The Cowboys won a game on Sunday by scoring 30 points with almost no impressive offensive statistics. They were 100 yards below average in total output, eight first downs below average and the time of possession was about as low as it has been all season.
Funny what a little defensive help and some good field position can do for an offense. They went about their business, scored on five of seven actual drives and won without breaking a sweat.
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It was an easy day at the office with very little to break down at great length.
So, as opposed to spending much time over-examining a fairly meaningless game, I want to offer you the data and then write about another big offensive topic of the day: What has this year’s offensive line done for the future?
First, a thought on our continuing “What would you say you do here?” discussion as it relates to the evolution of Ezekiel Elliott.
Remember when we thought he was the best runner in the league? Then we kept modifying it because the tackles stopped being broken and the big yards stopped happening very often.
The bar has shifted to how he is one of the best short-yardage backs in the league and a sure thing in the red zone. That has never really been analytically true, but anecdotally, how many times has a broadcaster who seldom watches the Cowboys wonders aloud why the team is trying to throw the ball from the 1-yard line rather than “FEED ZEKE”?
Well, the proof is in the 23 carries from inside the 5-yard line this season (Thanks ProFootballReference.com):
As you can see, he has now carried the ball 23 times for 14 yards and four touchdowns. This is certainly not on Elliott alone — the offensive line is a shell of itself and the QB gives no pause at all to the defense — but if you are averaging well south of a yard a carry, you are not a reasonable option for critical goal-to-goal downs. The blue line above demonstrates where Zeke has been since Dak Prescott has exited, because there is no question that the zone-read play was the best run the Cowboys have had for years. It works because Dak decides where the defense is showing its teeth; if it is Zeke, Dak keeps it, or vice versa. Now that this option is gone, it’s nine carries for 3 yards and no touchdowns.
So, yes, Mr. Announcer, if you are wondering why you don’t just “give it to Zeke four times” from 1st-and-goal at the two-yard line, look at the evidence mounting against the case of “He sure is still a great short-yardage back.”
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Yikes.
Now, I don’t tell you this to suggest they are actually going to move on from Elliott. They are pot-committed, and it will most likely be two more seasons of Zeke before they walk away. But let’s never ask again if having a great RB made Prescott. I would argue the evidence is becoming more tilted in the other direction.
Let’s roll through some quick data from the Bengals win and get to our essay topic.
WEEKLY DATA BOX – Week 14 – CINCINNATI
As I said, the team looked just fine, but the stats will call this a pretty tepid performance —one that was aided by the defense and takeaways. It is nice to have an easy week once in a while, and Sunday provided that.
PERSONNEL GROUPINGS
If you read the preseason primer piece, you are ready for this data. If not, maybe you should.
ANDY DALTON NEXT-GEN THROW CHART
I am happy for Dalton, who played well in his return to Cincinnati. Again, the numbers were not magical, but he was really good in those rare occasions when he opened it up, including and primarily the 15-play, 88-yard touchdown drive in the second quarter that featured many big-time third-down conversions. I think he has proven in the Minnesota and Cincinnati games that he is worthy of a better gig in 2021.
NextGen Week 14 Cowboys Receivers
Dalton Schultz had a fine day while Amari Cooper keeps carrying on. Cooper averaged 81 yards per game in 2018 when he was traded here, then 74 yards per game in 2019 with a full season. This year, with four different QBs, he has averaged 72 yards per game. Given the production drops for everyone else, it is a testament to his quality that he will get to 1,000 yards and stay at roughly the same numbers despite the chaos.
OFFENSIVE LINE REVIEW
This is the portion of the study where I get to elaborate on the offensive line’s work, but I will just quickly show you the Bengals’ attempts to get to Dalton here and handle the general evaluation further down.
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When you are ahead, you set the tone. When you set the tone, they cannot blitz as much because you might not be passing, and you don’t want to get caught with your pants down. The Bengals probably had a more aggressive gameplan against the young Cowboys, but as you can tell, falling behind 17-0 puts all that in the trash.
The Cowboys have a reputation over the last seven or eight seasons for “elite” offensive line play. It started materializing mostly in 2014-16 and, for the most part, Dallas has really been strong for years.
Of course, we could argue 2017 was a real mess (Chaz Green game, etc.) while 2018 was a real issue with 56 sacks allowed and a 9.6 sack percentage which is beyond bad. 2019 was better, while 2020 has shown us no health at all.
What that means is that the Cowboys have been able to look at all sorts of offensive line combinations. Fifteen, in fact, if you are willing to consider Travis Frederick was at Mike McCarthy’s introductory press conference as a veteran center to build this new foundation upon.
What have we learned from them? Let’s go left to right and see what we can learn about what lies ahead.
LEFT TACKLE:
Tyron Smith played only 154 snaps at LT for the Cowboys this season, which means he will not be the “majority snaps” holder at this position in 2020 for the first time since 2011, when Doug Free held the honor. He turns 30 and, yes, I know, you and everyone are concerned about how much he has left in the tank. He does have three more seasons on the books for about $15 million per year, so provided he wants $45 million more in cash, he will keep playing and we trust his body will hold up. This, obviously, can be a dicey proposition because he missed a month every season now (and more in 2020), but I still am here to attest that 13 games of Smith is better than 16 games of almost everyone else.
Brandon Knight has played the most snaps this year, and with only three sacks allowed in 563 snaps, we would probably have to call that a massive plus. He is pretty limited in run-blocking and certainly has games like Sunday when it looks like he is holding on for dear life, but he is very young, and I would say has all but locked up the swing tackle spot at a nice price. Cam Erving played 282 snaps from Week 7-12. While he was useful, he was also hurt for two long stretches of the season. Knight is on the books for $850,000 in 2021 while Erving will be an unrestricted free agent after making $2.5 million this season. I think giving Knight the job is a pretty easy call.
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2021 starter: Tyron Smith.
Depth: Brandon Knight
LEFT GUARD:
Connor Williams was on my “put up or shut up” list back in July. Here is part of what I wrote there:
“The general issues have been in run blocking more than pass blocking, but make no mistake, he can be isolated and attacked by some of the physical freaks who play defensive tackle in the NFL. As a rookie, it seemed he lacked the physical strength that sets the tone for every snap, but an offseason of getting bigger and stronger did not seem to help in a large enough way to erase his general issues. However, it must be noted that he is only 23 years old and only in his third season, so while this is a “prove it” year, he does have an outside chance at more time than the others.”
I would like to say that he mostly “put up” and has played every snap this season, which already puts him at his career high by a good margin after not staying healthy in his first two seasons. He is far from a perfect player but has put up the best grades of his career in 2020, and while I still have great concerns about him facing the top DTs, I cannot express the degree of difficulty jump from playing in between Smith and Frederick to what he has endured this season. Williams has been the veteran for several games, and he’s survived it. You have to squint to find real success stories in 2020, but Williams has to be well up the list. He is signed for 2021 at $1.7 million, after which the team and the player will have to see if they can find a deal. At this rate, the price will really jump up in 2022.
2021 starter: Connor Williams.
Depth: Connor McGovern
CENTER:
Joe Looney is a real pleasure to follow. While he has limitations, he’s also the type of backup you hope you find: dependable enough that you don’t mind playing him but perhaps limited enough that you can keep signing him to low-year, low-money deals and have him around. He just turned 30 and played 553 snaps so far while starting nine games (but was hurt on the first play against Cleveland and missed over a month). Again, he is fine, but not a solution. He is also a UFA-to-be.
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Tyler Biadasz was thrust into duty in Week 3 when Looney moved to RG in Seattle. From there he played through Week 8 at center until hurting his hamstring before the Steelers game in warmups and was good — probably slightly better than that for a rookie who was injured in his final year of college. I think he showed me enough to be a cheap starter for several years here, and it was a top move by the front office to go get him in the draft after he slid a bit. He has a ways to go, but he’s on a fixed price tag through 2023 and the resources invested elsewhere on the line means the Cowboys really hope he grows into the role.
2021 starter: Tyler Biadasz .
Depth: Hopefully, Joe Looney at a discount
RIGHT GUARD:
For the first time in his career, Zack Martin could not stay healthy. He has played 1,000 or more snaps every year from 2014-2019 and did so as arguably the best RG in the NFL. He opened 2020 with a rough first week against that cyborg Aaron Donald but was great afterward. He then demonstrated he could pop out to right tackle and handle that with ease in Minnesota, only to get rolled up on during the first drive in Washington and get knocked out for quite possibly the year. Martin is locked in through 2024 at about $16 million per year.
Second-year man Connor McGovern had a rough debut in Weeks 6 and 7, but I must tell you, I have been quite pleased with his improvement in the last month. It’s gone a long way toward quieting the doubts about his first season and start to his sophomore year. I would have no issue with Dallas having the two Connors battle for LG in camp and have the other be the third in what looks like a really fortified spot inside. McGovern is on a cheap rookie deal until 2022.
2021 starter: Zack Martin.
Depth: Connor McGovern
RIGHT TACKLE:
This spot has been the weakest of the five this season, and it took a while for the coaches to find a solution. Terence Steele was just hoping to make the NFL out of Texas Tech as a rookie this year; instead, he has started nearly every game since La’el Collins has not taken a single snap in 2020 thanks to a mysterious hip injury in August and September. Steele had no business starting, but the injuries to Smith, Collins, Knight and Erving all for September forced him into the lineup well before he was ready. In particular, Atlanta, Cleveland, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh were all very poor games for Steele, but to his credit, he kept his head down and kept grinding to improve. He was benched for the Minnesota game but thrust back into duty against Washington and has not allowed a sack since Week 8. His pressures per game have gone from one every 17.5 snaps before he was benched to one every 36 since.
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Collins is signed through 2024 at about $12 million per and should be fine to take back his position next year. Steele is on rookie minimums through 2022.
2021 starter: La’el Collins.
Depth: Brandon Knight and Terence Steele will compete to be the third and fourth tackles and should offer solid depth.
The changes up front have finally slowed down, as Dallas has kept the same group of five since the first drive against Washington on Thanksgiving. The trip to Baltimore was a bad night for the team, but the offensive line held up pretty well overall. In other words, these kids seem to be developing a bit. Not a ton, but they’re not all discards. I am somewhat encouraged.
I know left tackle is a favorite target for a top pick to go find the “next Tyron,” but I would argue that this is not a judicious use of resources based on where the Cowboys are. They are not asking 36-year-olds to hold on. They have a few 30-year old veterans, but this year they’ve fortified with a group of 23-year olds who are competent or at least have a chance.
In other words, 2020 has allowed us to look at Knight, Steele, Williams, Biadasz and McGovern and see that all are worth continuing to develop under Joe Philbin. The Cowboys have invested in a pretty nice crop, and I don’t feel compelled to add to this group. I would seek to keep Looney if the price is right, but they have their 2021 squad at offensive line already signed and in-house. That should make many feel good about this particular spot.
(Photo of Connor Williams: Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)