Three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt is signing with the Arizona Cardinals on a two-year, $31 million deal with $23 million guaranteed. Watt and the Texans mutually agreed to part ways last month after Watt spent 10 seasons in Houston.
How much does his addition help the Cardinals? How much does his decision hurt other teams? And where does Arizona now sit in the strong NFC West?
Advertisement
The Athletic’s Lindsay Jones, Amy Trask, Aaron Reiss and Doug Haller debate these questions and more from a signing that could have big implications in the 2021 NFL season and beyond.
Why did Watt choose the Cardinals?
Jones: You can’t look at the money on Watt’s two-year deal and believe it isn’t a factor, but the Cardinals must have made an intriguing football pitch, too. In Arizona, Watt will be paired with edge rusher Chandler Jones, who, when healthy, is one of the NFL’s most dominant pass rushers, and will join a defense that has some intriguing playmakers, such as safety Budda Baker and second-year linebacker Isaiah Simmons. Could Watt’s arrival influence cornerback Patrick Peterson, a pending free agent, to re-sign in Arizona?
Trask: On a funny note (perhaps “funny not funny” to Texans fans), Deandre Hopkins is clearly a terrific recruiter.
On a more serious note, unless Watt tells us why he chose Arizona, we can, of course, only speculate as to the reasons for his decision. My speculation includes the fact that Arizona demonstrated a strong pass rush in 2020 (tied for fourth in the league with 48 sacks) and as such, Watt should not be double-teamed by opposing offenses. Were he to go to a team with a poor pass rush, it is more likely he would be double-teamed. I don’t know if that factored into his analysis or decision, but I know it would were I in his position or were I advising him.
Reiss: Watt said he wanted to finish his career chasing a Super Bowl. Perhaps he sees something in the Cardinals that most of us don’t. Arizona, which went 8-8 last season, isn’t rebuilding like the Texans, but it also isn’t an obvious championship contender. Cardinals defensive coordinator Vance Joseph was the Texans’ defensive backs coach during the first three years of Watt’s career, and evidently, the five-time All-Pro liked him enough to want to work with him again. I’m guessing Hopkins, his former Texans teammate, made a strong sales pitch, too.
Advertisement
Haller: Veterans like Watt don’t sign with organizations unless they think they can win. The Cardinals last season did not make the playoffs, but they’re headed in the right direction. Under second-year coach Kliff Kingsbury, they made a three-win leap, and although they fizzled in the final weeks, they’re not far from NFC contention. Watt isn’t the missing piece, but he’s a valuable one.
What are the Cardinals getting in Watt, who will be 32 when the season starts?
Reiss: Watt is a high-risk, high-reward signing. He’s played all 16 games just twice in the past five years, and in the others, he failed to play in more than eight games. When healthy, though, Watt can still be a game-wrecker. Don’t be fooled by his 2020 stats (five sacks, 17 QB hits), which were pedestrian by his standards. Watt was playing on one of the league’s worst defenses, with little talent surrounding him. As a result, he was the NFL’s most double-teamed edge rusher. He should benefit from lining up opposite Jones, a fellow All-Pro. I wouldn’t be surprised if Watt has another 10-plus-sack season — assuming he can stay healthy.
Jones: It would be unrealistic to expect peak Watt, but I think we should expect significant production from a motivated player, especially when he doesn’t have to be his team’s primary pass rusher. If he’s able to stay healthy, I think it would be fair to expect Watt’s sack numbers to climb, maybe into the low teens?
Trask: The difficulty in answering this is projecting Watt’s health. If healthy, he still can be a dominant player, particularly playing for a team on which he shouldn’t be double-teamed by opposing offenses. That said, he’s missed 32 games over the past five seasons, and that makes it hard to project how healthy he will stay over the course of a season.
Haller: His sack numbers and awards (three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year!) will get the most attention, but Arizona also is getting a great locker-room and community presence. Larry Fitzgerald’s future is discussed nearly every day here on local sports talk radio. Fitzgerald has a bond with the Valley of the Sun that won’t be replaced, but someone like Watt could make Fitzgerald’s retirement — should he go in that direction — sting a little less.
Yes or no: With Watt, the Cardinals now are favorites to win the NFC West?
Haller: Not yet. While pairing a healthy Watts with a healthy Jones is fascinating, the Cardinals still have a lot to sort out. Even if they re-sign Peterson, they need immediate help at corner. Kyler Murray might be a future star, but he’s not there yet. Arizona also needs a solid No. 2 receiver behind Hopkins.
Advertisement
Jones: No. When the 2020 season started, I thought the NFC West was the most difficult division to pick, and adding Watt in 2021 only makes it more so. I’m not sure if he’s the one player who can take the Cardinals from 8-8 to 11-5, but I like his chances to help the Cardinals win the type of weird, close games that division always produces.
Trask: Whoa there, let’s slow our roll on this one. I’m being a bit silly again because, of course, everyone can roll as fast as they wish. That said, I am not yet ready to declare anything close to a favorite as I think the division is too strong as a whole to make that prediction. I think this is an intriguing division and can’t wait to watch this unfold.
Reiss: For now, I like the Rams the most, but it’ll be a tight division. It all will come down to the quarterback situations for every team. Will Matthew Stafford prove worth the gamble for the Rams? Can San Francisco upgrade from Jimmy Garoppolo? Do the Seahawks rectify things with Russell Wilson? And what sort of jump can Murray make in Year 3?
Which team is hurt the most by Watt’s decision?
Jones: From a football perspective, I wanted to see Watt end up in Buffalo. So I think it hurts rising AFC teams like the Bills and Browns. But I also think this hurts the Seahawks, who could have (1) used a player like Watt and (2) still face major questions about how to protect Wilson (most notably, those questions are coming from Wilson himself).
Trask: If Watt remains healthy, he will make Arizona stronger, and this is to the detriment of the other teams in the NFC West.
Reiss: The Seahawks. Other teams linked to Watt — Buffalo, Cleveland, Green Bay — will be contenders without him. Seattle’s offensive line has been a point of tension between Wilson and the team, and now it’ll be tested in a major way by the combo of Watt and Jones.
Is $23 million guaranteed too much?
Trask: My experience in the league and my training as a lawyer are such that I am loath to weigh in on contractual terms unless and until I see the contract in question. There are many reasons for my reluctance to do so, one of which is that even when contracts include injury guarantees, prior injuries and conditions stemming from or related thereto are excluded. I would imagine that even if Watt’s contract includes guarantees for skill and injury, those exclusions (carve-outs) exist. If they do not, his team did a tremendous job negotiating this deal for him.
Advertisement
Jones: If he helps turn the Cardinals into the NFC West champions, no. But my initial reaction in our internal Slack channel (as my colleagues here can confirm) was “that’s a lot of money,” both the guaranteed amount and the average salary. It might affect the Cardinals’ ability to bring back other free agents, such as Peterson and outside linebacker Haason Reddick.
Reiss: It’s a richer deal than I anticipated for Watt, given his age and injury history, but it’s the sort of bold move teams with quarterbacks on rookie contracts should make.
(Top photo: Tim Warner / Getty Images)