Editor’s note: Second in an eight-part series
Last offseason, the Carolina Panthers made Christian McCaffrey the highest-paid running back with an extension that pays him $16 million per season. In September, Dalvin Cook signed a deal with the Minnesota Vikings worth $12.6 million per season. And Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon wasn’t far behind at $12 million per season.
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If those deals are any indication, teams still believe running backs matter, and even with the shrunken salary cap, the top ball carriers should find attractive deals on the open market.
Below is a look at the running backs who are scheduled to be unrestricted free agents, with their ages as of Week 1 in parentheses. Two metrics are used in the analysis:
• Success rate from TruMedia. The idea is a 2-yard run on fourth-and-1 should be considered a success while a 2-yard run on second-and-10 should not be, so yards per carry doesn’t tell the whole story. Success rate looks at the percentage of a back’s runs that were deemed successful, given the proper context.
• Rush percentage over expected (RPOE) from Next Gen Stats. Using tracking data, a model projects how many yards a back should pick up on a given carry, given the location, speed and direction of blockers and defenders. It can then look at how often the back gains more yards than expected.
Tier 1: Empty the wallet
These are players who can expect to find deals at the top of the market for their position.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (26)
If there’s one back in this class who can expect to get a big payday, it’s Jones. With 3,017 yards from scrimmage since the start of 2019 (ranking fifth league-wide among running backs), Jones has been one of the best all-around backs in recent years. He ranked 16th out of 55 qualifying backs in RPOE and 14th in success rate last season. Jones’ 829 receiving yards over the past two seasons rank sixth among all backs, and his 51 runs of 10-plus yards are tied for sixth. Cook’s five-year, $63 million extension with the Vikings could be in the neighborhood of what Jones is seeking, and it would be no surprise to see a team go as high as $15 million per year, which is what Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara got from the Cowboys and Saints, respectively.
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Tier 2: Looking for a starter?
These are players who are likely to be targeted as primary ball carriers by interested teams.
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks (26)
The advanced stats love Carson. He ranked second in RPOE and first in success rate. At his best, Carson is a physical, punishing back who can make plays even when the blocking is less than perfect. His 51 runs of 10-plus yards over the past two seasons are tied for sixth most. Carson hasn’t put up gaudy receiving numbers, but he’s caught 80.8 percent of his targets and averaged 7.7 yards per reception in his career. His seven fumbles in 2019 were a concern, but Carson fumbled just once last season. He missed four games last season and seven over the past three seasons with injuries. Carson’s next contract could land somewhere between the $8 million per year Melvin Gordon got last offseason and the $12 million per year Mixon received from the Bengals.
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (26)
He made the most of his opportunity with Tampa Bay, transforming into “Playoff Lenny” and performing well during the Bucs’ Super Bowl run. But teams would be wise to look at the larger sample with Fournette. He ranked 53rd in RPOE and 37th in success rate. Fournette has averaged 3.9 yards per carry in his career and has been competent, but unspectacular, as a pass catcher. Given the way the NFL works, it seems likely a team will look at his playoff success and first-round pedigree and convince itself Fournette can be a difference-maker. The two-year, $16 million deal the Broncos gave Gordon last year could be a good comp for Fournette.
Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals (27)
The Cardinals used the transition tag on Drake last offseason, which meant a one-year deal worth $8.5 million. He was not as effective as he’d been in 2019. Drake averaged 4 yards per carry on 239 attempts, and the advanced stats were not kind to him. He ranked 50th out of 55 qualifying backs in RPOE and 34th in success rate. One factor to keep in mind: Football Outsiders ranked Arizona as the third-worst run-blocking team. Drake had just 137 receiving yards, but that was probably more a function of the Cardinals’ offense than his skill set. In 2018, Drake showed strong receiving chops with 53 catches for 477 yards.
Tier 3: Sharing the workload
These are players who are likely to be viewed as options for teams employing a running-back-by-committee approach. Some could be primary ball carriers but are more likely to be complements. Others will fill very specific roles.
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James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers (26)
Conner had 936 yards from scrimmage last season. He ranked 40th in RPOE but was 22nd in success rate. The overall numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, given Football Outsiders ranked the Steelers as the worst run-blocking team last season. Conner has missed nine games over the past two seasons and has been unable to regain his Pro Bowl form from 2018. It’s possible a team will view him as a Tier 2 option capable of carrying the load, but Conner might be better suited as part of a rotation.
Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers (26)
Williams is one of the more intriguing names on this list. He was a complementary back in Green Bay who has averaged 8.3 carries per game through four seasons. Last year, Williams produced 741 yards from scrimmage. He ranked 25th in RPOE and fourth in success rate. Williams runs with a physical, punishing style and has missed just four games in four seasons. He’s been solid as a receiver — he has 122 catches for 961 yards — and has never fumbled. Williams is a steady, well-rounded back who possesses traits teams could find attractive in a complementary option. And it’s possible a team targets him as someone capable of filling a bigger role.
Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons (27)
It’s hard to believe he’ll be just 27 at the start of next season. It feels like Gurley has already had three careers. He played last year on a one-year, $5.5 million deal after the Rams released him. Gurley ran for nine touchdowns, making him fantasy-relevant, but his overall numbers were uninspiring. Gurley finished 49th in RPOE and 43rd in success rate. He averaged 3.5 yards per carry and had 25 catches for 164 yards. Gurley will likely get an opportunity to be part of a running back by committee, but there’s little reason to believe he can regain his form from 2017-18.
Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers (28)
Davis was a free agent in 2019 and signed a two-year, $6 million deal with the Panthers. With McCaffrey injured for much of this season, Davis set career highs with 165 carries and 642 rushing yards. He also caught 59 balls and produced 1,015 yards from scrimmage. Davis ranked 34th in RPOE and 31st in success rate. Davis broke a tackle on a league-high 14.3 percent of his touches, according to Sportradar, and 62 percent of Davis’ yards came after contact, which was the second-highest total. He’s a solid veteran who is probably best served to be a complementary back, but Davis has shown he can take on a bigger load for stretches.
Mark Ingram, Baltimore Ravens (31)
It’s tough to know where to place Ingram. He got phased out in Baltimore, carrying just 72 times for 299 yards, and was a healthy scratch by the end of the season. But in 2019, he was Baltimore’s leading rusher, with 1,018 yards and 10 touchdowns. Ingram is considered a great locker room guy and could be in the market for a one-year deal on a contending team.
Duke Johnson, Houston Texans (28)
He had 484 yards from scrimmage in 11 games for the Texans in 2020. Johnson has never had more than 410 rushing yards in a season, but he’s been valuable as a receiver with 307 catches since entering the league in 2015. Johnson has averaged a healthy 9.2 yards per reception in his career. He’ll be attractive to teams that are looking for a complementary, pass-catching back.
James White, New England Patriots (29)
He’s different from the other players in this tier. White had just 35 carries last season, and his value comes in the passing game. He had 49 receptions and has averaged 8.6 yards per reception during his career. White could be appealing for contending teams looking for a reliable veteran who can be a productive pass catcher. Perhaps a reunion with Tom Brady could make sense.
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Kyle Juszczyk, San Francisco 49ers (30)
He’s also different from the other players in this tier. For teams that employ a fullback, Juszczyk will be the top available option. He played 43 percent of the 49ers’ offensive snaps last season and had six touchdowns. Juszczyk has made the Pro Bowl in five consecutive seasons. When he signed with the 49ers as a free agent in 2017, Juszczyk got a deal worth $5.25 million per year. Only three fullbacks earned $3 million per year or more last season.
Tier 4: Remaining options
These are players who will likely be low-cost options and whose roles will vary depending on the team and the situation.
Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts (25)
When healthy, Mack probably belongs in Tier 2. But he ruptured an Achilles tendon in Week 1 of last season. From 2018 to 2019, Mack’s 1,999 rushing yards ranked 10th league-wide. Given the nature of Achilles injuries, Mack is unlikely to find a big payday on the open market. His best option could be to sign a one-year deal, prove his health and re-enter free agency next offseason.
Malcolm Brown, Los Angeles Rams (28)
He set career highs last season with 101 carries for 419 yards. Brown ranked seventh in success rate and 31st in RPOE. He was on the field for 472 offensive snaps — more than twice the number he’d played in any of his first five seasons. He most likely projects as a second or third back who is capable of offering a physical complement to a primary ball carrier.
Le’Veon Bell, Kansas City Chiefs (29)
Just two offseasons ago, he was a big-name free-agent signing by the Jets. Bell was released during the regular season and caught on with the Chiefs but didn’t have much of a role. He played just 17 percent of the snaps in nine regular-season games with Kansas City.
Wayne Gallman, New York Giants (26)
He’s not a big name, but Gallman played well for the Giants last season, totaling 682 rushing yards and averaging 4.6 yards per carry. He ranked third in RPOE but was 44th in success rate. Gallman has not done much as a receiver (he has 80 catches for 498 yards) in four seasons. No fan base is going to throw a parade if its team signs Gallman, but he projects as a competent, inexpensive complementary option.
Carlos Hyde, Seattle Seahawks (30)
He signed a one-year deal with the Seahawks last offseason, battled injuries and produced 449 yards from scrimmage. Hyde doesn’t offer much as a pass catcher but can be a physical complementary back as part of a rotation when healthy.
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Matt Breida, Miami Dolphins (25)
He failed to carve out a prominent role in Miami, playing just 14 percent of the snaps and totaling 350 yards from scrimmage. But Breida is still young and averaged 5 yards per carry in his first three seasons with the 49ers.
Brian Hill, Atlanta Falcons (25)
He had 664 yards from scrimmage and averaged 4.7 yards per carry last season, but the advanced numbers on Hill were ugly. He ranked 48th in RPOE and 53rd in success rate.
Rex Burkhead, New England Patriots (31)
A knee injury ended Burkhead’s season in late November. He averaged just 6.2 carries per game during his four-year stint with the Patriots. Given his age and injury, Burkhead is likely looking at a one-year deal.
Jerick McKinnon, San Francisco 49ers (29)
He signed a four-year, $30 million deal with the 49ers in 2018 but didn’t play a snap his first two seasons with them because of a knee injury. McKinnon stayed healthy last season, playing 34 percent of the snaps and producing 572 yards from scrimmage.
Devontae Booker, Las Vegas Raiders (29)
He played 22 percent of the Raiders’ offensive snaps last season, carrying 93 times for 423 yards and 4.5 yards per carry.
Tevin Coleman, San Francisco 49ers (28)
He battled a knee injury and had just 87 yards from scrimmage on 32 touches in eight games last season. But Coleman was productive in 2019, finishing with 724 yards from scrimmage. If he’s healthy, Coleman could still be a depth option.
T.J. Yeldon, Buffalo Bills (27)
He had a disappointing two-year run in Buffalo, producing 279 yards from scrimmage in nine games. But given Yeldon’s age, he should still get a chance to catch on somewhere as a depth option.
Tier 5: Special teams/fighting for a roster spot
These are players who will be looking to stick in the league, but a number of them could be without a roster spot in 2021.
- Frank Gore, New York Jets (38)
- Adrian Peterson, Detroit Lions (36)
- Dion Lewis, New York Giants (30)
- Chris Thompson, Jacksonville Jaguars (30)
- Alfred Morris, New York Giants (32)
- Samaje Perine, Cincinnati Bengals (25)
- Tyler Ervin, Green Bay Packers (27)
- LeSean McCoy, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (33)
- Corey Clement, Philadelphia Eagles (26)
- DeAndre Washington, Miami Dolphins (28)
- Ty Montgomery, New Orleans Saints (28)
- Ameer Abdullah, Minnesota Vikings (28)
- Theo Riddick, Las Vegas Raiders (30)
- D.J. Foster, Arizona Cardinals (27)
- Dwayne Washington, New Orleans Saints (27)
- Kenjon Barner, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (32)
- Lamar Miller, Washington Football Team (30)
- Taiwan Jones, Buffalo Bills (33)
- Senorise Perry, Tennessee Titans (29)
- T.J. Logan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (27)
- Anthony Sherman, Kansas City Chiefs (32)
- Alex Armah, Carolina Panthers (27)
- Michael Burton, New Orleans Saints (29)
- Nick Bellore, Seattle Seahawks (32)
This group includes some of the oldest backs in the league in Gore and Peterson. Gore has had a great career but has been one of the least-efficient backs over the past two seasons. He ranked 45th in RPOE and 54th in success rate last year. Peterson flashed at times, but his advanced stats were just as bad. He ranked 54th in RPOE and 52nd in success rate.
For teams in need of fullback help, Sherman, Burton, Armah and Bellore are options.
And finally, Lewis and Thompson are veterans capable of filling third-down roles as pass-catching backs.
(Photo of Jones: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)
