Readers: How realistic are the Blues' chances of landing John Tavares?

Happy Saturday, Athletic friends!

Let’s recap this week’s stories @TheAthleticSTL …

• Going back to last weekend, we had the story of Mary Walkenhorst, who at age 95 attended her first Blues game recently and met her favorite player, Brett Hull. Click here.
• After a long wait, Blues captain Alex Pietrangelo finally made his first appearance at the NHL All-Star Game and we were in Tampa to watch it all unfold. Click here.
• The NHL draft is just six months away, so this week The Athletic’s prospect guru Corey Pronman released his 2017-18 midseason draft rankings. Click here.
• One of those players is Brady Tkachuk, and @TheAthleticSTL contributor Julie Robenhymer has the story of St. Louis’ latest NHL-bound prospect. Click here.
• With the All-Star Game in the rear-view mirror, we broke down the five things the Blues must do down the stretch. Click here.
• The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun checked in with a couple of Central Division GMs and says that. with several teams pursuing the same group of players, the price will go up heading into the NHL trade deadline. Click here.
• Jake Allen returned to the Blues’ net Thursday in Boston and we told you why the club decided to play the struggling starter against the high-power Bruins. Click here.
• NHL clubs are keeping an eye on John Tavares’ contract situation with the New York Islanders, and The Athletic’s Craig Custance says the Blues might be a team positioning itself to make a run at the All-Star center. Click here.
• There was a controversial goaltender interference play Thursday in Boston and afterward Blues general manager Doug Armstrong told The Athletic that he has no idea what the rule is anymore. Click here.
• And finally, @TheAthleticSTL contributor Evan Sporer, in his latest edition of the Blues’ Line, asked ‘Where does Jay Bouwmeester fit the best in the team’s lineup?’ Click here.

Let’s get to this week’s mailbag …

No. 1

JR,

JR: I like the 800-pound gorilla reference … it makes me feel skinny, so thanks for that. Yes, why don’t we get right into John Tavares, who’s been in the headlines a lot this week. He would be a perfect fit for the Blues, but let’s not forget he’s a perfect fit for every team in the league, including his current one. The 27-year-old is in the final year of his contract with the Islanders, and many teams are watching to see what happens. There was some thought that if the Isles fell out of the playoff picture and didn’t think they could re-sign Tavares, they might move him before the Feb. 26 deadline. But GM Garth Snow told The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun this week that he won’t be dealt even if there isn’t an extension in place before the deadline. So it appears that you can rule out Tavares with the Blues or anyone else this season — unless Snow changes his mind. But if Tavares makes it to free agency, I’ve heard that Armstrong will show a lot of interest. Capfriendly.com projects the club to have about $13 million in cap space next season, and Tavares will command $10-12 million, which doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room in an offseason when the Blues must also re-sign Joel Edmundson. But there’s the possibility of the cap increasing and obviously the Blues could make some trades to free up more space. If he’s remotely available, Armstrong will be involved. Do they have a realistic chance if it gets that far? I think so. Tavares and Alex Pietrangelo are friends, so he can get the lay of the land. He knows they’ve got some good talent on the roster, including a right winger in Vladimir Tarasenko who could explode for 50 if he had an elite No. 1 center. So I think there’s a chance, even if it is a slim one.

No. 2

JR,

With the Islanders saying they’re not dealing Tavares, does this impact what the Blues do in regards to a trade now, or do they still hold out for free agency? 

-CJ

JR: This is where the Blues’ situation gets interesting. They’re obviously in the playoff picture this season and most would agree that they could use a forward and preferably a goal-scorer. But do they make a deal for Ottawa’s Mike Hoffman or Montreal’s Max Pacioretty if it prevents them in any way from making a run at Tavares? The answer is obviously no. But the odds on getting Tavares are long, so do the Blues pass up a chance to better themselves at this year’s deadline for something that might not even materialize next offseason? I personally don’t think Hoffman or Pacioretty put the Blues over the top this year, so if it’s me, I’m not jeopardizing any potential plans next summer by adding a $5 million player at this year’s trade deadline. I’ve heard that Ottawa offered Hoffman for Robby Fabbri (and other undisclosed pieces) and the Blues said no, so that signals they may be thinking along the same lines. I do believe they’ll upgrade at forward this year if the deal is right, but their potential next season and beyond looks really good, so if I’m a Blues fan, I’m OK with Armstrong being conservative this year and focusing on free agency or a summer hockey trade.

No. 3

Hey JR,

I’ll start by saying it’s only minutes after the loss to Boston so I haven’t quite calmed down from that game yet. But my question is, do the Blues know they can’t give away points like they did against Boston? Jake Allen comes out and plays fantastic to keep them in the game all night and yet they still play ho-hum. It was like they were more concerned about how Jake was going to play rather than showing up to play themselves. I understand Boston is a good team, but that’s the thing, ‘good’ teams impose their will on other teams. Where was the desperation? Where was the tenacity at? 

-Gary

JR: I hear you, Gary, and I understand what you’re saying about the Blues kind of feeling out the game with Allen in net. The Bruins are very good — they were 14-1-4 in their last 19 games before Thursday — so there’s a reason why the Blues had a tough time. But they clearly weren’t playing on their toes, so they really weren’t giving themselves a chance. Was it because they were worried about Allen? Could have been. I was a proponent of starting Carter Hutton in Boston and Allen in Buffalo, but I could understand the logic of going with Allen — it was a big game and you’d like to think they’d rally behind him. Instead, the Blues were tentative and sloppy. That’s why I don’t like this team’s chances this year as much as some do. Not only are there holes in the lineup, but there are concerns about who’s going to show up when it matters. Does Pacioretty wearing a Blue Note Thursday night in Boston change that concern? No. All the elements were there that required a strong performance — a difficult opponent and Allen needing their support — and that’s what you got?!?! Disturbing.

No. 4

JR,

Given Evan Sporer’s FANTASTIC article on Jay Bouwmeester’s numbers, what do you think the Blues could realistically expect in return if Bouwmeester was made available for trade? To me, maybe the biggest return would be the salary cap space, but I would love to hear your thoughts on it.

-Brandon

JR: Evan did a great job with the story. There are many amazing things to like about The Athletic, but to be able to balance the type of coverage we provide with knowledgeable writers like Evan is fantastic. Anyway, onto Bouwmeester, who by the way isn’t going anywhere. I could be wrong, but I just don’t see it. As you may know, he has a nagging injury and he’s not even practicing, only playing games. Which team in the National Hockey League is going to trade for a 34-year-old defenseman who has another year left on his contract ($5.4 million) and isn’t even practicing because of an injury? And IF the Blues wanted to trade him and IF there was a team that wanted him, Bouwmeester has a no-trade clause. The family just had another child recently, so I can’t imagine moving is high on their priority list. I suppose the Blues could buy him out next offseason. I don’t think that’s likely, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out. My guess is he plays out the final year of his deal next season, and as Evan Sporer wrote in his piece, Bouwmeester has got decent analytics with Colton Parayko, so as long as he’s healthy he can play there. Ideal? Not when you’ve got guys like Vince Dunn ready for a bigger role. But not the end of the world, either.

Let’s head to the Twitter-verse …

No. 5

#theathleticSTL what exactly is goalie interference?

— Rob Spencer (@ArmyDadBlues1) February 2, 2018

JR: If you know, let Armstrong know. Here’s what Rule 69 in the handy-dandy NHL rulebook says:

“This rule is based on the premise that an attacking player’s position, whether inside or outside the crease, should not, by itself, determine whether a goal should be allowed or disallowed. In other words, goals scored while attacking players are standing in the crease may, in appropriate circumstances be allowed. Goals should be disallowed only if: (1) an attacking player, either by his positioning or by contact, impairs the goalkeeper’s ability to move freely within his crease or defend his goal; or (2) an attacking player initiates intentional or deliberate contact with a goalkeeper, inside or outside of his goal crease … The overriding rationale of this rule is that a goalkeeper should have the ability to move freely within his goal crease without being hindered by the actions of an attacking player. If an attacking player enters the goal crease and, by his actions, impairs the goalkeepers ability to defend his goal, and a goal is scored, the goal will be disallowed.”

I think that last part is where many can agree Thursday’s goal in Boston should not have counted. Was Allen sliding prior to the contact? Yes. Did he make a great effort to get back in the crease? No. But he was still pushed out of the crease and had no realistic path to get back into position to defend the shot by David Krejci. Simple as that.

No. 6

Do you think if names such Jonathan Quick, Carey Price, or King Lundqvist are in this situation, this gets l called goalie interference? Allen doesn't get the call because he doesn't have the prestige behind his name? #theathleticSTL

— Brando (@brandon_harris2) February 2, 2018

JR: I understand where you’re coming from, but I don’t think that’s the case. First of all, I’ve seen plays with Price in net where officials could have called interference, but counted the goal. I think your premise gives too much credit to the NHL and officials that they know what goalie interference is. I don’t think the league has a firm idea of what’s a goal and what’s not a goal, regardless of who’s in net. As Armstrong said, nothing about the process is proactive. No one knows what a goal looks like going into the play. Everything is reactive: “Oh, that was a goal, and that wasn’t a goal.” Back to your point: has an all-world goalie like Price or Lundqvist ever gotten special treatment or received the benefit of the doubt? I’m sure it’s happened. But to me the bigger issue is that the league isn’t consistent enough on what’s a goal and what isn’t.

No. 7

Elliotte Friedman mentioned it in 31 thoughts, but is Schmaltz's name out in the trade front? What do you think Blues could fetch for him? #theathleticSTL

— Jacob Born (@jborn39) February 2, 2018

JR: I’ve thought for a while that Jordan Schmaltz could be included in a deal. Like Elliotte Friedman said, it’s not because the Blues don’t like him. They might have soured on him a little bit in the past, but Schmaltz has continued to work hard to keep himself in prospect status. He’s had a really good year this season, being selected for the AHL All-Star game even though an injury held him out. Blues director of player development Tim Taylor has been raving about Schmaltz this season, saying every time he’s on the ice he’s making a difference. So that’s good news for the Blues, but if you have Pietrangelo and Parayko locked in as your top two defensemen on the right side for years to come, and you like the physical element of Robert Bortuzzo in the third pair, then where does Schmaltz fit in? He’s one of the few prospects you have where you can afford to lose him and he has value elsewhere, so that’s why I think the Blues are OK with moving him in a deal that helps the NHL roster. I like Schmaltz. I think he’s been really patient waiting for his chance, sitting behind Pietrangelo, Parayko and Kevin Shattenkirk on the right side. But he was drafted six years ago, so it’s time to work him in the plans or trade him. If you don’t move him, you run the risk of him losing value.

No. 8

At this point in their careers, how does J. Kyrou compare to the likes of Ty Rattie? Should the Blues be looking to sell high on Kyrou considering Rattie didn't pan out? They seem like similar players… Small, fast, scores a lot. Thanks!#theathleticSTL

— Gregg Suydam (@LVFD9) February 2, 2018

JR: This is a great question, but I think I’ve got a legitimate response. Jordan Kyrou and Ty Rattie are similar in that they both ripped up junior hockey, but the Ontario Hockey League, where Kyrou has played with Sarnia, is seen as a more true barometer than the Western Hockey League, where Rattie played with Portland. I’m not saying WHL skill guys can’t play in the NHL, but it seems like it’s been tougher for their production to translate in the NHL. Second, I think Kyrou certainly has more skill and infinitely better skating ability, so from that standpoint, they don’t compare. But where they do compare is that if they’re not utilizing their skill and producing, you worry about them disappearing in some games. I think it’s less of a concern with Kyrou, but it’s still a concern. I think the Blues like Kyrou a lot more than they did Rattie at his highest potential and they have every intention of seeing Kyrou at training camp. I don’t believe they want to trade him, but if they were making a big-time deal and forced to trade one of the Big Four (Kyrou, Robert Thomas, Tage Thompson or Klim Kostin), they might consider Kyrou and rationalize it by saying he wasn’t a sure thing as far as a consistent contributor at the NHL level.

No. 9

If you trade for a player midseason, does the team acquiring that player have to take the full cap hit? For example, a player makes $1M and is traded 3 quarters into the season. Would the team taking on his contract take on the full $1M or $250K? #theathleticSTL

— JP (@jmp0726) February 2, 2018

JR: Salaries and cap hits are pro-rated, so the club that acquires a player is only on the hook for the remainder of the contract. Keep in mind also that teams can retain salary and cap hits, so if the Blues traded for a player who made $2 million or $5 million per year, they’d be responsible for less if the current club retained any of the salary.

No. 10

Why do the Blues put more goals up when Hutts is in net vs. Allen lately? #theathleticSTL

— BrocketMan (@theBrocketMan) February 2, 2018

JR: It’s a fair observation and I want to respond to it by comparing apples with apples. So in their last 10 starts, my numbers show that the Blues have scored 23 with Hutton in net and 13 with Allen in net. (Remember, those are starts only and most of those games happened with Jaden Schwartz out of the lineup). Without conducting some sort of scientific study on why this is, I think a lot of it has to do with Hutton making the miraculous saves and giving the Blues confidence to play on their toes. As I touched on earlier in the mailbag when answering Gary’s question, we saw the Blues playing on their heels behind Allen in Boston Thursday and perhaps they’ve been guilty of that with him in net over the last month. So it seems to be a bit of a confidence issue, as far as why the Blues are a little stronger offensively with Hutton in net.

Thank you for your questions!

(Main photo credit: Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images)