In a season with so many recognisable patterns, slowly there are certain things starting to change at Aston Villa.
For so long, Villa knew that if they scored first, typically they would go on to win the game. Well, for only the second time in this campaign, that didn’t happen at Newcastle.
Ollie Watkins, so unlucky on so many occasions in the past, also got a rare stroke of good fortune in the 1-1 draw. There was no controversial VAR decision or the woodwork to deny him this time. In turn, the assistance of a Ciaran Clark deflection gave Villa a goal they didn’t really deserve.
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One trend that remains a constant, however, is Villa’s inability to turn up and show just how good of a team they can be without key man Jack Grealish. Five games have now passed since his shin injury was first detected and Villa have yet to get out of first gear in any of those outings.
Five points from as many games is not a disastrous return. Head coach Dean Smith rightly points out that “17 or 18 others” in the Premier League are also struggling to find their rhythm right now. But there is a concern that unless Villa get moving in the right direction again, this season will soon lose its sparkle.
To be without a player of Grealish’s quality was always going to hurt Villa. In his absence they’ve scored just three goals and, worryingly, four of those five outings have been against bottom-half teams, including rock-bottom Sheffield United and struggling Newcastle.
A team who were previously so attractive on the eye, so entertaining, and so devastating on the counter-attack now look a little predictable and easy to keep out.
Villa were creating an average of 11.3 chances per game in the first 22 games of the season with Grealish in the team. That’s down to 8.8 chances without him.
Shots on target have also dropped.
Other than at Newcastle where Villa tested Martin Dubravka with six efforts, the previous four games without Grealish saw them fall below their average shots on target figure, which now stands at 5.1.
Villa aren’t getting into as many dangerous areas like they were before, either, and when they do there’s a distinct lack of quality. The killer pass is missing and there are fewer passes into the final third and fewer touches into the final third, too.
The biggest difference, though, is how they are unable to catch opponents on the break in the way that was working so well before.
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Villa, so solid in defence, having recorded clean sheets in 14 of the 27 games so far, always had an out-ball in Grealish when they were able to break down opposition attacks. The No 10 could turn a spell of pressure into a quick break up the other end such is his ability to glide past opponents, but we’re just not seeing that any more.
Smith has asked his No 8s — John McGinn and Jacob Ramsey on this occasion — to get further up the pitch and create. Between them, they had just three touches in the box.
There were countless times when Villa got into dangerous positions but couldn’t make the most of the opportunity
Trezeguet jinked inside two players and shot at goal in the first half but it was easily saved. After the break, Ramsey raced forward but couldn’t set Watkins free, who, in turn, complained about the angle of the pass.
Anwar El Ghazi was wasteful when McGinn had found space in a threatening counter-attack, and just before the opening goal, Watkins overhit a cross to El Ghazi at the back post from inside the box.
Those spurned moments came before even mentioning the two chances late on to add a second and seal the win. Grealish, with all his decisiveness in the final third, finds the right pass at the right time and that’s the difference.
Until Villa find an alternative player to get in behind the defence like Grealish does with such ease, or pick out those defence-splitting passes that carve open the game, there will always be a struggle.
The one player who does have similar ball-carrying qualities is Bertrand Traore so losing him after just 16 minutes certainly didn’t help up at St James’ Park.
“It affected us because with Jack not being in the team, he’s one of our more creative players and he takes the ball in any situation and retains possession well high up the pitch,” Smith said. “It was disappointing but I don’t think it was just down to the forward players that it was lacking.
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“I thought the whole game lacked a bit of quality from both sides and I can’t fault the players’ lack of attitude and application.”
So where do Villa go from here and how can they rediscover the spark that made them such a joy to watch earlier in the season?
First, they need to get back to playing with a recognised and in-form No 10. Look at the average positions of the players in the 2-0 win over Newcastle United in the reverse home fixture back in January. Ross Barkley (No 20) is pushed up high alongside Watkins and offering plenty of final-third support in a 4-2-3-1 system.
Compare that set-up to the average positions on Friday night, and it’s clear to see the difference. Villa have reverted to a 4-3-3, effectively losing an attacking outlet in an advanced position.
It was similar in the 0-0 draw with Wolves last week, as the 4-1-4-1 system highlights below.
The sooner Grealish is back, the better, but there also needs to be a way to progress without him. Almost every midfield variation has been tried in recent weeks so it’s not through a lack of change. The wide men have all been given ample opportunities, too.
The time has come for an individual to set the tone and stand up and be counted. There hasn’t been an outstanding performer in front of the defence for weeks, almost months, now. If the current players can’t fix the problem then the long-term solution is to refresh and rebuild in the attacking areas to give Villa a better chance of going the distance next season. Bringing in another striker is also essential, as Watkins cannot continue to be rolled out in every minute of every game.
An even tougher test against Tottenham follows next weekend, so Villa need to realign their focus and come back fighting.
Eleven games remain and the challenge is to finish those as strongly as they started the first eleven.
(Photo: Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
