With NFL free agency set to begin on March 17, this is where you can find analysis of every noteworthy deal that is signed. Some major agreements have been reached well in advance. Many of the top 150 free agents available are set to join the list — and report cards — soon.
Big Board: Current best available free agents
The latest: Updated deals around the NFL
Predictions: Sheil Kapadia’s free-agency forecast
Needs: Holes each team must fill
Spenders: Ranking the salary cap space available
Fantasy: Implications for skill players
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March 12
The Bills’ three-year deal with Daryl Williams
The Bills continued to take care of their own, agreeing to terms on a new three-year contract with right tackle Daryl Williams. The deal was originally reported to be $28.2 million but actually is $24 million.
Buffalo had one of the NFL’s best offensive lines last season, and Williams performed at a high level as a 16-game starter at right tackle. The Bills will now return at least four starters up front, and they bring back all five offensive linemen if they re-sign Jon Feliciano.
The top of the right tackle market was set by Lane Johnson in 2019 at $18 million per season. Last offseason, Jack Conklin got a deal worth $14 million per year. At $8 million per year, Williams is just outside the top-10 for right tackles.
Like the Matt Milano signing, this move makes a lot of sense for Buffalo, and getting Williams to come back at this salary is great value.
Grade: B+
The Patriots’ one-year deal with Cam Newton
Cam Newton is returning to New England on a one-year deal that has a base salary of $5 million, according to NFL Network.
Newton ranked 30th out of 33 quarterbacks in QBR last season. He missed one game in October after testing positive for COVID-19 but made 15 starts. The Patriots went 7-9 and finished 23rd in offensive efficiency.
The case for bringing Newton back is that the Patriots have the cap space to surround him with a much better supporting cast. The offense was below average last season, but it wasn’t a complete disaster. And maybe Newton improves in his second season in the scheme.
And at $5 million per year (with a reported $9 million available in incentives), the Patriots are essentially paying Newton like a backup.
This move gives the Patriots optionality. If they want to draft a quarterback or even sign or trade for another one, they can do so. This is only a one-year commitment. If Newton plays better with an improved supporting cast, that’s a good outcome. If not, the Patriots can try someone else. Bill Belichick’s strategy could be to take multiple swings at QB and see which one connects. | More on Newton’s return from Patriots writer Jeff Howe
Grade: C
March 11
The Bills’ $41.5 million deal with Matt Milano
The Bills’ first major move this offseason was to lock up a core member of their defense. The team is re-signing linebacker Matt Milano to a four-year, $41.5 million contract, according to NFL Network.
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Milano was limited to 10 regular-season games last year because of injuries. But he’s only 27 years old, and durability had not previously been an issue. Milano is a prototypical off-ball linebacker for today’s NFL. He’s a true three-down player with great instincts in coverage and the ability to match up with tight ends one-on-one. We had Milano as the second-ranked off-ball linebacker in free agency, behind only Lavonte David.
In terms of salary, we projected Milano to receive between $11 million and $14 million per year. Had he wanted to maximize his value, Milano could have tested the market. Instead, he opted to go back to the Bills for $10.4 million per year, which is under David’s ($12.5 million per year) new contract with the Bucs.
Good teams lock up their young, core players. The Bills are ready to compete for a Super Bowl in 2021, and having a healthy Milano back in the fold should give a boost to their defense.
Grade: B+
March 9
The Bucs’ $25 million deal with Lavonte David
The Buccaneers took another step towards keeping their Super Bowl roster intact, signing Lavonte David to what amounts to a two-year, $25 million deal.
Per NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo, the contract will include three voidable years at the end. That allows the Bucs to spread out David’s signing bonus and lower his cap hit to $3.5 million for 2021.
Given that the Bucs are defending champs and Tom Brady will be 44 going into next season, it’s perfectly reasonable to go all-in with moves like this. David is 31, and he played at a high level last season. He’s a true three-down linebacker and has played 99 percent of the Bucs’ defensive snaps in each of the past two seasons. He landed at 14th overall and No. 1 at his position in our ranking of this year’s NFL free agents.
The contract is fair for both sides. David’s annual salary of $12.5 million ranks 10th among off-ball linebackers. Had he wanted to test the market, David probably could have gotten more, but given his age and his position, Tampa offered him a fair deal. This was a move that made sense for both sides.
Grade: B+
March 8
The Cowboys’ $160 million deal with Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott was not going to reach the open market. But what was previously unclear was whether he’d play 2021 on a franchise tag or a long-term contract. Now there is an answer. Prescott has agreed to a four-year, $160 million deal to stay in Dallas.
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Prescott had all the leverage, and he exercised it well. He could have played next season on the franchise tag and then hit free agency in 2022. The Cowboys had to incentivize him to sign a long-term deal. Per NFL Network, Prescott will receive a $66 million signing bonus and $75 million in year one of his deal. And he’ll receive $126 million guaranteed. In NFL history, only Patrick Mahomes has received more guaranteed money. Prescott also gets a no-trade clause and a no-tag provision. Bottom line: It’s a home run deal for him.
As for the Cowboys, they cost themselves by waiting until this offseason to get a long-term deal done. They used the tag last offseason and had to pay top of the market this offseason. In the unlikely event that Prescott struggles, their options are limited, given his no-trade clause. And Prescott will have leverage during the next negotiations, given that he will be just 31 when he is scheduled to hit free agency again in 2025.
Having said that, the surest path to sustained success is to build an efficient offense. The Cowboys’ offense ranked third in DVOA with Prescott in 2016, 10th in 2017 and second in 2019. Prescott has completed 66 percent of his passes, averaged 7.7 yards per attempt (YPA) and thrown 106 touchdown passes with 40 interceptions in his career. If we want to go to advanced stats, he’s averaged 0.14 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play over the last three years, according to TruMedia’s model. That ranks ninth out of 44 quarterbacks.
There are no sure things, but as far as huge quarterback contracts go, this should be a relatively safe one. The Cowboys’ offense with Prescott offers a high floor and a high ceiling. And given where the Cowboys were this offseason, they really had only two options. One was to let Prescott play 2021 on the franchise tag, which would have meant potentially losing him next offseason. The other was to pay him at the top of the market. They chose the latter.
The Cowboys should have a top-10 quarterback for the next four seasons, and they can now better chart their course toward Super Bowl contention. But they don’t get any smiley-face stickers, given that they failed to get the deal done in previous offseasons and ended up having to pay at the top of the quarterback market.
Grade: B-
March 1
The Cardinals’ 2-year, $28M deal with J.J. Watt
J.J. Watt found a surprise destination after being released by the Houston Texans. He’ll join the Arizona Cardinals on a two-year, $28 million deal with $23 million guaranteed.
Watt can still play. He was double-teamed at the highest rate (30.1 percent) in the league last season, according to ESPN. Watt finished 2020 with five sacks and 17 quarterback hits.
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But it’s fair to question how the Cardinals are allocating their resources. They ranked 19th in offensive efficiency last season. If they don’t find answers on offense, Watt’s presence is unlikely to make much of a difference in their overall success. And Watt carries plenty of risk. He’s 32 years old, and he missed 32 games due to injury from 2016 to 2019. Would the Cardinals have been better off investing in younger players on the offensive line and/or at wide receiver?
Watt will give the Cardinals’ pass rush a boost, but this seemed like a risky gamble to take, given the other needs on the Arizona roster and the issues the offense had last season.
Grade C-
(Photo of J.J. Watt: Rich Graessle / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
