Trevor Story to the Rangers? Here are two trade hypotheticals that just might work

After the Rockies’ clumsy trade of Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals in late January, attention quickly turned to All-Star shortstop Trevor Story, the next best player in line to be shipped out of Colorado.

Kick a team while it’s down, why dontcha. But there’s a reason for the interest. Story is a two-time All-Star and Silver Slugger winner. He’s figured in three National League MVP votes. And he is near or at the top of a coming free-agent class of shortstops next winter that rivals any in baseball’s history.

And the Rockies, after their trade of Arenado, appear to have little desire to spend on another multi-hundred-million-dollar contract. Or, Story would have little use for them. Or both. In other words, he’s tradable.

One team, in particular, seems like a solid fit for Story, at least if the cosmos has anything to say about it. The Texas Rangers are Story’s hometown team. They would hardly say no to the idea. The stars feel aligned.

Assuming all that, how would a trade for Story between the Rockies and Rangers work? Should they do it? Would they do it? Could they do it?

Nick Groke: Jamey, howdy, we’re back at it. The last time we tried this idea, in an Arenado trade hypothetical, Rockies fans were displeased by our return. It turns out, though, that we overestimated what Colorado would net in a trade.

I’m curious about the Rangers. The Rockies and Rangers are in similar positions right now, trending toward the bottom of their divisions. But the Rangers are in a much better position to turn around their fate and rise soon. Would a Story trade fit with their plan right now? Is it too much too soon? Is this even on the table?

Jamey Newberg: Ah, yes, I remember our December 2019 Arenado talks well: Colorado offers an elite infielder with two guaranteed seasons remaining (before his opt-out). Texas offers the arguably underwhelming package of pitchers Brock Burke (then healthy, with a little MLB experience), Tyler Phillips and Reid Anderson, outfielder J.P. Martinez and catcher Matt Whatley. And the Rangers want $50 million and Swiss Army knife Garrett Hampson tossed in for good measure.

Fast forward 13 months: The real-world Rockies trade that elite infielder — now with just one of those guaranteed years remaining — and get the arguably even more underwhelming package of pitchers Austin Gomber (with a little MLB experience), Tony Locey and Jake Sommers, third baseman Elehuris Montero and shortstop (and Dallas-Fort Worth product) Mateo Gil, while sending St. Louis $51 million — $15 million of which is earmarked for a 2027 season added to the end of his contract.

Speaking of DFW-raised shortstops …

And now 14 months out from the heated Groke-Newberg Arenado negotiation, Colorado is presumably listening on yet another elite infielder a year before free agency. Given what the Rockies accepted from St. Louis for Arenado, what if the Rangers offer another arguably underwhelming package for the right to suit up Story for six months before vigorously pitching him the idea of an Arenado-length contract to stay in Texas?

Under the circumstances, an “underwhelming” return is the only way the Rangers would play ball here. Two factors are at play:

1. The risk that Story won’t actually sign long-term to stay in Texas.

2. The Rangers’ possible disinclination to absorb a sizable contract in what probably won’t be a contending season. They could simply sit back and jump into the Story sweepstakes next winter, though there has to be some level of allure to having him get comfortable playing in Texas for a year before other teams will be in the mix to sign him.

I’m not saying Burke-Phillips-Anderson-Martinez-Whatley would have been a better deal for the Rockies than Gomber-Locey-Sommers-Montero-Gil — though I’m also not willing to say it wouldn’t have been — but in retrospect, we were in the neighborhood, right? And that was for a player who didn’t have free agency right around the corner.

Would Colorado stay on the phone if Texas kicked off the call by saying, “Yes, we’re interested in Trevor Story, but we won’t offer a ton”? Do the Rockies have enough leverage to simply hang up?

Groke: There are two baselines for a Story trade, two recent precedents that will inform what the Rockies can ask for. First is the Francisco Lindor trade between the Mets and Cleveland. We can quibble all day about the relative value of elite shortstops, but Lindor and Story are basically at the same level and both are scheduled to hit free agency next winter, so they are a clean comparison.

In the Lindor trade, the immediate takeaway was that the Mets fleeced Cleveland. But I’m not sure it’s that lopsided. From Cleveland’s side, the club shed a bunch of payroll, which was its primary motivating factor. And it gained two big-league players in return, in Amed Rosario and Andrés Giménez, plus two down-list prospects. It also had to give the Mets a veteran starter with club control, the durable Carlos Carrasco, which tilted the benefit toward the Mets. But the addition of Carrasco rounded out what Cleveland could ask for in return.

The Rockies don’t have a Carrasco to give Texas. They don’t have any higher-priced pitchers with years left on their contracts to include with Story. And they aren’t exactly looking to cut payroll, anyway. So they can either throw in somebody else, a younger pitcher perhaps, or the bigger contract of a hitter if they want to save money (Charlie Blackmon is the only player who fits this description).

If not, then we have to guess what the Lindor trade would have been without Carrasco. And this is already giving me a headache. I’m punting on the details for now. But generally, the Rockies should ask for a major league-ready player, at least, and some sweeteners. I have some names in mind.

The second precedent underlining a Story trade for the Rockies is the Arenado trade. You mentioned why that is a much different trade, and you’re right. But that trade still happened. And with it, the Rockies announced they can be bullied. The Rangers will immediately start by lowballing Colorado general manager Jeff Bridich. They should! It worked for the Cardinals.

So, hit me up with your offensive, lowball offer, and let’s start from there.

Newberg: I was hoping you’d conveniently forget about the Lindor trade. But yes, adding the Carrasco piece surely amplified Cleveland’s return from the Mets.

OK, if I were in your shoes, I would guess that, ideally, a shortstop would head the other way, right? Assuming Brendan Rodgers is no longer thought of as the heir apparent there, I’m going to start my offer with Anderson Tejeda. He made the leap (along with four other Rangers prospects) from Single A to the big leagues last summer and didn’t embarrass himself. In 77 plate appearances, he hit .253 with eight of his 19 hits going for extra bases, including three home runs. Tejeda’s two carrying tools are plus raw power and a plus arm from shortstop, and he added switch-hitting to his profile in 2019. He’s viewed as a legitimate candidate to play everyday shortstop in the majors. He won’t make the Rangers’ roster out of camp — with Isiah Kiner-Falefa sliding over to shortstop this year, they’ll want Tejeda getting everyday at-bats on the farm rather than six a week off the bench — but he’s not far from being ready.

After that, I’m going to suggest A.J. Alexy’s high-octane arm belongs in Rockies stripes. He was sitting 97 mph at Fall Instructional League play, topping out at 99.6. Although he worked only five FIL innings, he didn’t allow a single base hit, striking out nine. Developed as a starting pitcher since Texas acquired him in the 2017 Yu Darvish trade with the Dodgers, that seems to remain the plan, but many believe the 22-year-old’s long-term home might be in the bullpen and that he could arrive quickly if put on that path.

I’ve already betrayed my own pledge to underwhelm you. That’s two fairly legitimate prospects. Let’s add a few more pieces because that seems to be the modern template in this type of deal (Arenado, Lindor, Mookie Betts). I’m still going to offer you Tyler Phillips, who will be on his second option this year and projects to fill a spot toward the bottom of the rotation. He’s a sturdy pitcher who succeeds with command over stuff. And with the additions of a couple of first-base prospects in recent trades (Tampa Bay’s Jake Guenther and Oakland’s Dustin Harris), that gives me the depth to offer you Blaine Crim. Solid potential with the bat but stands under 6 feet, which calls his defensive future into question. But, hey — Max Muncy.

So let me know how that hits you: shortstop Tejeda, right-handers Alexy and Phillips and first baseman Crim, all for Story and, let’s say, $7.5 million. The Rangers would probably be more willing to part with a package like that for a player who might leave in a year if he only took up $10 million of their payroll.

And it’s important we get this done before Opening Day. Texas will want to be able to make Story a qualifying offer (assuming that feature lives on in the new CBA), so there’s at least a supplemental first-round pick if Story isn’t into the idea of leading his hometown team back into contention over the bulk of the decade.

Groke: Is there some reason Kiner-Falefa isn’t part of this package? The Rockies’ drop-off at shortstop after Story is severe. They have nobody ready for that role. If Story leaves tomorrow, the starter would probably be Chris Owings. The next available prospect is Alan Trejo. They would definitely ask for a big leaguer.

Newberg: Interesting on Kiner-Falefa. The Rangers would hope you wouldn’t ask for him. He’s versatile enough to have a Gold Glove at third base and 73 big-league games as a catcher, even though he’s unquestionably at his best in the middle infield. He hit .280 in 2020 and won’t be a free agent until after 2023. His defensive prowess would allow the Rangers to adjust the core of the roster in several ways – and if Story were to arrive in 2021, I’d guess Kiner-Falefa would become the starting second baseman. He’s certainly not untouchable, but if he were in the deal, the remaining pieces would need to be a whole lot different.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (Jerome Miron / USA Today)

Groke: The timeline you mention is important. The Rockies’ worst-case scenario is they keep Story all year for no good reason except to extend him a qualifying offer that he will surely refuse. But at least they gain a draft pick when he signs somewhere else. That’s not for nothing.

But if the Rockies balk and wait until after Opening Day, the Rangers would lose out on the same insurance of a qualifying offer, in case they can’t sign Story this year. So a deadline trade, for instance, might increase the Rockies’ trade value with a small handful of teams trying to make a World Series run, but it would eliminate the Rangers from the world of the trade market.

So, let’s recap. Two trades are percolating:

1. Story to the Rangers for a prospect haul headed by Tejeda, Texas’ No. 18 prospect, who can hit homers, is above average in the field with a cannon arm but hasn’t really hit otherwise and missed development time after an injury rolled into a pandemic, then was called up too early last year. He, plus two pitchers and a 19th-round pick from 2019.

2. Story to the Rangers for Kiner-Falefa, a Gold Glove defender with the kind of versatility the Rockies would drool over. They could immediately plug him in at shortstop for Opening Day. Then maybe one of the above prospects — let’s say Alexy, the high-velo guy. And the Rockies could kick back some cash to the Rangers — let’s say $4 million.

To be blunt, there’s no reason Story is on the Rockies’ roster right now. It makes little sense. There is no indication that he’s willing to sign with them long-term. They haven’t offered him a deal anyway. He should have been traded yesterday. The only excuse is that Colorado’s front office didn’t have the bandwidth to handle an Arenado trade and a Story trade at the same time, but it’s had more than a month to recuperate from its Cardinals deal.

The Rangers make a lot of sense. Story would play in his hometown. The Rangers would have a full season of exclusive bargaining time to work out a long-term deal. And the Rockies could start to pivot toward their future.

Because the Rockies have a young rotation they really like, they are not interested in a long rebuild. So they have to determine how quickly Tejeda can be ready as an everyday major leaguer. Kiner-Falefa is already there.

Are we at a breaking point? Can the Rockies demand Kiner-Falefa? Would the Rangers hold fast on Tejeda instead?

Newberg: I don’t think they would part with Kiner-Falefa with a prospect at Alexy’s level attached. Would a Story-for-Kiner-Falefa deal, straight up, interest either team? I’m not sure they wouldn’t both say no.

If I’m Texas, I probably stick with that leverage situation — though you are correct that the leverage isn’t fully one-sided; if the Rangers don’t deal for Story this month, they run the risk of a contending team landing him over the summer and striking a long-term extension.

I think I’ve got to stick with the original offer: Tejeda, Alexy, Phillips and Crim.

I understand if this doesn’t put the Rockies where they think they need to be, not only from a baseball standpoint but also from a marketing and goodwill angle. But I think I’ve pushed up against the limit of what Texas would part with … that is, if I haven’t actually blown by wherever that bright line sits.

Groke: You called my bluff. Honestly, what you’re offering is reasonable. Put it this way: The Rockies can either keep Story for one more season and gain a draft pick (a second-rounder somewhere in the 60s, probably) or give away that year and gain four players, including Tejeda, who seems to be the kind of player they’d draft with a pick in the 60s anyway, plus two pitchers and a first baseman.

Let’s book it.

Newberg: Hey, good deal. Maybe you and I should work out the next collective bargaining agreement.

Groke: I’m good, thank you.

You make the call

A hypothetical Trevor Story trade between the Rockies and Rangers, centered around the All-Star shortstop and Texas’ No. 18 prospect, shortstop Anderson Tejeda. Does it work? Or would you prefer Option No. 2? How would you change it? Or would you scrap everything and hang up the phone?

(Top photo: Rick Scuteri / USA Today)