The Whiparound has been on hiatus for the offseason, but with free agency fast approaching, it’s time to get the band back together. Our AFC North writers discuss how free agency might play out for the teams in the division.
Who is the one free agent the team you cover can’t afford to let get away?
Mark Kaboly (Steelers): Since there are 19 unrestricted free agents and a whole bunch of money still needs to be found between now and the new league year just to get salary cap compliant, the Steelers can’t look at it that way. Sure, they would love to keep Bud Dupree and JuJu Smith-Schuster, but that’s just not financially responsible during this pandemic-reduced salary cap year. They have to be more practical in terms of money and worth. Zach Banner is coming off ACL surgery in September after winning the starting right tackle job out of camp. With the Steelers offensive line in transition with Maurkice Pouncey retiring and Alejandro Villanueva pricing himself out of their plans, Banner provides a cheap option with a high upside on a one-year, prove-it deal. Banner wanting to return under those circumstances makes the extension all but done, but quite necessary. Some of the others are under the either/or category. If Banner doesn’t sign, Matt Feiler needs to be a priority. If Joe Haden is a cap casualty, Cam Sutton needs to be signed. And of course, exclusive rights free agents Robert Spillane and J.C. Hassenauer are locks to return pending a tender.
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Jeff Zrebiec (Ravens): I’m not sure the Ravens have that guy. They’ll certainly miss Matthew Judon, but that doesn’t mean it would be wise, given their cap situation, to pay him at the top of the edge rusher market. Moving on from both Judon and Yannick Ngakoue would make outside linebacker arguably the team’s biggest need. However, if they don’t think Ngakoue was a great fit — and them barely using him in the playoffs suggests that — it doesn’t make sense to sign him to a big contract. The Ravens probably need to re-sign one or two of their five pending free agent outside linebackers, a group that also includes Tyus Bowser, Pernell McPhee and Jihad Ward, but I wouldn’t consider any one of them independently as a must re-sign. If I had to make a case for anyone, it would probably be defensive end Derek Wolfe, just because his departure would add defensive line depth to a growing list of team needs.
Zac Jackson (Browns): I don’t think this exact situation applies to the Browns. They’re not sitting on a crazy amount of cap space as they’ve been in most recent years, but they’re still in position to spend outside more than they’re in position to scramble to keep their own guys. With defensive end Olivier Vernon’s injury delivering a disappointing answer to his free agency question, the answer is probably wide receiver Rashard Higgins. Last year, there was no outside market for Higgins. This year, he’s likely to have options but it’s hard to imagine the Browns not wanting him back. Given Higgins’ chemistry with Baker Mayfield, it’s harder to imagine Higgins finding a better spot.
Jay Morrison (Bengals): The Bengals finished last in the league in sacks (17) and pressures (106) in 2020, and defensive end Carl Lawson had 32 percent of the sacks (5.5) and 41 percent of the pressures (43), according to Sportradar. Lawson is excited to test his value on the open market after staying healthy and playing a full 16-game season after logging just 19 games combined in 2018-19, but the Bengals cannot let that happen. It’s doubtful they can offer him enough in a long-term deal to quell his excitement about shopping his wares, but the franchise tag is an option. And if the Bengals were willing to tag an aging A.J. Green at $18 million last year, then giving Lawson $15.9 million while he’s in his prime shouldn’t require much debate. Lawson may not like it, but he’s not the type to pout and grouse to the point of becoming a distraction.
As concisely as you can, evaluate your respective team’s salary-cap situation, based on cap projections between $180-$185 million with the NFL setting the floor at $180 million.
Kaboly: Hahahahaha. That’s as concise as I can be. The Steelers always spend to the cap and a lot of times over the cap. They get around it by pushing money down the road with restructures. It’s been a practice they’ve used for years with many criticizing it, but it never got to a point where it affected what they wanted to do because of the yearly increases in the salary cap. A pandemic changed all that and instead of a projected cap of around $215 million, at best, it’s going to come in $30 million less than that. I don’t have to say that is not good for the Steelers, but it doesn’t appear to be a death sentence now as it was months ago. Vance McDonald and Maurkice Pouncey retired, the Steelers have a $5 million rollover from last year and a potential $10 million increase in the first protected $175 million cap floor has made it more palatable. There is still work to be done with Ben Roethlisberger’s contract, a couple of restructures and potentially a cap casualty or two, but it will allow them to sign a couple of their own and they may be able to hit the bargain bin with an outside free agent or two. It’s not great by any means, but it looks a hell of a lot better than it did six months ago.
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Zrebiec: It’s all relative for the Ravens, who are in decent salary-cap shape compared to the rest of the league, but they still won’t have a lot of money to spend. Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta estimated recently that the Ravens should have just under $20 million of space to work with and they’ll have a lot to do with that money. They’ll probably restructure a few contracts to get more and they may have to move on from a veteran or two to create space. But overall, the Ravens will have to be judicious and creative to fill their major offseason needs. That’s nothing new for them. They annually work in the offseason with moderate cap space and they never are overly aggressive in free agency anyway. They should have enough room, though, to re-sign a few of their own and make one or two outside free agent expenditures.
Jackson: The Browns are going to be in the $25 million to $30 million range when it comes to free space. That means they’ll have enough to at least chase any big-ticket defensive free agents and also to pursue trades with teams who find themselves in a cap crunch. The Browns have ways to create even more space if necessary, but the most logical plan for spending this offseason starts with defensive additions and later shifts to potential extensions for Nick Chubb, Denzel Ward and Baker Mayfield.
Morrison: I wish I could answer with a GIF, because it would be one from Supermarket Sweep. OK, maybe raiding the shelves for the most expensive items you can find is a bit of a stretch, but you get the idea. The Bengals have the sixth-most cap space available, and their budget will be expanding by another $15 million (coincidentally the cost of tagging Lawson) when they terminate the contracts of defensive tackle Geno Atkins ($9.5 million savings) and right tackle Bobby Hart ($5.8 million). We’re not going to see them approach the franchise-record total of $126 million they spent in free agency last year, but they have more than enough available cash to finally get serious about fixing the offensive line and protecting the face of the franchise. And they’ll still have enough left over to fill some smaller holes while other teams are pinching pennies and ripping up contracts.
It’s not hard to find a list of offseason needs for each NFL team. Just looking at your respective team, is there a need that is either being exaggerated or downplayed?
Kaboly: For the most part, those lists are spot on. The Steelers need help at offensive line, running back and at tight end with not much being said about depth at the inside and outside linebacker spots. If there was one point that I do think has been hyped up way too much on both the national and local level is that Ben Roethlisberger is completely shot. Despite a span of about 10 bad quarters that was greatly helped out by a young receiver group that dropped a host of passes and a yearlong fight to run the ball, Roethlisberger had as good of a season as you could’ve expected from a 38-year-old coming off a major elbow injury and 12 months of inactivity. If he played the meaningless finale, he would’ve thrown for 4,000 yards and 35 touchdowns in helping his team likely go 13-3 during the regular season. Sure, his deep ball wasn’t very good and his mobility may have been worse, but to suggest that he, all of a sudden, can’t play the game again is ludicrous. Roethlisberger isn’t a quarterback who can consistently win his team games by himself. He needs help from a running game and a young receiver crew that should’ve matured from a year ago. He can still single-handedly win you a handful of games, but not consistently. There are many quarterbacks in the league you can say that about.
Zrebiec: The Ravens’ needs at wide receiver, offensive line and outside linebacker are well-documented and legitimate. There’s not been a ton of talk about how much they could use a playmaking safety, but I think the team recognizes that piece could take their defense to another level. Chuck Clark and DeShon Elliott were a solid safety duo in 2020 and they’re both still under contract. Yet, both of them struggle at times in coverage and haven’t shown a consistent ability to create turnovers or get their hands on the football. The addition of a rangy, ball-hawking safety would give defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale more options. Plus, the Ravens have no depth behind Clark and Elliott and Elliott is a free agent next year, so to me, acquiring another safety is closer to a necessity than a luxury.
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Jackson: Though pass rush jumps off the page, the Browns have needs across the defense. Injuries and COVID-19 circumstances really exposed their lack of depth last year, and though there’s hope that young defensive backs Greedy Williams and Grant Delpit will be back at full speed in 2021, both players still have plenty to prove. Between free agency and the draft, help at every level of the defense is coming.
Morrison: It would be impossible to exaggerate the Bengals’ needs on the offensive line. As far as a position that’s being downplayed, I would say cornerback. With so much focus on the offensive and defensive lines, and with two starting-caliber corners and maybe the best safety tandem in the division under contract, the secondary gets overlooked as an area of need. But we have yet to see Trae Waynes take a snap in stripes, and there are always going to be durability concerns with Darius Phillips. Maybe the Bengals surprise us and answer Question 1 with cornerback William Jackson, their 2016 first-round pick, instead of Lawson. But if they don’t, they better find at least one starting-caliber corner, ideally a slot guy, in free agency because the rest of the group is public restroom tissue-thin.
If money/cap space wasn’t an issue, who is the one unrestricted free agent from another AFC North organization that the team you cover should target?
Kaboly: Well, it is an issue. It’s like asking for a Cadillac for Christmas when you make $10 an hour working part-time during college. It’s just not practical. But I’ll play along for the betterment of this exercise and I do believe this is the question I suggested. I’m just going to eliminate Judon and Lawson because I don’t want to play with Steelers fans’ emotions. I’m going to be more practical. Players like Baltimore center Matt Skura and Cincinnati cornerback William Jackson would fit in nicely with the Steelers, but I’m going to head up the turnpike to Cleveland and take defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi. Could you imagine a defensive line of Cam Heyward, Stephon Tuitt and Ogunjobi? Ogunjobi has played some nose tackle and would dominate there and then be able to kick out to tackle in their sub-packages. It would be the best defensive line in the league. Yeah, I know, not very sexy, but we in Pittsburgh choose tough guys over pretty boys every day of the week.
Zrebiec: You could make a case for a couple of guys, but I’ll say Dupree, assuming he’s making progress in his ACL recovery and is on track to be ready for the season. Dupree had 11.5 sacks in 2019 and he was on pace for another double-digit sack season with eight in 11 games last year before his season-ending injury. The Ravens need a disruptive performer on the edge and Dupree really took his game to another level the past two years. I considered Smith-Schuster too, but give me the edge rusher.
Jackson: Probably Ngakoue. The Browns talked trade with the Jaguars last year and envisioned Ngakoue as an effective and productive player who’d most often play on the edge opposite Myles Garrett. I don’t know where Ngakoue stands with the Ravens or what his asking price will be, but I’d guess that the Browns will inquire if he hits the market. I’m going to fudge the rules here and list another: I’m guessing the Browns will make a run at the Steelers’ Sutton.
Morrison: Ngakoue. He’s still young and has a proven track record of not only getting to the quarterback but finishing with sacks, which is a need nearing the desperation level for the Bengals. Ngakoue has 45.5 sacks over the last four seasons. Do you know who the last Bengals player was to record that many sacks in a four-year span? No, you don’t. Because he doesn’t exist (Atkins had 39 from 2015-18). In fact, there are only three players in Bengals history with that many sacks for their entire career.
Make one prediction for what the team you cover will or won’t do in free agency — the spicier, the better.
Kaboly: I might need some help here, but would hoping the Bengals cut B.J. Finney so the Steelers can sign him to play center be considered spicy? What about signing 32-year-old tackle Kelvin Beachum? Special teams ace and safety Deon Bush? Shall I continue? I guess the spiciest thing the Steelers can do is hold onto their money, so they will be able to cobble up enough cap space to sign T.J. Watt to a five-year, $125 million extension come September. That’s all I got for you on this one. I truly believe this free agency cycle is going to be comparable to 2012 when their only street free agent was tight end Leonard Pope, who caught three passes for nine yards in 16 games.
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Zrebiec: The Ravens will make one large free-agent purchase and it will be an interior offensive lineman. I don’t know whether it will be Packers center Corey Linsley, Falcons center Alex Mack, Patriots guard Joe Thuney or Washington guard Brandon Scherff. An exact name would obviously make the prediction spicier. It just seems like team officials are prioritizing solidifying the offensive line this offseason and with at least two holes in that starting group (three if they go ahead and trade right tackle Orlando Brown Jr.), it would be way too risky to wait for the draft to address the offensive line.
Jackson: Hard to throw on too much spice while the Browns are playing the waiting game with J.J. Watt. I’d like to say they sign Watt and still find a way to land a top-tier defensive free agent in his mid-20s, but as of this writing I don’t think Watt has made any decisions. My pretty standard prediction all along has been that the Browns use their cap space, their extra draft picks and their go-for-it status to acquire at least one proven defensive player via trade. I’m not going to say the draft is meaningless, but the Browns have finally escaped their long rebuild and are looking to win in the next two years.
Morrison: You want spicy or accuracy? Because never the twain shall me when it comes to the Bengals. Let’s go with this: The Bengals will sign their Week 1 starters at right tackle and right guard before the end of the first weekend of free agency. Only twice since 2012 have the Bengals signed a free-agent offensive lineman who has ended up being an opening-day starter (Xavier Su’a-Filo last year and John Miller in 2019). Nabbing two in a five-day span would have to land somewhere on the Scoville scale. And depending on who those linemen are, they could be in the cayenne to habanero range.
(Top photo of Carl Lawson: Ian Johnson / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)