J.J. Watt is a free agent, and the Browns were reportedly one of several teams to immediately inquire about Watt’s future football plans. That makes sense given that the Cleveland front office is in the process of finalizing a defense-focused offseason shopping list. For the first time in a long time, the Browns are in win-now mode and are specifically looking to upgrade their defensive front and pass rush in hopes of becoming a perennial playoff team.
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Watt, a five-time All-Pro, will be 32 next month. Because he was released, he’s immediately free to sign with a new team and doesn’t have to wait until the start of the new league year next month. Let’s dive a little deeper into his situation and his potential fit with the Browns.
Why is he on the market?
Over the last 12 months, the Texans have basically become the Browns circa 2009-19. They are headed for an uncertain future on multiple fronts. Watt had one year left on a contract that was going to pay him more than $17 million before he and the Texans announced a mutual parting of ways on Friday. The Texans probably could (and should) have traded him at last season’s trade deadline but did not.
Watt played in all 16 games in 2020 but has missed significant time due to injury in three of the last five seasons. Even if he’s no longer a dominant player, he has still been an impactful player who also carries an impeccable reputation as a teammate and all-around contributor. If the Browns view Watt as someone who can still play at a high level and fit in what is almost certainly going to be a remade defensive-line room, making a real push to sign Watt makes sense.
Remember, it’s not just about the Browns having a starting job open. It’s about Watt getting to choose his next destination and getting the right contract from a playoff contender. Understandably, his name jumps off the page — he’s a three-time AP Defensive Player of the Year — but potential suitors should be ready to pay accordingly. In free agency, it’s almost always about the money first.
Who’s already in place?
Myles Garrett is one of the league’s best pass rushers and is under contract for a long time. Sheldon Richardson has been really good in both of his seasons with the Browns and carries a $13.7 million cap hit on the final year of his current deal. The Browns drafted defensive tackle Jordan Elliott in the third round last year. Elliott had a quiet rookie season but is in the team’s plans.
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Beyond those players, the present and the future remain uncertain. Olivier Vernon was headed for free agency before suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon in the regular-season finale. Starting defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi is also a free agent, as is backup Vincent Taylor. Defensive tackle Andrew Billings opted out of the 2020 season; assuming he returns, he’ll be on a one-year deal. The Browns needed to upgrade the pass rush as a whole and the defensive-end rotation even before Vernon’s injury.
Watt or not (the poetry comes at no additional charge), the Browns are going to be active both in free agency and the draft in trying to upgrade their defensive line, especially given that they have about $25-30 million of available cap space. They’ll be close to the top 10 league-wide in terms of available money to spend but will be nowhere near where they’ve often been in recent years, and they will have major extension decisions looming on some of their best players.
How (and where) would Watt fit?
Watt has been a defensive end, generally in a 3-4 base defense, but he’s capable of playing multiple spots across the defensive front. He has also played standing up as a linebacker/edge rusher and has some experience playing inside. At 32, might a move toward becoming an inside player make sense? That’s for Watt and interested teams to decide.
Per Pro Football Focus, Watt played 702 of his 1,006 snaps in 2020 at the LEO position, essentially a left defensive end spot. He played 23 snaps at one of the defensive tackle spots. Those numbers are pretty consistent across Watt’s last three seasons — and they’re also close to Myles Garrett’s alignment numbers from last season in defensive coordinator Joe Woods’ defense as Garrett played about 55 percent of his snaps on the right side. From that, we can surmise that the Browns see Watt as a starting lineup replacement for Vernon and a player who could move inside in some passing-down packages.
So, Watt at one end spot in a base defense plus a plan to draft a young defensive end in the first or second round makes a lot of sense. Again, it could come down to what the Browns would be willing to pay Watt and how the Browns view other (younger) potential free-agent defensive ends. Any top pass rusher who actually makes it to the open market will command big money.
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If the Browns wanted to sign Watt this month and still go after a big-ticket defensive free agent, they could. They just might have to get a little creative with the contract structure. In Watt’s case, that could mean signing Watt to a multiyear deal with a bonus structure designed to further spread out a cap hit. Among the Browns’ options to create more cap space, should it become necessary, are to trade tight end David Njoku, restructure or eventually cut injured offensive lineman Chris Hubbard and potentially release veteran defensive end Adrian Clayborn, a move that would save $3 million. Njoku is set to make a little over $6 million on the fifth-year option of his rookie contract, while Hubbard carries a cap number of almost $5 million and had knee surgery in late December.
Is Watt still worth all the hoopla (and the money)?
We’re talking about a Hall of Famer — but one who has already been through 10 seasons in the trenches.
In 2020, Watt got an overall grade of 85.5 from Pro Football Focus and a 76.7 pass-rush grade. He got a 90.6 overall grade in 2018 and an 89.6 in 2019. Watt had five sacks last season, by far the fewest he has had when playing a full season.
The Browns did not crack the top 10 of The Athletic’s initial list of best fits for Watt but were listed in the “notable others” section. The Steelers, who employ both of Watt’s brothers, are No. 2 on that list but don’t currently have the salary-cap space to make any kind of real offer.
The Browns should be viewed as real AFC contenders — but one with some real defensive issues. If the Browns think Watt can still contribute over 17 (or more) games, an offer in the $6-8 million range annually makes sense. It always made sense that the Browns would make an initial call to inform Watt of their potential interest. But before any decision, they’ll have to gauge both Watt’s asking price and what they think the state of the pass-rush market will be by the time the open negotiating period begins next month.
(Photo: Jason Miller / Getty Images)
