J.J. Watt’s two-plus weeks of free agency came to an end Monday when the former NFL Defensive Player of the Year tweeted a picture of himself lifting weights in an Arizona Cardinals t-shirt. It was a fitting end to a process that seemed to play out through a string of social media posts. In the end, the Buffalo Bills were often mentioned as in the mix but didn’t end up landing the star defensive lineman.
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Watt went to the highest bidder. He didn’t have the chance to do a traditional free agency tour, but it wasn’t necessary. Watt and his camp had done their homework on the various opportunities. They knew what the Bills had to offer in terms of culture, the roster and cap space. He knew he would have a chance to play for a Super Bowl contender under a coach who would know how to maximize his ability to extend his career with a heavy rotation on the defensive line.
He also knew the Bills made an offer and didn’t budge. They set their price internally, presented that to Watt and didn’t waver. By last week, Watt had offers in the neighborhood of $20 million guaranteed. The Bills didn’t offer that much and weren’t compelled to do so when they weren’t the highest offer. Those offers helped Watt get an even better contract from the Cardinals that is reportedly worth $23 million guaranteed and $31 million total over two years. That was a price the Bills weren’t going to to touch.
Part of this was a salary cap issue for the Bills. They are tight up against the cap and can’t afford to take a multi-year risk on an injury-prone and declining player. Two years ago when the Bills had more cap flexibility and Watt was still playing at the level of a defensive player of the year, the Bills may have gotten this done. Now the Bills can take fewer swings and have to be selective about what they do. Even so, there are questions about whether Watt is worth the contract he got.
Watt isn’t quite what he once was. Some in the NFL believe if another player who played at Watt’s level in 2020 were available, the buzz wouldn’t have been the same. In 2018, Watt had 16 sacks and seven forced fumbles. In 2019 and 2020, Watt combined for nine sacks and three forced fumbles. Watt’s name recognition drove the frenzy. The star defensive end played into that, too. His camp made it known through various channels he wanted to play for a contender. But that wasn’t the only factor in his recruitment.
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According to Ed Werder of ESPN, quarterback play, supporting cast and money were among Watt’s priorities when considering teams. The Bills checked all of those boxes but didn’t come particularly close to the best financial offer. That’s not to say winning isn’t a priority for Watt. The Cardinals have an exciting young quarterback in Kyler Murray, pieces in the front seven who could help Watt flourish and a familiar coach in defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, who was in Houston with Watt from 2011 to 2013.
The Cardinals aren’t as much of a threat to win the Super Bowl in 2021 as the Bills are. According to BetMGM, the Bills have 12-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, while the Cardinals are 40-1. Arizona could definitely compete in the next two seasons, so it’s not as if Watt chose a bottom feeder, but he did pick the best offer on the table. No team was offering what the Cardinals did in terms of guaranteed money. The Bills weren’t close to that ballpark. Watt could have taken a below-market deal to chase a ring, but instead he got his worth and will play for a team that should be competitive in 2021. It’s not a bad situation for Watt, and he helped out the rest of the NFL veterans by not taking less than he is worth and throwing the market out of whack.
As for the Bills, they won’t lose too much sleep over Watt choosing to go elsewhere. As Brandon Beane has said often since his arrival, he looks into everything. That’s not just lip service. This particular inquiry got farther along than others. The Bills had legitimate interest but only at their price. As the process dragged on, it became clear Watt was going to command and get a higher number than the Bills were comfortable paying. Even if the salary cap comes in at a higher number than expected, the Bills weren’t wavering from the price they set. That’s the way Beane has done business since he arrived.
Knowing him, this won’t be the Bills’ last swing in free agency, either. They’ll have to make some roster moves to get a more comfortable salary cap situation, but by pursuing Watt, the Bills showed they’re in the market for impact defensive linemen. They also showed that a contract worth $10 million per season isn’t going to prohibit them from pursuing a player despite their cap situation.
The Bills didn’t land Watt, but Beane will have them in the mix for other noteworthy veterans. He and Sean McDermott weren’t satisfied with the way their team looked against the Chiefs. Previous offseasons have shown them to be self aware decision makers capable of identifying and fixing the flaws of their team. Watt wasn’t their only chance to upgrade this offseason. He was just the first. The rest will likely be more affordable.
