Which arbitration-eligible Giants might be non-tendered?

On Wednesday, every team will decide which arbitration-eligible players will be tendered a contract for 2021. It’s technically possible that the Dodgers could make Walker Buehler, Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager free agents, so keep those fingers crossed. Even if that doesn’t happen, though, there will be new free agents for the Giants to poke around at. There will be bargains out there.

But before that happens, let’s look at the Giants’ 10 arbitration-eligible players and see which ones the team is likely to keep. This is the biggest group of arb-eligible players the team has had since 2012, when they also had to make decisions on 10 players, including an expensive and underperforming Hunter Pence and an injured Brian Wilson. Some of their decisions this week will be easy. Some will not.

Let’s start with the easy ones.

Almost certain to be offered arbitration

• Donovan Solano (projected arbitration salary between $2 million and $4 million)

• Austin Slater ($1 million – $2 million)

• Alex Dickerson ($2 million – $3.3 million)

• Reyes Moronta ($800,000)

The projected salary numbers are from MLB Trade Rumors, whose model consistently spits out accurate projections every season. There’s uncertainty this offseason, though, because of the 60-game season, so they’re giving three different projections for each player, depending on which model MLB and the MLBPA settle on. For example, if the arbitrators ignore the pandemic and treat every player as if they missed nearly two-thirds of the season, Solano will get close to $2.2 million. If the arbitrators take a players’ stats and extrapolate them out to a full 162-game season, Solano will get closer to $3.8 million.

It’s gonna get messy.

But these four players are sticking around, regardless. Solano won his first Silver Slugger award in 2020, which is remarkable for a player who needed 1,241 major-league plate appearances to hit his 10th career home run. He’ll turn 33 in two weeks, but he’s hit a remarkable .328/.362/.459 in his Giants career, and if there aren’t any surprises, he’ll play in 140 games or more in 2021.

Dickerson appeared in 52 of the Giants’ 60 games — a great sign for someone whose critical flaw throughout his career has been poor injury luck. His OPS+ as a Giant over the last two seasons is 143, which for perspective is just a shade higher than Jeff Kent’s mark as a Giant. Dickerson was a key part of the team’s offensive resurgence in 2020, and any hopes they’ll have for holding onto those gains in 2021 involve him sticking around.

Slater is still young and cheap, so he’s sticking around, especially considering how well he pairs with Dickerson. He might not ever match his .282/.408/.506 line from 2020, but he’s hit at every level throughout his professional career. He’ll be a big part of the Giants’ plans. The only question about him has to do with the portmanteau we’re going with for the left-field platoon. I’m partial to Slickerson or Slackerson, if only because switching the order of the last names can get you into all sorts of trouble.

Because he missed the entire season, Moronta’s projected salary won’t be affected by the funkiness of a 60-game schedule. The only reason the Giants wouldn’t pay him is if they know that he’s too hurt to contribute. He was at the alternate site in September and a serious candidate for the active roster, though, so that seems unlikely. He’ll be back. And appreciated.

On the bubble, but likely to be offered arbitration

• Jarlin García ($900,000 – $1.3 million)

• Wandy Peralta ($1 million – $1.2 million)

• Darin Ruf ($1.4 million – $1.9 million)

Some of these might surprise you, but remember that the Giants won’t be on the hook for the full contract if they cut any of these players in spring training. From MLB.com:

Players on arbitration contracts who are cut on or before the 16th day of Spring Training are owed 30 days’ termination pay (based on the prorated version of his agreed-upon arbitration salary). A player cut between the 16th day and the end of Spring Training is owed 45 days’ termination pay (based on the prorated version of his agreed-upon arbitration salary). The arbitration salary becomes guaranteed if the player is on the 25-man roster when the season begins.

It’s probably worth the $200,000 or $300,000 risk to get a longer look at these players and have them as options for the 26-man roster out of spring training.

García’s 0.49 ERA in 2020 was almost certainly a small-sample mirage, and his strikeout rate (6.9 K/9) wasn’t very impressive, but he struck out 10 of the 38 batters he faced in September, which suggests that there might be more whiffs to unlock. It just seems unlikely that the Giants will want to ditch him because they’re scared that he’ll make $1 million if he makes the roster. If he makes the roster, either he did something very right in the Cactus League, or the Giants bullpen is desperate for healthy arms. Both scenarios benefit from García’s presence.

Peralta has been teasing teams with his potential for years, and his final eight appearances in 2020 — 11 IP, 9 K, 3 BB, 5 H, 0 R — should give the Giants hope. His strong pitching in September brought his ERA from 5.52 down to 3.29, and he throws a whatchamacallit pitch that’s hard to find or replicate in a left-hander:

Baseball Savant has it as a changeup, even though it went about as fast as the average Tony Watson fastball, but let’s call it a changeup. Whatever it is, it is absolutely nasty, and it’s hard to believe the Giants think they can guarantee a seven-, eight- or nine-man bullpen that’s better/cheaper/more effective without Peralta.

Ruf is the hardest guy to peg. We know the Giants have been scrambling for right-handed power since, oh, Pat Burrell, and Ruf filled the role perfectly in 2020. He was patient (.370 OBP) and enjoyed a power surge as the year went on, and his outfield defense wasn’t as appalling as expected. But he’s still better as a DH, which isn’t likely to be a part of the National League in 2021, and the current depth chart on FanGraphs has a Giants bench without a dedicated backup in center field, which seems unlikely. They’ll probably have someone like a Steven Duggar or Luis Alexander Basabe, who can zip around center, and that would come at the expense of a bat-first bench option.

As of now, Duggar, Basabe and Jason Vosler are the only lefties/switch-hitters with a chance to be on the bench, which means the Giants are likely to sign additional options for that role. You know that Wilmer Flores isn’t going anywhere, and that it’s unlikely that the Giants will find a backup catcher like Stephen Vogt, who doubles as an offensive weapon, which means they would have to be very comfortable with the idea that Ruf can hit against right-handers.

A trade wouldn’t surprise me, but it’s hard to imagine that the Giants would cut Ruf after he did exactly what he wanted him to, just to save a couple hundred thousand dollars. There are a lot of scenarios in which the roster will need someone like him, and not that many in which he’s disposable.

On the bubble, but unlikely to be offered arbitration

• Trevor Gott ($700,000 – $1 million)

• Daniel Robertson ($1.1 million – $1.3 million)

• Tyler Anderson ($2.4 million – $4.3 million)

I could be wrong with all three of these guys, if only because of the part where the contracts wouldn’t be guaranteed until Opening Day, but here’s the argument against them:

When he’s right, Gott has stuff. It’s clear and unmistakable, and I trust his 3.12 FIP from 2019 far more than his 4.44 ERA that season. His body betrayed him last year, though, and he was a part of one of the ugliest bullpen stretches you’ll ever see. Will he be healthy enough to contribute in 2021, and do the Giants want to gamble a couple hundred thousand clams to find out? It’s not a lot of clams by baseball standards, but it’s enough to serve as a tiebreaker.

Robertson is a fine player … for another roster. There’s a lot to like about him, from his keen eye to his positional flexibility, and there’s a non-zero chance that he emerges as one of the more coveted utility players in baseball someday. It might not be the likeliest outcome, but there’s a reason why he was a first-round pick in 2012, and his career .342 OBP in 855 PA is impressive for a low-cost middle infielder.

He’s right-handed, though, on a team that already has Evan Longoria, Flores, Solano and possibly Ruf. With another year of the 28-man roster, this would be an easy call, a bench candidate with more potential than the average reserve, but there’s going to be a roster crunch. He’s also out of options, which might be a bigger mark against him than his right-handedness. Farhan Zaidi loves his players with options.

Anderson is another tough call, if only because he’s one of the only things standing between the Giants and 32 emergency starts from Conner Menez. He has remarkably similar projections to Jon Lester, to whom the Giants have already been linked, and if Anderson doesn’t fit with the roster at the end of March, there would almost certainly be a team interested in trading for him.

But Anderson was merely solid in 2020. Functional. Competent. Unharmful. Even though that’s a worthwhile kind of pitcher to keep around — and you sure as heck notice when a team doesn’t have them — the Giants probably feel like they can find that profile with pitchers who won’t require a seven-figure guarantee.

If there’s one thing we know about the Giants’ front-office executives, it’s that they’re not scared of shuffling players around and making transactions by the bushel. The arbitration deadline will give them a chance to scoop up more players, but first they’ll have to figure which ones they’re keeping. My personal preference would be for 30-man rosters, with all of these players sticking around, but Rob Manfred refuses to answer my calls, texts, letters, emails and carrier pigeons.

With a 26-man roster, everything gets much, much trickier. The Giants will pay a little bit extra to keep some of these players around for spring training, even if they’re not quite in the team’s finalized plans. They probably won’t keep all of them, though. Expect a cut or two.

(Photo of Darin Ruf: Jeff Chiu / Associated Press)