Thoughts on Paul Guenther, Rod Marinelli and Johnathan Abram — Raiders mailbag

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - NOVEMBER 15:  Strong safety Johnathan Abram #24 of the Las Vegas Raiders talks with head coach Jon Gruden before their game against the Denver Broncos at Allegiant Stadium on November 15, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Raiders defeated the Broncos 37-12.  (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
By Vic Tafur
Dec 17, 2020

Thursday night is the debut of new Raiders interim defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli, and you have questions, starting with his inferences Tuesday that he is not going to change much of the old system and scheme.

I don’t know what he could really do in four days, anyway, plus he will be in survival mode with starters Clelin Ferrell, Nicholas Morrow, Johnathan Abram and Damon Arnette out with injuries.

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We’ll probably see defensive end Carl Nassib again after he was banished to the inactive list the past two games. Dallin Leavitt seems to be next man up at safety, but I don’t know how much faith the Raiders have in him despite being on the roster for two years. Recently re-signed Daryl Worley could jump over him on the depth chart and have a big role at cornerback and safety. 

Somebody is going to have to cover the ChargersAustin Ekeler out of the backfield. Linebacker Cory Littleton has played himself into a part-time role as a nickel linebacker, and I am curious if that changes under Marinelli. There was a lot of buzz when the Raiders signed Littleton last offseason, but he has been largely invisible. Is that Paul Guenther’s fault, Littleton’s or maybe the front office being all-in on cornerback Byron Jones in free agency and then making a quick pivot when Jones signed with the Dolphins and not worrying enough if Littleton was a good scheme fit? It seems the Rams realized Littleton wasn’t a three-down linebacker when they let him walk. 

I think I just answered one of the questions in the mail. 

How much was it on Guenther to get his free-agent players to be positive contributors? On offense you have Nelson Agholor, Richie Incognito, Trent Brown and even Jason Witten as positive contributors. On defense? Our FAs seem worse as Raiders. Cory Littleton, Maliek Collins, Lamarcus Joyner, Carl Nassib. Only Nick Kwiatkoski seems in the plus category. — Ed G. 

The offense has been pretty set with Jon Gruden and Derek Carr helping new players fit into their roles. The defense has been a mess for almost 20 years and sometimes it just swallows players and coaches up. Kwiatkoski has stood out by just merely being somewhat solid, while the other guys’ play has not matched their pay. 

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One thing I wonder is how much say Guenther had in personnel acquisitions. It’s not as much as you think. While fans and media types were doing cartwheels over the team finally signing good linebackers, I remember Guenther being pretty subdued about the whole thing. 

Then, Guenther was handcuffed in games all the times that Arnette went out with injuries or concussions. He felt he could do a lot more with the play calls with Arnette on the field, a sign of how much he loved this first-round pick. 

I think Guenther got frustrated with the other players losing their one-on-one matchups, plus all the bad angles and tackle attempts — maybe that’s the reason Gruden said he needed a new voice on defense.  

Based on your discussions with the team, was the feeling the defensive issues were more player-related (i.e., talent or ability to play the scheme), scheme (i.e., too complex and not flexible) or inability of the coaching staff to effectively get the players in the right spots? — Jeff M. 

A lot has been said about how it takes a while to get comfortable in Guenther’s system, but on the other hand, I remember Benson Mayowa, Dion Jordan and Will Compton coming in and making plays last season. I am questioning how many playmakers the Raiders actually have on defense. When Guenther did try to blitz more this season, only Morrow was able to get to the quarterback. 

Littleton has to be a bad fit, and that (along with Nassib) are Marinelli’s two biggest projects. The Raiders paid them too much to take the salary-cap hit and get rid of them next season. 

Vic, at one point you and the other guys on the podcast agreed that the Raiders had a top offense in the league. One that could score on anybody in the league. They seem to be struggling now, what’s happening? — Stephen F. 

Turnovers and teams are stacking the box against the run. 

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Do you think Wade Phillips can help this defense? — Noel R.

I saw the report that he might be interested in the Raiders job … as I am sure every unemployed defensive coordinator is. Hasn’t the Rams defense gotten better after he left? I don’t get the impression he is on Gruden’s radar. 

Outside of Raheem Morris and Marinelli, who are some guys you think could be the defensive coordinator next year? Are there any positional coaches you think should get consideration (e.g. Aaron Glenn on the Saints)? — Robert C. 

Chargers coordinator Gus Bradley might need a job and he has Gruden ties, but I could see Gruden just going with Marinelli. Marinelli is in a can’t-lose spot — either the defense improves or Gruden says he had an impossible job coming in on a short week with so many players injured. 

Half of the fan base has given up on the playoffs, but Gruden clearly has not. After Sunday it was obvious that keeping the defense status quo the rest of the way was not going to yield the desired result. People have been pleading with Gruden to fire Guenther for a while. Give him credit for making the move in a bid to save the season. I think this move makes the magic happen — 3-0 the rest of the way and a playoff berth. What’s your prediction for the final three games? — Jeremy P. 

I will be surprised if the Raiders win Thursday night or against the Dolphins in Lynn Bowden Jr.’s revenge game. I have them finishing 8-8 right now. 

Have you put in a request for comment from Mark Davis? At what point does Gruden’s seat start to heat up? He’s the one with final personnel say.  —Troy H. 

I have talked to Mr. Las Vegas a lot this season. He still loves Gruden and thinks the Raiders are on the right track, as disappointed as he is in the recent results. 

With the salary cap much lower next season, are the Raiders in position to get under the cap while still adding quality free agents? — Shae V. 

It may not be as low as was first anticipated, plus the Raiders have Tyrell Williams, Marcus Mariota and Lamarcus Joyner coming off the books. That’s $28 million right there. 

Is Abram in danger of becoming another bust in the secondary for the Raiders or is there still hope for him? — Tim O. 

It’s too early for that kind of talk. He only played in one game last year before he got hurt, so he really is a rookie on the field. The inexperience and desire lead him to play hero ball where he wants to make the play so badly he forgets about his responsibilities in the scheme sometimes. 

Is it really fair for the coaches and players to refer to our team as being young as an excuse or as a reason to be excited about the future? I don’t actually think the team is that young compared to a lot of teams in the league. (Oh, also and on a different note, we should’ve kept Khalil Mack, used our two first-round picks on Josh Jacobs and another player, and not have signed Joyner, Littleton and Collins.) — Paul L. 

I’ll allow it. Maxx Crosby, Ferrell, Abram and Trayvon Mullen are all second-year players and Arnette is a rookie. That’s the heart of the defense right now, good or bad. 

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All season Gruden has talked about “cleaning things up” on defense. Why don’t they get cleaned up then? I get the sense that Gruden doesn’t really know what exactly is wrong with the defense. Or does he know, but he’s not disclosing it? — Justin H. 

Right now, he has to operate under the premise that he has good defensive players that Guenther couldn’t get to click. That premise could very well change when the season is over. 

Any clue why Littleton looks so lost with the Raiders? Is it the style of defense the Raiders run? There were some comments made about Guenther’s defense being complicated. — Tim O. 

Sorry, I jumped the gun. 

I know your access to practice is limited this year. But with the last two seasons being so similar with good starts and playoff talk, do you get a sense that this team simply buys into their hype a little too much? Especially with so many young players. Even after the Chiefs loss, they were mostly praised for playing very well, but just like last year when things were trending up, they’ve been really flat down the stretch. I can’t help but think many players just assumed the stretch run would be easier based on their opponents’ records alone. — Aaron W. 

You have a lot of young players trying to take on leadership roles on defense, and it looks like the burden is too heavy. They need a veteran player who makes plays on the field and keeps his teammates focused. I don’t know if it’s a sign of overconfidence rather than just not being mentally strong enough. 

What is it specifically that’s not working for the defense? As a fan we see guys running wide open in the secondary and huge holes for running backs, but what X’s and O’s-wise is messing up? — Ron R. 

To me, it’s all angles, even by the defensive linemen taking on blocks last week on those big runs. Marinelli said he is planning to stick with Guenther’s defense, but you have to assume there will be some changes. 

If Derek Carr fires his agent and hires you, do you tell him that the Raiders have great offensive weapons and the defense will finally come around, so he should ride it out? Or do you tell him that if his goal is really to play in the postseason, he’s never going to get there with the Raiders due to their perpetual defensive incompetence, so he should demand a trade to a team that has all the necessary pieces except a good starting QB? — Andrew T. 

He said he wants to play for the Raiders his whole career and I believe him. He is not firing his agent, who is set to find out soon enough if Gruden and the Raiders are ready to talk about a contract extension for Carr.

(Photo: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)

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Vic Tafur

Vic Tafur is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the Las Vegas Raiders and the NFL. He previously worked for 12 years at the San Francisco Chronicle and also writes about boxing and mixed martial arts. Follow Vic on Twitter @VicTafur