This Friday morning, the Phillies will arrange their customary photo op with the Phanatic as he loads his hot dog launcher and other fragile items onto a large truck bound for Florida — so long as the furry green creature has conquered his parade hangover.
Baseball begins one week from Tuesday, when pitchers and catchers report. It is an afterthought for this intoxicated city. The Phillies, who have won the fewest games in Major League Baseball since the start of the 2012 season, are fine with that.
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There is no questioning whether the Phillies attempted to construct a better roster this winter; they added a $60 million bat and spent another $34.25 million on two relievers. The 60-player spring roster is better than the one that arrived at camp a year ago. The Phillies scored 80 more runs in 2017 than 2016, and the young offense should continue to improve in 2018.
Still, it is staggering to see the Phillies — as currently built — outspent by 28 other clubs. Only Oakland, according to accounting by Cot’s Contracts, has a lower projected payroll than the Phillies.
The incredible reality is this: The Phillies could add a $25 million per year player between now and the start of spring training and still rank in the bottom 10 of major-league payrolls.
Their projected payroll, when measured for luxury-tax purposes, is somewhere around $85 million. They have not carried a payroll that low since 2002, according to financial figures obtained by The Associated Press. The Phillies ranked 26th in baseball with a $103 million payroll in 2016; it was their lowest ranking since at least 1995.
Barring a surprise acquisition, they will rank lower in 2018.
Team officials all winter have insisted the money is not a barricade to further additions; rather, the years are. Team president Andy MacPhail was steadfast at the outset of the offseason in his desire to not sign a pitcher to a long-term contract. The Phillies, he said last October, will carry “a relatively low payroll” in 2018. The club’s payroll last season was $119 million, which ranked 22nd in baseball.
The goal of this rebuilding adventure was to shake free from bad contracts and reemphasize player development. That, given baseball’s salary structure, comes at the expense of payroll. The Phillies added $63.7 million in one-year salary commitments between 2016 and 2017 through trades and free-agent signings. They have added $84.25 million this winter — a larger figure because the guarantees are for multiple years.
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The Carlos Santana contract remains the second-largest signed this winter, topped only by Milwaukee’s agreement with Lorenzo Cain. But the 25-man roster could contain 15 players making at or near the major-league minimum. The willingness to let young players learn in the majors has abated payroll.
“Our owners have made it very clear since the day I arrived here they will spend,” Phillies general manager Matt Klentak said in January. “They will spare no expense to make this team great. They’ve backed it up. In December, we added three free agents. I have no doubt when that scenario presents itself again, they will continue to write those checks.
“It’s really more of baseball decisions at this point. We’re just wanting to make sure we properly devote the development time to players that need it, to make sure we are building a team that wins and sustains its winning for a long time.”
Projecting 2019
The Phillies front-loaded all three of their free-agent contracts this winter. Santana, Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek received, in total, $20 million worth of signing bonuses. That does not have an effect on the average annual value (AAV) of the deals, which is how payrolls are accounted for luxury-tax purposes. It could matter for cash flow later.
The base payroll will grow in 2019 even if the roster is unchanged. Aaron Nola, Hector Neris, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez and Aaron Altherr will be first-time eligibles for salary arbitration. Those raises — plus potential ones to Cesar Hernandez and Maikel Franco — will account for a larger (but not significant) piece of the payroll puzzle.
The Phillies have $43.23 million in guaranteed AAV for 2019 — the money to Santana, Hunter, Neshek and Odubel Herrera. Add raises for the arbitration players, plus benefits assessed to every club, and the Phillies are still roughly $100 million clear of the luxury-tax threshold, which will rise from $197 million to $206 million in 2019.
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It means anything is possible next winter.
So, why not now? Yu Darvish is the best pitcher available, although multiple reports have suggested he has a standing five-year offer on the table from a team. If that is the case, the Phillies will be outbid. Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn are still available, although the Phillies can nitpick flaws with all three pitchers. (Such is the nature of the modern game.) They would be more willing to strike a deal with a 30-year-old pitcher if contention was more realistic in 2018. Odds are the first year of a free-agent contract will be the most productive, especially for a pitcher, and that has swayed the decision-making process. The Phillies do not want to waste that year on a .500 club. They have not yet eliminated the possibility, sources have said, of signing one of the better available pitchers. But it is not likely.
The Phillies are a curious observer. The Yankees, Dodgers and Cubs, three teams who will compete for elite free agents next offseason, could be compelled to act now because the market is so suppressed. If it restricts their spending power for next offseason, the Phillies will rejoice.
Baseball dreams, of course, are not made of stalemates over millions by billion-dollar corporations.
The immediate
The Phillies, since the National League expanded to a 162-game schedule in 1962, have authored a 15-win improvement from season to season four times. They did it in 1962 (34-win improvement), 1976 (15 wins), 1993 (27 wins) and 2001 (21 wins). A 15-win improvement in 2018 would push the Phillies to .500 — not a contender, but respectable.
This spring, the Phillies will point to two surprise teams in 2017 — the 26-win improvement made by Minnesota and Milwaukee’s 13-win improvement. Both were lucky and young. Only one made the postseason and fell in a one-game playoff. Those are the most optimistic projections for the Phillies.
The projections at FanGraphs peg the current roster at a nine-win improvement, with a 75-87 record. Internally, the Phillies point to an improved second-half mark in 2017 (37-38), bad luck in one-run games (21-36), and an increased dedication in the dugout to analytics as indicators that the 2018 roster could outperform its projections. But that is not enough, at least not yet, to compel the Phillies to strike another major deal for a pitcher.
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The Phillies have pursued pie-in-the-sky trades — think Danny Duffy and Chris Archer — but are reluctant to surrender either of their top prospects, Sixto Sanchez or Scott Kingery. That will restrict the trade options.
But there are overwhelming reasons for the Phillies to add a starter, even if it is not a top-tier one, for 2018. There is no downside to a veteran fourth starter. The money, on a shorter-term deal, is meaningless to the Phillies. The innings he would steal from a younger pitcher are more significant but palatable because the Phillies will still have four rotation spots reserved for developing arms. There are good-faith measures that can appease fans and other prospective players, although they may not be enough to compel.
“To add just a guy for the sake of adding a guy,” Klentak said in January, “that doesn’t interest me.”
That is why, for now, the big-market Phillies have a minuscule payroll.
Top photo: Mitchell Leff/Getty Images; Graphic by Ben Harris
