Bracket Watch: An NCAA Tournament without Duke and Kentucky? That may be reality

The year was 1976. Millard Fillmore was in his second year as president. Rin Tin Tin thrilled audiences on the silver screen. A gallon of gas cost a nickel, which in those days had pictures of bumblebees on them. “Give me five bees for a quarter,” you’d say.

OK, so none of that is true. But our nation’s bicentennial might feel more like an old-timey, Grandpa Simpson-esque era when you hear this fact: That was the last time neither Duke nor Kentucky made the NCAA Tournament. Now here we are 45 years later, and history could repeat itself.

Both the Blue Devils and Wildcats failed to make our latest mock field of 68. At 4-7, Kentucky is an obvious omission, and barring an unlikely turnaround, John Calipari’s team will have to win the SEC tournament to earn a bid. Duke was still ranked in both major polls at the beginning of the week because … reasons? But at 5-3, with a No. 98 NET ranking as of Thursday afternoon, no Quad 1 or 2 wins and a best victory at Notre Dame (No. 156 in NET), this looks nothing like a tournament profile. We’re not saying the Blue Devils can’t get things rolling, especially if Jalen Johnson returns to full health. It’s only Jan. 15, after all. But right now, only the uniforms suggest a team that deserves a spot.

They’re not the only blue bloods flirting with danger. North Carolina (No. 55 in NET), Syracuse (47) and Michigan State (86) all have major work to do on their résumés. You have to go back to 1965 — the heyday of Sterling Cooper Draper Pryce — to find an NCAA Tournament without one of these five schools, and that event only included 23 teams. Duke finished No. 10 in the AP poll that year but did not make the field. Those, as they say, were simpler times.

Recent bracket staples such as Florida (First Four) and Cincinnati (out) also are dipping toward NIT status, while Arizona took itself out of consideration with a self-imposed postseason ban. Indiana, Purdue and Maryland hover near the cut line.

Teams can improve their tournament fortunes quickly, and we have almost exactly two months left in the season. But if today were Selection Sunday, fans of a lot of familiar brand names would be moaning about the good ol’ days. Possibly while wearing an onion on their belt, which was the style at the time.

Some other notes on our third bracket:

• The big change this week? Michigan ascends to a No. 1 seed.

This was pretty much a no-brainer, even before Texas lost to Texas Tech on Wednesday night. The Wolverines are 11-0 and have risen to No. 3 in the NET behind Gonzaga and Baylor. While their résumé isn’t as perfect as their record — the only notable win away from Crisler Center was at Maryland — they get an A-plus on the eye test. The complete demolition of Wisconsin, which was a No. 2 seed on our board last week, was as impressive as anything we’ve seen all season. The Wolverines move ahead of Villanova, which will eventually, you know, need to play basketball again. One could make an argument for putting Texas ahead of the idle Wildcats, but only if one blacked out during ’Nova’s win over the Longhorns last month in Austin.

• Given the dearth of notable achievements from teams such as Duke, Syracuse, Arkansas and NC State, we decided to spread the love around a little more this week. That means a third team from the Atlantic 10 (Richmond) and a second one from the American Athletic (Wichita State) join the party. We hope the selection committee feels similarly generous, especially because nonconference scheduling was such a nightmare this season. Some of the bigger boys might have better metrics — Duke is No. 26 in KenPom, for instance, while Arkansas is 35th — but eventually you have to beat somebody of consequence.

• We’re sticking with our Indiana-themed region names for at least another week until we hear otherwise from NCAA headquarters. Likewise, we haven’t attempted to place these games in the various Hoosier State arenas because we don’t know how the committee will assign these games. Because all teams are staying in Indianapolis, it would make sense if the top seeds got to stay in town and play in Hinkle Fieldhouse, Bankers Life Fieldhouse or Lucas Oil Stadium. But we don’t yet know for sure.

• The potential Final Four matchups would pit the Bird Region vs. the McGinnis Region and the Wooden Region vs. the Robertson Region based on our seed list, which you can find below. An asterisk denotes projected conference autobid winner.

• Questions? Gripes? Praise? Bring ’em to the comments section and I’ll do my best to clap back.

(Illustration: John Bradford Sullivan / The Athletic. Photos: David K. Purdy and Brian Murphy / Getty)