De’Andre Hunter’s growth, John Collins’ role: What we’ve learned about the Hawks

Though the mentions of the “Core Five” have dramatically decreased this year as the Hawks have increased the talent pool around their young stars with their prized free-agent signings (who mostly haven’t done much of anything yet) and the implementation of Clint Capela, Wednesday’s game against Brooklyn was a reminder of how much that group collectively has improved this year.

The Nets had their full squad, which includes three future first-ballot Hall of Fame players, Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving, and the “Core Five” carried the Hawks into overtime against one of the few teams that certainly can win the NBA championship this year.

It was De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish, the second-year wings, shooting a combined 16 of 29 from the floor and scoring 45 points. It was John Collins scoring 21 on 9-of-14 shooting and continuing his growth as a rim protector. It was Kevin Huerter coming up clutch once again in the fourth quarter and making key shots. And it was Trae Young scoring 28 and racking up 14 assists, and though he didn’t shoot well, he still was mostly in control throughout.

The Hawks lost 132-128, but this game was a reminder of how far these five players have come in just a few seasons in the league.

“I really admire what Lloyd (Pierce)’s doing,” Nets coach Steve Nash said. “This is a tough matchup for us. They stretch you out. They space the floor. They put the ball in players’ hands and give them some freedom of confidence but within a structure. It’s very difficult to guard. They have a little bit of diversity in their offense. They play hard. They got length. Lloyd is a great young coach and only getting better. The Hawks are really lucky to have him.”

Irving, unprompted, said, “This is a good Hawks team, and we could have folded at any point in the fourth quarter.” At some point, the moral victories won’t be good enough, but if we’re realistic, the Hawks aren’t winning the title this season. They likely aren’t winning it next season, either. While they’re out of the “growth and development” stage in which players aren’t just handed minutes anymore to gain experience, the Hawks are — and should be — still in the business of growing as a team and establishing what they can be long term. Games like Wednesday’s against one of the most talented teams in the league are a reminder that progress has been made, but the Hawks aren’t in that class just yet.

What should be encouraging is this young group is trending in the right direction. The Hawks no longer view these games against top opponents as measuring sticks for where they stand because they have confidence that they belong.

“I think for us, of course, at the beginning of the year we looked at it that way,” Young said. “At this point, we feel like we can be in the mix. We feel like we can be in the mix with some of these top teams. We’re never gonna just look at an opponent any differently. For us, we’re just going to go out there and believe we should win each and every game, which we should.”

“We can play with anybody,” Reddish said. “Obviously, the game went into overtime. We got to find some ways to win at the end. They’re a tough cover, but I think we have to find ways to win.”

After Wednesday’s game, we’ve reached the completion of 25 percent of the Hawks’ season with the Hawks 9-9 and the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference, which would put them in the play-in tournament this season (as a reminder, that’s happening with seeds 7-10).

Here’s what we’ve learned about the Hawks so far this season.

The frontcourt defense is legit

Out of all the two-man lineup combinations across the NBA that have played at least 200 minutes with each other, the Collins-Capela pairing has a 95.9 defensive rating, ranking it 12th. With Collins at power forward and Capela at center, opposing teams are shooting 56.8 percent at the rim and 37.6 percent in the midrange, and both numbers are above the 85th percentile, per Cleaning The Glass. Teams have a 47 percent effective field goal percentage with this pair on the floor together, ranking it in the 99th percentile.

As a pair, it is one of the biggest reasons why the Hawks have a top-10 defense in the NBA. Capela has cleaned up at the rim with opponents shooting 6.5 percentage points worse than the league average at the rim against him and 10.5 percentage points worse in the short midrange against Collins, per Cleaning The Glass.

A good synecdoche of why the Collins/Capela frontcourt has been so effective on defense.

Collins with the off-ball rim protection, and then when he goes out to contest Lou Will's 3, Capela is there to block out Zubac and get the rebound pic.twitter.com/LpPqRdFVjU

— Schoolboy Qanon (@bowser2bowser) January 27, 2021

If the two of them can continue to play at such a high level defensively, the Hawks no doubt are going to be one of the playoff teams and could be a top-six seed and not worry about the play-in tournament.

Collins’ offensive role has evolved

With Capela on the floor with him, Collins’ offensive game has shifted to being more of a shooter than a roller. Last season, Collins had 5.1 pick-and-roll plays per game, the third most in the league. He scored 1.31 points per possession on pick-and-rolls and finished in the 82nd percentile in effectiveness.

This season, Collins only has received 2.6 pick-and-roll plays per game, is scoring 0.78 points per possession and is in the 11th percentile in effectiveness. Capela actually has 2.4 pick-and-roll plays per game, but Capela’s presence — and Hunter’s emergence, too — certainly has changed how the Hawks use Collins on offense. Collins went from 67.5 touches and 9.4 paint touches per game last season to 57.2 touches and 6.9 paint touches per game this season.

Fifty-five percent of Collins’ shot attempts came at the rim last season, but only 47 percent have come at the rim this season. Collins has had to adjust his game to the Hawks’ roster, and, to his credit, he’s succeeded at doing so. Collins ranked 11th in the NBA entering Wednesday’s game in Wins Above Replacement.

Though Collins’ numbers likely won’t end up being what they were last year, he’s still a tremendously effective player who contributes to winning basketball. Full stop. The Hawks are 17.4 points better with Collins on the floor. This is not by accident.

Hunter’s emergence is real and here to stay

No, I didn’t see Hunter becoming the trusted secondary playmaker on the wing that we talked about the Hawks needing all offseason before free agency. No, I didn’t see Hunter being double-teamed (WHAT?!) by anyone this season.

What's more interesting:
A) Teams are double-teaming Hunter in the post
B) Hunter is scoring anyways pic.twitter.com/izp8mLoQMD

— Schoolboy Qanon (@bowser2bowser) January 28, 2021

No, I didn’t see Hunter being able to take Kevin Durant off the dribble and finish at the rim this season. No, I didn’t expect to say, “Would the Hawks be this good without Hunter?” I didn’t see any of what we’ve seen this year coming from Hunter. I really liked Hunter coming out of Virginia and thought he was going to be an effective high-rotation player in the NBA who can be counted on to make smart plays. I didn’t see him having the ability to take defenders off the dribble, score 20 points nightly and be so dominant at the three. The Hawks are 15.3 points better (!) when Hunter is at small forward. They were 6.4 points worse with Hunter at small forward last season; they were three points better when he was at the four.

One of the biggest reasons Hunter has improved mightily this season is his ability to score in the midrange. He has made 55 percent of his midrange shots, which ranks him in the 95th percentile, per Cleaning The Glass. He also has made 63 percent of his shots at the rim, which is still league average for forwards, but it’s up from 55 percent last season.

He also has taken a considerable step forward defensively, as opponents are shooting 4.2 percentage points worse at the rim and 2 percentage points worse in the midrange.

Hunter’s growth is arguably the most important development through 25 games for the Hawks, and I wrote about how he has grown, if you haven’t read it already.

Young’s floater game isn’t the same

Young scored 280 points off floaters last season, 71 points more than Ja Morant, who finished second in the NBA. This season, Young is in the bottom 25 percentile of points per possession when shooting a floater. He only has made 33.7 percent of his floater attempts this season.

One of the reasons for this could be because the paint is crowded. Because of Capela’s presence, there’s now an opposing center who’s always going to be in the paint with Capela on the floor. The Hawks are shooting 6.3 percentage points worse at the rim and 5.8 percentage points worse in the short midrange (that floater zone) with Capela on the floor.

The floater is a tough shot as is so it could be something just as simple as not finding the touch just yet, but Capela’s presence seems to be a plausible theory as to why it has been a struggle for Young to find his touch so far.

Young’s shooting numbers across the board have been down from last season, but because he has proved how gifted of an offensive player he is, I would expect him to round into form eventually.

The Hawks have gotten close to nothing out of their free-agent signings

Kris Dunn hasn’t played a game. Rajon Rondo has been mostly ineffective. Bogdan Bogdanovic played in nine games and was putting up career lows across the board. Danilo Gallinari missed a couple of weeks with an ankle injury and remains on a minutes restriction and hasn’t rounded into form. The only free agent who has been available every game has been Solomon Hill, who’s shooting below 36 percent from the field.

The Hawks have been winning games despite their prized signings not doing much of anything so far; that’s why Hunter’s growth has been so important because someone else had to step up.

Onyeka Okongwu’s time is coming, but when?

Okongwu has only played in four games and received limited minutes. It’s impossible to have any sweeping take on his performance because of how little he has played, but at some point, he’s going to exert himself into the rotation. Hill is a fixture in the rotation now, but he’s likely going to end up losing his minutes, which could be a way for Okongwu to get some extra time on the floor. What is clear is Okongwu is already ahead of Bruno Fernando on the depth chart, which doesn’t bode well for Fernando’s future with the team.

In the minutes Okongwu has played, especially against Milwaukee, I was impressed with his help instincts on defense, which is a good sign for a rookie. He’s still going to have to learn where he should be on the court, which will come with time, but he’s going to eventually play more than he has so far.

A reminder that progress isn’t always linear

Reddish’s buzz coming off of how he ended his rookie season and heading into the offseason, where we were told of him balling out in offseason pickup games against Durant and a few other Nets players, has almost died off. He played very well Wednesday night against Durant, who was his favorite player growing up and the one he studied the most, but it has been a mostly underwhelming season for Reddish, particularly offensively.

Most people, myself included, expected Reddish to have the breakout season Hunter is having, but, of course, it has been the opposite. Reddish is only 21 years old and still learning, so there’s no reason to panic about his trajectory.

“Some of you guys may be surprised,” Pierce said Tuesday. “I’m not. It’s my job to help him grow. It isn’t about shots. It isn’t about makes and misses. It’s about nuances. Can you wait a second longer on a pick-and-roll so you can create some separation? Can you let the screener come to your body as opposed to running to the screener or running to the basketball? Little things that require film watching, that require patience, that require an understanding of how the defense is playing will help him grow and then he can start working on it.

“There’s no panic. He’s struggled the last couple of games shooting the basketball, but there’s so many things that he’s capable of doing.”

There’s no denying the numbers have been brutal. Entering Wednesday’s game, he had only made 4 of 30 midrange shots this season and 31 percent of his 3-point attempts. He has been just above league average in finishing at the rim, which is good considering he was in the 19th percentile last season, but overall, he has been out of control on offense, which is what we saw at the start of last season.

With Reddish, it’s more about finding consistency because the talent is there, as evidenced by his performance against the Nets.

Cam Reddish is so fun pic.twitter.com/yeRlp8fOiS

— Schoolboy Qanon (@bowser2bowser) January 28, 2021

Like Pierce said, if Reddish can just let the game come to him more, he’s going to be fine. That’s what he did in the second half of last season and we saw what he can do.

He has a high ceiling because of his skills package, but the floor always has been lower than Hunter’s. But you hope with more experience, he’ll figure it out eventually.

What’s next?

The Hawks are in the middle of a brutal stretch of games during which we’ll have a much better idea of what this team can be this season after it’s over. The Hawks have Washington on Friday (the Wizards are playing awful basketball despite Bradley Beal’s brilliance), and then they face the Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas, Utah and Toronto all next week.

Atlanta is much improved this season, and we’ll see by just how much after this coming week of games.

(Photo of De’Andre Hunter: Dale Zanine / USA Today)