I’m as eager as everyone else to say goodbye to 2020, but let’s take one last dive into the Twins mailbag before mercifully flipping the calendar to 2021.
Before getting to your questions, I just wanted to say thank you for making my first season on the Twins beat such an enjoyable one despite … well, everything.
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I loved covering the Twins for such a baseball-savvy audience, even if it was for just 62 games, and I had such a great experience interacting with The Athletic’s readers in the article comments and on Twitter.
I can’t wait to do it again, hopefully for a lot more games and under a lot better circumstances. Thanks for getting me through 2020. See you on the other side.
Are the Twins really shopping Luis Arraez?
— Justin L.
Naturally, after baseball’s most tapped-in reporter, Ken Rosenthal, writes about the possibility, this mailbag’s most-asked question is some version of the Arraez query above. Rosenthal speculated that the Twins could sign or trade for a new shortstop, move Jorge Polanco to second base, and trade Arraez. Less noticed is that he also wrote “the likelihood of all that occurring is not terribly high.”
Three weeks ago, Dan Hayes and I wrote about the Twins’ involvement in the free-agent shortstop market, with the idea being that they could sign someone like Marcus Semien and move Polanco to a super-utility role as he comes back from a bad season and another ankle surgery. Rosenthal confirmed their pursuit of free-agent shortstops, and also added in some other juicy trade possibilities.
No one should be truly off-limits, but I’d be surprised if the Twins were willing to trade Arraez without being blown away by an offer. He’s hit .331 with more walks (44) than strikeouts (40) through 124 games as a major-leaguer, won’t be 24 until April, and is under team control through 2025. I ranked Arraez as the sixth-most valuable player in the Twins organization long term.
I do sense that the Twins are more open to big splashes than most fans assume, both in terms of making runs at higher-end free agents and making prominent players available in trade talks. They certainly aren’t standing pat after another disappointing playoff result, but they also don’t want to make sweeping changes solely for the sake of change and ruin a good thing.
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Is there any chance Miguel Sanó can be the backup third baseman? If they sign a starting shortstop, Polanco could be the backup middle infielder, but I’m skeptical of him at third base.
— Chris B.
Sanó playing some third base again hasn’t been ruled out, but the Twins passed on using him there with Josh Donaldson out last season. They believe focusing on first base is best for Sanó, and he definitely looked better there last year than many people expected. As for Polanco, while his arm strength is far from ideal at third base, I think that concern is overblown.
Arm strength represents a bigger slice of the evaluation pie at third base than at shortstop, where range, sure-handedness, and turning double plays are also key. However, playing shortstop requires a stronger, more accurate arm than playing third base. Shortstops make more throws and longer throws, all with less time. Polanco has enough arm for third base and started nine games there in 2016.
What’s the holdup with Nelson Cruz?
— Steve B.
I wrote a full article about this already, so I’ll give the short version now. Cruz is likely waiting for MLB to officially announce whether or not the National League will keep the DH, because if he’s limited only to American League teams, it’s hard to find a great lineup or payroll fit among contenders. And the Twins can do that same math, realizing their AL-only competition for Cruz probably won’t drive up his price.
Who is the Twins’ best prospect that could actually have a chance to make an impact in the major leagues this year?
— Joshua A.
Alex Kirilloff is the Twins’ best prospect and has a chance to be their Opening Day left fielder. Beyond that, fellow prospects Ryan Jeffers, Brent Rooker, and Jorge Alcalá already reached the majors, and Jhoan Duran and Trevor Larnach aren’t far behind. The next wave of Twins talent is starting to reach shore, with Royce Lewis also not far off despite the lack of a 2020 minor-league season.
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Do you see a changing of the guard in the AL Central, or will it be a battle for first place again among Cleveland, Minnesota and Chicago?
— Jacob L.
Cleveland has far too much high-end pitching not to be in the playoff mix, but their ownership has hurt the team by refusing to spend money to surround stars with quality depth. That’s led to Cleveland trading numerous stars in order to cut payroll, likely costing them at least one division title won by the Twins, and now they’re expected to trade Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco.
Cleveland has shrunk their own winning window, which must be maddening to their fans, and if Lindor exits, the AL Central would become a two-team race.
It’s great to have the Triple-A team in St. Paul, but what do the Saints get out of the deal? They’re sold out most nights already.
— Emmett O.
I also wondered about this initially, considering the Saints already packed CHS Field beyond capacity. Talking to Saints officials, one key I hadn’t considered is the increased number of games. As an independent team, they had 50 dates to sell out. As a Triple-A team, they’ll have 72. Toss in the increased sponsorship opportunities and they could add more than $5 million in annual revenue.
Given the Twins’ history of being unable to develop starting pitching, how confident are you that this next crop of pitching prospects will be different?
— Alan G.
It’s important to note that this Twins regime has only been in place since 2017 and was hired largely because the previous regime had become ill-equipped to develop pitching. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine weren’t part of any “history” prior to that, and the team they took over had the league’s worst pitching staff for a half-decade. This is a lengthy process started just four years ago.
We’ve seen some early results in Kenta Maeda’s breakout after they targeted him last winter. Maeda finished runner-up for the Cy Young and the Twins’ rotation as a whole had the league’s second-best ERA, behind only Cleveland. And the more systemic changes in player development should begin to pay off soon as the prospects acquired by this regime actually reach the majors.
Is there a possibility of re-signing Jake Odorizzi?
— David D.
Definitely. Re-signing Cruz is the top priority, but the Twins remain interested in bringing back Odorizzi as well. However, now that draft-pick compensation is no longer weighing down his market — which led to the Twins keeping him last offseason via the qualifying offer — Odorizzi has lots of suitors even after an injury-wrecked season.
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I ranked him as the seventh-best free-agent starting pitcher, and three of the six listed ahead of him are now off the market.
Have you heard if the Twins are seriously considering Brad Hand?
— Shea M.
Hand is a three-time All-Star reliever recently cut loose by an AL Central rival and he’s from Minnesota, so he’s understandably a popular topic among Twins fans. They’re certainly in the market for bullpen help, but the Twins (and every other team) passed on the chance to claim the left-hander and his $10 million salary off waivers for nothing before Cleveland released him in October.
That was before the Twins decided to keep lefties Taylor Rogers for $6 million and Caleb Thielbar for $650,000. It’s possible they could sign Hand and enter the season with three lefties in the bullpen, but the price tag would likely have to be much lower than $10 million. Right-handed relief is a much bigger need minus Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Clippard and Matt Wisler.
What internal options do the Twins have to recoup the bullpen losses?
— Matt B.
Alcalá will step into a higher-leverage role after his great rookie showing. To a lesser extent, the Twins also think Cody Stashak is capable of an expanded role after posting a 3.15 ERA and 42-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40 innings so far. Tyler Duffey is more than ready to be a late-inning staple after working all kinds of roles last year. Edwar Colina is a big arm nearing the majors for good.
They also have confidence in their ability to find quality relievers on the scrap heap. Wisler was claimed off waivers to zero fanfare last fall, so don’t discount the viability of waiver claims (Ian Gibaut, Brandon Waddell) or minor-league signings (Derek Law, Glenn Sparkman, Juan Minaya, Luke Farrell) this time around. Re-signing Clippard and/or Romo is also still doable.
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I also expect the Twins to sign at least one veteran free-agent reliever of some note — I’ve written about their high-end options, non-tendered options, and bargain-bin options — but their approach to bullpen building is not based on spending big and that’s generally a positive thing. They’ve earned some trust when it comes to finding/creating undervalued relievers.
What do you think Colina’s role will be in 2021?
— Paul J.
Colina will almost surely begin the year in the minors, but he’s well-positioned to be part of the Twins’ bullpen plans at some point in 2021, not unlike Alcalá last season or Brusdar Graterol in 2019. He’s new to relief work, but Colina has a high-90s fastball and an elite slider, so a path to bullpen success is pretty clear assuming the Twins are done trying to develop him as a starter.
What are your thoughts on banning the shift?
— Andrew H.
Banning teams from positioning their fielders where opposing batters are most likely to hit the ball is absurd to me. It’s also nothing new. Star hitters like Ted Williams faced extreme shifts throughout history. What’s changed is the ability to more accurately predict where balls are most likely to be hit. But every team has the same amount of space to cover with the same number of fielders.
NFL teams constantly align defenses based on the opponent, bringing in extra defensive backs against great quarterbacks or stacking the box vs. great running backs. NBA teams go big or small based on the opponent, and can double-team great scorers. If anything, baseball should be encouraging teams to try new and weird defensive alignments that force hitters to react and adjust.
With vaccines just starting to roll out, will free-agent activity skew even later than usual as teams wait to figure out how soon they’ll be able to safely have fans in the stands?
— Trevor E.
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Without question. We’ve already seen that happen with the lack of November and December moves, even relative to recent “slow” offseasons, and uncertainty surrounding the 2021 season’s start date, schedule length and ticket sales loom over everything. We’re obviously all hoping 2021 is much closer to normal than 2020 was, but MLB teams are rightfully remaining skeptical.
Any chance the Pohlads let the Twins go all-out this offseason and bring in someone like Trevor Bauer? I know COVID-19 affected revenues and teams are hesitant to spend. However, wouldn’t this be the perfect time to jump on a suppressed free-agent market?
— Nathaniel K.
In theory, yes.
Each dollar has more spending power this offseason and, as a clear contending team with a current payroll under $90 million, the Twins could take particular advantage. And they probably will, at least relative to the collective spending of the other 29 teams. I expect their 2021 payroll to be closer to their 2020 payroll than the average team. But that still probably means a lower payroll.
If the Twins ignored what happened in 2020 and moved forward as if revenues had remained stable, their 2021 payroll would likely approach $150 million. Of course, ignoring what happened in 2020 is easier said than done for all of us. In the Twins’ case, they weren’t exempt from the 2020 revenue losses that occurred, nor are they more certain than other teams to avoid diminished 2021 revenues.
This is absolutely a depressed free-agent market, and any team willing to throw around some money should get incredible value, but the factors that led to the depressed market apply to the Twins just as much as to other teams. It sounds like they’re planning for a payroll around $125 million, down from about $140 million in 2020, and my guess is that would rank among the top half of MLB.
Can you just tell us the Twins will eventually win one playoff game? Even if you don’t mean it, it will be nice to see it in writing.
— Kyle M.
You heard it here first: Between now and the end of time, the Minnesota Twins will win another playoff game. Maybe even two.
Why do they want to hurt me year after year? Why do I keep letting them?
— Ian T.
It’s just part of the sports experience, sadly. Some fans are born into situations where winning is expected and regularly delivered. I’m sure that’s very fun and never gets old, although it’s purely an untested hypothesis for any Minnesotan.
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I always encourage Twins fans to enjoy the journey as much as possible, rather than relying solely on the result to provide joy. To watch the Twins go 137-85 the past two years for the majors’ second-best record, and not be able to enjoy it unless it was followed by playoff success, is taking away such a huge part of fandom and leaving so little room for anything but pain.
And of course there’s always the hope that when it does finally pay off with a championship, the euphoria will be made even stronger by all the waiting and suffering. I just hope Twins fans get another chance to find out if that’s true.
What big moves have your World Series-champion fake Minnesota Twins made this offseason?
— Zack P.
This question comes from our editor, Zack Pierce, so I’m taking it as the go-ahead to resume my simulated Twins season as soon as the new version of OOTP is released this spring. Coming off a World Series victory, with big contributions from midseason trade pickups, you can bet I’ll remain aggressive. Might as well go all-in. Hayes and Falvey are going to rip me either way.
Are we going to get a 2021 version of the OOTP season from you? It was a pretty enjoyable read.
— Joel N.
Well, now there is no stopping me. Not one, but two questions? Completely over-the-top praise like “a pretty enjoyable read”? You’ve created a (simulated) monster. Stay tuned.
What’s the Gleeman family holiday meal situation?
— Colin M.
My girlfriend works from home now and she’s on corporate Zoom calls all day, every day. Last week, I overheard her tell someone: “My boyfriend is Jewish, so we’ll be getting Chinese food.”
I’m assuming she was asked about our Christmas plans, but I prefer to imagine someone just asked what she was doing for dinner on a random weeknight.
(Either way, the answer is Chinese food.)
(Top photo: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)
