jones, who has played just 60 NHL games, had better possession stats than Russell and did play more than three minutes a night against elites as a rookie.

Holland and Tippett have internal options for the third pairing (Lagesson played in the AHL last season and Broberg is currently playing in the SHL) but there are no obvious names beyond Russell and Jones to replace Klefbom’s minutes.

Bottom line: That might have been an area of strength for Holland, and there might have been an opportunity to deal from that group to address another area. At this point, all bets are likely off. It does give Lagesson a possible lifeline, but Holland is unlikely to deal Nurse, Jones or Russell without knowing Klefbom’s time of return. The only way I see a trade happening is if Holland signs a free agent and deals an incumbent, which seems unlikely.

Right wing

Lots of talk about the right wings, mostly due to the emergence of Kailer Yamamoto as a regular last season and the apparent thaw in what had become icy relations with Jesse Puljujarvi. If Puljujarvi signs, and it sounds closer now than ever, that would mean a surplus at the position. Here are the even-strength points-per-60 totals and goal differential by Edmonton’s right wingers last year, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick:

Yamamoto’s numbers are out of sight, and it would be unfair to expect him to duplicate them. He is good enough to play on one of the skill lines, and Zack Kassian scored at an impressive level with Connor McDavid as his centre a year ago. Kassian’s play without the puck is the key, and it’s the likely reason he’ll eventually be replaced on the line. As of this moment, Kassian is safe as the other skill option at the position.

Holland just signed Josh Archibald, who will get a chance to improve that ghastly goal differential with another centre next season.

Alex Chiasson appears to be the likely trade piece. He’s already been mentioned several times as an option for trade to the Boston Bruins for young left winger Anders Bjork. His scoring numbers at even strength are low, but he played in the bottom six and posted a positive goal differential, which is an amazing feat considering the bottom six forwards in Edmonton bled out a year ago. He’s also useful on the power play and is a trustworthy veteran.

Nuge?

Frank Seravalli was my guest on The Lowdown on Thursday, and he brought plenty of Oilers news. One item that hadn’t been previously reported: Negotiations with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins have increased gravity. Seravalli wrote for TSN that “the Oilers are believed to have made recent progress with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ camp on a long-term extension. There may actually be some urgency to getting a deal done sooner rather than later, or at the very least knowing in concrete terms whether there is a deal to be had. If Nugent-Hopkins is not in the fold, sources suggest the Oilers are interested in targeting Taylor Hall if he were to hit the free-agent market.”

It sounds like negotiations are progressing and it’s likely we will see Nugent-Hopkins play in Oilers colours for many years to come. That said, it’s possible Holland could flip him for immediate help at one of Edmonton’s weaker spots (goal, No. 3 centre) and move Hall in on left wing to replace him.

What’s that old proverb? May you live in interesting times? I’m not sure what Oilers fans would do if Nugent-Hopkins were suddenly dealt without warning.

Right defence

There’s a thought among fans that Adam Larsson would be a solid choice for a trade, but dealing the veteran leaves Edmonton thin at the position, especially in regard to shutdown types. Here are the numbers (at five-on-five versus elites, as above) from Puck IQ for last season:

The trust Tippett placed in Bear and Larsson is identical to that of Nurse and Klefbom. It’s extremely unlikely Matt Benning would slide into a more prominent role based on his usage a year ago.

One player who might be expendable on right defence is Bouchard. It would have to be a major deal, but there were whispers that Bouchard was involved in negotiations for the Arizona Coyotes’ Oliver Ekman-Larsson before he indicated he wouldn’t move his no-trade rights to join the Oilers. That deal is apparently dead now, although reading the tea leaves suggests never say never.

The No. 14 pick

Oilers fans consider the draft to be home base for each season, and the truth is the draft became the highlight of the season many times over the past decade.

Holland might have to deal the first-round pick, meaning next week’s draft for Edmonton would resemble Death Valley. It may not be an attractive option, but it might be the only one strong enough to move the needle on a substantial deal.

What does it all mean?

Klefbom’s injury changes everything, and that includes the list of players who are on the trading block. A player like Russell or Benning is more likely to stay on for another season, while the No. 14 selection, Chiasson and a highly regarded but unproven prospect like Bouchard could be in play. A trade of Nugent-Hopkins still seems unthinkable, but even a hint of that idea would have been impossible just weeks ago.

Holland and his staff would have carefully weighed all options and might well have decided to deal a feature left defenceman like Klefbom or Nurse this offseason. Those plans are extremely likely to be ashes by now.

Holland needs to add a No. 3 centre, a scoring winger, a goaltender and, after the injury to Klefbom, more defensive insurance. The pieces he uses to accomplish those goals will have changed in the past 10 days.

This could get real in a hurry.

(Photo: Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today)