The 2020 season was a mere 60 games long, yet the Texas Rangers still made it feel like it dragged on a bit. Their record was 22-38, which doesn’t even jump off the page like it should. We have a normal scale for things like this: Bad teams lose close to 100 games. We know they finished with the worst record in the American League, but “38 losses” still doesn’t quite land. We have to extrapolate. Twenty-two wins in a 60-game season is a .367 winning percentage. Over 162 games, that would equal between 102 and 103 losses.
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There we go. That matches how it felt.
But Isiah Kiner-Falefa has a point of rebuttal he would like to share.
“You look at our division, everyone’s kind of receding a little bit. We’re on the come up,” says the new starting shortstop. “If you actually look at last year and 2019, we’re a really good team. I think it got to the point — it was the San Diego series last year where we got swept, but every game was close. But until that point, we were right in the mix … we were in the playoff hunt. And right after that series is when we decided to go young.”
They also had a losing record, but his point isn’t completely wrong, either.
So let’s consider: Are the Rangers better than outside projections are giving them credit for? Let’s go position by position and see what we find.
Catcher
OUT: Jeff Mathis
IN: Jonah Heim
NEXT: Sam Huff
Jose Trevino is finally getting his time to shine after banging his head against the backup ceiling for the last few years. His defense has never been in question, and his offense has undergone a lot of work in the last two offseasons. This will be a season for the Rangers to figure out what they have so Trevino will get the majority of starts — though that may not be a huge majority. The truth is, if Huff’s small 2020 sample size is to be believed, he looks poised to be the next franchise catcher once his hamstring heals and his defense is fully ready to go. Whether that’s in 2021 or 2022 is to be determined, but for now, let’s see what they’ve got in Trevino and Heim.
First base
OUT: Ronald Guzmán (sort of)
IN: Nate Lowe
NEXT: Curtis Terry
One of the biggest questions going into camp was whether the first-base job would go to Lowe, acquired this offseason in a trade with the Rays, or the newly resurgent Guzmán. Lowe won the battle, but with no full-time DH to start the season (more on that later) we got an interesting tidbit from manager Chris Woodward on Tuesday before the team’s final exhibition game:
“I think I’m definitely gonna keep Lowe at first even when Guzy is DHing sometimes,” Woodward said. “I just think it’s fair to Nate; he’s worked hard on his defense. If it were a one-game playoff, I’d probably put Guzy over there because he’s a better defender, but Nate has earned that role.”
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It’s a small look into the philosophy of this season — while, yes, Woodward wants the team to compete and win as many games as possible, this is not the year in which they’re going to mash down the gas pedal and go for it. Instead, there’s going to be a lot of evaluation happening. Is Lowe the first baseman of the future? They have to play him there to find out.
Second base
OUT: Rougned Odor
IN: Nick Solak
NEXT: … Justin Foscue?
Let’s take a minute and revel in the fact that I totally called this — a point I am only bringing up because I really need you to remember it when we get to the third-base section. Solak is the guy at second base, and the biggest difference between his circumstances and Trevino’s is that nobody is banging on the door to take over the second-base job right now. Until now, Solak had been the one knocking. He showed great promise in 2019 but was one of the guys who struggled in last year’s shortened season. The consensus is that he’s going to hit; now he’ll have a chance to show it.
Shortstop
OUT: Elvis Andrus
IN: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
NEXT: Anderson Tejeda (… maybe?)
The exit of franchise players tends to be a signature move of any rebuild, but that didn’t make the departure of Andrus any less heavy. Fortunately for the Rangers, they have a guy in the wings who could be a fan favorite for years to come. Kiner-Falefa won the third-base job last year, then won a Gold Glove, and his humble-but-chippy attitude is the sort of thing that tends to engage fans. If he can hit like he did this spring — and last spring — it will make for an interesting decision: Do the Rangers go after one of the superstar shortstops that are set to become free agents after this season? (If so, Kiner-Falefa might be the next man up at second base.) Or do they stick with Kiner-Falefa and spend that free-agent money elsewhere?
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Third base
OUT: Kiner-Falefa; Odor
IN: Brock Holt; Charlie Culberson
NEXT: Josh Jung
You really don’t have to click that top link. Until a couple of days ago, it seemed like Odor was the odds-on favorite to claim the job. Instead, as the team was boarding a flight to Texas, news came that he didn’t have a guaranteed spot on the roster. The next day, the front office confirmed Odor’s time as a Ranger was over. For now — unless there’s one more roster surprise and Andy Ibáñez boards the flight to Kansas City — it looks like the bulk of the playing time will go to hometown hero Holt and “Charlie Clutch” Culberson. But all of this feels like a placeholder: Jung has done nothing but impress since joining the organization, and despite a stress fracture in his left foot that required surgery, it seems like a foregone conclusion that he’ll be in Arlington before the end of the year — and for years to come.
OUT: …Willie Calhoun?; Solak
IN: David Dahl
NEXT: Look, it has been a carousel for a while, who knows — Guzmán? Eli White?
Part of the reason there’s not a solid answer for who is “out” is that the Rangers haven’t really had anyone in for quite some time. Remember Mike Napoli, left fielder? Calhoun will still get some time out there (as will White), but the Rangers expect Dahl to be the answer, signing him as a free agent after the Rockies non-tendered him this offseason. Dahl’s injury history is certainly concerning, so even “full time” might only mean 110-120 games at the position, taking a day at DH here and there. Meanwhile, Guzmán took a fair number of reps in left and right field this spring; don’t be surprised to see him get time out there.
Center field
OUT: Danny Santana; Solak
IN: Leody Taveras
NEXT: White
The assumption was that Taveras would be the starter, and that still seems to be the outcome. But there was a time in camp where it was far from assured. White is also an above-average defender and should get regular playing time as a fourth outfielder, but Taveras has long been considered the heir apparent in center field. His defense is, to use a Chris Woodward favorite word, elite. Can the switch-hitting prospect hit well enough to justify keeping him in the lineup? The Rangers are hoping so, but if it doesn’t happen this year, it’s not like it will be the thing that keeps them out of the World Series. Whether he starts 162 games or spends time in Triple A, the biggest goal is to keep him healthy and continue to develop the player the team hopes will be in center field the next time the Rangers are in a World Series.
Right Field
OUT: N/A
IN: Joey Gallo (still)
NEXT: Adolis García; Guzmán
Gallo won his first Gold Glove at the position last year but had a down year at the plate. He lowered his launch angle a little bit and seems to be off to a brilliant start in 2021, if spring training numbers count for anything. With Andrus and Odor gone, he’s now the longest-tenured member of the team, having debuted about a month before José Leclerc in 2015. (Here’s some trivia: Matt Bush is actually the last member of the Rangers’ last playoff squad, since Gallo and Leclerc were left off the ALDS roster in 2016.) Gallo has prodigious power, but will he get an extension and become a building block for the next few years? Will he be traded as the last act of a rebuild? We’ll see!
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Designated hitter
OUT: Shin-Soo Choo
IN: Khris Davis; Calhoun
NEXT: Curtis Terry? Ibáñez?
Davis and Calhoun are out with injuries, so Woodward says the DH spot will initially be used as a rotating “get a guy off his feet on defense for a day” spot for Guzmán, White, or whichever one of the Holt/Culberson duo isn’t at third base that day. When Calhoun gets back, he’s certain to get a lot of at-bats. The question is whether the team will keep Davis on the roster. If he’s healthy and playing like his old self, he’s the sort of hitter they could use.
The back half of Woodward’s quote about Lowe and Guzmán at first base is relevant here:
“It’s the same thing in the outfield with Eli (White) and Dahl and Gallo and Taveras,” Woodward said. “I don’t think every time Eli plays that it’s always gonna be one of those other guys at DH — whether it’s Joey or David Dahl … I want to make sure that they take pride in their defense and getting them out there, getting them the reps is important. Just as much as is hitting is a timing thing, defense has a rhythm and a flow to it as well, so keeping them sharp is really important.”
Starting rotation
OUT: Lance Lynn; Mike Minor; Corey Kluber (and to a lesser extent, Kolby Allard and Kyle Cody)
IN: Mike Foltynewicz; Kohei Arihara; Dane Dunning, and it gets complicated after that
NEXT: Cody; Allard; Brock Burke; Cole Winn; Hyeon-jong Yang
The Rangers are employing two “tandem” spots this season, so the first five games will go like this: Kyle Gibson, Arihara, (Lyles plus another guy in a tandem/piggyback situation), Foltynewicz and (Dunning plus another tandem guy). As of right now, the candidates for those other two tandem spots are Wes Benjamin, Taylor Hearn and John King, and if I had to guess, that’s exactly the order I’d put them in. Benjamin with Lyles, Hearn with Dunning, King to the bullpen.
Woodward said he hopes that one or both tandem spots will eventually revert to a more traditional starter’s role, which would mean that someone has stepped up and performed to a level worthy of earning it.
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Bullpen
OUT: Luis García; Jimmy Herget; Nick Goody; Rafael Montero; Jesse Chavez; Ian Gibaut; Edinson Vólquez; Luke Farrell; Juan Nicasio
IN: Ian Kennedy; Josh Sborz; Brett de Geus; Cody; Bush
NEXT: … it’s complicated, but for now let’s say Alex Speas just because it’s fun
I just listed nine guys who are no longer with the organization and are decidedly out. I followed that with three guys who are new to the organization, one who was a starter last year, and one who hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2018. Add those five to the “seven-man rotation” and you’ve got at least one spot (whichever lefty doesn’t land a tandem spot) and perhaps one more if the team opts to keep Hunter Wood or Yang as a 14th pitcher instead of Adolis García as a right-handed bench bat.
But here’s why it’s complicated: Brett Martin, Joely Rodríguez, Jonathan Hernández, Demarcus Evans and maybe Joe Palumbo (though he’ll remain a starter for now) are set to return at some point this year. That’s four or five guys who will bump someone from the roster. And that’s not counting Leclerc, who is undergoing Tommy John surgery.
So there we are. How do we feel about this roster?
Last year, around mid-February, I took to answering questions about the team by saying I thought it could break either way. If the trio of Lynn, Minor and Kluber had lived up to their potential (and Gibson and Lyles had done the same), and if each of the Rangers’ offensive starters played at a level matching their best years to date, I thought they could be a wild-card contender.
Alternately, I left the possibility open that nothing could go right and they could lose 100 games. The latter ended up being true, though — as Kiner-Falefa pointed out — the team was technically in contention for that wild-card spot until they leaned fully into the youth movement.
This year, I think the variance is much less. I don’t think the Rangers will contend for a playoff spot, but I don’t think they’ll be the worst team in the American League, either. If I had to make a prediction, I’d guess they win between 75 and 79 games.
No, that’s not particularly hopeful if you’re looking for a winner from the home squad.
But hey, at least it’s better than 22.
(Photo of Joey Gallo: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
