After years spent at McKeen’s Hockey and Future Considerations, my NHL draft ranking is now being published exclusively at The Athletic. At the end of October, I released my preliminary top-62 and promised to provide a midseason top-62 in February as well as a final top-100 at the end of May.
By publishing the ranking in three instalments, each allows for the players to undergo serious progression, providing ample time for repeated in-person and on-video viewings.
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As always, despite seeking the opinions of other scouts and coaches for the evaluations of many of these players, the rankings represent strictly my own opinions of those listed (and those not).
Below is a look at each of the top-31, followed by the full top-62.
1. Rasmus Dahlin – D, Frolunda
You very rarely find a defenceman who has the talent to go first overall these days. Aaron Ekblad was the exception to the rule, and Dahlin is further along than the exceptional-status OHLer was at this stage. Dahlin has size, skating ability (laterally and north-south), three-zone vision, handles the puck at an elite level, and a big wrist shot that he can cleanly beat goalies with from distance. He is also starting to become a better defender, though you can’t tell by the way he has been scratched/benched by Team Sweden at the Olympics. He’s got No. 1 upside and should make the jump to the NHL fairly seamlessly with the right partner.
2. Andrei Svechnikov – RW, Barrie Colts
Among scouts, there has been talk of Filip Zadina moving into the No. 2 slot in this draft. Some of it, I think, is driven by recency bias after Zadina outplayed Svechnikov at the top prospects game. As good as Zadina is, I still think Svechnikov is the clear-cut second-best prospect in this class. No forward in 2018 can score in as many ways as Svechnikov. He doesn’t need to beat defenders one-on-one to make an impact, and most often scores by getting into open space and using his shot, or by driving to the net with his size and puck control out wide. In a league with pure scorers like Adam Mascherin, Dmitry Sokolov, Owen Tippett, Boris Katchouk, and others, Svechnikov is already clearly the most dangerous shooter — and his 30 goals in 32 games frankly don’t make it very close. On his current 22-point, 11-game streak, he has posted 15 goals and 10 multi-point efforts.
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3. Filip Zadina – LW, Halifax Mooseheads
Zadina is shiftier than Svechnikov as a skater and handler. You notice him more when he’s on the ice because he thrives as the primary option on his line. And he keeps getting better. That can’t be understated. At this stage in the season, it’s still important to continue to see players improve. This is particularly important for players who may become top-five picks, because they tend to progress so quickly that they become legitimate NHL options in their first training camp. Some players can mask stagnant progression through a production bump from a coach that gives them more ice-time. Zadina has become one the QMJHL’s most electric players in his own right.
4. Quinn Hughes – D, University of Michigan
It’s no secret that this is a defence-heavy draft. Nine of my top-17 prospects in 2018 are defencemen. They’re all legitimate prospects. That Hughes is the second-ranked defenceman in this class should tell you a lot about him, especially considering he’s 5-foot-10. He has been dominant wherever he has played and stepped into Michigan and immediately became the team’s highest-scoring defenceman. He sits third among under-19 NCAA defencemen in scoring behind Max Gildon (Panthers) and Ian Mitchell (Blackhawks), but what has impressed me most about Hughes’ adjustment this year is how effective he has been as a man-on-man defender against bigger, more athletic players.
5. Adam Boqvist – D, Brynas IF/Almtuna IS
It has been a bit of a whirlwind season for Boqvist. He has now played at all three major levels in Sweden and hasn’t been as dynamic as you’d expect on his loan to Almtuna in Allsvenskan. I think some scouting circles tend to overweight international performances, and Boqvist was outstanding at under-18s, but he’s so gifted as an offensive threat from the backend, particularly as a scorer and skater, that I don’t question that his ability will translate. He’s going to take a little bit longer than some of the other defencemen near the top of the draft, but he’ll get there.
6. Ryan Merkley – D, Guelph Storm
There are legitimate concerns, expressed by his own team and others, about Merkley’s attitude, his commitment to defence, and the way he treats his teammates. But he’s also the most dynamic creator not named Dahlin and when you’re as talented as he is, you can grow up and figure the rest out — at least in most cases. Merkley’s the kind of player who will be on some teams’ no-draft list and he could fall as a result, but he has taken steps in several areas of late and is just too talented to pass up. If he can get even a little bit stronger, he has the skills to be a really special offensive threat.
7. Evan Bouchard – D, London Knights
Bouchard is an enigma of sorts in this class. In a group of defencemen who excel as flashy handlers, Bouchard is the most productive of the bunch without looking like it. The strength of Bouchard’s game is in the details. He’s the best player on an uncharacteristically weak London team and he has actually picked up his game after the Knights dealt their core forwards. He’s also an intelligent, calculated defender who can still make plays on pure instinct when he’s under pressure. In short order, he has become increasingly active in the high slot, as evidenced by his astounding 20 goals in 54 games. I liked him at the start of the year, and that was evidenced in a relatively-speaking high ranking at the time. But he has just continued to impress me with every live viewing, including the quietest four-assist night you’ll ever see at the top prospects game.
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8. Oliver Wahlstrom – C/RW, USDP
In the words of my esteemed colleague Justin Bourne: “He shoots the puck into the net.” After Svechnikov, Wahlstrom is the best pure goal scorer in the class. He’s also the player who has come the furthest in the last year and a half. There are very few discernible traits to his game that leave me to question whether he’s going to torch NCAA hockey at a very young age. He could probably stand to lose a little bit of weight in order to pick up an extra half step, but he sees the ice well and finishes off plays with ease. He was magic at 5 Nations (U18) last week too, tying for the tournament lead in points with Svechnikov.
9. Brady Tkachuk – C/LW, Boston University
Tkachuk hasn’t been a dominant offensive threat at BU as a freshman, but he has excelled above his age group at just about every other level and was fantastic at the world juniors. Some coaches and scouts have told me he’s meaner (if that’s even possible) than his older brother Matthew. Others think he’s a better skater. They’re right. And Matthew doesn’t disagree.
“He’s a big guy, he’s really good around the net. He’s a lot bigger than me, he’s a lot faster than me, he’s kind of that dual threat where he can beat you with speed and power and quick tight plays as well and good playmaking,” Matthew told me of Brady in December.
10. Joe Veleno – C, Drummondville Voltigeurs
A centre? Gasp! In a class devoid of natural playmakers down the middle, Veleno is a bright light. He has been phenomenal since his trade from Saint John to Drummondville and we’re again seeing the dominant, dynamic skater who can blow by defenders with speed to create offence that many hoped he’d become in the QMJHL after playing further down the depth chart post-exceptional status nod with a strong Sea Dogs team pre-2017.
11. Jesperi Kotkaniemi – C/LW, Assat
Scott Wheeler’s 2018 Sneaky-Good Potential Future NHL Star Award™ recipient.*
Previous winners: Eeli Tolvanen (2017), Vitalii Abramov (2016), Daniel Sprong (2015), Kasperi Kapanen (2014), Oliver Bjorkstrand (2013).
*No actual prize.
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12. Noah Dobson – D, Acadie-Bathurst Titans
Dobson is another player, like Bouchard, who just continues to impress me with every subsequent viewing. He’s the best player on his team and, at 6-foot-3, an excellent skater who is just now beginning to tap into the ceiling that allowed him to go sixth overall in the 2016 QMJHL draft. He’s also a great defender for his age, would bodes well for an earlier progression to the pro game.
13. Ty Smith – D, Spokane
Smith is a player who I fell in love with last year but hasn’t taken the kinds of leaps I expected him to take in the last couple of months. He’s one of the better playmaking defencemen in a class full of scoring D, and he has become a go-to defender as the year has gone on despite his 5-foot-10 frame, but he has also been helped by playing on a team that offers him a lot of weapons. Still, I like his blend of poised handling and assertive up-ice vision.
14. Isac Lundestrom – C/LW, Lulea HF
Lundestrom is quietly having a really good season in the SHL. He trails only Dahlin in points by under-19 players, besting Lukas Elvenes (Golden Knights), Jonas Rondbjerg (Golden Knights), Fabian Zetterlund (Devils) and others. He doesn’t have high-end tools but he’s skilled enough in enough areas to justify real second-line hopes on the back of his versatility. And he’s excellent defensively, in large part because he’s a plus-skater.
15. Joel Farabee – LW, USDP
After an excellent season domestically and internationally last year, many expected Farabee to become the national program’s go-to threat. Instead, he has rode shotgun to Wahlstrom for decent stretches of this season. Still, he’s a do-everything player who can create offensively as a passer and crafty shooter. Once he gets a little bit stronger, I expect him to become a star at Boston University. He’s most dangerous when he’s out-thinking the opposition and getting himself into space, or finding his teammates in it.
16. Bode Wilde – D, USDP
Wilde rides the highs and lows of games but when he’s on it’s a spectacle. At 6-foot-3 and nearly 200 pounds, he’s on the bigger side of the high-end defencemen in this draft and he’s got a heavy shot and an effortless stride for a big man. He’s also becoming a better man-on-man defender, off the rush and along the wall, and does a decent job playing a tight gap and pivoting when he needs to recover. He’ll need some time at Michigan to take his game to the next level but I think he has it in him.
17. Calen Addison – D, Lethbridge Hurricanes
Another smaller, high-skill, up-tempo defenceman, Addison has the tools of some of the other top-flight defenders in this class but he isn’t yet a strong defender. His biggest strength is skating — Addison can separate himself with his feet when forecheckers get caught behind him and it gives him unique ability to create entries through the neutral zone and set up the play. He’s more of a project than some of the other options in the teens, but he’s got the necessary skill to continue to blossom.
18. Akil Thomas – C, Niagara IceDogs
Thomas is a fantastic, well-rounded player whose areas of potential improvement are within his own control. He’s an athletic skater who needs to add some muscle and a playmaker with a decent release who could benefit from that muscle — and from using it more. What I like most about Thomas is his ability to play in all situations and create with a variety of linemates. His game will translate really well to the AHL/NHL after a year or two more in junior.
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19. Jack McBain – C, Toronto Jr. Canadiens
McBain is a big kid who plays with an edge (sometimes a little bit too much of one) and does everything well. But he’s a mediocre skater and if anything’s going to hold him back that will be it. He’s not your typical OJHL star who took the college hockey route because he was too small to play in the OHL. Instead, he’s an overpowering centre who was a first round pick by the Barrie Colts but decided on playing for his neighbourhood team before heading to Boston College. He was outstanding at the World Jr. A Challenge and Hlinka Memorial and that hasn’t slowed in the OJHL.
20. Ryan McLeod – C, Mississauga Steelheads
McLeod is a fantastic player and one of the best skaters in the draft but he’ll often leave you wanting more by hanging onto the puck a touch too long. He’s so light on his edges that if he can crossover before the defender is at full speed, he’s gone. He has started shooting more this year, which was always the biggest knock on him, but he can still over-pass rather than driving to the net. I question whether he has more than third-line upside at the next level, but his skating and cerebral nature/cross-ice vision make him a legitimate prospect.
21. Filip Hallander – C/LW, Timra IK
Scott Wheeler’s 2018 Sneaky-Good Potential Future NHL Star Award™ runner-up.*
Previous runner-ups: Robin Salo (2017), Samuel Girard (2016), Travis Konecny (2015), Ivan Barbashev (2014), Anthony Mantha (2013).
*Still no actual prize.
22. Jonathan Tychonick – D, Penticton Vees
Tychonick has been outstanding in the BCHL this season and he has worked his way into the class’ upper-eschelon group of defenders as a result. It’s hard to nit-pick at his tools. He can skate, he’s patient, he’s assertive away from the puck, and he picks his chances carefully as a carrier. He’s another kid who was always a star against his peers (taken 12th overall in the WHL Bantam Draft) but who opted for the college route and the University of North Dakota. Penticton is a great program and he’s the best defencemen in a top-six that has several other Division I commits.
23. Barrett Hayton – C, Soo Greyhounds
I’ve had my doubts about Hayton this year, I’ll admit. I still do. He has benefitted from playing on a great team and he works so hard and does the little things well enough that he gets a lot of brownie points from scouts as a two-way player. I think he’s got decent offensive gifts, and he was great at Ivan Hlinka for Canada, I’m just not sure he has impact upside as an NHL prospect.
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His coaches are certainly high on him.
“I liken him to Jaden Schwartz a little bit. He is a uber-competitive person that is one of the most coachable people that I’ve ever been around. He’s got a high drive train, he also has unbelievable hands and his shot is excellent. I think the knock on Barrett has been his skating but we’ve never been in a situation where it has seemed to be hampered at all. He’s the real deal,” Greyhounds assistant coach Ryan Ward told me recently.
24. Rasmus Sandin – D, Soo Greyhounds
Early in the year, when Sandin made the decision to leave the SHL for the Greyhounds, his season could have gone a couple of different directions. The Greyhounds have an outstanding defence, the season was already underway, and Sandin could have settled into a third-pairing role. But he played so well that he quickly made himself a go-to option. He’s a smooth-skating, poised defender who can make plays in transition or jump into holes in the offensive zone to finish off plays. He doesn’t have top-pairing upside but I have faith he’ll become a good NHL defenceman.
25. Rasmus Kupari – C, Karpat
I’m still not sold on Kupari. He’s good a smooth stride and decent offensive tools but his progression has been slow. He’s at his best as a carrier, and makes plays as the primary option on his line, but he can fade without the puck. He’s also another player whose standout play at Ivan Hlinka has bolstered perceptions among scouts here, many of whom don’t get to watch a ton of Liiga games. He’s a threat when he’s on his game, and he can weave through traffic to make plays, but he can get caught playing on the perimeter a little too often.
26. Jacob Olofsson – C, Timra IK
You don’t often have two first-round talents playing on the same team together, but the dynamic between Olofsson and Hallander in Allsvenskan makes for fascinating evaluation of the pair. (It helps when they also play with Canucks prospect Jonathan Dahlen.) I think Olofsson plays a stronger two-way game than his teammate, but Hallander has more to offer as a handler and creator. Still, Olofsson does a lot of things really well and in a class devoid of centres, that bodes well.
27. Vitali Kravtsov – C/LW, Chelyabinsk
Kravtsov is one of those players who will, on any given night, blow me away. He has size, skill, room to get stronger, a great shot, and decent on-ice awareness, which allows him to make plays with pro-level pace as a teenager. Kravtsov has been dominant in the MHL, a successful top-9 forward in the VHL, and he’s now beginning to find success in the KHL. That’s huge for an 18-year-old and makes him one of the top Russian prospects in the 2018 class.
28. Blake McLaughlin – C, Chicago Steel
McLaughlin is still a little thin, and it can show in his game with the way he gets pushed around at times, but he’s elusive and makes quick decisions rather than allowing bigger players to out-muscle him. He’s one of the more dangerous forwards in the USHL. He’s also going to need to get stronger to take that effectiveness to the NCAA at the University of Minnesota. But if whichever team takes him can be patient, and also probably move him to the wing, then I think he could be a real steal.
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29. David Gustafsson – C, HV71
Gustafsson is one of the more underrated players in this class but he has been flat out dominant at every level he has ever played at and it’s only a matter of times before those tools make him more than the depth player he has been in the SHL this year. He could be a steal in the late first round or early second round and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he slips further than that. He doesn’t have a big shot but he can finish of plays around the net and he has nice hands.
30. Dominik Bokk – RW, Vaxjo
Scouts have been aware of Bokk for more than a year now, after he tore up the German junior ranks (surprise, surprise) and stepped into the Division A world junior tournament to score a tournament-high seven goals. He’s the only of the nine unranked prospects who moved into the midseason top-62 that made it as far as the first round. Early in the year, I didn’t love how his game was translating in SuperElit but he has since established himself as a threat on a Vaxjo team that boasts a lot of talent, including 19-year-old Axel Sundberg, after he was demoted at the start of January.
31. Philipp Kurashev – C/LW, Quebec Remparts
After an outstanding, all-rookie kind of season in the QMJHL last year, Kurashev has continued to perform well on a low-scoring Remparts team that doesn’t offer him much in the way of help up front. When he plays with (or against) good players, he has always taken his game up a level, either internationally or in this year’s top prospects game. He can break ankles with his ability as a handler, but he isn’t (at least not yet) regarded as a first-round talent by many in the scouting community. I’d disagree.
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As always, I have broken down the ranking into tiers in order to give you a better understanding of their potential fluidity. Scouting and player evaluation is not an exact science and many of these players are a lot more closely ranked than you might think. By popular demand, there are some tweaks to the ranking’s format this time around too, as I have added the players’ birthdates and nationalities, as well as their change versus the preliminary list. As mentioned, there are nine players from the preliminary ranking who didn’t make the midseason list.
Honourable mentions: Riley Sutter, Kyle Topping, Matthew Kellenberger, K’Andre Miller, Mattias Samuelsson, Xavier Bernard, Jacob Bernard-Docker, Alexander Zhabreyev, Albin Eriksson, Anderson MacDonald, Giovanni Vallati, Adam Samuelsson, Tyler Weiss.
If you have any questions about the 2018 draft class or its players, leave them in the comment section below or shoot me a tweet at @scottcwheeler and I’ll answer them in my upcoming draft mailbag.
(Top photos: Getty Images, OHL Images, CHL Images)
