Bracket Watch: Baylor, Gonzaga’s march toward the NCAA Tournament is historical

On Dec. 5, your humble Bracket Watcher practically skipped through the front doors of Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, prepared to witness greatness. After a temperature check and a few medical questions, a nice woman handed me my credential. But, she cautioned, there would be a short wait before anyone was allowed to go through the metal detectors for admission. A few minutes later, my phone buzzed with some disappointing but not unexpected news: The Gonzaga-Baylor game wasn’t going to be played that day, although both coaches pledged to find a makeup date.

Today is Feb. 5. That game still hasn’t happened and isn’t likely to occur in the next five weeks. And as excited as we were to see the Bulldogs and Bears go at it two months ago, we now hope it doesn’t happen in the regular season.

That’s because it’s more fun right now to watch both teams dominate and then debate which one is better. It really is remarkable how much they have separated themselves from the pack and how they continue to run neck-and-neck with each other. After its win at Texas on Tuesday, Baylor took over the No. 1 spot at KenPom.com with an adjusted efficiency margin of plus-35.50, compared to plus-34.65 for Gonzaga. The next closest team is No. 3 Michigan at plus-28.15. The Bears also inched ahead for the No. 1 spot in the NET rankings, while Gonzaga continued to lead in T-Rank and Sagarin. Baylor is tops in ESPN’s BPI.

Let’s take a second and appreciate how rare this is. We’ve had teams enter the NCAA Tournament undefeated, most recently with 2015 Kentucky and 2014 Wichita State. But the last time we had two teams begin the bracket with perfect records was 1976, when both Rutgers and Indiana made the Final Four with a zero in the loss column. The Scarlet Knights lost in the national semifinal to Michigan, while the Hoosiers completed the last undefeated championship season in Division I.

Six times since 1984-85, the preseason No. 1 team in the Associated Press poll won the national title. But the top two teams in the preseason continuing their dominance all season long? That’s uncommon. North Carolina and Illinois separated themselves from the pack in 2004-05 and met in the title game, although they had a combined five losses before the Tar Heels won on that Monday night. North Carolina and Duke traded the No. 1 spot throughout much of the 1997-98 season, but neither made the championship game.

Baylor may not make it through the rest of the Big 12 season and the conference tournament unscathed; the Bears announced at least a two-game pause for COVID-19 issues on Thursday and who knows how that will affect them going forward. But they have won every game by at least eight points. Gonzaga has a 71 percent chance of finishing unbeaten, according to KenPom, and even that seems low. The only dangerous remaining regular-season game appears to be Monday’s meeting at BYU, which was moved up from its original season finale slot. BYU lost by 17 points in Spokane on Jan. 7 in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated.

If both do arrive in Indianapolis unbeaten, imagine how the drama will build as they make their way in the bracket toward one another. Potentially culminating on April 5, exactly four months after their scheduled game in the same city. It’s too perfect. Please be kind to us, basketball gods. You owe us one after last year.

As far as the bracket goes, these two teams have made things pretty easy when filling out the first half of the No. 1 seed line. But this week for the first time, Baylor jumps Gonzaga as the No. 1 overall seed. The Bears, as mentioned, have the edge in some key metrics and now own six Quad 1 wins, compared to Gonzaga’s five. Scott Drew’s team should continue burnishing its résumé if it continues beating up on the Big 12; Baylor has five potential Quad 1 games remaining, while the Zags have only the BYU opportunity. Mark Few can’t do anything about the West Coast Conference competition level, but if Baylor finishes the regular season with 11 Q1 wins compared to Gonzaga’s six, then it would be hard to justify anyone but the Bears as the overall No. 1 seed.

It shouldn’t matter that much either way. Sure, Baylor might have a slightly easier path by virtue of the S-Curve. But with no geography in play, the selection committee should certainly arrange the regions so Gonzaga and Baylor wouldn’t meet until the best possible moment.

Some other notes on the bracket, 37 days before Selection Sunday:

• The big news this week: We have a new No. 1 seed! Ohio State’s win at Iowa on Thursday night convinced us to move the Buckeyes up to the top line and bump Villanova to a No. 2 seed.

This might sound controversial, but the more we dig into the numbers, it shouldn’t be. Ohio State now has the most Quad 1 victories in the country with seven. That includes wins at Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa and Rutgers, which is about as strong a four-pack of roadies that anybody can claim. Villanova, on the other hand, just lost (convincingly) at St. John’s on Wednesday, and has just a 2-2 Quad 1 mark. Sure, the Wildcats’ COVID-19 pause had a lot to do with that, but this season isn’t about fairness. ’Nova still has that excellent win at Texas, but an earlier victory over Arizona State has not held up and it has yet to face Creighton or Xavier in Big East play.

Throw in the fact that just about every other contender for a 1 seed  — Alabama, Texas, Houston, Iowa, Tennessee and Virginia — has lost in the past week, with some of those losses (hello, East Carolina) looking particularly rough. So welcome aboard, Ohio State.

• Let’s try a quick blind résumé game.

Team A is No. 53 in Net, 0-1 in Quad 1 games and just 1-0 in Quad 2. It has a pair of Quad 3 losses, along with the No. 252 overall schedule and the No. 79 strength of record, according to ESPN’s BPI. Does that sound like an NCAA Tournament profile to you?

That’s the portfolio of Saint Louis, which was ranked for several weeks while on pause for COVID-19 issues. The Billikens are 0-2 since returning, including a humbling loss to La Salle on Wednesday. Earlier wins against LSU and NC State have lost plenty of luster. Not only is SLU not a tournament team right now, but there’s also no guarantee of an at-large for the Atlantic 10, which is surprising. We do have VCU in the First Four, and that worked out pretty well for the Rams once upon a time.

Team B is 57th in the NET, 0-5 in Quad 1 but a respectable 5-1 in Quad 2 with no bad losses. It ranks 43rd at KenPom.com and 34th in the BPI strength of record, with the No. 88 schedule.

You probably figured out that’s North Carolina. The Tar Heels have some decent numbers on the sheet, but that 0-5 is a killer and is keeping them out of our field. They could pick up an all-important Q1 victory Saturday in Durham against some other non-tournament team whose name we forget.

And, yes, that means our bracket does not include North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, Michigan State or Syracuse. CBS and Turner Sports must be thrilled.

• Still no word on region names, so we’ll continue with our whimsical Hoosier State monikers. The potential Final Four matchups would pit the Bird Region vs. the McGinnis Region and the Wooden Region vs. the Robertson Region based on our seed list, which you can find below. An asterisk denotes the projected conference autobid winner.

• Questions? Gripes? We have a special treat for you, as our esteemed Bubble Watcher Eamon Brennan and yours truly will participate in a live chat from noon to 1 p.m. ET on all things bracket- and bubble-related.

(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic)