Please note that my prices are for 12-team AL or NL (mono) leagues with a $260 budget. Once in a while you will see that they don’t line up with the rankings, which are for mixed league drafts. In either format, the team that has the most Plate Appearances is going to win the hitting categories almost every time. In mixed leagues of 18 teams or less, replacement Plate Appearances are always available after the draft. They have to be: there are more regular players and lefty platooners than there are roster and reserve slots. Therefore, risky players are not so risky in shallow leagues.
Advertisement
Perhaps the larger point is that there is therefore no linear pricing structure for shallow leagues. Dozens of reasonable gambles, hitters and pitchers, have to cost $1, or — even better — cost nothing as reserve picks, or cost you FAAB money later. This in turn causes the best players — the highest producers in the 10 categories — to be worth more.
So the best players are worth more, and the riskier players are worth more, so what is worth less? Mediocrity. The only real wrong you can do in a mixed league auction is overpay for the mediocrity that is essentially free.
Not so in mono leagues, where mediocrity multiplied is worth a great deal. In mono leagues, when you pay up for premium players, you necessarily create holes in other roster slots. In mono leagues you pretty much have to have a few $1 players, they are all but unavoidable, but the idea is to minimize them, and to maximize even their PAs. Two $20 players are going to beat one $39 player and one $1 player almost every time.
You will also notice that my prices are usually low ball. Not always by any means, but in every price I expect a profit. My prices are not projections of value, although they are based on my projections of a range of reasonable outcomes. In short, they’re bets.
I divide reserve picks into A and B, by priority, although that can change depending on what you need. PFAAB means possible free agent pickup but not enough chance to invest in a reserve pick. If you see $0 (mostly pitchers), it means the guy is a minus player in roto roster value. Draft him at your peril and don’t come crying to me. I want him on someone else’s team.
Here are my previews for the positions already in the books: first base, second base, third base, shortstops. On to the outfield, Pt. 2 (outfield Pt. 1 can be found here):
Avisail Garcia MLW A model of inconsistency who consistently swings and misses too much. Walks up, to no avail.
Advertisement
He has at least some history of good year/bad year, which is this: two powerful forces at odds in the hitter that is Avisail Garcia: 1) he can hit the shit out of a baseball, and 2) he swings and misses way too much. They do battle on the field and the battle ebbs and flows.
I don’t know how much stock to put in this, but I was checking out the “meatball percentage” numbers on Baseballsavant.comand noticed that Avisail had a low 5.8%. The MLB average is about 7% near as I can tell, which in the short season means that he saw nine fewer fat pitches than average. Each percentage point is worth about 22 meatballs in a full season. I don’t know how much it means in the real world, but it ought to mean something and it’s worth researching more. Some basics:
The MLB average meatball percentage is indeed 7.1%, with 94% of hitters within two percentage points of 7.1%. Of the 168 hitters with the most 2020 PAs, the highest meatball %:
- Shonei Ohtani 10.0%
- Paul DeJong 9.4
- Dan Vogelbach 9.4
- Max Muncy 9.3
- Byron Buxton 9.3
- Travis d’Arnaud 9.2
Not, on the whole, a list of guys I’m high on. For all the meatballs, the top four slugged .374 in 2020. Buxton and d’Arnuad were great in small doses. On the other hand, if the bottom guys figure to see 50 more meatballs in 2021 I’m very interested:
- Bryce Harper 4.0%
- Miguel Cabrera 4.5
- Colin Moran 4.6
- Eric Hosmer 4.7
- Eddie Rosario 5.0
- Ryan Mountcastle 5.0
I wondered if the kind of hitters who don’t see a lot of meatballs are 1) hitters who are feared, and/or 2) hackers who will chase. Only Harper qualifies as feared and he walks a ton. The others are below-average walkers as a group but hardly Javier Baez. So this could be a new angle for us.
As for Avisail Garcia, the signing of Jackie Bradley Jr. cuts into his playing time, at least to start. Performance risk plus playing time risk has to knock off several dollars. $9
Adam Duvall MIA He’s 32 years old, that was quick. Your basic high-K/high-FB hitter on the high side of his range lately. If his reduced 25.8% K rate is real he can keep it up, but there are too many Adam Duvall’s around to ever reach for one. And the Marlins might have better options. $8
Magneuris Siera MIA Doing the things he should do in the small sample: taking walks, hitting grounders, using the whole field, strikeouts not bad at 17%. Also played a good centerfield and started there in the postseason, affirming Mattingly’s confidence. Starling Marte is not a good CF but is really good in a corner. Also possible is a platoon role for Siera, which would mean getting into almost all games as a pinch runner, defensive replacement and even lead-off-the-inning pinch hitter. Considering his blazing speed I consider him draftable as a mixed league starter, definitely a #1 mixed league reserve pick if Tim Locastro is gone, and he’s currently the 145thoutfielder off the board. Shh. $8
Josh Naylor CLE Little evidence in the major league record that he can hit, but he’s got a sweet lefty swing, and a 6.6% Sw/Str is that little evidence. He’s got the hefty body that unwise baseball fans like to mock, forgetting their history. The Indians traded for him and played him, and at this time they do not have two better corner outfielders not to mention a DH. Good speculation in AL leagues, good reserve in mixed. May also qualify at 1st base with five games there. $8
Harold Ramirez CLE Missed 2020 to a hamstring, showed hitting ability in 2019. Power limited by his 57% GB rate, a hacker but decent contact so his BA is fairly safe. Could win a corner OF job outright but more likely to get the bad side of a platoon. $8, two less in OBP leagues.
Advertisement
Lorenzo Cain MLW Tiny sample but Sprint Speed, which had fallen from 86% in 2018 to 71.5% in 2019, nosedived to 31.1%. His central skill of BA/OBP looked intact, power down to occasional, playing time often an issue and turns 35 in April. Maybe worth a 5thOF slot in 15-team mixed leagues, pretty much off limits if you employ the At Bat strategy in -only leagues. I do, and I’d bid something on my 120-game standard, no make that 100. It won’t be much. $8
Harold Castro DET Check house rules on eligibility, definitely qualifies in the outfield. Little power/speed but hits for average and will take a walk. One thing is pretty sure: the Tigers don’t have eight better hitters. By conventional wisdom he should be their leadoff hitter. He’s my kinda cheap filler in AL leagues: he does something. Cheap BA/OBP is not that easy to come by these days, and ya know, if a guy can go 6/6 he can go 12/12. Harold might even have mixed league value but more likely he’s a decent hole-filler. $8and may go for a buck.
David Peralta AZ In grave danger of becoming a platoon player before his 34thbirthday, which is in August. He hasn’t hit lefties in a while and last year the OPS was down to .626. $7
Justin Upton LAA Last 105 games over two years: .210/.301/.418 with one stolen base. The barrels and stuff say nothing is wrong, his Ks and Sw/Str were both down if still high, and he doesn’t swing at many bad pitches (26.2%). So why does he look so awful unless he guesses right? Because he guesses wrong way too much? Upton turns 34 in August. Feel free to disagree but I’m betting against the metrics and with the results in this case. Pitchers get him out too easily too often. And ya know, it’s not such great metrics when you only swing at 26.2% O-zone pitches and you still strike out 26% of the time. $7
Clint Frazier NYY I don’t believe that he is the Yankee leftfielder, or rather that he will be on Opening Day. He’s good and if he hit lefthanded I would buy it, but he’s not good enough to be yet another righthanded hitter on that team. I guess we’ll see.
Big jump in walks to 15.6% after three years of 6.5%, along with .475 career slugging, he’s a major leaguer for sure. Maybe they can package him with Miguel Andujar for a decent starting pitcher or a bigger LH bat. $6
Miguel Andujar NYY Plays 2021 at age 26 but has now lost almost two years of development. He’s got the hit tool but does not have the confidence of Aaron Boone. Even with all the Yankee injuries Boone was reluctant to play him. Andujar’s poor fielding doesn’t help. Still has trade value, yet has about zero value to the Yankees as a righthanded hitter without a position. With a fulltime job I’d bid Andujar into the teens no doubt, but right now even bidding $6is betting on a trade, or a major injury which come to think of it we should expect from the Yankee outfielders/DHs. Those who strongly believe in skills over roles might bid higher than $6 and I don’t blame them. He does have the hit tool.
The place to take Andujar is as a deep mixed league reserve. In the last two weeks he hasn’t gone higher than 447 in any NFBC draft.
Austin Slater SF Took advantage of the friendlier hitting environment in San Francisco, but the huge platoon split of 1.127 OPS vs. lefties and .735 vs. righties points to his likely future. $6
Michael Taylor KC The assumption that he holds or even starts with a regular gig is shaky. The Royals have several players and prospects who can be better centerfielders. They signed him sure, but $1.75M for one year is hardly a gotta-play-him move. I go to his .237/.291/.395 line and see nothing out of line, that’s what he is. I can see Taylor as a mixed league reserve although I wouldn’t be thrilled, and I want no part of him in AL leagues unless I get him at a bench player’s price. $5
Brandon Marsh LAA Pardon my heresy but I think Marsh is a better prospect than Jo Adell, at least short-term, based on 1) better contact, 2) better defense, and 3) he bats left. The Angels rather desperately need lefty bats. If the Angles don’t pick up a rightfielder that leaves Marsh and Dexter Fowler, assuming Adell starts in AAA. Marsh is probably worth a high-single digit bid. See what happens. Right now $5.
Harrison Bader STL I’m sorry but he just can’t hit a righthanded pitcher, and it’s not like the Cardinals have jerked him around, he’s had 756 PAs. And for all his lovely speed he doesn’t run that much. I was surprised that Bader continued to be a regular in 2020, so maybe I’ll be wrong again in 2021, but I just can’t see it on a team that’s trying to win. $5
David Dahl TEX The long tale of disappointment continues. Besides the endless injuries, two more factors indicate that Dahl may soon run out of chances: 1) his speed is MLB average, and 2) his outfield defense was atrocious. The Rangers don’t have a lot to lose but we have overpaid four years in a row. A reserve in mixed leagues and a must to avoid in AL leagues unless absurdly cheap. $4
Jared Olivo PIT Speedster may be developing some pop, gets points for perseverance since he didn’t even start on his high school team. Has a chance to start in centerfield and is pretty sure to make the team. Spring watch, right now $4.
Advertisement
Willie Calhoun TEX One basic 2020 truth is that there is no great magnitude to any disaster. Splits are even less meaningful. That said, a road OPS of .338 – not OBP but OPS – is pretty freaking alarming even in 58 PAs. Willie carries the additional burden of bad defense (how anyone ever considered him a 2ndbaseman is a sobering wonder). If he doesn’t hit soon he’ll be gone forever. Significant investment is unwise but nothing wrong with $4on past form.
Sam Hilliard COL Plenty of size and strength, and I’d never have known it to watch him run but Sprint Speed says he’s 97thpercentile. I mean, he doesn’t look slow but faster than Trout and Luis Robert? Anyway, Hilliard can’t make enough contact and is not a defensive asset in the outfield. No Rockie can ever be counted out but optimism is unwarranted.$3
Christin Stewart DET Age 27 but headed in the wrong direction. He’s an automatic out unless you throw a fastball down the middle and a little low. Leftfielders who don’t hit don’t play, and the Tigers appear to have better options. $3
D.J. Stewart BAL Also age 27, the jury is still out. Once the Ks get over 30% a hitter needs massive power, but his Statcast xSLG was .395. Yes, 18% walks take the sting out of his .193 BA, but is that real in 112 PAs when his previous 189 PAs produced 9.5%? If it’s somewhere in the middle, then the OBP is about .330 and the jury remains out. It will depend on the vicissitudes of the high-K/high-FB hitter: if DJ starts hot he holds the job all year, or most of it anyway. If he starts cold he can disappear. I don’t like these guys in AL leagues but worth a reserve pick or possibly a 5th OF slot in mixed, if he has confirmed regular status, which is far from a sure thing now that Trey Mancini is back. $3
Roman Quinn PHI 33.6% Ks, there’s no excuse for that. Also played poorly in centerfield. If he’s a regular the Phillies are in trouble, but doubtful that he will be. $3 is risky, only if you are hard up for speed. Keep looking.
Myles Straw HOU What is it with these little speedsters and their strikeouts? And flyballs? Don’t blame the 86-PA sample, these things should at least not be getting worse. Right now Straw is the centerfielder on the Astros mlb.comdepth chart, a situation that stretches credulity. $3
Stephen Piscotty OAK They only add up to 138 games but that’s two bad years in a row. Strikeouts way up supported by Sw/Str, with a decrease in power at the same time. So he has to be in danger of losing his job. A very deep mixed league reserve and an anti-target in AL leagues.$3
Dexter Fowler LAA Hasn’t been worthy of a regular job in an outfield corner since 2017. Don’t be surprised if he’s on the bad side of a platoon with Brandon Marsh in Anaheim, Fowler is better batting righty in his whole career. $3
Ender Inciarte ATL A career .282/.335/.385 slash might be good enough to play were he a great centerfielder, but -1 Runs Saved in each of 2019 and 2020 indicate that he has lost a lot. $3
JaCoby Jones DET I don’t know if he just had the best 30-game stretch of his career and I have no intention of researching it because he is at best a fourth outfielder for a real team. $3
Aristides Aquino CIN Unimpressive finish in 2019 and 2020 was worse. Again no doubt about his raw power, but now plenty of doubt that he ever gets another full shot. $3
Ryan Braun FA Still somewhat dangerous but now 37 and did not hit lefties. Absolutely guaranteed to miss two games per week. If not the whole week. If he plays at all. $3
Jackie Bradley MLW Great glove, understood, and when he plays for a great hitting team he’s a decent regular. But please note career road slash of .217/.300/.388, in a lot of good road parks. I don’t see how he makes the Brewers better. $3
Tyler O’Neill STL Great defense, yeah yeah, but so far the only pitch he can hit is a hanging slider. His walks were up to 9.6% but only got his OBP to .261. Call me deeply skeptical. $2
Yairo Munoz BOS In and out of lineups for three years now, his slash is .278/.332/.402. Should have a real career as a utility player and some chance to land a regular gig. One of the better $1players in AL leagues. Qualifies only in the outfield to start.
Darin Ruf SF Righty bat. $1
Brett Gardner NYY He can still hit but not every day. $1, make it $3 in OBP leagues.
Nick Markakis FA Helluva career but the warning signs are here there and everywhere, perhaps the most ominous his pVal on the fastball going from +6.6 to -8.0. $1if he signs.
Cristian Pache ATL The Braves like him, they threw him right into the postseason fire. The minor league mavens like him, but that seems largely based on his glove. His bat is a question, at AA-AAA in 2019 his line was .277/.340/.462 with 8 steals and 11 caught stealings. Indeed, in four minor league seasons his SB success rate was 60% despite elite speed. Pache has a nice righty stroke but that’s not enough. It appears he’ll be the fourth outfielder and Marcel Ozuna’s caddy. I’ll take him for a buck but he’s not high on the list.
Daniel Johnson CLE Not-so-highly-touted outfielder, age 25, .284/.344/.460 in 411 minor league games. Bats left. Has a good chance to platoon at some point though scouts doubt his ability to hit at the highest level. Spring watch. $1
Steven Duggar SF Nothing left to prove in the minors, which unfortunately could have been and was said last year. Also unfortunately, he has plenty to prove in the majors after 469 PAs of .236/.281/.349. The Jints will probably give Duggar a chance to play this year at least as a lefty platooner. Not a good bet to do something but some chance. $1
Jay Bruce NYY Might have one more home run burst in him.$1
Jarred Kelenic SEA The Mariners kept him down but I haven’t heard anyone opine that he’s not ready. When they will start the clock is unknown but everyone assumes soon. I never know what to do with blue chippers in this situation and I never get them, but the back-end of the 2021 hitter pool looks so deep that Kelenic looks worth a reach in mixed leagues. With power/speed/BA/OBP potential, at least one figures to manifest. But I refuse to start the season with a hole in mono leagues. #1 Reserve Pick
Franchy Cordero BOS Broken hamate cost him a longer look, again. Now COVID-19 will delay his 2021. Good power, good speed, hinted at plate discipline – he’d be less risky than he appears but for his history. Definitely worth a shot if, and only if, he’s free. Reserve A
Tyrone Taylor MLW Might be the centerfielder or corner outfielder in Milwaukee before long. Nothing outstanding but a little of everything, and he is well-schooled as a high school signee with 806 minor league games. If he stays out of the limelight Taylor is a great reserve pick in NL leagues. If it looks like he’s going to make the team worth a few bucks. Reserve A
Cole Tucker PIT A True Burner but the hit tool is highly questionable. As a first round pick he’ll get a full shot probably now: wherever you look the Pirates need it, whether at his natural shortstop or in the outfield or perhaps 2ndbase. Reserve A if you need speed.
Advertisement
Jo Adell LAA I got trolled last year for saying I would trade him if I were trying to win then. I’d trade him if I were trying to win now. I saw no progress in a hitter who is obviously overmatched. Can crush a meatball, so can everyone else. Great speed but the .212 OBP meant only one (unsuccessful) SB attempt. Oh, and Adell is a disaster in the outfield, at least as of now. There is a good chance that his roto value peaked before he ever hit The Show, as happens so often. Joe Maddon: “He needs more time in the minors, no question.” Reserve A
Nomar Mazara DET The usual “he was pressing trying to impress his new team” won’t wash unless you consider swinging less to be pressing. Ks up from 23% to 29.5% but his Sw/Str was down. Another problem for a hitter with power aspirations was a 55% GB rate against righties. I figure he’ll get about a month to prove himself in Detroit. Not a bad reserve pick in mixed leagues, at worst Mazara will be an easy drop. Too much risk of a bad month and then nothing to be a play in AL leagues. Reserve A
Adam Haseley PHI Groin strain, will miss the start of the season but supposedly not much more. Showed 5-cat potential in college and the minors, has held his own in the majors at .269/.330/.382, not helped by a bad wrist and the short season. There is a fair chance that Haseley is the centerfielder in fairly short order. One thing worries me: he played very well in the outfield in 2019 but poorly in 2020. Reserve A
Jake Fraley SEA All prospects need reps, and it’s possible that baseball sees a decline in the quality of callups in the next few years. But that would depend on what teams did with their prospects during the missed games. If they spent it on personal instruction addressing specific problem areas, they might turn out better.
Lost season for Fraley after thumb ligament issues. He was looking like 30/30 potential but has now missed considerable time every year since 2017, hence the question about his lack of reps. Just 18.5% Ks in the minors but 25 Ks in 70 PAs in the majors, that won’t do. Reserve A
Estevan Florial NYY Centerfield prospect age 23, bats left which they need, speed and power to all fields. Huge strikeout problem that may never be solved, but definitely worth a close eye. Will probably get a long look this year; have a gander at the Yankee outfield. Reserve A
Khalil Lee NYM To the Mets from the Royals, an outfielder who turns 23 in June, .363 OBP with 53 SBs in 129 games at AA Arkansas in 2019. Spring watch, right now Reserve A.
Julio Rodriguez SEA A hairline fracture to his wrist probably contributed to a mediocre showing in the Arizona Instructional League, which he followed up with less-than-mediocre Dominican League stats. So his stock may have fallen, but this is a very serious tools guy who impressed me and many others in the Arizona Fall League of 2019. He’s behind Jarred Kelenic in the pecking order at this time but the Mariners lineup can be cracked. I assume that Rodriguez is taken in your keeper league but if not he’s a #1 target. Reserve B
Justin Williams STL Cardinal outfielder by way of the Rays in the Tommy Pham deal, and before that all over the world since 2013 including Australia and Mexico. Still only 25 and may be putting it together in the high-average, moderate power vein. Williams may not be an irresistible force but then Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader are hardly immovable objects. Reserve B
Yusniel Diaz BAL The O’s are high on his progress from raw 5-tool talent, will get at least a look this year although their outfield looks crowded now. Reserve B
Nick Heath KC Stole 74 bases per 150 games in four minor league seasons, and you know the Royals let their rabbits run. His bat is a big question with contact the problem as usual. Takes a walk, otherwise he’s slash-and-dash. Age 27, not a hot prospect according to anybody, but definitely worth a close eye in March. What the prospect watchers think is often quite different from what the organizations do. Reserve B
Adolis Garcia TEX From Cuba via Japan, major league power and runs well but 30% Ks in AAA do not bode well. Age 28, the Rangers might have an opening in the outfield or DH. Reserve B
Edward Olivares KC Hit a little after the trade to Kansas City, but without major power he needs to stop pulling everything. Swung at too many balls and took more strikes than you might expect from such an aggressive hitter, suggesting that Olivares is fooled too often. These things can change, but not yet apparently as the Royals have already sent him down. Showed 30-SB speed in the minors, but just two unsuccessful attempts in the majors, although his Sprint Speed graded 95th%. Something else to work on. Reserve B
Oscar Mercado CLE A .348 OPS is indefensible in 50 PAs, so 93 PAs is not that small a sample. Prove it, Oscar. Reserve B
Jonathan Davis TOR Blue Jays’ centerfielder, no outstanding attributes but some power, some speed, some walks, might have a career. PFAAB
Monte Harrison MIA Great speed but basically the pitchers said, “Here, hit it,” and he couldn’t. Swung and missed at a 16% clip not to mention falling behind continually by offering at the first pitch just eight times in 51 PAs. He’s a big guy with power when he connects, but in six years in the minors he slugged .400 with 31% Ks. All things are possible in this, the most possible of worlds, but success is unlikely. PFAAB
Travis Demeritte ATL Did not catch the fancy of Ron Gardenhire, not surprising given the 14 Ks in 33 PAs, and it was a problem in 2019 too with a 34% rate. Power and speed, plays at age 26 but it’s probably now or never, if there even is a now. Demeritte’s bar was low with Daz Cameron, JaCoby Jones and Christin Stewart his apparent competition, but the Tigers DFA-ed him in favor of Nomar Mazara. The Braves snapped him up. Worth a few bucks if he makes a team, right now PFAAB.
Daz Cameron DET Besides his DNA and prospect pedigree (37thoverall pick in 2015) there is nothing in his record that indicates a major leaguer, much less a star. The sons of major leaguers often out-perform expectations, true, but let’s see it first. PFAAB
Delino DeShields TEX Just 3 SBs (and 2 Caughts) in 37 games, played some of the worst centerfield I’ve seen in a while in the playoffs. The end is very near if not here. PFAAB
Tim Lopes MLW Promising 11.7% walks in 2019, down to 4% in 151 PAs. Great speed but needs lots of walks because his bat is highly suspect. If he struck out 12% instead of 22.5%, if he was a 62% GB hitter instead of 49.7%, if he learned how to bunt and slash-and-dash, even if he only learned to beat the shift, he might write a different story. As it is, DFAed by the Mariners and picked up by the Brewers. PFAAB
Jordan Luplow CLE A lefty killer in 2019 but a much less impressive .781 OPS in 2020. Sest la guerry. With a career .589 OPS against righties, limited at best. PFAAB
Brett Phillips TB A few years ago he had promise in a minor 5-cat kinda way, now he shows primo outfield defense and very little else. With the Rays where he provides depth, one assumes. PFAAB
Mallex Smith NYM Career may be over, more likely he’ll show up somewhere to fill in for injuries. If you need SBs, you FAAB him and hope. Currently with the Mets. PFAAB
(Top photo: Mike Carlson/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
