Five NFL free-agency steals and where they fit: Romeo Okwara, Rashard Higgins, and more

Building a team with expensive free agents is not a winning formula. However, that doesn’t mean teams shouldn’t be active in free agency. They just have to be smart about it. The truth is every free-agent acquisition carries risk. How well do you really know the player you’re paying? How will he adapt to a new city, scheme and team? Can the player live up to expectations in an expanded role? These are questions that can’t truly be answered until after the fact.

Without knowing the answers to these questions, teams bid against each other, inflating the value of free agents, which is why it’s so difficult for big-ticket players to live up to their contracts when signing with a new team. Finding free-agent “steals” is the key to maximizing value, but it’s not easy to acquire a player at a lower-than-market-value price that can produce at a high level. Obviously, to get a steal requires some risk. There are reasons certain players can be signed for a lower-than-market-value price.

Using The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia’s free-agent rankings and tier system, we’ll look at five players who were placed in tier 3 (starting-caliber options) or lower who can end up being steals for the teams that sign them.

1. Romeo Okwara, DE (6-4, 263 pounds), 26 years old

Scheme fit: Rushed the passer from both a three-point stance and two-point stance. Kicked inside sometimes in Detroit but is much more effective outside. Lacks the power to play full time on the edge in a 4-3 but might be able to play more in base as a 3-4 end.

Risk factor: High

Okwara was undrafted out of Notre Dame. He played for the Giants his first two seasons but played sparingly. In his first season with Detroit in 2018, he registered 7.5 sacks, but they were mostly effort sacks. In 2019, he totaled only 1.5 sacks. Last offseason, he took his training up to another level, and it paid off. Not only was he stronger, but he also looked like a more mature pass rusher with an actual pass-rush plan. He finished the season with 10 sacks and 61 quarterback pressures. What is even more impressive is the quality of sacks he registered. Okwara ranked fifth in the league in Brandon Thorn’s sack score, which rewards higher quality sacks such as ones accumulated in one-on-one situations against quality tackles.

Former Lions coach Matt Patricia and his staff likely thought Okwara was a liability against the run — they didn’t play him on early downs. Okwara is a long-limbed pass rusher with active hands who can convert speed to power. He’s athletic and has the flexibility and bend to run the arc and finish for sacks.

Week 4, NO vs. DET, 12:44 remaining in the second quarter, third-and-12

Here, Okwara was in a wide-9 alignment against Saints right tackle Ryan Ramczyk (No. 71). This play is a good example of his hand-fighting ability.

Ramczyk controlled Okwara’s initial punch with his inside hand by lifting it, but simultaneously, Okwara used his outside hand to slap down Ramczyk’s outside hand.

Okwara won the edge by swiping away both of Ramczyk’s hands while smoothly flipping his hips toward the quarterback.

He ripped through and showed the ability to bend and flatten his angle to the quarterback. He missed the sack here because he didn’t wrap up, but he forced Drew Brees to check the pass down.

Okwara might just be a high-end situational pass rusher, but it’s one of the most highly valued skills in today’s NFL. Unlike some one-hit wonders, Okwara didn’t accumulate a bunch of lucky cleanup sacks. He looks like a legitimately improved player. The question is whether he can continue to train hard and sustain his success.

Signing him will be risky because of the random nature of his breakout, but it shouldn’t take a bank-breaking deal to sign him. As an undrafted player who broke out late in his career (fifth year) and had his role reduced on “base” downs, Okwara may not get a huge contract offer. There’s a chance that he has to sign a short-term, prove-it deal to show that he can have a repeat performance.

2. Chidobe Awuzie, CB (6-0, 202 pounds), 25 years old

Scheme fit: Awuzie had his best seasons under former Cowboys defensive coordinator Kris Richard playing in his Cover 3 system, but he has the skills and intelligence to play in a man-heavy system as well as zone. However, he does have some trouble locating the ball and might be better playing in a system in which he can play more off coverage and have vision on the ball.

Risk factor: Moderate

On tape, Awuzie looks like an intelligent player with high-end athleticism. He has a good understanding of leverage and knows where his help is. When playing off coverage, his eyes are consistently in the right place and he can quickly break on passes. When playing press coverage, he displays fluid hips and effortlessly changes directions and sticks in the hip pocket of receivers. He can have difficulty locating the ball, which is why he may not excel in a man-heavy system. I think he can function in a man scheme, but I believe he can really excel in a Cover 3 or soft quarters system.

Week 1, DAL vs. LAR, 0:29 remaining in the first quarter, third-and-5

Here, Awuzie was in press coverage against Rams receiver Robert Woods. Awuzie used a soft-shoe technique and backed off and read Woods’ release after the snap.

Because Woods had a short split and he knew he had helped inside, Awuzie worked to Woods’ outside shoulder and played with outside leverage.

After Woods cleared the inside help, Awuzie plastered on him while keeping outside leverage. Because of how long it’s been without the ball being thrown, Awuzie knew that he’s playing his scramble rules and that he has to stay in Woods’ hip pocket.

Awuzie knew that Woods wanted to work back to the sideline and simply walled him off, giving the quarterback nowhere to go with the ball.

Awuzie is only 25, so there’s a chance he’s still developing and might be able to improve his ball skills. It likely won’t ever be a strong suit, but he’s so sticky in coverage that he still has had better-than-average ball production (37 passes defensed in 49 games).

The Athletic’s Bob Sturm wrote in December that a player at his age and with his production may command a deal of $10 million per year, but there looks to be a lot of starting-caliber corners that will hit the market, and Awuzie’s injury history (he’s only played one full season) could discourage teams from overpaying him. In 2017, he broke his hand. In 2020, he missed eight games because of a hamstring injury. If teams are willing to take a chance on a young, athletic, smart corner who has struggled to stay on the field, they may get a very good starter in Awuzie.

3. Rashard Higgins, WR (6-1, 198 pounds), 26 years old

Scheme fit: Potential to be a very good No. 2 receiver in a play-action-heavy scheme

Risk factor: Moderate

Higgins isn’t elite in one area, but he’s very good in a multitude of areas. He’s a crafty route runner with strong hands and does most of his work in the middle of the field. He has the speed to get open deep but is also tough enough to work in the intermediate parts of the field and has a knack for finding open spaces against zone.

Early in his career, he was seemingly in and out of the doghouse with former Brown coaches Hue Jackson and Freddie Kitchens and never established himself until last season. After Odell Beckham Jr. was lost for the season, Higgins became one of Baker Mayfield’s favorite targets. He was one of the most efficient receivers when targeted.

Cody Suek from Orange and Brown Analytics wrote:

“Furthermore, among all wide receivers with a minimum of 50 targets in 2020 (87 qualifiers), Higgins ranked 1st in positive play percentage, which is a Sports Info Solutions metric that measures the percentage of passes thrown to a player that resulted in positive expected points added (think of this as a successful play for the offense).”

Divisional playoffs, KC vs. CLE, 1:48 remaining in the second quarter, second-and-10

Here, Higgins was matched up against Kansas City’s Charvarius Ward (No. 35). Ward was in press coverage but played outside leverage because Higgins was in a tight split and Ward knew he had help inside. Higgins had to run an out route, but he had to take an inside release because of Ward’s leverage.

After getting Ward to open up a bit with an outside move, Higgins went inside and quickly got his shoulders vertical and used his hands to prevent Ward from shoving him too far off his line.

When Higgins got to the breakpoint, he used a throw-by technique and had to fight through heavy contact to get outside.

After catching the pass, he quickly got his feet and shoulders upfield and fell forward for an additional 6 yards.

The free-agent market is saturated with receivers and although Higgins took advantage of Beckham’s absence, he still hasn’t surpassed 600 yards receiving in a season. In 2020, he flashed the ability to be a very good No. 2 receiver. Because of how unproven he is, he may come cheap.

4. Nicholas Morrow, MLB (6-0, 225 pounds), 25 years old

Scheme fit: 4-3 off-ball, weakside linebacker

Risk factor: Low

Morrow has slowly improved each season in the NFL after making the switch from defensive back to linebacker. It took time, but last season, the light bulb finally went off and things slowed down for him. He has always been athletic with excellent movement skills, but last season he was making plays because he knew what he was looking at and was a step ahead of offenses.

The Raiders signed prized-free agent Cory Littleton last offseason to play will linebacker, but Littleton missed time due to injury and COVID-19. In his absence, Morrow was arguably the Raiders’ best defender, making plays in the run game, in coverage and as a blitzer.

Week 13, LV vs. IND, 0:11 remaining in the second quarter, second-and-4

Here, it appeared that the Raiders were in a form of quarters. Morrow was lined up to the three-receiver side. His responsibility was to match the “final 3” receiver after the pattern distribution, meaning he has to take the farthest inside receiver after the receivers release into their routes.

Initially, receiver T.Y. Hilton was the No. 3 receiver. He went down the seam so Morrow walled him off, but he alertly saw the No. 2 receiver (Michael Pittman) running an in-breaking route underneath.

Quarterback Philip Rivers saw Morrow turn his hips upfield with Hilton, so he went underneath to Pittman. Pittman ended up as the farthest inside receiver or final 3, so Morrow got in position to pick him up in coverage.

Morrow broke on the pass and was able to dislodge the ball to force an incompletion.

Morrow is the prototype for what teams are looking for in a modern off-ball linebacker. He has sideline-to-sideline speed, can play man-to-man on running backs, has an excellent break playing zone and some ball skills. His steady improvement from season to season is an encouraging sign that he still has his best ball ahead of him. He has spent his career playing in some terrible Raiders defenses — I’m curious to see how he can perform with better pieces around him.

5. Jason Verrett, CB (5-10, 188 pounds), 29 years old

Scheme fit: Scheme versatile but can excel in a bump-and-run, man-to-man system

Risk factor: Very high

After his second season in the NFL in 2015, it looked like Verrett had the potential to be one of the best corners in the league. However, Verrett played in only five games from 2016 to 2019 because of injuries. After he played in only one game in 2019 with the 49ers, they took another flier on him in 2020 and it paid off big time. Verrett didn’t quite look like he did in 2015, but he exceeded expectations, ranking seventh out of 106 qualifying cornerbacks in yards per snap allowed in man coverage — and he did it against some of the best receivers in the NFL.

Week 16, ARI vs. SF, 0:45 remaining in the second quarter, third-and-8

Here he is lined up in press against DeAndre Hopkins.

He reacted to Hopkins’ inside move by aggressively stepping inside to bump him. However, when Hopkins went back outside, Verrett smoothly pushed off his inside foot and flipped his hips downfield to stay on top of Hopkins.

As Hopkins ran downfield, Verrett put his weight on him to push him to the sideline. He thought the ball was going to come out quick and got his head around to potentially defend a back-shoulder throw.

The ball didn’t come out, so Verrett smoothly flipped his head and hips downfield to stay in Hopkins’ hip pocket. He was still in good position, but he was now “out of phase,” which meant his eyes had to stay on Hopkins, not on the quarterback.

He read Hopkins perfectly. When the ball got there, Verrett had his hand in position to make a play on the ball. Hopkins has some of the strongest hands in the league, but after a struggle, Verrett dislodged the ball.

If Alex Smith didn’t have a miraculous comeback from a broken leg, Verrett would have a legitimate case for the Comeback Player of the Year award — he played that well. However, because he has missed so much time, it’ll be difficult for teams to trust him with a big contract. It might even take consecutive healthy seasons for him to convince teams to offer him a long-term contract. It’s likely that he’ll sign a one-year deal or if there are multiple years, the contract would be heavily incentivized. If he can stay healthy, he’s the type of corner you could trust one-on-one with an offense’s best receiver — an extremely valuable skill.

(Top photo of Romeo Okwara: Frederick Breedon / Getty Images)