NFL free agent tracker: Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, Curtis Samuel and more fantasy football values of signings

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - NOVEMBER 22:  Curtis Samuel #10 of the Carolina Panthers reacts after a touchdown reception during the second half against the Detroit Lions with Matt Paradis #61 at Bank of America Stadium on November 22, 2020 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
By Jake Ciely
Mar 20, 2021

This is all about the fantasy football impact of NFL free-agent signings. Kenny Golladay signs with the Giants and Will Fuller heads to Miami in the recent signings. JuJu Smith-Schuster is returning to the Steelers. Does Kenyan Drake ruin Josh Jacobs value? Jared Cook and Curtis Samuel are the latest free agents to sign with Marvin Jones also off to the Jaguars. And thankfully, the Patriots have finally gone quiet. But, if you’re curious where the players ranked at the start of free agency, check Sheil Kapadia’s original Top 150.

The latestUpdated deals around the NFL
GradesOur reaction to free agency moves
NeedsHoles each team must fill


2021 NFL FREE AGENT TRACKER

Kenny Golladay, WR: GIANTS

While the Giants desperately needed a No. 1 receiver, this isn’t the best landing spot for Golladay’s fantasy value. Yes, Golladay is a contested-catch beast, but Matthew Stafford has been better in all aspects the past two years compared to Daniel Jones… not that you need to be told if you’ve watched them play. For comparison though, here are their stats:

QB: Catchable%/OnTGT%/20+ yards plays/Comp% 20+ yards/AirATT/AirComp
Stafford: 69.4/73.3/95/39.8/9.4/7.5
Jones: 66.6/70.9/70/36.0/7.8/6.1
DIFF: -2.8/-2.4/-25/-3.8/-1.6/-1.4

Advertisement

Golladay is the no-doubt No. 1 receiver for the Giants, but where he was a WR1 in 2019 with 65/1190/11 on 116 targets, a line of 110/60/1000/8 is more reasonable of an expectation with Jones. Unfortunately, in fantasy, that would equate to WR23 and 24 the past two seasons… quite the drop (and disappointment) from Golladay’s ceiling and potential.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR: STEELERS

Rinse and repeat (and more limits on his upside) for JJSS. Smith-Schuster has gone from a WR1 alongside Antonio Brown to a slot-limited, low-end, reception-based WR2. His Air/TGT went from 10.1, 9.3 and 9.8 to 6.0 last year with 84.9% of his snaps in the slot. Smith-Schuster finished with 97/831/9 on 128 targets last year, and it’s hard to see much of an improvement with his use and Roethlisberger’s arm (or lack thereof at this point). Diontae Johnson is the No. 1 and was Top 5 in FPPG for his 11 healthy games. Chase Claypool impressed as a rookie and enters his second season, being a big-time outside receiver and serious touchdown threat. In fact, Smith-Schuster’s return to Pittsburgh could drop him into the WR3 range.

Will Fuller, WR: DOLPHINS

This is far from an ideal fit for Fuller. There is an opening for a No. 2 (truly, a No. 1 would have been great with a Kenny Golladay, pushing DeVante Parker to No. 2), and that’s opportunistic from a workload sense, but Tua Tagovailoa fails in comparison to Deshaun Watson, particularly in big-play upside for his receivers. For comparison’s sake, here are the numbers:

Comp% (20+ yards)/Catchable%/OnTGT%/AirATT/AirComp
Watson: 50.0/73.7/77.2/8.9/7.5
Tagovailoa: 38.7/68.3/72.1/7.5/5.6
DIFF: -11.3/-5.0/-5.1/-1.4/-1.9

As mentioned, Tagovailoa doesn’t reach Watson’s level… in any area. I do believe Tagovailoa can improve and hasn’t reached his true potential, but Fuller’s big-play upside takes a hit, which would make his 53/879/8 line from last year feel reasonable for an entire 15-game season (suspended one more game). Maybe Fuller can push 1,000 yards for his first time, but there he’ll remain volatile and big-play and touchdown reliant.

Advertisement

Kenyan Drake, RB: RAIDERS

This hurts everyone and helps no one… but the Raiders overall. Josh Jacobs has an even bigger threat to his touches, and Drake ends up as the No. 2 in a timeshare versus having the potential to outright lead a backfield. Drake is a bit like Jacobs and more of lead with some pass-catching work versus a pure pass-catching threat like a Jalen Richard. If the Raiders would “free” Jacobs, we see he has the potential for Top 10 value, and even if they would have stuck with the Richard’s of the world, we’d be happy with fringe RB1 value. As it stands, Jacobs is squarely in teens for running backs, and Drake is one of the better backups to grab late if Jacobs were to suffer another injury. With both out there though, Drake is no more than a high-end backup who will frustrate you if you try to use him, hoping for a touchdown.

Jared Cook, TE: CHARGERS

With Hunter Henry off to the Patriots, the Chargers decided to find an outside replacement for Henry’s 93/60/613/4 line instead of asking Donald Parham to step up. Parham showed some flashes and is a nightmare matchup for defenses, but the Chargers might have doubts about his every-week ability. Cook doesn’t outright prevent Parham from breaking out at this point of Cook’s career. Cook is coming off 60/37/504/7 in 15 Saints games. Even if you factor in the Saints lower passing attack last year, Cook is still touchdown reliant and even relies on some big plays for fantasy value. Cook’s line of 500/7 would be a reasonable expectation in Los Angeles, maybe a bit more skewed to yards with 600/6. That’s not overly exciting, or again, enough to guarantee Parham won’t pass him on the depth chart. What it does is make Cook out to be an inconsistent, touchdown-reliant, low-end TE1 with a low ceiling, who I won’t roster anywhere.

Curtis Samuel, WR: FOOTBALLS

I love this fit for the opportunity, Ryan Fitzpatrick and everything involved. Samuel is extremely dangerous after the catch, is a playmaker with carries and gives Fitzpatrick an established option across from Terry McLaurin, who will draw less double (and triple) coverage. No other receiver topped 477 yards after McLaurin and his 1,118, but Samuel will change that… again, with a boost from Fitzpatrick over the quarterback mess of 2020. Samuel finished as WR25 last year with 77/851/3 receiving and 41/200/2 rushing. That feels like the floor for Samuel in the Washington offense now as the clear No. 2 and not dealing with D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson. A Top 20 finish is within reach.

Gerald Everett, TE: SEAHAWKS

The Seahawks tight end situation was a mess between the three of Greg Olsen, Jacob Hollister and Will Dissly. They combined for 106/73/699/6, which would be great if all going to one option. The concern is that Everett will see shared work just as he did with the Rams, but there is an opportunity to push ahead and garner the majority of the work, making Everett a late-round flier with fringe TE1 upside… and you just drop him if the committee continues

A.J. Green, WR: CARDINALS

Green will look to have a late-career bounceback, hopefully finding similar success to Larry Fitzgerald before him. This signing can help Green and Christian Kirk or cap both similarly to Fitz and Kirk last year. Assuming Green primarily plays outside and across from DeAndre Hopkins, Kirk could have tremendous success out of the slot. Fitzgerald forced Kirk outside 87% of the time, and if Kirk is the primary option there, he’ll finally take a step forward with consistent WR3 value. Green could spend some time there (17.0% last year), but it’s Kirk’s time to shine. Green is more of a WR4/5 with a low floor and moderate ceiling if last year was more about a long layoff, but at 33-years-old (July), the odds are against him.

Advertisement

Marvin Jones, WR: JAGUARS

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars to the moon! The Jaguars attempted 589 and 616 passes the past two years, and while the defense is improved and the team will take a big step forward in 2021, Lawrence throwing the ball 575+ times is more than a reasonable expectation. D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault form the top three weapons, in order, and Jones’ arrival does more for the likelihood that Lawrence impresses as a rookie than hurt Chark. Lawrence was going to help Chark and Keelan Cole and Chris Conley are gone, replaced by Jones and Phillip Dorsett, who is a limited No. 4 option and might not hold off Collin Johnson. Cole and Conley vacate 151 targets, which means Chark can get back to 110+ with Jones still getting 100+ and Shenault his 80+ (had 79 last year), especially with Lawrence and Urban Meyer. Chark is still a high-end WR2, pushing the WR1 tier with Jones holding his WR3 value with upside for a few Top 15 weeks and Shenault as a WR3/4 with his added backfield touches.

John Brown, WR: RAIDERS

Brown replaces Nelson Agholor and will be on the field for three-wide sets, at the least. Brown is a threat to Bryan Edwards and even Henry Ruggs to lead the Raiders in receiving if either, or both, doesn’t take a step forward in Year 2. The ideal Raiders scenario from a developmental angle is Ruggs being the No. 1, Edwards the 2 and Hunter Renfrow being the slot option with Brown rotating in and being the No. 4. As rookies, Ruggs and Edwards struggled, and Edwards missed significant time, so Brown is set to be a top two Raiders receiver to start the season and potentially all year. He can carry WR4 value unless Ruggs and Edwards break out together.

Jamaal Williams, RB: LIONS

This is more about cementing the fact that D’Andre Swift will fall a tad short of RB1 status. The new regime could easily use Swift more often and better than we saw last year, but Swift was already facing an uphill battle, playing for one of the worst teams in the league. Fortunately, he’s a terrific pass-catcher, but unfortunately, Jared Goff threw to his running backs just 12.0% of the time, while the Lions averaged around 20%. Double unfortunately, Williams is a good pass-catcher and will command a similar share to his work with the Packers, which limits Swift’s ability to reach 18+ touches a week. Swift is a high-end RB2, but catching that RB1 tier is unlikely with Williams in town (and this offense).

Emmanuel Sanders, WR: BILLS

At this point of Sanders’ career, he’s not a threat to Stefon Diggs or even Cole Beasley. However, he does dampen the excitement for Gabriel Davis’ second (and hopeful breakout) season. Sanders will be in every four-wide set, but he could also rotate with Davis in three-wide. Sanders is off the redraft radar without an injury somewhere, and Davis is pushed down to a late-round flier with hopes that he commands all of the three-wide snaps.

Andy Dalton, QB: BEARS

Is this the best quarterback Allen Robinson has ever played with? Well, the past two seasons, Bears quarterbacks averaged 20.5 AVG/Air, 7.9 Air/ATT, 5.5 Air/Comp, 73.6 OnTGT% and 68.4 Catchable% while sending 60.6% of the targets to wideouts and 23.6 attempts per passing touchdown. For Dalton, clearly on the downside of his career, those numbers were 20.3 (-0.2), 7.3 (-0.4), 5.6 (+0.1), 71.1 (-2.5), 67.1 (-1.3), 62.7 (+2.1) and 28.7 (+5.1, which is worse here). So, jokes aside, it’s a pretty lateral move, which means status quo for Robinson. Another season of around 150 targets would keep Robinson in the low-WR1 range.

Hunter Henry, TE: PATRIOTS
Jonnu Smith, TE; Nelson Agholor, WR; Kendrick Bourne, WR

The Patriots are not happy missing the playoffs. Yes, the double-down at tight end feels as if they’re trying to replicate the Rob Gronkowski-Aaron Hernandez days, but that was Tom Brady’s offense, and this is Cam Newton’s (for now). Newton averaged 118 targets per year to Greg Olsen from 2012-16, but that’s far from enough to support both in fantasy.

When it comes to pass-blocking, Henry has a higher career grade according to PFF, ranging from 53.9-79.0, while Smith’s ranges from 36.4-66.0, and 36.4 was last year’s mark. Additionally, Smith averaged 18.8 routes last year, while Henry averaged 32.4, and they had 1.59 Yards Per Route Run and 1.35, respectively. What does this all mean? Cannibalized opportunities for weekly and fantasy production. Henry and Smith will likely finish as fringe TE1s, but their reliability is out the window, and that’s before getting to the wideout additions.

Advertisement

While Agholor likely saw a deeper Air/TGT than he’ll see with Newton, he can step in as the top threat. Derek Carr had a 19.9 Avg/Air while Newton was 19.0, but Newton also had a 53.6 Comp% on 20+ yard passes, while Carr was 46.0%. Carr did have 54 plays of 20+ yards to Newton’s 30, but with a slight uptick for Newton with Agholor in the fold,  Agholor will still have WR4 ability with the potential for a bit more… if Julian Edelman is done in New England. Bourne’s arrival points to Agholor mainly working outside, even if Edelman doesn’t play with the Patriots in 2021. Bourne is more of a slot option, seeing 38.3% of his targets from the slot, even with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Trent Taylor working that area frequently. With Agholor, Henry and Smith though, Bourne is off fantasy radars without an injury in front of him.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB: FOOTBALLS

For realistic options in 2021, this is about as good as it can get for Terry McLaurin and company. Let’s start with this tweet by Ian Hartitz (seeing as how I was going to do the research but he saved me the trouble).

That means McLaurin is set to repeat his massive target share and possibly even see more opportunities (without a major addition at receiver). On top of that, as great as it was to see Alex Smith’s return to football, Fitzpatrick averages over three more Air/ATT than Smith had last year, and even Dwayne Haskins sat at just 6.7. McLaurin can push for WR1 status next year, Kelvin Harmon or Antonio Gandy-Golden could become a WR4 and Logan Thomas will be a TE1 again. Fitzpatrick’s volatility makes him an ideal QB2 in Best Ball, but he can carry streaming value, especially against the NFC East defenses.

Corey Davis, WR: JETS

My immediate reaction? Bleh! Sam Darnold needs to take a big step forward for Davis to repeat 2020, let alone surpass it. Breshad Perriman is gone, but super-deep threat, Denzel Mims, enters his second season, and Jamison Crowder is a target hog and slot machine… when healthy. Crowder led the Jets with 89 targets in 12 games, and Perriman had 60 in 12. Even if we add in Braxton Berrios’ 55, that gives us 115 with Mims clearly increasing his volume, playing just nine games with 44 targets. Davis had 92 targets for 65/984/5 with Ryan Tannehill, and it’s difficult to see him topping that with Darnold. Davis goes from late-career breakout with hope for more to merely a likely repeat as a WR3, which is fine, but also… bleh… for what could have been elsewhere… unless, the Jets shock us with a Deshaun Watson trade.

Jameis Winston, QB: SAINTS

From my “ideal landing spots” piece: “Winston went ham in 2019 thanks to 626 attempts, 5,109 yards and 33 touchdowns. The Saints had just 522 pass attempts, and Winston targeted his running backs just 18.9% of the time, while Drew Brees was second only behind Alex Smith at 28.5% (2019-20).”

Winston will target Alvin Kamara more than Taysom Hill did last year, but it’s still a downgrade for Kamara than if Drew Brees hadn’t retired. However, this is an upgrade for Michael Thomas and whoever the No. 2 receiver and even likely the No. 3 and/or tight end will be in 2021. If it’s Tre’Quan Smith as the No. 2, we have likely have a WR4 floor with WR2 upside. Adam Trautman can break out as a fringe TE1 with Winston under center. The Saints didn’t bring back Winston to this money only not to give him every chance to start. Even if Winston doesn’t get back to 626 attempts, 575 attempts or so can get Winston to 4,600+ yards and around 30 touchdowns with this offense, putting him in the QB1 conversation, easily. Thomas is back to being in the conversation with Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill, and Kamara slides to the second tier of running backs… not a giant slide, but he was in the Top 3 with Brees.

Carlos Hyde, RB: JAGUARS

I know some might worry or connect Urban Meyer dots, but Robinson is safe. Hyde is not a serious threat at this point and simply here to step in behind Robinson… instead of Devine Ozigbo, etc.

Aaron Jones, RB: PACKERS

This came as a bit of a surprise, but Jones is back in Green Bay on a four-year, 48 million dollar contract. We already know Jones’ value, as he’s an RB1 with volatility and touchdown reliance. Over the past two seasons, Jones has seven single-digit games with nine of 20+, including three of 38 or more. As I’ve mentioned many times, he’s a bit like the Will Fuller of running backs. Those three enormous games came with two, three and four touchdowns, and every fantasy score over 12 points came with a touchdown, except one (15.3 in Week 17 on 2019). Just 11 of Jones’ 30 games the past two seasons came with 100+ combined yards. I only mention all of this again to say Jones is touchdown reliant, as the Packers just refuse to let him consistently be a bellcow (also just 11 games with 20+ touches). He’s a great low-end RB1 with Top 5 upside if his complement ever got hurt, and speaking of…

AJ Dillon takes the hit here. Many, including me, were hoping Jones was out the door and Dillon could be the lead. Dillon has some Derrick Henry to him would have been a lock for double-digit touchdowns replacing Jones. Assuming Jamaal Williams is gone, Dillon will be the complement to Jones, and as seen (and mentioned above), he’ll see weekly work, as the Packers share the backfield work. Williams averaged 9.1 and 7.7 the past two years as the Jones complement, and Dillon proved how much upside he has with 21/124/2 against the Titans in Week 16. Dillon is a terrific RB4 with some fringe RB1 potential if Jones missed action.

Advertisement

Breshad Perriman, WR: LIONS
Tyrell Williams, WR: LIONS

Perriman finished the 2019 season on fire, turning it into a one-year deal with the Jets, where he struggled with health and production. Now, he heads to Detroit on another one-year deal, pairing up with Williams, had been a favorite late-round sleeper for fantasy managers given his production level on limited targets for three of his four years. Perriman and Williams will compete to be the Lions No. 1 with Quintez Cephus, Geronimo Allison, Victor Bolden and Tom Kennedy as the only receivers on the roster (you’re forgiven for not knowing the latter two). If the Lions don’t draft a receiver early or sign a bigger name, Perriman and Williams will be Jared Goff’s top options. However, Goff is better in the short-to-intermediate area, which would cap their upside. The target share would help, but as it stands, Perriman and Williams would currently be touchdown-reliant WR3/4s for the Lions with Top 30 upside if either gets 110+ targets (Marvin Jones-like).

Cam Newton, QB: PATRIOTS

We know 2020 was a weird year for sports, and we all watched as no preseason, missed practices and more affected players. Rookies, players changing teams and others returning from injuries took weeks to get back into form. We even saw Antonio Brown take time and not “show up” performance-wise until December. All that said, we should give Newton a pass… somewhat. He got the triple whammy. Newton was on a new team, returned from injury and suffered through Covid. He even admitted missing weeks of practice while trying to learn an entirely new offense was a major detractor.

Now, I’m not suggesting Newton is going to throw 30+ touchdowns and be MVP Cam, but let’s not leave him for dead. On top of that, I think we’d give any quarterback some slight forgiveness for dealing with that awfulness of a receiving corps. The improvements there are yet to be determined, and N’Keal Harry trade rumors are swirling, but even so, Newton rebounding a bit in 2021 is more than feasible. If we take Newton’s six low seasons (ignoring his rookie 4,051 yards and terrific 2015 season), he averages 3,430/21/13 and 112/578/6 rushing (also tossing out his insane rushing numbers last year). That gives us about 289 fantasy points, which would have ranked Newton QB12 and QB14 in FPPG (18.1). I’m not even calling for that in my projections, but using it to point out Newton still has upside left. He’s worth taking as your late-round, flier, second quarterback in hopes that the rushing magic stays and his passing ability returns.

John Ross, WR: GIANTS
Phillip Dorsett, WR: JAGUARS
Keelan Cole, WR: JETS
Lamar Miller, RB: FOOTBALLS
Malcolm Brown, RB: DOLPHINS
Kyle Rudolph, TE: GIANTS

Neither Ross or Dorsett moves the fantasy needle. Both are merely dart-throws in DFS with exploitable matchups, though there could be some seasonal value if anyone were to get hurt in front of either… The same goes for Cole, going from heavy competition for targets in Jacksonville to buried on the Jets… With Miller and Brown, they are just backups and depth. Miller isn’t a guarantee to make the roster at this point of his career but provides a Carlos Hyde in Seattle type veteran backup. Brown isn’t a serious threat to Myles Gaskin, similarly to Hyde signing in Jacksonville. Keep feeling good about Gaskin’s RB2 value… until they draft a true RB1… Unless Evan Engram is moved, Rudolph has zero fantasy value, and even then, he’d still be in the TE2 group.


COWBOYS RE-SIGN DAK PRESCOTT

If we learned anything from 2020, it was that the Cowboys desperately needed Prescott back under center. Simply watching a Cowboys game made this evident, but the numbers and metrics back it up… and then some. On the simple side, the Cowboys averaged 22.8 PPG with Prescott under center and 17.6 without him. Prescott threw for 450 or more yards in three of his four full games, averaging 422.5 passing yards in those four games with nine touchdowns, plus another three rushing (all in Week 2).

Going further into the stats, the Cowboys averaged 6.6 yards per play and 69.6 plays per game with Prescott, who averaged 8.4 yards per pass attempt. Those numbers were 4.8, 47.8 and 6.4, respectively, with the other Cowboys quarterbacks, who topped Prescott’s Week 1 low of 266 passing yards just twice (Andy Dalton with 377 in Week 16 and 285 in Week 13; he tied Prescott’s 266 in Week 6).

If you go super deep with TruMedia metrics, particularly EPA (Expected Points Added — the difference between expected points at the start of a play and its end), the differences are a stark contrast.

Advertisement

EPA with Dak vs. without

PassEPA/Snap: 12.4 vs. -2.0
RushEPA/Snap: 0.7 vs. -4.7
EPA/Snap: 13.0 vs. -7.5

Essentially, there is more than a 20 expected points difference when Prescott is under center compared to anyone else for the Cowboys, and his loss affects both areas of the offense significantly.

You can see the effect with the individual Cowboys as well, starting in the rushing game, with Ezekiel Elliott averaging 2.0 EPA/Snap with Prescott and dropping off a cliff to -18.1 without him, including a boost from 40.4% rushing success to 49.4% with Prescott. With the receiving corps, the table shows the differences across the main four options (not including Elliott).

Interestingly, while Amari Cooper saw more opportunities, Air Yards and a better Yards per Route Run with Prescott, he posted better Yards per Reception, YAC and a higher TD% without him. CeeDee Lamb saw a small TGT% uptick after Prescott, but all of the important numbers were better with him, and you can chalk up more targets to his development as the year progressed. Michael Gallup saw a much higher TGT% without Prescott but also a major drop in YD/REC and Air/TGT. The good news is that if Lamb pushes past Gallup as the clear No. 2 in 2021, Prescott targeting Gallup for the bigger plays can help offset some of the lost targets. For tight end, this is why everyone was excited for Blake Jarwin before his injury. He can be a big rebound pick.

Dak Prescott the Quarterback

The main concern for Prescott is obviously the ankle injury. Virginia Zakas of Inside Injuries broke down his recovery and risk association here:

“Dak Prescott suffered a compound right ankle fracture and dislocation last October. This means that the bone broke through the skin. He was immediately sent for surgery to reduce the joint and stabilize the fracture.

“When we were initially breaking down Prescott’s injury and recovery we gave him a better than 75% chance of getting back to normal if he gave himself enough time to heal. According to our algorithm that means he needs 9-11 months. I still believe Prescott is right on track and has a good shot at being cleared ahead of Week 1. His mobility won’t quite be back to normal early in the season, and he also won’t have a normal offseason, which could hurt him a bit in the short term. The injury should not significantly impact Prescott’s career, but he isn’t going to be the same player early in the season.

“There was also a recent report that Prescott underwent a second ankle surgery in December to strengthen the ankle and do a little cleanup. This may or may not be related to the fracture-dislocation, but either way it doesn’t really affect that 9-11 month recovery time.”

Advertisement

And there is the fantasy football (minor) red flag. Prescott averaged 60 rushes and 305 yards in his first four seasons with six rushing touchdowns in each of the first three, then three in his fourth season. Prescott doesn’t rack up the rushing yards, but the touchdowns boost his value a bit. Fortunately, his low of three rushing touchdowns came with his breakout of 4,902 yards and 30 touchdowns passing. It wouldn’t be smart to extrapolate the first four games of 2020 completely, but for kicks and giggles, Prescott was on pace for 6,760 yards and 36 touchdowns. All the LOLZ for the yards, but the touchdowns are feasible, especially with this group, and Prescott throwing for 4,500 yards would be a decent bet.

So, let’s take my 2020 projections (4601/29/11 and 261/4.5), bump the touchdowns to a reasonable 32 and drop his rushing for a slow start to 200/3. That gives us right about 340 fantasy points. In 2020, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson were the six to top 340 points. Now it comes down to if you want to chase the upside or avoid the risk. For me, and how massive Wilson’s second-half drop-off was after the kitchen was shut down (QB15 after Week 9 in FPPG) and Watson’s uncertainty of team and/or weapons, I’d take Prescott ahead of both. That leaves just four quarterbacks ahead of Prescott, well, wait… I’m betting on a rebound for Lamar Jackson, so that makes five, with Dak Prescott landing at QB6 for 2021.

(Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

Get all-access to exclusive stories.

Subscribe to The Athletic for in-depth coverage of your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs. Try a week on us.

Jake Ciely

Jake Ciely is rankings: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Baseball, candy, movies, video games, cereal... anything! Truly, Jake is a ranking prodigy. Oh, he's also the senior fantasy writer for The Athletic, an award-winning analyst and loves DuckTales. Make sure you #CheckTheLink and #BanKickers ... woo-oo! Follow Jake on Twitter @allinkid