A word of caution to Bengals head coach Zac Taylor heading into Sunday’s home game against the Browns: a loss could come with consequences in terms of job security.
Since the Browns returned to the NFL in 1999, they have managed just four season sweeps against division opponents in 70 chances. And in each of the last three instances, the head coach who suffered a sweep at the hands of the Browns got fired — the Bengals’ Marvin Lewis in 2018, the Bengals’ Dick LeBeau in 2002 and the Ravens’ Brian Billick in 2007.
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The Browns already own a 35-30 victory against the Bengals this season, and they come into Paul Brown Stadium as three-point favorites.
The Bengals, are playing better since that Week 2 Thursday night loss even if their 1-4-1 record doesn’t reflect it. The run defense is better (mainly because it couldn’t have gotten worse after allowing the Browns to rush for 215 yards), the offensive line has improved and, most importantly, rookie quarterback Joe Burrow continues to ascend.
Burrow threw for 316 yards and three touchdowns in Cleveland, but it took 61 attempts to get there. If he drops back anywhere near that number of times Sunday, the Bengals will be in danger of suffering a second sweep by the Browns in three years.
Using Next Gen Stats and other data from Sport Radar, Sports Information Solutions and NFL GSIS, here’s a look at how the teams match up:
Quarterback
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The parallels here are plentiful, with both being college transfers, Heisman winners and No. 1 overall picks. But the once bright future for Baker Mayfield is clouded with doubt, while Burrow looks to be everything the Bengals were hoping for. Of course, everyone in Cleveland thought the same thing six games into Mayfield’s run as the starter.
It would be interesting to poll Browns fans now to see how many would want a straight swap of the two quarterbacks. I’m guessing that number would be north of two-thirds.
Against the blitz
|
Player
|
CMP-ATT
|
YDS
|
TD-INT
|
RTG
|
SACK
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
43-68
|
487
|
3-2
|
87.1
|
10
|
|
|
39-61
|
413
|
4-1
|
98.6
|
7
|
Mayfield has been better when pressured, as you would expect when comparing a quarterback with 36 career starts to one with six.
The Browns defense ranks in the bottom third of the league in blitz frequency, sending pressure just 24 percent of the time. That number was right in line with what they did in Week 2, blitzing Burrow on 25 percent of his dropbacks.
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The Bengals are middle of the pack in blitz percentage, ranking 17th at 29 percent. But against the Browns last month, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo sent pressure 61 percent of the time. There’s only been one game since he joined the Bengals that Anarumo has blitzed more often — Week 14 in Cleveland last year when he came after Mayfield on 65 percent of dropbacks.
It worked last year, with Mayfield 7 of 15 for 139 yards with no touchdowns and an interception against pressure. It didn’t work in Week 2, as Mayfield was 11 of 14 for 144 yards and two touchdowns.
On play-action
|
Player
|
CMP-ATT
|
YDS
|
TD-INT
|
RTG
|
SACK
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
30-50
|
313
|
2-1
|
83.2
|
7
|
|
|
31-49
|
409
|
4-1
|
108.3
|
3
|
Both teams will be without their top running backs with Nick Chubb on IR for the Browns and Joe Mixon out with a foot injury for the Bengals.
Mayfield used play-action on 10 of his 23 passes in Week 2, completing five for 87 yards with a touchdown and a pick.
With the Bengals averaging just 3.1 yards per carry last week in Indianapolis, Burrow had his most inefficient play-action performance of the season, going 2 of 9 for 13 yards.
Running backs vs. linebackers
Bengals RBs
|
Player
|
INSIDE ATT (YPC)
|
OFF TACKLE
|
OUTSIDE
|
BROKEN TACKLES
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
52 (4.7)
|
45 (2.5)
|
22 (3.2)
|
11
|
|
|
9 (4.4)
|
1 (2.0)
|
2 (1.0)
|
1
|
Mixon’s absence could create some long-awaited opportunities for Trayveon Williams. Last year’s sixth-round pick has yet to log an NFL carry.
Giovani Bernard most likely to get the bulk of the carries, but his attempts last week were his highest in the Taylor era. And it’s been more than two calendar years since Bernard, who will be 29 next month, has had double-digit carries in a game. Samaje Perine will be the other active running back, as Taylor ruled out dressing rookie XFL import Jacques Patrick.
Browns LBs
|
Player
|
BKN+MISS TKLS (%)
|
SACK (%)
|
PRESSURE (%)
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
3 (6.0)
|
3.6
|
14.3
|
|
|
1 (3.7)
|
0
|
8.3
|
|
|
3 (8.6)
|
0
|
33.3
|
|
|
1 (11.1)
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
1 (16.7)
|
0
|
50
|
|
Player
|
CMP-ATT
|
YARDS
|
TD-INT-PBU
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
24-33
|
205
|
2-1-2
|
|
|
16-22
|
124
|
0-1-2
|
|
|
9-13
|
112
|
0-0-0
|
|
|
2-2
|
16
|
0-0-0
|
|
|
3-4
|
34
|
0-0-1
|
The Browns rank fourth in the NFL against the run, which means the Bengals are facing a top-five run defense for the third week in a row. The Ravens were ranked third ahead of their Week 5 contest, and the Colts ranked third heading into last week.
Sione Takitaki is ranked 12th among linebackers in Pro Football Focus’ run-stop metric.
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Browns RBs
|
Player
|
INSIDE (ATT-YPC)
|
OFF TACKLE
|
OUTSIDE
|
BROKEN TACKLES
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6 (1.8)
|
36 (5.7)
|
15 (7.9)
|
14
|
|
|
19 (3.8)
|
48 (5.1)
|
16 (4.5)
|
17
|
|
|
5 (2.2)
|
21 (5.8)
|
0 (0.0)
|
4
|
|
|
2 (1.5)
|
5 (6.4)
|
2 (6.5)
|
1
|
The Browns had been using Chubb to pound defenses before springing Kareem Hunt on them as a change-of-pace back. Hunt didn’t get his first touch until late in the second quarter in the first Battle of Ohio. Mayfield then targeted him twice on the next seven snaps, the second of which resulted in a six-yard touchdown pass that sent the Browns into halftime with a 21-10 lead.
D’Ernest Johnson is a bigger, stronger back in the mold of Chubb, but the Browns have mainly been featuring Hunt from start to finish the last few weeks. His 20 carries in Week 5 against the Colts were his most since joining the Browns. The Bengals should expect to see a similar load Sunday, even though Hunt has just 112 yards on 33 carries (3.4 average) since replacing Chubb as the starter.
Bengals LBs
|
Player
|
BKN+MISS TKLS (%)
|
SACK (%)
|
PRESSURE (%)
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
9 (19.6)
|
9.1
|
27.3
|
|
|
3 (9.1)
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
0 (0.0)
|
0
|
5.3
|
|
|
2 (14.3)
|
2.8
|
16.7
|
|
|
0 (0.0)
|
33.3
|
33.3
|
|
Player
|
CMP-ATT
|
YARDS
|
TD-INT-PBU
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
9-11
|
87
|
0-0-0
|
|
|
16-22
|
124
|
0-0-1
|
|
|
7-7
|
66
|
1-2-2
|
|
|
8-13
|
103
|
0-0-1
|
|
|
1-2
|
9
|
0-1-1
|
Akeem Davis-Gaither has been solid in coverage in his first six games, but he’ll be tested by Hunt, whether it be on designed screens or check-downs when the Bengals drop seven. Davis-Gaither’s role has continued to increase, as has that of fellow rookie Logan Wilson.
“Game plans change each and every week depending on who we are playing, what kind of offense we are going to see,” Wilson said. “I think it’s obvious I am primarily used on third-down packages. Whatever my job is each and every week I want to do it to the best of my ability because I want to help this team win.”
Pass catchers vs. coverage
Bengals production spread
|
Player
|
% OF REC
|
% OF TGT
|
% OF REC YDS
|
% OF REC TDS
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
23.1
|
20.1
|
27.8
|
16.7
|
|
|
13.8
|
18.8
|
13.2
|
0
|
|
|
13.1
|
10.9
|
8.5
|
16.7
|
|
|
13.8
|
15.9
|
20.8
|
33.3
|
|
|
8.8
|
7.9
|
7.5
|
0
|
|
|
10
|
8.4
|
7.1
|
0
|
|
|
6.9
|
5.9
|
4.8
|
16.7
|
|
|
2.5
|
2.5
|
3.4
|
0
|
|
|
1.3
|
2.9
|
1
|
0
|
|
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
1.5
|
0
|
|
|
0.6
|
0.8
|
0.6
|
0
|
Bengals positioning and separation
|
Player
|
WIDE RT/G
|
SLOT RT/G
|
SEP @ THROW
|
SEP @ CATCH
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.3
|
30.5
|
3.23
|
2.19
|
|
|
24.8
|
7
|
2.49
|
1.35
|
|
|
23.2
|
7.7
|
3.2
|
2.31
|
|
|
3.8
|
5.3
|
3.92
|
2.87
|
|
|
2.5
|
2
|
5.58
|
4.67
|
|
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
5.02
|
3.48
|
|
|
10.7
|
2
|
2.88
|
1.65
|
|
|
10.7
|
7.3
|
3.23
|
2.19
|
|
|
5.3
|
3.3
|
3.39
|
5.15
|
|
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
3.38
|
1.06
|
|
|
1.3
|
2
|
3.09
|
2.19
|
A.J. Green had his first big game of the season last week, and the Bengals will look to keep that connection with Burrow going. The first meeting with the Browns was one of the low points of the year for Green, as he was targeted 13 times and finished with just three catches for 29 yards.
Just the threat of Green returning to a semblance of his old form should help create opportunities for Tee Higgins.
The rookie receiver, like Burrow, has continued to improve with each passing week and is coming off a game in which he caught the team’s longest pass play of the Taylor era, a 67-yard deep ball down the right sideline in Indianapolis.
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Browns coverage
|
Player
|
CMP-ATT
|
YARDS
|
TD-INT-PBU
|
BKN+MISS TKLS (%)
|
PEN-(DEC)-YDS
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
31-51
|
422
|
2-0-6
|
4 (11.8)
|
1-(0)-5
|
|
|
20-38
|
237
|
4-1-8
|
1 (5.6)
|
2-(1)-15
|
|
|
17-22
|
308
|
3-0-0
|
8 (18.6)
|
1-(0)-15
|
|
|
16-20
|
142
|
1-0-0
|
1 (4.0)
|
1-(0)-15
|
|
|
8-16
|
82
|
3-1-1
|
2 (8.7)
|
1-(0)-3
|
|
|
6-9
|
38
|
0-0-1
|
1 (7.7)
|
0-(0)-0
|
|
|
3-6
|
48
|
1-1-3
|
0 (0.0)
|
0-(0)-0
|
|
|
3-5
|
36
|
0-0-0
|
0 (0.0)
|
1-(1)-0
|
|
|
2-2
|
8
|
0-1-1
|
2 (18.2)
|
2-(0)-30
|
Burrow is familiar with Browns corner Denzel Ward from their days at Ohio State, and Ward had three of his eight passes defended in the Week 2 matchup.
Browns production spread
|
Player
|
% OF REC
|
% OF TGT
|
% OF REC YDS
|
% OF REC TDS
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
25.3
|
13.9
|
26.7
|
27.3
|
|
|
19.9
|
13.3
|
17.1
|
9.1
|
|
|
19.9
|
14.5
|
26.7
|
0
|
|
|
10.8
|
7.8
|
6.7
|
27.3
|
|
|
7.8
|
4.8
|
5.9
|
9.1
|
|
|
4.2
|
3
|
5.3
|
9.1
|
|
|
3.6
|
1.8
|
4.3
|
0
|
|
|
3.6
|
3
|
4.4
|
18.2
|
|
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
1.4
|
0
|
|
|
1.8
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
0
|
|
|
0.9
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0
|
|
|
0.9
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0
|
Browns positioning and separation
|
Player
|
WIDE RT/G
|
SLOT RT/G
|
SEP @ THROW
|
SEP @ CATCH
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
23.8
|
4.3
|
3.16
|
2.55
|
|
|
2.0
|
6.0
|
3.26
|
2.81
|
|
|
12.0
|
12.7
|
3.10
|
2.88
|
|
|
1.5
|
0.8
|
3.91
|
4.71
|
|
|
1.8
|
6.7
|
3.28
|
3.35
|
|
|
0.3
|
3.7
|
3.13
|
3.51
|
|
|
11.0
|
3.7
|
3.01
|
1.30
|
|
|
9.5
|
3.5
|
3.46
|
3.34
|
|
|
2.8
|
0.5
|
3.61
|
0.90
|
|
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
5.38
|
2.37
|
|
|
0.5
|
0.0
|
4.60
|
3.53
|
|
|
0.0
|
1.3
|
5.10
|
0.18
|
Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry were on pace for huge games against the Bengals in September before the Browns switched directions and started exploiting the Cincinnati run defense for the final two and a half quarters.
The Browns have been getting Hunt and tight end Austin Hooper much more involved in the passing game of late. Hooper had just seven catches through the first three games, but he logged five receptions in each of the last three and led the team in targets in the Week 5 win against the Colts. Hooper was ruled out Friday after undergoing an appendectomy, so it will be interesting to see if David Njoku, who only has five catches, can be as productive with the increased role.
Bengals coverage
|
Player
|
CMP-ATT
|
YARDS
|
TD-INT-PBU
|
BKN+MISS TKLS (%)
|
PEN-(DEC)-YDS
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
15-28
|
158
|
2-1-1
|
1 (4.3)
|
2-(1)-19
|
|
|
9-12
|
136
|
1-0-0
|
2 (11.8)
|
0-(0)-0
|
|
|
8-18
|
129
|
0-0-3
|
2 (10.5)
|
3-(0)-19
|
|
|
16-23
|
199
|
2-1-2
|
3 (16.7)
|
1-(0)-17
|
|
|
4-12
|
39
|
0-0-6
|
6 (11.8)
|
2-(1)-9
|
|
|
9-15
|
108
|
1-0-0
|
3 (6.4)
|
1-(0)-5
|
|
|
0-1
|
0
|
0-0-0
|
0 (0.0)
|
0-(0)-0
|
Will Jackson’s absence due to a concussion is a huge blow for a Bengals secondary that has struggled to get solid performances from any other corners in recent weeks.
It figures to be Darius Phillips and LeShaun Sims on the outside and Mackensie Alexander in his regular spot in the slot. Philip Rivers carved up the Bengals last week, and Jackson’s absence is going to be welcomed by Mayfield, who has struggled with accuracy for most of the season.
Offensive line vs. pass rush
Bengals OL
|
Player
|
MISS RUSH BLK (%)
|
MISS PASS BLK (%)
|
PEN-(DEC)-YDS
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
5 (3.4)
|
7 (2.6)
|
1-(0)-10
|
|
|
1 (0.7)
|
5 (1.8)
|
1-(0)-5
|
|
|
4 (2.7)
|
2 (0.7)
|
3-(1)-15
|
|
|
0 (0.0)
|
4 (3.4)
|
4-(0)-30
|
|
|
3 (2.0)
|
9 (3.3)
|
2-(0)-5
|
|
|
1 (2.6)
|
6 (6.5)
|
2-(0)-15
|
|
|
0 (0.0)
|
3 (6.1)
|
2-(0)-15
|
The unit continues to improve after starting the same five players in three consecutive games with Alex Redmond settling in at right guard while Xavier Su’a-Filo recovers from the ankle injury he suffered in the season opener.
“They’ve gotten better every time they’ve gone out there,” offensive coordinator Brian Callahan said. “Alex gives us some physicality. He plays hard, he knows what to do. He’s big and solid and strong at the point of attack. And now they’ve got a couple games playing together, too, so that also helps. Jonah (Williams) is getting his first six full games and Mike (Jordan) is in there now. Having those guys in there together has definitely helped us. The communication part of it has been much improved. (Redmond) has definitely lent some stability in that sense. By no means has it been perfect, but those guys are battling. They fight and are doing everything they can to give us a chance to win.”
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Browns pass rush
|
Player
|
SACKS
|
QB HIT %
|
PRESS/G
|
HURRY/G
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7
|
6.2
|
4.2
|
2.3
|
|
|
2
|
3.4
|
2
|
1.8
|
|
|
0
|
3.8
|
1.2
|
1
|
|
|
0
|
1.8
|
1.3
|
1
|
|
|
0
|
2.5
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
|
|
0
|
4.8
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
|
|
2
|
2.9
|
1.2
|
0.8
|
Myles Garrett made a couple of impact plays in the Week 2 game, most notably beating Fred Johnson on an inside rush to strip Burrow of the ball at the Bengals two-yard line, and he’s been doing the same thing in every other game this year.
Garrett won’t be the sole concern for the Bengals, but he’ll be the primary focus.
“He’s their best rusher and he might be the best rusher in football,” Callahan said. “He makes impact plays whenever they come up. They lead the league in turnovers with 12 and he’s a large part of that, both in forcing fumbles, sack fumbles, and in forcing the quarterbacks into throws they don’t want to make. He’s a factor. And he gets to go wherever he feels like he can go win.”
Browns OL
|
Player
|
MISS RUSH BLK (%)
|
MISS PASS BLK (%)
|
PEN-(DEC)-YDS
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
4 (2.3)
|
7 (3.7)
|
4-(0)-25
|
|
|
4 (2.2)
|
2 (1.0)
|
0-(0)-0
|
|
|
2 (1.1)
|
3 (1.5)
|
1-(0)-10
|
|
|
3 (2.2)
|
2 (1.4)
|
4-(0)-40
|
|
|
1 (0.7)
|
2 (1.2)
|
1-(0)-10
|
|
|
0 (0.0)
|
1 (12.5)
|
0-(0)-0
|
|
|
1 (8.3)
|
0 (0.0)
|
0-(0)-0
|
|
|
2 (2.4)
|
2 (2.3)
|
0-(0)-0
|
Right guard Wyatt Teller will miss a second consecutive game with a calf injury while center JC Tretter has been limited with a knee. Those could be issues for a Browns offensive line that ranks fourth in fewest pressures allowed per game (6.0) and 10th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate metric.
That group continues to improve under the first-year leadership of veteran coach Bill Callahan, Brian’s father.
“I’d rather he not be in our division,” Brian said. “We’d made it quite a long time without having to be coaching in the same division. In fact, for most of our careers, we’ve been in different conferences, so we’ve not had to cross paths too much. I’m biased obviously, that’s my dad and he’s my hero and the guy I look up to, but I think he’s one of the best coaches in the league at his position and one of the finest in the league period.”
Bengals pass rush
|
Player
|
SACKS
|
QB HIT %
|
PRESS/G
|
HURRY/G
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
2
|
0.8
|
1
|
|
|
0
|
3.2
|
0.8
|
1
|
|
|
3.5
|
6
|
3
|
1.7
|
|
|
0
|
1.7
|
0.3
|
0.5
|
|
|
0
|
4.7
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
|
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
0
|
5.1
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
The biggest question here is whether the Bengals will give Geno Atkins a chance to rush the passer on first and second down. He’s been relegated to mostly a sub package third-down guy in his first two weeks back from a shoulder injury. But the Bengals are no longer listing “shoulder” next to Atkins on the injury report. He had a veteran day off Wednesday and was limited Thursday, again due to rest, not the shoulder.
Mike Daniels, who missed three games with a shoulder injury, will be back to help bolster the injury-ravaged line.
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