The Trade
Philadelphia gets: G Petr Mrazek (the Red Wings retain 50 percent of Mrazek’s salary)
Detroit gets: A conditional 2018 fourth-round pick (pick becomes a third-round pick if Flyers make the playoffs and Mrazek wins five regular-season games, or it becomes a second-round pick if the Flyers win two rounds of the playoffs and Mrazek wins six games) and a conditional 2019 third-round pick (Red Wings get this pick if the Flyers re-sign Mrazek).
Advertisement
Philadelphia Flyers: A-minus
Flyers GM Ron Hextall had been in the goalie market for awhile, with the mindset that he was willing to make a move when it was clear he was acquiring someone who was a genuine upgrade over his current situation. That bar became much lower when Michal Neuvirth was injured while playing in place of the already injured Brian Elliott. The Flyers basically needed an NHL goalie who had any track record of success, and Mrazek fit the bill.
After being passed over in the expansion draft, Mrazek seemed to use that snub as a wake-up call this season. He showed up to camp in better shape, and his game has shown better depth management, under the advisement of Red Wings goalie coach Jeff Salajko. Some of the aggressiveness that left him out of position disappeared from his game, and he continued to be the better puck handler of the two Red Wings goalies.
Critics of his game have concerns about his size and his tendency to guess too much. “He’s all over the place,” said one Eastern Conference goalie coach earlier this season.
After a slow start, Mrazek had a strong January (.940 save percentage) and has settled into the .910 range, which is just about what Flyers fans should expect from him. The key here is probably managing expectations.
“He’s played extremely well over the last month,” Hextall said on a late Monday conference call. “I think he’s had some really good times in his career where he’s been a very good goalie where he can be a difference maker.”
That’s true. When he gets confidence and plays with swagger, he can run off a stretch of impressive play. But the Red Wings ultimately didn’t believe he could be counted on to do it for long enough stretches to be a regular starting goalie, and the numbers the last couple of years backed that up.
He’s got the talent to get hot and get the Flyers into the playoffs, which is why this trade makes sense for Philadelphia. He also has playoff experience. Really, there’s no exposure for the Flyers here. If Mrazek flops, all they’re losing is a fourth-round pick.
Advertisement
Detroit Red Wings: C
To really get a true understanding of Mrazek’s trade value around the league, you have to go back to the expansion draft. Part of the Vegas Golden Knights’ strategy was to try and max out every expansion draft pick they made in terms of gathering assets they could stock away for the future. Part of that was doing their due diligence in having conversations around the league with how teams valued players they believed were potentially available.
One of the interesting things they discovered was that goalies didn’t have as much value as they might have initially projected. Essentially, the teams that needed to sign or trade for starting goalies didn’t have a strong preference over who they ended up with. Certainly not enough to give up assets to acquire a goalie like Mrazek.
So an expansion team trying to collect young players passed on a 25-year-old goalie. So did, essentially, the rest of the league.
Since then, Mrazek has played better than he did last year. Whispers about attitude issues have gone away. But he hasn’t done anything to suggest he’s more than a backup at this point, despite being capable of running off wins when he gets hot.
When asked why they traded for Mrazek, Hextall’s first answer was telling.
“No. 1, he was available,” he said.
He was certainly that.
The Red Wings don’t believe he’s a No. 1 goalie. Detroit had no intention of making a qualifying offer on his contract this summer that would cost it $4 million, so he was gone after this season. Detroit had one week to find a taker or lose him for nothing. The Neuvirth injury opened up an opportunity to strike a deal.
That said, Detroit is assuming a bit too much of the risk in this deal. They’re retaining half of Mrazek’s salary and that should have been worth a guaranteed third-round pick. The Flyers have both Elliott and Neuvirth under contract for next season, so the chances of the Flyers sending that second draft pick to the Red Wings seems like a real long shot.
Advertisement
This deal, right now, is essentially Mrazek for a fourth-round pick. Yes, it’s better than nothing, but perhaps the Red Wings would have been better off waiting until closer to the deadline to see if another goalie got hurt on a contender. Really, what was the rush to get a fourth-round pick?
Ultimately, goalies aren’t easy to trade this time of year. They don’t have a ton of value. Contending teams typically are contending because they’re getting good goaltending. It’s usually not a need.
The goalie market was pretty soft, and this trade lines up with established values. For example, Ben Bishop was traded by the Lightning with a fifth-round pick to the Kings last February in return for Peter Budaj, defenseman Erik Cernak and a seventh-round pick along with a conditional pick that never panned out.
Last year, Jhonas Enroth was traded for a 2018 seventh-round pick. Mike Condon netted the Penguins a fifth-round pick from the Senators. In 2016, the Maple Leafs essentially got a conditional fourth-round pick from the Sharks for James Reimer. Reimer had a .922 save percentage that season. This trade is in that range.
The backup goalie market, in particular, isn’t typically a strong one. If Mrazek proves to be more than a backup, the Red Wings built in protection with the conditions. If that happens, however, it’s an indication they picked the wrong goalie to trade.
“Detroit gets a real nice package if we have success,” Hextall said. “For them and the direction they’re going, it’s a good thing.”
(Top photo: Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images)
