Bracket Watch: Texas is a top seed, Oklahoma State is in and so is Duke (barely)

Author and American socialist John Reed supposedly wrote “Ten Days That Shook The World,” his 1919 bestseller about the Russian Revolution that he witnessed firsthand, in the same amount of time as his book covered. Who knows if he actually finished the work in just 10 days, but his editor, Max Eastman, famously recalled interrupting Reed’s coffee run during his intensely productive period. Eastman described him thusly: “He was gaunt, unshaven, greasy skinned — a stark, sleepless, half-crazy look on his slightly potato-like face.”

We here at Bracket Watch can relate. To be clear, we really, really don’t want to talk about political coups right now. But we probably look a lot like Reed after putting together our second bracket, 10 earth-shaking days after its season debut.

Ah, so young and naïve we were then, way back on Dec. 30, 2020. Several teams have played at least two games since that first bracket, which for many represented a 20 percent increase in their season total. Remember, we’re still dealing with smaller bodies of work than we normally would see. Plus, the NCAA released its first NET rankings earlier this week, giving us more data to peruse, and confirmed that the NCAA Tournament will be played solely in the state of Indiana.

And, so it follows, there has been substantial movement since we last presented our mock field of 68.

For example, there’s a new No. 1 seed. Texas knocks Kansas off the top line, not least of which because the Longhorns clubbed the Jayhawks by 25 points in Allen Fieldhouse last Saturday. Texas is far from a lock to stay there, especially with teams such as Michigan and Wisconsin breathing down its neck. Still, it’s remarkable to consider that Shaka Smart was on the verge of being fired at the end of last season and may have only made it to this season because of his buyout and the pandemic. Now he could have a No. 1 seed in the tournament. Has that ever happened? We reviewed the top seeds going back to 1985 and couldn’t find any precedent, but perhaps we’re missing something. Let us know in the comments if you can think of a similar story.

We also issue a mea culpa of sorts to Oklahoma State. The Cowboys weren’t included in the first bracket because of the postseason ban the NCAA slapped on them before the season. But the NCAA has yet to hear the school’s appeal, and if there’s no finalization of the case before Selection Sunday, now just 64 days away, Oklahoma State could in fact play in the tourney. As you may have noticed, the NCAA doesn’t always move swiftly in these matters. The Cowboys certainly have a worthy résumé, so until we hear otherwise, they’re in the field.

Some teams made major ascensions, none bigger than Alabama. The Crimson Tide didn’t make our initial bracket but are now all the way up to a No. 5 seed. That’s what a win at Tennessee and one against Florida will do, especially since ’Bama has a top-30 NET ranking and a top-40 schedule.

Boise State also joins the party, albeit in the First Four. The Broncos are 8-1 and debuted with a top-15 NET ranking. Their only loss was at Houston when they were missing some key contributors. We believe.

The hardest conference to sort out? The ACC. As hard as it is to fathom, we have North Carolina and Duke on the No. 11 line. Neither is a lock to make the tournament. The Tar Heels are No. 60 in NET and are 0-3 in Quad 1 games, with their best win coming over Stanford in the Aloha Asheville Maui Invitational. Duke is even shakier at No. 103 in NET, no wins in Quads 1 or 2 and its best win coming over Notre Dame at home. But we think the committee will rely on the eye test a lot more this year, and it will give both teams the benefit of the doubt. Sure will be fun to find out.

Staying in the ACC, Syracuse is our first team out. That may surprise you, as the Orange are No. 34 in NET, No. 38 in KenPom and No. 31 on T-Rank. But dive in deeper, and you’ll see an 0-2 record in Quads 1 and 2 and a nonconference schedule barely cracking the top 100. Syracuse’s best two wins came by one point over Bryant and in overtime against Buffalo, and it just lost at home to Pitt. That’s not a tournament profile, and the eye test doesn’t do much to help either.

Our last team in the field is instead another school from upstate New York: St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies have played just five games, but they did win at Richmond. They’ve also looked good despite sitting 62nd in NET. The Atlantic 10 has been strong enough to garner at least two bids, and for this week, we’ll go with Bona. Check back again next Friday, however, because the world gets shaken up fast these days.

A couple of other notes on bracket No. 2:

• The NCAA still hasn’t said whether it will be sticking with traditional region names (East, South, Midwest and West) or calling them something else. So we’re going again with our Indiana tribute names for another week. In this bracket, the Final Four matchups would be Larry Bird vs. George McGinnis and John Wooden vs. Oscar Robertson regions.

• For the most part, we chose our projected autobid winners (denoted with an asterisk) based on the team with the highest NET ranking in the league. A couple of exceptions included the Patriot League, where we went with preseason favorite Boston U because conference teams began their season just last week, and the WAC, where we need to see somebody beat New Mexico State before we pick against the Aggies.

• Questions? Gripes? Bring them to the comments section, and I’ll do my best to respond.

(Top photo of Oklahoma State’s Bryce Williams: Michael C. Johnson / USA Today)