On Monday, I released the second of my three 2018 NHL draft rankings at The Athletic. It ranked the class’ top 62 prospects and provided 13 honourable mentions.
Today, I’ll endeavour to answer all of the questions you had in depth. Similar questions are grouped together for clarity and to avoid repetition.
Erik P: Hi Scott, several rankings I’ve seen have Dahlin, followed by Svechnikov, Zadina and Tkachuk (in various orders). Curious why you have Tkachuk down a tier below the other two? Is it you are higher on Boqvist/other D than some others, or are you lower on Tkachuk?
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Honestly, it’s a combination of the two. I’ve always been higher on Merkley, Hughes and Boqvist. That trio has high-end offensive upside and their defensive games have come along enough (with Merkley’s being the biggest question mark) to merit their continued top-eight ranking. Then you have Wahlstrom and Bouchard, who were both lower than Tkachuk on my preliminary list and have since surpassed him. With Wahlstrom, you’re looking at a player who has proven to have more weapons offensively — and a more dangerous knack as a scorer as a result. Tkachuk is at his best when he’s using his above-average skating and size to play a mean, overwhelming game. Wahlstrom can just flat out beat goalies. I was a lot higher than most on Bouchard in October when I last released my list, and his upward progression was natural from that point on. He just keeps getting better and has been so good in the last few months that I couldn’t seriously consider keeping him out of that other tier of top defencemen.
I still like Tkachuk. A lot. He was great at the world juniors, ahead of the curve with his peers in the development program last year, and is having an admirable freshman season. I have no doubt he’ll become an NHL player. I just don’t see the first-line or first-pairing upside the others have now demonstrated.
Dean H: I’m interested in why Jared McIsaac has fallen off a cliff lately, -19 in your rankings? I feel like everything else I’d read prior had him nailed on as a first-round pick.
Gannon B: Quite a fall for Woo, McIsaac and Groulx here. I know you don’t see them as first rounders, but do you think they’ll still be thought of as such in June and thus go in the top 31?
I’ll start with McIsaac. At this point, I still think many scouts are hung up on where he was at the end of last season. He was really good last year, in Halifax and internationally. But I think he’s a second-rounder at this point, and hasn’t taken the kind of steps you’d expect out of a player with his skill set. There’s no question he can score but his decision-making and discipline remain real issues. I still think there’s a good chance he goes in the first round but I need to see him open up his game and become more of a threat off the rush to put him there.
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As for Woo and Groulx, that’s an interesting question. Woo has the talent. He’s an outstanding passer. But he hasn’t been the same player since missing a month and a half with an injury in November and December (he has just six points in 15 games since returning). The Woo of October and November was a first-rounder, but today’s Woo isn’t making plays with the same kind of pace and decisiveness.
Groulx has a couple of things working for him that might allow him to move into the first round. The first, is that he’s a centre. The second, is that he’s viewed as a well-rounded, two-way option with leadership qualities that teams fall in love with. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the trio were taken in the top 31, but they aren’t quite there for me right now.
Theodore B: What are your thoughts on Hallander? I haven’t heard much about him so far.
@JCLCommodities: Could you go into a bit more depth on Kotkaniemi and Hallander?
@Leafs_Storm: I’ve noticed many rankings have Kotkaniemi quite a bit lower than yours and K’Andre Miller as a late first. Do you think K’Andre will go first round and Kotkaniemi top 20? Also, opinions on Serron Noel and Cam Hillis?
Cameron R: Nice list as always, Scott. Curious as to why you have Miller outside of the top 62?
There’s a reason Hallander and Kotkaniemi were both highlighted as my two favourites in the ranking.
Kotkaniemi is just flat-out skilled. He can score, he has size, he’s creative, he’s deceptive with the puck, he finds his teammates in transition, and he’s a strong skater. I loved his game at Five Nations and he is leaps and bounds ahead of his peers in Liiga, where he has fashioned out a top-nine role and has spent chunks of this season on the second line.
Hallander is already an impact player in Allsvenskan, a league I’ve long believed plays at a higher level than it’s given credit for. He has also come along really quickly and has a June birthday, which makes him one of the younger players in my top 62. He’s a couple of years away but I still think he has another gear to find. There’s no question in my mind as to whether he’s a first-rounder at this point. He’s more of a scorer than a passer but I like the way he sees the ice too. And he has played all three forward positions successfully.
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Miller is an interesting prospect, there’s no question. He was just outside my top 62 in large part because I’m not convinced he has the necessary offensive gifts to become an NHL defenceman. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a late first-rounder, if only because teams want to work with big defencemen who can skate (he’s an excellent skater for his size) and he’ll have plenty of time to work on the rest at Wisconsin.
Noel and Hillis are both fascinating in very different ways. We haven’t seen a forward in a long time who, at 6-foot-5, can skate like Noel can. He needs to become more than a shooter but he also handles the puck deftly. Hillis lives at the other end of the spectrum: a weak, on-the-small side forward who can play on the perimeter a little too much but who’s crafty enough as a handler that he finds ways to finish off plays or create chances for his linemates. With Hillis, I think you’re looking at a kid who will have to switch from centre to the wing at the pro level.
Nolan K: Hey Scott, just wondering what your opinions are on Blade Jenkins, Curtis Douglas and Caleb Everett because all of them are putting up decent points but not many have been ranked high in some rankings?
I’m not high on Jenkins. He has decent size and OK skill. He was a star with Compuware during his OHL draft year but hasn’t progressed all that much since. He’s a good player for Saginaw but I’m actually higher on teammate Damien Giroux. Jenkins has age and size on his side, which is huge. He’s a late birthday in this class, so maybe there’s more on the way. He’s more of a mid-round pick for me, though.
Douglas is a freak of nature and the biggest player in this class. He has been given an increased role in Windsor but I really liked him in my live viewings in Barrie earlier this year too. Douglas’ problem is that there’s no denying a lot of his success is driven by how damn big he is at the OHL level. He’s an effective centre who moves all right but I question his ability as more than a chip-and-chase cycle player at the next level. He’ll definitely get drafted, and could go high given his raw tools.
Everett is a decent defender on a bad team but he’s not going to be star. I have him pegged as a late-round pick and he’s almost certainly not going to be in the mix for my top 100 in May.
Casey S: Can you rate prospects by name? I think Bode Wilde is winning.
- Nando Eggenberger
- Shaw Boomhower (especially because he takes a ton of penalties)
- Jett Woo
Bode Wilde is also a great name.
Tyler A: NHL Central Scouting had Patrick Giles as its No. 19 North American skater. Corey Pronman didn’t have him ranked. You don’t have him ranked. And Bob McKenzie’s mid-season rankings have him outside the top 93. Why such a stark discrepancy from what the NHL has and scouts around the world? Thoughts on Giles as a prospect?
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Giles is a big kid who can make an impact down the middle when he’s at his best and using decent puck possession ability to drive the net, but I don’t think he’s a top-100 prospect and I suspect he’ll struggle to find an offensive role at Boston College. I’d bet the discrepancy is driven by size bias.
Brandon F: What’s keeping Anderson MacDonald out of the top 62? Is it the attitude issues? Just curious as he’s fallen out of most scouts’ top two rounds.
He cheats for offence and it hurts his line defensively, he doesn’t get his linemates involved, he takes too many shots and he’s a mediocre skater. You put those things together, and you’re going to be in tough to progress further than your natural gifts will allow you, even for a player with MacDonald’s pedigree in minor hockey and as a rookie in the Q last season.
Adam K: Great article as always. I’ve been following David Levin’s career pretty closely because of his unique story and I’ve been seeing a third round grade on him. Thoughts?
Levin is one of the nine players who fell out of the ranking. I was always higher on him than most. He has shown real signs of dominance and he’s decently athletic, but it just hasn’t progressed in a Sudbury program that has done a poor job making that happen in the last few years. He’s also a September 1999 birthdate, so you’d like to see more than second-line production by now in the OHL. You’re probably looking at a late third-rounder — at best — at this point.
@cambabs17: Who are the players from the top 13 or so who could fall to the later half of the first round?
@O_S_H_U: I am curious how far Merkley drops, and generally, the players you think are most likely to fall out of the first round.
I think Merkley and Kotkaniemi are the likeliest to become sleepers of sorts on draft day and slip to a team in the teens. Merkley may fall even further. Given his reputation, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s still on the board in the 20s or 30s.
Kurashev and Gustafsson likely fall as well. I’m higher on both than most and Kurshev will likely have QMJHL bias (which is absolutely real, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise) working against him.
@HardevLad: Who will the Leafs most likely go after?
@callmedrewokay: Best defender that a team drafting in the 20s should look at?
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It’s tough to answer questions like this at this point in the draft season. These kids can still change a lot in the next few months. Some could plateau while others could add another weapon or two to their arsenal. If we’re assuming the Leafs are drafting in the 20s, then I suspect they’re the kind of team that might steer clear of wingers — given where their depth is at. If that’s the case, I think Hallander, Hayton (though I know some scouts are higher on him, so he may be gone), Olofsson and Gustafsson make sense down the middle, while defencemen like Rasmus Sandin and Jonathan Tychonick could be intriguing. That also kind of answers the second question, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see a defenceman like Wilde or Addison fall, in which case you have to adjust.
@RobFerguson52: Why isn’t Svechikov No. 1? Isn’t he more dominant?
@JxredNHL: What separates Hughes from Boqvist? And could Hughes possibly be NHL ready next season? As a prospect who did you prefer, Laine or Svechnikov?
Svechnikov is a force and the kind of winger who could become a perennial all-star, but the gap between Dahlin and the rest of the pack has actually become more — not less — pronounced as the season has gone on. As for Svechnikov versus Laine, that’s an interesting question. At the start of their respective draft years, I definitely would have said Svechnikov was further along and had more tools to offer. But once Laine’s skating came along, he elevated into a tier of prospects that I’m not sure Svechnikov has risen to yet.
The biggest difference between Hughes and Boqvist lies in Hughes’ ability to defend. It really has become a strength of his game, despite his size. Boqvist can’t yet say that. With that said, to answer the second part of your question, I don’t think Hughes will make the jump next year. He’s already ahead of the curve in NCAA but there’s no need to rush him — though I doubt he finishes all four years.
@jlewisPEI: Thoughts on Fonstad this year?
I like Fonstad a lot. The NHL is getting smaller but when you’re as small as Cole you’ve still got to be extremely talented to make that jump. I think he might have it in him. He’s already a plus-skater, carrier and creator. I’d like to see him shoot more, but he’s the kind of player who could post 90 points in the WHL next year.
Doodie M: As weak as this draft is at centre, do you see Joe Veleno (your top rated pure centre) as more of a second-line centre or could he be a first-line player? Are there any players that project as true No. 1s?
That depends on your definition of No. 1 centre. Is Joe Veleno going to become a 70-point player? No. But I could see him become a dependable 50-plus point guy and that qualifies him as a potential No. 1 centre in my eyes. Still, he’s more likely going to be a No. 2 or 3 centre with speed and playmaking ability with shooters on his wings.
Kotkaniemi is another natural centre with that kind of upside too. After that, it’s slim pickings.
@RYANH1LL: How close do you think Zadina is to taking No. 2?
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I still have Svechnikov as the clear No. 2. That isn’t to say Zadina isn’t close. He is. But they would have been in the same tier if I thought I might have Zadina jumping past him between now and May. I don’t. What I could see happening is Zadina establishing himself as a clear No. 3 over Hughes and turning that tier of two into a tier of one.
@Fishingfreak99: Which of the players that you have ranked 32-64 do you think has the biggest potential to climb the rankings/outperform their draft slot?
Serron Noel and Jake Wise have the widest gap between their ceiling and their floor. If either of them reach their ceiling, they’ll be stars — and thus will have outperformed where I have them at No. 36 and 48 respectively. Wise is so, so gifted as a playmaker but needs to get stronger and develop his shot. He’s one of the best passers in the draft. Noel is an effortless skater with size and a big release.
If I missed your question, or you have another, leave them in the comments below and I’ll be sure to reply.
(Top photo: Dave Reginek/Getty Images)
