Bills outlook for 2021: Who stays and who goes from the current roster?

Following one of the best seasons in franchise history, the Bills must quickly transition into offseason mode. If the NFL stick to its original schedule, the Bills have just a month and a half before the start of the new league year, when they must make the majority of their biggest decisions.

The Bills will also have to navigate an unprecedented offseason while trying to sustain the success of making it to the AFC Championship Game. Due to the pandemic, the NFL’s 2021 salary cap is setting up for a substantial decrease, with a $175 million floor. Even if the cap figure comes in above the floor, it still represents a vastly different figure from the usual yearly increase. Bills GM Brandon Beane said before the pandemic that most around the league anticipated an increase from the 2020 limit of $198 million, to $210 or $215 million.

In addition to all of those challenges, the Bills have many players on expiring contracts, including three core starters. If they have any hope of re-signing some of their own, they’ll need to release a handful veteran players.

In an offseason filled with difficult decisions, who stays and who goes? Here is a full look at what the future could hold for 27 players who directly impacted the Bills in 2020.

The Bills’ cap situation

Before we get to the names, it’s important to understand what the Bills will be encountering with the cap and how it relates to their situation. According to Spotrac, the Bills’ current cap figure for their Top 51 in 2021 is just under $185 million. Helping the Bills slightly is the fact they will roll over roughly $3.7 million of their 2020 cap room into next year’s total. Depending on where the 2021 cap lands, the Bills might have to release players just to get to the salary cap — before they even think about re-signing their own or adding free agents.

They also have to allocate cap room for the 2021 draft class. If we compare the cap hits in the 2020 draft to where the Bills are selecting in 2021, they will account for roughly $6.5 million. Due to the Top 51 rule, though, some of the smaller figures could drop off if they do not qualify as one of the 51 highest cap hits. The rookie cap hits that do qualify would replace the lowest remaining ones. Taking the Top 51 roster as is, the Bills would add around $1.5 million with their rookie class.

Players under contract

*Potential cap savings reflects the money saved, with $780,000 subtracted for the player entering the Top 51. The $700,000 is not an absolute figure and could end up slightly higher or lower based on the bottom of the roster.

WR John Brown

Age: 31 in April
Contract status: ~$9.53 million cap hit, expires after 2021
Potential cap savings if released: ~$7.23 million

Verdict: Goes

After playing the pivotal role as Josh Allen’s top target in 2019, Brown fell off in 2020. He suffered multiple injuries that kept him out of the lineup for seven games, and when he was available, he was inconsistent. In the 12 games Brown played, he took 81 percent of the Bills’ offensive snaps and averaged only 3.6 receptions per game for 45.3 yards and three total touchdowns. Teams held Brown to two catches or fewer in five of his 12 games, and he went without a reception in three of those games. He failed to eclipse 100 yards in a single game and, on film, it didn’t seem as though his footwork and routes were as effective as they once were. For a receiver who depends on speed and burst to separate, it’s a concerning trend.

Brown remains a player Allen, Beane and coach Sean McDermott all love having around in the locker room, but substantial cap savings, growing concern over his effectiveness and a developing internal replacement in Gabriel Davis are all point toward another direction. Keeping Brown for the final year of his contract seems to be a luxury.

DE Jerry Hughes

Age: 33 in August
Contract status: ~$9.45 million cap hit, expires after 2021
Potential cap savings if released: ~$6.65 million

Verdict: Stays

Jerry Hughes was vital to the Bills’ pass rush in 2020 as one of the best one-on-one pass-rush win rate defensive ends in the NFL. By the end of the season, the Bills had Hughes playing primarily at left defensive end to work against slower right tackles. The results, particularly in the playoffs, were evident. Hughes managed three sacks over those three playoff games, but sacks rarely tell the full story with him. Hughes garners a lot of attention from the offensive line and often forces the ball out of the quarterback’s hands earlier than he wants. Hughes was one of the most impactful defenders this past season and, even in his 30s, he continues to show strong burst and movement abilities. Regardless of the savings, taking him out of the roster picture makes the Bills a lot worse on the field. It should be an easy decision to bring Hughes back in 2021.

DT Vernon Butler

Age: 27 in June
Contract status: ~$7.82 million cap hit, expires after 2021
Potential cap savings if released: ~$6.12 million

Verdict: Goes, but could stay if Milano departs

Before the pandemic forced the NFL to think about 2021 cap ramifications, the Bills signed Vernon Butler to a two-year, $15 million contract on March 17. They hoped Butler would be a pivotal rotational player since they still had cap flexibility with Allen on his rookie contract. Butler was supposed to combine with Ed Oliver, Star Lotulelei, Quinton Jefferson and Harrison Phillips as a dynamic, versatile and unpredictable defensive line, but that didn’t pan out after Lotulelei opted out of the season. Lotulelei’s decision put the Bills in a tough spot without a legitimate starting one-technique defensive tackle. Eventually, Butler assumed that role even though he is best suited as a three-technique. Butler had a solid but inconsistent season in 2020.

At defensive tackle, the Bills have some players they can depend on heading into 2021. Phillips played much better at the end of the season and is a low-cost rotational player, Lotulelei could be returning and Justin Zimmer emerged as a solid rotational piece. Keeping Butler would be worthwhile, especially at his age, but the potential savings they’d get by releasing him are too big to overlook. If the cap comes in around $185 million and Matt Milano moves on to a different team, Butler could stick around. However, Butler has a $1 million bonus that becomes guaranteed on the fifth day of the new league year, which means the Bills have to make up their mind on him by March 21.

DT Quinton Jefferson

Age: 28 in March
Contract status: $8 million cap hit, expires after 2021
Potential cap savings if released: ~$5.8 million

Verdict: Goes

The Bills had high hopes for Jefferson as a versatile player on their defensive line. They even listed him as a “defensive lineman” despite every other player having a designation as “end” or “tackle.” They likely wanted him to fill a hybrid role, but Lotulelei’s opt-out started a domino effect. Without Lotulelei, Jefferson was forced into a full-time defensive tackle role. That decision, plus Epenesa’s slow training camp, also likely led to Trent Murphy sticking around in 2020. Jefferson struggled as a run defender at defensive tackle and was pushed off his spot far too often. He offered some good pass-rushing reps on third down, but not enough to rescue the Bills from their defensive problems this season.

The Bills signed Jefferson the same day as Butler to a very similar contract. Butler and Jefferson each received two-year deals with an easy out in the second year, and each has the $1 million bonus that becomes guaranteed on March 21. Given Jefferson’s performance, Epenesa’s emergence and the Bills’ defensive tackle depth without Butler and Jefferson, it would make sense for the Bills to move on from Jefferson this offseason. As with Butler, the decision on Milano could play a role in the $185 million cap. Jefferson’s saving grace could be his versatility, and maybe the Bills believe in his defensive fit more than that of Butler. If judged on performance alone, however, Butler should be the one they consider.

DE Mario Addison

Age: 34 in September
Contract status: ~$10.16 million cap hit, expires after 2022
Potential cap savings if released: ~$5.46 million

Verdict: Stays, but with a contract restructure

The Bills viewed Addison as a perfect fit for their scheme, financial profile and locker room when they signed him in the offseason. Addison became their starting right defensive end and played at an above-average level all season. He didn’t provide consistent pressure off the edge, but he played the run well and made some quarterbacks nervous if they hung around the pocket too long. However, the gap between Addison and Epenesa started to close by the end of the season and, given Addison’s contract, the Bills might not be able to ignore his potential cap savings.

While Epenesa made strides at the end of the season and in the playoffs, there isn’t enough evidence yet to bank on him as a starter moving forward. The Bills do have an opportunity to restructure Addison’s contract. If they convert $5.625 million of his $6.625 million base salary into a signing bonus, the $5.625 million would prorate over this year and next year. It would reduce their cap hit this year by $2.8 million and still give the Bills a way to move on from him next year. It would put his potential 2022 cap savings at roughly $5.4 million.

FS Micah Hyde

Age: 31 in December
Contract status: ~$6.72 million cap hit, expires after 2021
Potential cap savings if released: ~$4.42 million

Verdict: Stays

Micah Hyde has been a constant for the defense, patrolling the middle as the free safety and forcing teams out of throwing deep because of his coverage. Hyde didn’t show any decline in his performance as he reached 30 years old in December. He still looks like a player in his prime and forms a strong duo with Jordan Poyer. The Bills’ defense would take a step back without him. Hyde will also be integral in developing backup free safety Jaquan Johnson, who shows plenty of promise whenever he gets defensive snaps. The Bills should hang onto Hyde for the final year of his deal, hope for a salary cap surge in 2022 and try to retain him again.

C Mitch Morse

Age: 29 in April
Contract status: ~$10.34 million cap hit, expires after 2022
Potential cap savings if released: ~$4.14 million

Verdict: Stays, but with a contract restructure

The Bills raised some eyebrows midseason when they kept Morse on the bench after he’d been cleared to return from a concussion. Even more curious, after the season, Beane mentioned that Morse wasn’t a perfect fit for the Bills’ power-based run-blocking scheme in 2020. The Bills GM did add that Morse played well in the second half of the season. The film showed that Morse did struggle as the team’s center in the playoffs, which further complicates the situation.

Even when considering the money they’d save by releasing Morse, the Bills stand to lose a lot on the offensive line this offseason. Jon Feliciano, Daryl Williams, Ty Nsekhe and Brian Winters are all unrestricted free agents. Ike Boettger is a restricted free agent. Even if they retain one or two of those five, they’d have little depth without Morse. If the Bills restructure Morse’s contract, they can save just over $3 million on this year’s salary cap, which is only about $1 million less than they’d save by cutting him outright. That $1 million in potential savings isn’t worth losing a potential starter in front of Allen. It would also maximize the Bills’ flexibility in the draft this year since they’d need one fewer offensive lineman with the potential to start. I’ve wrestled back and forth on the Morse decision, and ultimately, getting the best of both worlds (some savings and a starter) makes the most sense.

LB A.J. Klein

Age: 30 in July
Contract status: $6.4 million cap hit, expires after 2022
Potential cap savings if released: ~$1.7 million

Verdict: Stays, with a contract restructure

If Milano moves on, Klein will be especially important in the early stages of 2021. A Milano departure would likely make drafting an outside linebacker a priority, but the Bills have historically developed most of their draft picks slowly. Klein would thus play snaps until the young player is ready for a full role, increasing his value internally. Regardless of what happens with Milano, the Bills could save nearly as much by restructuring Klein’s contract than they would by cutting him. If they converted $3.1 million of Klein’s $4.1 million base salary to a signing bonus in 2021, Klein’s cap hit would go down this year by roughly $1.6 million. The Bills would also have the ability to release him next year and still save $3.6 million on the 2022 cap.

TE Lee Smith

Age: 34 in November
Contract status: $2.25 million cap hit, expires after 2021
Potential cap savings if released: $1.55 million

Verdict: Goes

The Lee Smith decision is a pretty easy one. The Bills don’t have to deal with a dead cap situation, they’d save a decent amount and they’ve already stated they want more out of the tight end group. They love Smith’s leadership, but even he has admitted he’s near the end of his career. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Smith retire, either.

DT Star Lotulelei

Age: 32 in December
Contract status: $7.6 million cap hit, expires after 2023
Potential cap savings if released: $-4.9 million

Verdict: Stays

If Lotulelei chooses to return from his opt-out, the Bills don’t have a choice. Cutting Lotulelei would mean tacking an additional $4.2 million in dead money onto the 2021 salary cap, and the Bills can’t afford that. There is also the lingering question about the 31-year-old defensive tackle and if he’ll want to return next year. They could incentivize Lotulelei to return by restructuring his deal in a way that gives him both money right now and some salary cap relief, but that would be kicking the issue down the road.

If Lotulelei returns, it would be in the Bills’ best interest to take the cap hit as is so they have more optimal cap savings in 2022 when he’s 32. They can save $1.5 million elsewhere. They could try to restructure Lotulelei’s deal like they did Tyler Kroft’s this past offseason. Still, Lotulelei is in the driver’s seat knowing the Bills can’t cut him without a massive penalty. In the short term, he’s a starting one-technique defensive tackle and provides the size and run defending they lacked all season from that position.

Upcoming free agents

LB Matt Milano

Age: 27 in July
Status: Unrestricted free agent

Verdict: Goes at $175 million cap, but stays at $185 million cap

A former fifth-round pick, Milano is an impact defender for the Bills. His instincts, explosiveness and abilities in coverage make him a fit for just about any scheme and he’d be a difficult player for the Bills to replace. In a typical year, the Bills would probably get Milano re-signed. But on the open market this offseason, he could sign for around $13 million per season. That type of hit on a $175 million cap — even after cutting Brown, Jefferson, Butler and Smith and restructuring the contracts of Addison, Morse and Klein — would leave them with roughly $9 million in cap space. And they would still have holes to fill at quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, two starting offensive line positions, cornerback, punter and special teams. The Bills gave the “earned his right to test free agency” response when asked about Milano, which suggests toward which direction he might be leaning.

The Bills also can use the franchise tag for about $15 million to keep Milano around if he’s unwilling to sign before free agency. If they go that route, the Bills would likely hope for a potential cap surge in 2022 so they can figure out long-term deals for their linebacking core next season. Teams are hopeful to have the official cap figure by the March 9 tagging deadline to assist in those decisions. Because of the other holes on the Bills’ roster, the only way Milano’s return seems plausible is if the cap lands somewhere between at least $180 and $185 million, or they make additional cuts and restructures past the seven listed. If Milano signs elsewhere at the $13 million cap hit, the Bills could also be in position for a potential third-round compensatory pick in 2022.

G/C Jon Feliciano

Age: 29 on February 10
Status: Unrestricted free agent

Verdict: Stays

A favorite among the players and coaching staff, Feliciano has carved out a role as a rugged power blocker who can play all three interior positions. Feliciano’s reputation is slightly inflated — he’s a good player who sometimes struggles with defenders who get out of their stances quickly. But the Bills view him as a leader and will likely want him to return this offseason to help protect Allen. If the Bills intend to move on from Morse either this offseason or next, Feliciano will be even more important to the roster moving forward. He could step in and play center if necessary, or he could remain at guard for the foreseeable future.

Feliciano has a fair price point, likely somewhere between $5-to-$8 million per season, he has a tight relationship with offensive line coach Bobby Johnson and he has loved his time in Buffalo. Retaining Feliciano and restructuring Morse’s contract would give the Bills four locked-in starters for 2021 along with Dion Dawkins and Cody Ford. They would then have the flexibility to draft either a guard or a tackle in 2021.

RT Daryl Williams

Age: 29 in August
Status: Unrestricted free agent

Verdict: Goes

The Bills signed Daryl Williams to a one-year, prove-it deal last offseason, and there was no way they could have predicted how well he’d play. Beane said they thought Williams would factor in at guard; instead, Williams shined at right tackle right from the start of training camp. The Bills will likely need to go with just two of the three between him, Morse and Feliciano. Despite Williams’ results, his injury history and past performances are concerning enough to discourage a long-term contract. The Bills also locked a lot of money into Dawkins at left tackle and the 2021 draft is heavy on good offensive tackle prospects, so the Bills could wind up finding a starter in the first or second round. Williams had a great year, but if he signs for up to $10 million per season, that cost is a bit too high for the Bills.

DE Trent Murphy

Age: 31 in December
Status: Unrestricted free agent

Verdict: Goes

The Bills made a mistake in keeping Trent Murphy for the 2020 season. They missed out on $7 million in rollover savings to 2021 for a player who was a healthy scratch for eight of the team’s 19 games. Lotulelei’s opt-out and Epenesa’s slow start likely convinced them to retain Murphy, but the Bills could have kept defensive tackle Vincent Taylor, played Jefferson at defensive end and delivered a similar result. Murphy’s contract has now expired, and with Hughes, Addison, Epenesa and Johnson all under contract for 2021, Murphy will likely play elsewhere next season.

CB Josh Norman

Age: 34 in December
Status: Unrestricted free agent

Verdict: Goes

The Bills hoped Josh Norman’s return to the defensive scheme that made him a star would make him a good running mate for Tre’Davious White. However, a hamstring injury and a stay on the Reserve/COVID-19 list derailed his season. By the time he returned, he was a backup and eventually split snaps with Levi Wallace. Norman was an average player and nothing near what they signed him for this season. The Bills are likely to move on from Norman since they believe in 2020 seventh-round pick Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace as a depth option. Given how long Norman lingered on the field after the AFC Championship Game and how upset he seemed, it also wouldn’t be a surprise if that was his last game in the NFL.

QB Matt Barkley

Age: 31 in September
Status: Unrestricted free agent

Verdict: Stays

On the field, the Bills could get an upgrade over Barkley, but they are a big proponent of people who fit into their locker room seamlessly. Barkley has become a favorite and has contributed to Allen’s development over the last two seasons as a selfless supporter. Perhaps the Bills are waiting to see how the backup quarterback market takes shape in free agency, but Barkley is a cost-effective fallback option for a team hoping to compete for a Super Bowl next season.

WR Andre Roberts

Age: 34 in January
Status: Unrestricted free agent

Verdict: Goes

Roberts lived up to his free-agent contract as a kick and punt returner this season. But he is also a non-factor on offense and on kick and punt coverage units. It’s difficult for the Bills to justify keeping Roberts over another receiver who does more for the team in a cap-strapped year. At 33, Roberts is likely approaching the end of his playing prime.

WR Isaiah McKenzie

Age: 26 in April
Status: Unrestricted free agent

Verdict: Stays

A late-season waiver claim in 2018, Isaiah McKenzie has made his mark in Buffalo. McKenzie played many offensive snaps in 2019 before becoming a 10- to 20-snap per game player in 2020. He can play both at slot receiver and on the boundary, and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll created a handful of plays just for the speedy McKenzie. He also showed his ability as a punt returner in Week 17, returning one for a touchdown. Given his age, low cost, offensive role and return ability, McKenzie seems like a strong replacement option for Roberts.

RB T.J. Yeldon

Age: 28 in October
Status: Unrestricted free agent

Verdict: Goes

The Bills kept T.J. Yeldon around until the end of his contract as injury insurance for Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. Yeldon stepped in late in the year and performed well enough when called upon, but he didn’t do enough to separate himself from what a younger, less expensive player could do. The Bills will likely move on with a different RB3 in 2021.

OT Ty Nsekhe

Age: 36 in October
Status: Unrestricted free agent

Verdict: Goes

After signing a substantial free-agent contract in 2019, Ty Nsekhe mostly became a depth player over two seasons in Buffalo. Expect the Bills to get younger at offensive tackle — potentially using a draft pick on one — and to move on from Nsekhe. As with Smith and Norman, it also wouldn’t be a surprise if Nsekhe retires from the NFL given his age.

S Dean Marlowe

Age: 29 in July
Status: Unrestricted free agent

Verdict: Stays

Marlowe has worked with McDermott for nearly his entire NFL career and has developed into a dependable backup strong safety. Marlowe can also play free safety and nickel corner and serve as a reliable special teams player, which increases his value. Given his low cost and the familiarity and trust the Bills have in Marlowe, it makes too much for him to sign another one-year agreement.

TE Tyler Kroft

Age: 29 in October
Status: Unrestricted free agent

Verdict: Goes

The Bills restructured Kroft’s contract to remove the third season, making him an unrestricted free agent this March. Kroft was a healthy scratch for seven of the team’s final nine games, was on the Reserve/COVID-19 list for another and received only 12 snaps in his lone active game. The Bills are likely to overhaul the tight end position, meaning this is likely the end for Kroft in Buffalo.

RB Taiwan Jones

Age: 33 in July
Status: Unrestricted free agent

Verdict: Stays

Bringing Taiwan Jones back might be a small luxury, but it’s a pretty cost-effective one because his cap hit would be offset by another Top 51 contract. Bills special teams coordinator Heath Farwell raved about Jones and used him in all four phases. A new one-year deal likely won’t have a lot of guaranteed money, so they could get out of it easily after camp if someone outplays him.

OL Ike Boettger, LB Andre Smith, CB Levi Wallace, P Corey Bojorquez

Status: Restricted free agents

Verdict: Stay

It should be an easy decision for the Bills to issue tenders for all of them and get them back at a low cost. All four had a role in 2020 and that should carry into 2021. Boettger is a dependable depth option who can start if necessary. Wallace might not be a starter moving forward, but he provides good depth at a position where there are many injuries. Smith is a core-four special teams player who will play a big role for Farwell next season. Bojorquez has become one of the best young punters in football. The Bills trusted him and he rewarded them with an excellent third season. Bojorquez might even end up receiving the biggest contract of the group.

(Photo of Matt Milano: Timothy T Ludwig / Getty Images)