Since taking over as the Dolphins’ starting quarterback, rookie Tua Tagovailoa is 3-0. Miami, currently one of the hottest and most exciting teams in the NFL, is on a five-game win streak heading into Denver this weekend.
As the teams prepare to meet in Week 11 at Empower Field at Mile High, The Athletic’s beat writers from Denver and Miami provide analysis and discuss what they’ll be watching for on Sunday.
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Key matchups
Broncos reporter Nick Kosmider: How does Drew Lock or Brett Rypien fare against the Dolphins’ opportunistic pass defense? These two Denver quarterbacks — as of late Thursday afternoon, it was still unclear which would start Sunday as Lock continues to contend with a rib injury — have thrown a combined 14 interceptions in the nine games they have collectively played this season. That’s one interception for every 19.8 pass attempts. To put that into context, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 77 passes in his four appearances without an interception. That major weakness for the Broncos is running headfirst into a strength for the Dolphins, who have intercepted eight passes (five by ace cornerback Xavien Howard) and have also consistently turned quarterback pressure into turnovers during their streak. If the Broncos continue their lopsided defeats in the turnover-margin department — Denver was a minus-five (!) in its 37-12 loss to the Raiders last week — they will give themselves little chance Sunday. Denver must build a plan for Lock or Rypien that makes ball security the first, second and third priority.
Dolphins reporter Josh Tolentino: Any key matchup moving forward this season must always involve rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He’s on a roll since taking over as the starter with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. More importantly, Tagovailoa looks more comfortable in the pocket with each game and the offense continues to evolve around him. Each week, offensive coordinator Chan Gailey continues to reveal more wrinkles in his play calling with schemes that benefit Tagovailoa’s strength as a quick decision-maker. The Dolphins have nearly doubled their play-action usage with Tagovailoa compared with Ryan Fitzpatrick, allowing Tagovailoa to evade early pressure and scan the field. Vic Fangio is well known as a defensive-minded coach, but Denver’s defense isn’t all that intimidating right now, which bodes well for Tagovailoa and Co.
Rookie watch
Kosmider: Jerry Jeudy is on pace to do what no rookie Broncos wide receiver has ever done: rack up 1,000 yards in a season. The No. 15 overall pick out of Alabama, one of Tagovailoa’s favorite college targets, has really found his groove over the past three weeks.
Here is a look at the production he has amassed since Week 8, with his rank among rookie wide receivers during that stretch in parentheses:
Receptions | Yards | Yds/rec | TD | |
15 (tie 2nd) | 266 (1st) | 17.7 (2nd) | 1 (tie 3rd) |
But the rookie with the tallest task Sunday is center Lloyd Cushenberry, who has had an up-and-down ride through his first NFL season. The Dolphins love to disguise blitzes at the line of scrimmage, constantly shifting to hide any clues as to what they’ll do when the ball is snapped. Fangio said Thursday it will be up to the entire protection unit to help ease some of the burden for Cushenberry, the third-round pick out of LSU.
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Tolentino: Undrafted rookie Salvon Ahmed earned the start at running back last week and jetted off with the opportunity. He finished with 85 rushing yards and one touchdown, which marked the second-highest rushing total by any Miami player this season. He showed patience, quickness and burst on his way to multiple gains of 10-plus yards and earned praise from Tagovailoa for his blocking ability as well. Denver allows 122.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks 23rd in the NFL and one spot behind Miami (128.1, 22nd). Gailey has changed his game plan each week depending on the opposition, so he might fine-tune the offense a bit to feature both Ahmed and running back Matt Breida, who seems poised to make a return after missing last week with a hamstring injury.
Injury report
Kosmider: It could start at the most important position for the Broncos. Lock practiced on a limited basis Thursday after not participating in Wednesday’s session. The final seven games of this season are an important audition for Lock in his quest to remain Denver’s quarterback going forward, but rib injuries are tricky. If he’s unable to play, the Broncos will turn to Rypien, a former undrafted player out of Boise State who began this season on the practice squad but led a fourth-quarter comeback during the Broncos’ Week 4 win over the Jets.
The Broncos remain decimated along the defensive line. Jurrell Casey and Mike Purcell suffered season-ending injuries during the season’s first half and Shelby Harris, who was in the middle of a career season, is expected to miss his third straight game while on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Those absences have taken some real punch out of Denver’s 3-4 attack and have caused big leaks in the run game the past few weeks.
Tolentino: Miami has a couple of offensive players on injured reserve (wide receiver Preston Williams and running back Myles Gaskin), but the Dolphins head to Denver with a relatively healthy group. Only linebacker Kyle Van Noy (hip) and rookie right guard Solomon Kindley (foot) are listed as questionable. Van Noy is more important considering his role as a team captain and the defensive play-call communicator. If Kindley is unable to go, the Dolphins have proved they’re capable with Jesse Davis and rookie Robert Hunt on the right side of the offensive line. Tagovailoa was listed on the injury report this week with a foot injury, but it seems to be a non-issue issue as he was a full participant in all three practices. Defensive lineman Christian Wilkins remains on the reserve/COVID-19 list, and quality control coach Kolby Smith will be unavailable.
Look out for . . .
Kosmider: The special teams battle. Miami has built one of the league’s most productive units this season. Dolphins coach Brian Flores began his career as a special teams assistant and the focus and attention to detail he puts into that game is evident. The Broncos, meanwhile, have stacked up one mistake after another in that third phase of the game. Questionable return decisions, dropped snaps, blocked punts, costly penalties, lack of explosiveness. The list of issues for Denver is extensive. Given Denver’s offensive struggles and Miami’s ability to turn games on the defensive end, the Broncos could really use a clean game on special teams. Preventing Jakeem Grant from snapping off big returns would also help.
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Tolentino: More 13 personnel and tight end action. After losing Williams to injury, the Dolphins unleashed plenty of 13 personnel against the Chargers, featuring tight ends Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe and Adam Shaheen. Williams’ spot as the team’s second receiver was filled mostly by fellow wide receiver Jakeem Grant and Gesicki. Grant continues to build nice chemistry with Tagovailoa. Over the past two weeks, Grant has eight catches, 88 receiving yards and one touchdown. Meanwhile, Gesicki has been relatively quiet over the past four games with just six catches and zero touchdowns. The Dolphins had success both in rushing and passing when utilizing 13 personnel last week, and Smythe continues to improve as a pass-catching tight end.
Prediction
Kosmider: The last thing the Broncos needed was another week of uncertainty about the quarterback spot. Lock was already struggling mightily — his 55 percent completion rate is the worst among full-time quarterbacks this season — and now he is working through an injury and a reduced allotment of practice snaps on his way to possibly starting Sunday. If the Broncos can succeed in finally taking care of the ball and establish a run game that has been spotty the last two weeks, they will give themselves a chance. Tagovaila has been good in three starts this season, but he’s also benefited from a lot of short fields. The Broncos must eliminate turnovers, control the clock, convert their red-zone chances and force Tagovailoa to navigate the entire field. The problem is Denver has rarely been able to put that formula together this season, even when there wasn’t uncertainty at the QB position. Dolphins, 24-17.
Tolentino: The Dolphins have a strong opportunity to tie the Bills for first place in the AFC East with a victory. Miami has the best point differential in the division, plus-69, ahead of Buffalo (7), New England (-22) and New York (-147). In comparison, Denver (3-6) has a minus-68. At the beginning of the week, the weather looked to be a possible factor with snow in the mix, but the percentages for any snow have disappeared from the forecast and temperatures are expected to be in the high 40s. All of that should favor the team coming from South Florida. The Dolphins are simply a better football team than the Broncos right now. Dolphins, 31-17.
(Top photo of Tua Tagovailoa scrambling around Chargers linebacker Kyzir White: Jasen Vinlove / USA Today)