A lot of praise goes to Liverpool, Brentford, Norwich City and others for their intelligence in the transfer market, but Borussia Dortmund’s capture of Erling Haaland for just €20 million is one of the best pieces of transfer business in the past decade.
Since arriving from Red Bull Salzburg in January of last year, Haaland has scored 34 goals for Dortmund in 37 Bundesliga appearances. He’s a goalscorer in the purest sense — on a per-90-minutes basis, he’s easily averaging over a goal a game — and at just 20 years old, is likely to dominate the European game for many years to come.
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At Salzburg, Haaland had a release clause inserted into his contract after signing from Molde in his native Norway for a reported £7 million in the January 2019 window. His Dortmund deal is structured similarly, with a release clause of €75 million that activates in July 2022. Dortmund pipped Juventus, RB Leipzig and Manchester United to signing the striker, and are likely to make a handsome profit on their investment when they do look to sell.
With many of Europe’s elite not wanting to miss their shot a second time around, a bidding war could ensue for Haaland’s services this summer.
With Manchester City and Chelsea among those interested, now is a good time to assess just what Haaland is so good at, how he compares to others in Europe, and appraise a few of the potential destinations.
Erling Haaland’s main skill is, wait for it… scoring goals.
In club football this season, he has netted 20 non-penalties, behind only Robert Lewandowski, who is on 29, level with Lionel Messi and one ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo. He’s at least 12 years younger than those players and is arguably playing for an inferior team than all three.
He profiles like a pure goalscorer as well when looking at his smarterscout data.
A huge proportion of his touches are either shots or receiving passes in the box; he’s rarely passing forwards, but he does drop deep to link the play together and retains the ball a little worse than average.
Perhaps given the way Dortmund look to control possession and how he receives the ball, he’s not involved in many aerial duels for a player of his height and strength — Haaland is 6ft 4in. Out of possession, he adds very little as he is given the licence to just focus on scoring.
Dortmund usually line up in a 4-2-3-1, although in recent matches against Cologne and Eintracht Frankfurt it’s been a 4-1-4-1 with Haaland at the tip of the attack, flanked from the wings by Thorgan Hazard and either Marco Reus or Giovanni Reyna. They don’t quite press with the same intensity as Dortmund sides of yesteryear, opting to turn moments of transition into attacks quickly by utilising the players they have out wide.
Despite his age, Haaland already sticks out when compared to Europe’s elite.
The chart below shows both the non-penalty goals and expected goals (xG, a measure of chance quality based on historical data) of all players in the big five European leagues to have played 900 minutes or more this season. Haaland gets into better scoring positions on average than everyone bar Lewandowski and Paris Saint-Germain’s Mauro Icardi and he’s just shy of joining the “one goal per 90” club, whose current members in Europe are only Lewandowski and Luis Muriel of Atalanta, whose 1.49 goals per 90 is so high it ruins the whole chart.
When compared to other under-23 players, not even Kylian Mbappe of PSG comes close to Haaland’s scoring exploits. He’s an outlier in the truest sense.
Those scoring numbers are the outcome of Haaland’s talents, but the process of how he scored the goals to produce those figures is what sets him apart.
As discussed recently on the Zonal Marking podcast, the way a striker scores goals can be thought of as a triangle.
One side represents a striker’s ability in the air, both as a means of attacking from crosses and set pieces and holding up play following long passes. Another side is their ability to link play, retaining possession under pressure and dribbling past opposition players. The last side is a player’s pace, allowing them to play in behind or find space in the box, utilising their acceleration.
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Here’s an illustration of what that looks like, not based on any data (for now).
Jamie Vardy is a player who sits in the bottom-left quadrant. He’s not an amazing link player, and not great in the air, but it is his pace that has made him such a lethal striker for Leicester City in recent seasons.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic of AC Milan, on the other hand, is someone who can link play a little, is fantastic in the air, but now, six months before turning 40 in October, he lacks the speed to offer a threat in behind.
Haaland, though, is a player who has it all.
He is equally effective in each of these areas, meaning he can score off different types of chances from a variety of situations. That’s what makes him so potent in front of goal.
It has been mentioned how he can follow in the footsteps of Messi and Ronaldo, a comment pointing to the way they have both dominated the scoring charts at the highest levels of the game for so long. Haaland’s seen as an heir to that duopoly — perhaps alongside Mbappe — because he has the tools to keep up his unmatched scoring rate. Where Haaland currently differs from Messi and Ronaldo is that they are also serial trophy winners domestically and in Europe, something that will only happen for Haaland if he gets his next transfer right.
Analysing some of his recent goals shows exactly why that’s the case.
The first of his double in a 4-0 win over Schalke in late February highlighted his movement and appreciation of space.
The move starts with Julian Brandt running down the left in space, with Haaland heading towards the box as well.
Brandt isn’t quite in a position to cross, but Haaland makes his first move, a blindside run into space between the centre-backs.
He takes his foot off the gas and floats a couple of strides closer to goal after Brandt decides to check back.
A few seconds later, Jadon Sancho is on the ball, with Haaland signalling for the cross. Here, he’s got plenty of separation from the defender, who is likely caught in two minds over whether to go tight and run the risk of being blasted past, or stay deep and risk Haaland beat him in the air. Poor Bastian Oczipka.
Haaland holds his ground, finishing off Sancho’s cross with an emphatic bicycle kick.
Arguably, the move that makes the space for the goal is Raphael Guerreiro’s run from just in front of Haaland to the other side of the box, opening up the space for the cross. Let’s take nothing away from the finish, though…
The next example is from later in the same game.
This time, the ball’s on the right-hand side with Sancho, who is supported by Jude Bellingham.
Bellingham makes a run in behind his closest defender, with Sancho knocking the ball in to him. Here, Haaland makes his first move towards the near post…
…before changing direction and heading for the space at the back post.
That classic combination of one run for the defender and one for me was a staple movement of Gary Lineker’s game (as he explained to The Athletic here) and gives Haaland an easy tap-in following Bellingham’s inch-perfect cross through a packed area.
Another example comes from Dortmund’s 3-1 win away to RB Leipzig in early January.
The ball is at Haaland’s feet, with Dortmund attacking in transition and at speed. He is surrounded by five Leipzig defenders, but, using his deft close-control and the agility of an alpine skier, he turns this situation…
…into this one, beating a couple of the players, single-handedly discombobulating the whole back line and opening up plenty of space for Sancho on the left.
Leipzig recover, and after a bit of interplay between Sancho and Guerreiro again, the ball is crossed towards the back post.
Here, Haaland is marked closely by Marcel Halstenberg…
…but he manages to get a good leap over the centre-back and powers a header past a helpless Peter Gulacsi.
This goal is a great example of Haaland’s ability to help build play with the ball at his feet and under pressure, and also of his strength in the air.
Our final example shows Haaland’s lightning speed, in the 4-2 loss to Bayern Munich a month ago. With the ball at Nico Schulz’s feet, he starts his run between the two centre-halves. Jerome Boateng turns to look for Haaland but can’t see him behind his shoulder.
When Schulz pokes the ball through to Hazard — whose run has opened up an even larger gap between Boateng and Niklas Sule — Boateng again looks for his man, but by now has lost him completely. Haaland ghosts in and smashes a shot past Manuel Neuer.
It looks even better in real-time:
We are 8️⃣ minutes into #DerKlassiker and Erling Haaland has scored twice ⚠️
The movement. The finish. This guy is a pure striker! pic.twitter.com/SC4cym7SiL
— Football on BT Sport (@btsportfootball) March 6, 2021
These are the tools of a man who has 100 career goals at the age of 20.
So, where does he go from here? Following on from our Liverpool profile, this is how five other clubs stack up as possible destinations for Haaland.
In David Ornstein’s Athletic column from a month ago, it was noted how Mbappe has effectively priced himself out of a move to Manchester City by looking for wages in line with those of his PSG team-mate Neymar. That crosses him off as a potential option for Pep Guardiola’s City, with the focus shifting now to Haaland or perhaps Romelu Lukaku of Inter Milan.
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With Sergio Aguero announcing last week that he’s leaving City at the end of this season, there’s a requirement to find a successor to him at some point. Despite the physical differences between the two players, there is a lot that Haaland and Aguero have in common. Both get in the box a lot and look to shoot frequently, and they also both link play well. The added dimension that Haaland provides is that he’s more of an aerial threat than the 5ft 8in Aguero too, and is arguably quicker than him over both shorter and longer distances.
With City steaming towards a third title in four years, despite Aguero only playing 373 Premier League minutes this season and Gabriel Jesus scoring just eight of their 66 league goals, there’s not really a short-term need for a striker. This team have shown they can cope and — barring any unforeseen circumstances — win the league without one.
But thinking long-term, there will be a point in which City will look to move on from Guardiola.
Having a generational talent as part of the package for whoever takes the reins next is a sure-fire way to stay competitive in the years to come, looking to prevent a painful decline that the likes of Manchester United and Arsenal have suffered in the past decade after losing talismanic managers in Sir Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger.
In this City side, Haaland would pair well with the crosses supplied by the likes of Joao Cancelo and Kevin De Bruyne, and be an additional threat from set pieces beside the likes of Ruben Dias and John Stones. Guardiola’s side create plenty of chances — 9.7 per 90 minutes from open play in the Premier League this season, more than any other team — so having a pure scorer of Haaland’s ilk is ideal to put the finishing touches to the moves.
His arrival would also ease the burden on top scorer Ilkay Gundogan. Though he’s got into some great positions this season, it’s unlikely the midfielder will continue to finish at such a high rate in future without improving upon his shot volume.
Chelsea
Unlike City, Chelsea very much do need a No 9. Olivier Giroud is still firing at 34 but you cannot bank on him for the long term. Tammy Abraham is a good striker for his age, 23, but perhaps isn’t the dynamite talent Chelsea want to build their team around.
Looking at their tilemap of scorers this season below, there’s not a clear source of goals. It’s unlikely Chelsea are going to have their lowest top league goalscorer since Gianluca Vialli finished 1996-97 with just nine, but whoever bags the most won’t finish with many more than that.
Timo Werner has shown he’s not overly effective as a No 9, and framing him through the “striker triangle” detailed above points to him only being effective with his speed so far under first Frank Lampard and now Thomas Tuchel.
January appointment Tuchel has previously got the best out of Mbappe and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, so history tells us he’s capable of building a side that can play to Haaland’s strengths and ensure his scoring exploits translate to the Premier League.
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It’s not that an attacking focal point would be nice, it’s a must for Chelsea. In league games since Tuchel arrived, Chelsea have been the best team in the league defensively when looking at the non-penalty xG against per game, but rank just 12th for non-penalty xG in attack. They’ve scored nine non-penalty goals under him in the league, level with relegation-candidate neighbours Fulham and only more than Crystal Palace (8), Sheffield United (7) and Wolves (5).
Given how similar a player Aguero is to Haaland, and how, from a data perspective, Aguero’s a good fit for Chelsea, the same argument can be made that Haaland also suits Tuchel’s system.
All of that suggests he would be a good choice for Chelsea from a team-building perspective.
Tactically, Tuchel’s focus on creating chances from wide positions will suit Haaland too.
The examples above from the likes of Bellingham from wide and Sancho from just outside the area would be replicated by the likes of Ben Chilwell from the left and Reece James on the right. Further, Tuchel’s pragmatism —for example, against Liverpool when he deployed Werner against Jurgen Klopp’s high line — points to Haaland giving the German plenty of alternative ways to approach more taxing opposition line-ups.
Real Madrid
Perhaps more so than Manchester City and Chelsea, Real Madrid urgently need re-tooling.
At 28.4 years, their team is the 10th oldest in Europe this season when looking at weighted average age (age of player multiplied by his share of minutes played) and they are so reliant on the 33-year-old Karim Benzema for goals. This season, the Frenchman has 18 of them in the league. Their next highest scorer is defensive midfielder Casemiro, with five.
Little wonder Haaland’s father Alfie and agent Mino Raiola took a meeting with the Bernabeu club last week.
They haven’t spent any money on transfers this season, and the 2019-20 splurge that brought in Eden Hazard, Luka Jovic, Eder Militao, Ferland Mendy, Rodrygo and Reinier for more than £300 million is having mixed results so far. Madrid don’t have a war chest — they were financially stretched even before COVID-19 hit — but had earmarked this summer to go for Mbappe as their marquee signing. In theory, Haaland could line up as a cheaper option.
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Haaland’s role under Zidane would be different to what he is used to.
Benzema has a fairly active role in possession, with his 39 passes per 90 placing him in the 96th percentile for players in Europe in the past year. With that burden of possession comes a need to retain it, something Benzema excels at more than Haaland does for Dortmund.
Off the field, Madrid have a good relationship with the German club too, as shown by Achraf Hakimi being loaned there last season before his move to Inter Milan in the summer, and Dortmund borrowing Reinier in this one.
This is a side whose current stars are fading. The signing of Haaland could be the Big Bang moment ushering in their next wave of galacticos.
Manchester United
It is hard to rule out Manchester United as another potential destination.
There’s the obvious Norwegian connection with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, who managed a teenage Haaland at Molde, the clear need in the squad for another No 9, particularly with Edinson Cavani’s possible departure, and the fact United have a long-standing interest. Before Dortmund swooped in, United were close to signing him from Salzburg.
With reports suggesting Cavani, who is 34 already, could head home to South America at the end of his short-term contract this summer, United need a longer-term solution up front. Anthony Martial, who could be out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, is a very streaky finisher, teenager Mason Greenwood is too young to lead the line consistently for a club of their stature and Marcus Rashford’s talents are better suited out wide where he can create and score.
Haaland would pair well with Bruno Fernandes. The Portugal midfielder’s high-risk, high-reward passing would benefit from someone with the speed and intelligent movement of Haaland and also offer a way of easing the scoring burden on his own shoulders.
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They are one of the few clubs whose revenue streams haven’t taken too much of a hit in the pandemic with executive vice-chairman Ed Woodward focused on ensuring the club has multiple ways of making money. As a result, they should have the requisite funds to invest heavily in the squad.
Despite the obvious on-pitch impact Haaland would have, any chance of a deal with United could be disrupted by the club’s fractious relationship with agent Raiola, who also represents their current record signing Paul Pogba.
Barcelona
Time waits for no man, not even Lionel Messi.
That’s the predicament facing new Barcelona president Joan Laporta, as planning for life without the mercurial Argentinian, who turns 34 in June, is the Catalan club’s biggest on-field issue in the long-term — one which will define Laporta’s second stint in the job.
Looking at Barcelona’s squad, there’s plenty of young talent in attacking positions. Ansu Fati, Pedri and Trincao are all under 21 and three examples of strength in depth across the pitch, with Pedri the most heavily used of the three this season. Up front though, there’s only Martin Braithwaite, who was playing for Middlesbrough in the Championship just over two years ago, on the depth chart. Antoine Griezmann is nominally down as an attacking midfielder in the chart below — he can, of course, play as a striker — but nevertheless, there’s a clear lack of a quality front man in the squad.
Haaland wouldn’t at all represent a like-for-like replacement for Messi due to his position and interpretation of that role being very different. Messi is the chef, waiter and customer of Barcelona’s attack, starting, building and finishing off moves. Haaland on the other hand largely uses his fantastic movement to take advantage of the play of his team-mates.
That’s reflected in the numbers too. According to smarterscout, Messi has been involved in 71 per cent of Barcelona’s moves leading to shots this season when on the field, whereas Haaland has been involved in just 41 per cent of Dortmund’s. Further, of games within the past year, Messi has averaged 88 touches per 90, according to Statsbomb data on fbref.com, which is more than three times Haaland’s average of 28. To Barcelona, Haaland would represent a very different sort of player than they are accustomed to.
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Put simply, Messi has scored at least 25 La Liga goals per season every year since 2009-10, with an average in that time of 34.
On recent evidence, Haaland is one of only a handful of young players in the game who could come remotely close to emulating that.
(Top photos: Getty Images; design: Sam Richardson)
