The Eagles resume their season Sunday against the Giants. After a lackluster first half that somehow has them positioned as the favorites in the NFC East, what will the second half of the season bring?
Zach Berman and Sheil Kapadia each offer five predictions — some bold, some not so bold.
Berman’s predictions
1. Carson Wentz won’t reach 20 interceptions
As turnover-prone as Wentz has been through the first eight games — 16 turnovers, including 12 interceptions — he’s not going to reach 20 interceptions this season. That means Wentz would remain under a pace of one interception per game despite throwing multiple interceptions in five of eight games.
Advertisement
History is on Wentz’s side. He’s had problems with fumbles in his career, but he’s mostly been a low-interception quarterback. Wentz hasn’t topped seven interceptions in any of the past three seasons. He knows how to make smart decisions in the passing game. This is not to suggest Wentz’s performance will be what’s needed of a franchise quarterback, but he’ll reduce the interceptions. Since Wentz entered the league in 2016, there have been only five quarterbacks who’ve thrown 20 or more interceptions in a season: Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield and Philip Rivers in 2019; DeShone Kizer in 2017; and Rivers in 2016. Wentz has had 31 games in his career without an interception. He’ll add to that total in the second half.
Kapadia: Winston? Kizer? Yeah, that’s not a group you want to be a part of. I’m with you on this one. Wentz had interception rates of 1.6 percent, 1.7 percent and 1.2 percent in each season from 2017 to 2019. This year, he’s all the way up to 3.9 percent through eight games. While there’s some evidence that Wentz benefitted from good interception luck in past years, it feels like he’s had some bad luck this season. I think he can avoid 20 interceptions.
By the way, if we would have told readers before the season that this would be one of your predictions for the second half, how depressed would they have been?
2. The Eagles will win all three NFC East games — and at least one other game
The Eagles might need only six victories to make the playoffs, but my guess is they’ll have at least seven wins. They’ll beat the Giants, Washington and Dallas. They have a talent advantage in each game, and Doug Pederson’s teams tend to play better later in the season. The Giants game this weekend is key. Those last two NFC East games will be in Weeks 16 and 17, when the Cowboys and the Football Team might be playing young players and more focused on draft position.
Advertisement
The Eagles have been inconsistent and they’re not a particularly good team, but I don’t think they’ll go 0-5 against Cleveland, Seattle, New Orleans, Green Bay and Arizona. They’ll likely be underdogs in each of those games, and all five teams are playoff-caliber, but the Eagles should be able to escape one of them with a victory. (It might be too ambitious to expect them to win more than one, though.)
Kapadia: I’ll take the other side here. I actually don’t think there’s much of a difference between them and the other NFC East teams right now. Maybe that will change, and the Eagles will find their way, but I think they lose one of their remaining division games.
3. The Eagles will finish with fewer sacks in the second half of the season than the first half
The Eagles rank third in the NFL with 28 sacks this season, and they’re on pace for the most sacks in the Jim Schwartz era. (They had 44 in 2018 and 43 last season.) That sack production will decline in the final eight games. This isn’t exactly a stretch; only two teams have reached 56 sacks in a season since 2016: the Jaguars and Steelers in 2017.
But this prediction is more based on the opponents than history. The Eagles racked up their sack totals against inexperienced quarterbacks such as Joe Burrow, Ben DiNucci, Dwayne Haskins, Nick Mullens and Daniel Jones. They had less success against Ben Roethlisberger and Jared Goff. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Mayfield and Kyler Murray are among the least-sacked quarterbacks in the league. It’s going to be harder for the Eagles to bring down those passers. They should still finish near the top of the league in sacks, but if you’re expecting them to reach 56 sacks, temper expectations.
Kapadia: I am a believer in this pass rush and think there’s a chance it’s even better in the second half of the season if Javon Hargrave can get going. But water gun to my back, I would take your side. The Saints, Packers and Browns have very good offensive lines, and like you said, DiNucci ain’t walking through that door.
Advertisement
4. Jalen Reagor finishes the season with at least 40 offensive touches
Reagor has only eight catches and one rush, so he’d need to accumulate 31 offensive touches in the final eight games (about four per game) to reach 40. And he would need to do it with more weapons in the passing game, including Travis Fulgham, Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz (eventually), Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffery. So this prediction is on the bolder side. But my guess is Reagor becomes a featured weapon in the offense. The Eagles won’t just look for him deep; they’ll also go to him in the short passing game to take advantage of his run-after-catch ability. And a few designed runs could bolster his touch total. Nelson Agholor had five rushes in his first year in Pederson’s offense. The Eagles should use Reagor on jet sweeps. Reagor was targeted six times against the Cowboys and four times in each of his first three games. He has caught 57 percent of his targets this season. The question is whether the targets will be there. Look for Reagor to become a major contributor.
Kapadia: Reagor is on the short list of things to look forward to in the second half of the season. This is a tough one though, because there are suddenly going to be a lot of mouths to feed. I liked how the Eagles schemed up some ways to get Reagor the ball in space in Week 8 against Dallas. I think they’ll definitely try to get him involved every week. But four receptions per game is not easy. This season, only four rookies have averaged that many. So I would probably take the other side on this one.
5. T.J. Edwards leads the linebackers in defensive snaps in the final eight games
The Eagles’ undistinguished group of linebackers has had one player whose playing time exceeds the rest: Nate Gerry. But with Gerry out at least two more games, they could reconfigure the rotation. And my guess is Edwards, despite whatever athletic limitations he possesses, will deserve to be on the field as a top-two linebacker. This is not recency bias or an overreaction to Edwards’ performance against the Cowboys, which was the best game of his career. And I acknowledge he still needs to show he can hold up in coverage. Still, Edwards is the linebacker I’d trust the most on the field after watching the Eagles during training camp and throughout the season.
“He’s a strong player. He can fill those interior gaps,” Schwartz said. “He’s probably our best linebacker when it comes to being physical at the line of scrimmage and taking on guards and tackles and taking offensive linemen off of double teams and things like that and he’s a reliable tackler.”
In a space game, that could be faint praise. But he might prove effective enough in coverage to keep on the field.
Kapadia: No mention of Alex Singleton? The disrespect is appalling. Edwards is smart, tough and a good tackler. I think he can make up for some athletic limitations with his anticipation. Having said that, I need to see more from him in coverage. The same could probably be said for Singleton, but he’s the guy I would take here.
![](https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2020/11/02225058/GettyImages-1283432333-scaled-e1604375687672.jpg)
Kapadia’s predictions
6. Travis Fulgham finishes with 1,100 yards
I was initially going to say 1,000, but if we’re going to be bold, let’s be bold! Fulgham has averaged 87 yards per game. If he maintains that pace, he’ll exceed 1,100 yards. But that won’t be easy. Only six other players have averaged at least 87 yards per game this season. Over the years, we’ve seen that when Wentz trusts a receiver, he feeds him. Wentz and Fulgham have developed a strong chemistry. Fulgham has excellent hands. He’s a good route-runner and has tremendous instincts for finding soft spots in zone coverage. I don’t think his performance has been fluky. Fulgham is capable of having a monster second half.
Advertisement
Berman: This is a good one. I was debating a Fulgham prediction and agree that his performance to date hasn’t been fluky. If you went with your initial prediction and said 1,000 yards, I’d be on board. But I’ll stop short of 1,100 yards. I think his past three games are a representative sample of a per-game expectation: 5.7 catches, 75.3 yards. If he stays at that pace, he’d finish with around 90 catches and 1,038 yards. All it would take is one Pittsburgh-like performance (10 catches, 152 yards) to push him over 1,100 yards. But if you’re going to account for one outlier above the mean, then there’s a possibility of an outlier below the mean. Plus, there will be more mouths for Wentz to feed in the second half. (Then again, perhaps fewer drives will end with a turnover.) So I’m going to say Fulgham narrowly misses 1,100, but he exceeds 1,000.
7. Zach Ertz plays his last game as an Eagle
His contract squabble with the Eagles has just felt so similar to the Malcolm Jenkins situation last season. Ertz is a great Eagle and will always be a Super Bowl hero. He’s also one of Wentz’s closest friends on the team. But he’s 30 and under contract through 2021. I have a tough time seeing the Eagles offering Ertz a contract extension given what he’s looking for. And I have a tough time seeing Ertz being content to play out the final year of his deal next season. Maybe I’m wrong. It’s possible Ertz returns from injury, rediscovers his chemistry with Wentz, has a great second half, and the two sides figure out a solution. But it’s just as likely the two sides won’t see eye to eye and the Eagles move on from Ertz in the offseason.
Berman: I’m in agreement on this one. Frankly, I’ve been under this impression since the summer — and it was apparent in Week 1 this could be headed for a divorce. If they couldn’t reach a deal before the pandemic created uncertainty about the 2021 salary cap and after Travis Kelce and George Kittle signed extensions, then I can’t imagine they’ll reach one after how this season has transpired. The Jenkins comparison is apt. Ertz is one of the best players in Eagles history and should be remembered (and treated) as such, but this is the business they’ve chosen.
8. Jalen Hurts takes over at QB for a game or a half
There is such a wide range of outcomes for Wentz in the remaining eight games. It would not surprise me to see him perform like a top-10 quarterback. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see him continue to struggle. Wentz looked lost over the first eight games, and the coaching staff didn’t look like it had many answers for him. In Wentz’s last game before the bye, he was a disaster against a bad Cowboys defense. That was the first time I thought a benching could be in play at some point. I have to think that Pederson, Howie Roseman and Jeffrey Lurie have had conversations about what to do if Wentz has another game like that or multiple games like that in a row. Maybe it’s a situation like what we saw with Donovan McNabb against the Ravens in 2008 when Andy Reid benched him for Kevin Kolb in the second half. Maybe it’s more than that. But I think at some point in 2020 the Eagles will see what the offense looks like with Hurts at quarterback.
Berman: I disagree with this one based on performance, but would agree if it’s not factor-dependent. I don’t envision the Eagles benching Wentz because he’s not playing well enough. If they didn’t do it against Dallas after his fourth turnover, I’m not sure there’s going to be a “better” time. But I can get on board with this prediction if it’s not strictly performance-related. Wentz, as you might have heard, has an injury history. Plus, there’s a real possibility the Eagles have a playoff spot/seed clinched by Week 17. So it might make sense for them to start Hurts or give him significant playing time if they aren’t playing for anything against Washington and have a playoff game the next week. Am I allowed to add that caveat?
9. The Eagles win a playoff game
Let’s get crazy. This one might not seem to align with my previous prediction, but a lot can happen over the course of eight games. The Eagles are significant favorites to win the NFC East. The three other teams have at least two more losses than them. Wentz could be playing with a supporting cast of Fulgham, Reagor, Ertz, Goedert and Sanders. That’s pretty good. The offensive line should be healthier, too. The defensive line has been great, and Darius Slay has played at a high level. Would it be that crazy for Wentz to eventually find his way and for the Eagles to peak in December? We’ve seen it before under Pederson. And if they win the division, they’ll host a wild-card game. Right now, their opponent would be the Buccaneers. It could also be a team like the Rams or Bears. You’re telling me they couldn’t beat one of those two in a playoff matchup?
OK, I think I’ve talked Eagles fans into a Super Bowl run. I don’t know whether to say “you’re welcome” or “I’m sorry.”
Advertisement
Berman: Matchups matter in the playoffs. The best matchup for them (and best storyline for us) would be hosting Nick Foles and the Bears. If that’s the case, I’ll take the Eagles. I would take Tampa Bay over the Eagles, though. As for the Rams, it was a mismatch in September. Would it be the same with cold temperatures in January? That’s a harder game to assess. I’m going to lean toward no on this prediction, but I don’t believe it’s farfetched. And if it’s the right matchup, I’d certainly pick an Eagles win.
10. Brandon Graham leads the league in sacks
This will be tough, but it’s not crazy. Graham has seven sacks, which is tied for fourth in the league. Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett have nine apiece. Trey Hendrickson has 7.5. Donald and Garrett, at least, are going to attract a lot more attention from opponents than Graham does. There’s been nothing fluky about his sack total. Graham has 11 quarterback hits and has been consistent, durable and disruptive. It also helps that he plays next to Fletcher Cox, which means he should be able to clean up and steal some cheap ones. Is Graham the favorite over guys like Donald, Garrett and T.J. Watt? No. But he’s played some of the best football of his career and has a chance.
Berman: Graham’s having the best season of his career, and should earn Pro Bowl honors (for a game that won’t be played) and potentially All-Pro recognition. But he’s two sacks behind Garrett and Donald, who aren’t going to slow down. Can he stay ahead of other proven pass rushers such as Watt and Za’Darius Smith? If he were the one with the two-sack lead at this point, I’d agree with you. But I’m thinking a top 5 finish is more likely. By the way, it’s not unheard of for a player to lead the league in sacks in his age-32 season. Robert Mathis did it in 2013 with a career-high 19.5 sacks. Michael Strahan did it in 2003 with 18.5 sacks.
(Top photo of Travis Fulgham and Trevon Diggs: Derik Hamilton / Associated Press)