Halfway through the season it felt like the Maple Leafs were in a rut. They were playing at a 95-point pace, but not looking anywhere close to as good as many expected. That’s changed in the third quarter where they’ve been red hot, going 14-4-3 to jump to a 104-point pace and a 37-20-5 record, good for the third-best in the East (and also their own division).
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A large portion of this latest stretch has been percentage driven as their differentials are middling, while their PDO has been the league’s highest. The Leafs aren’t this good, but it’s hard for fans not to get excited about the raw talent on the team and how well they’ve played of late. Yes, they need to limit chances from their opponents and not rely so heavily on goaltending, but this has always been a team that could outscore their problems. That’s been on full display over the last 21 games.
That’s led to some big bumps from where the team was trending during the second quarter. According to data collected from the report card feature on The Athletic app, the average editor grades (aka, my view of each player) has jumped from 2.89 to 3.12 while the average fan grade has improved from 2.96 to 3.17.
My projections model has noticed, too, and now rates the Leafs as a borderline top-five team with an expected win percentage of .541 (.548 if you replace Roman Polak with Connor Carrick), up from .518 at the end of the second quarter. That’s a big swing and puts them a little closer to the two teams ahead of them in the Atlantic: Tampa Bay (.587) and Boston (.572), though the difference is still sizeable. There’s still room to grow – plus there is the trade deadline next week – but this recent surge makes it look much more likely the Leafs can put up a decent fight against the two juggernauts of the East. Their chances in a series against either team would be more than 40 per cent now against either team.
Their play in their last 21 games deserves a lot of praise, but so too does a recent effort to optimize the lineup. That’s why the MVP of the last quarter isn’t a skater or a goalie – it’s the head coach.
MVP
Mike Babcock: Gotta give credit where credit is due. The Leafs head coach recognized an issue and fixed it. That issue —weird lineup choices and usage as outlined here — was his own doing, but that problem has since been remedied. Leo Komarov’s minutes were severely cut after he was demoted to the fourth line. Mitch Marner is now lighting it up with Nazem Kadri. Connor Brown is in the top nine. Kasperi Kapanen is finally playing with the big club. Matt Martin is watching from the press box, finally giving the Leafs four skilled lines. It’s something many have been clamouring for the last year and a half. The effect has been glorious. The Leafs are 11-2-0 since the changes, and while their record is not entirely because of lineup optimization, it’s surely a big part of it. It took longer than many would’ve liked, but Babcock recognized his own faults, made the necessary changes and it paid instant dividends.
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Great
As usual, Matthews has been great and he’s the straw that stirs the drink for the team up front. His Game Score of 0.97 led all skaters thanks to his 10 goals (a team lead), 18 points (tied with Kadri, William Nylander and Jake Gardiner) and plus-13 at 5-on-5 (team lead). His line didn’t overwhelm others with shots, but they did with goals as both Matthews and Nylander have been torching opposing teams with some big games. Eight of Matthews’s 21 games have been five-star efforts, easily leading the team, and when he’s on, he’s on. The problem of late is that the times when he’s off have been more frequent. Games against Boston, Nashville and Columbus saw Matthews and his line struggle heavily at 5-on-5, worse than they have all season. It’s uncharacteristic and it seems to align with difficult matchups. He got cleaned out by Patrice Bergeron (+2/-9), Ryan Johansen (+2/-12) and Nick Foligno (+2/-18) in those three games as Babcock has started using him in tougher situations (OK, maybe Foligno doesn’t really count) now that Marner has taken Komarov’s spot on the matchup line. It’s a necessary step for his development and something he needs to master, but the new role has made him look less consistent — though still amazing — than usual.
The Leafs best defender over the last 21 games has without a doubt been Gardiner. Not only did he lead all Leafs defenders in points, but he tied for the team lead with Matthews, Kadri and Nylander. He was third among all defenders in points behind only Brent Burns and John Klingberg. That’s really good company. There were still a few times where he had some classic Jake Mistakes™, but that matters a lot less when you’re dominating games as much as Gardiner has recently. He had a rough start to the year, but he’s back to looking like the player who vaulted to the top of Toronto’s depth chart at the end of last season.
Not as downright dominant as he was in the second quarter, but still excellent nonetheless. He’s faced tougher challenges now that the Leafs are running and gunning more. A 40-save shutout on Tuesday against Florida pushed him from a .919 save percentage this quarter to a .925. He’s been a big reason for the Leafs success of late and is firmly entrenching himself in the Vezina Trophy conversation.
As it turns out, playing with Marner instead of Komarov is a big deal. (Big surprise there…) Kadri has been really hot lately with 16 points in his last 13 games to lead the team during that span. It finally looks like he’s back on track after a really rough go during the second quarter. He has seen the biggest jump across the board from quarter-to-quarter. Meanwhile, Kadri and Marner have shown some incredible chemistry, giving the Leafs two deadly duos on each of their top two lines. That’ll be hard for other teams to contain down the stretch.
With 18 points, Nylander was part of the four-way tie for the team scoring lead over the last 21 games. Lately, he’s looked like he’s playing some of the best hockey of his young career. His 12 assists were second only to Gardiner, and his nine primary assists led the team. He also led the team in penalty differential (yes, even more than Kadri) at plus-six thanks to his ability to escape with the puck and his penchant for carrying it. He’s been excellent.
It was only a matter of time before Marner started scoring. That time has come as he has nine goals in his last 21, just one behind Matthews for the team lead. The lineup shake-up helped, as Marner has looked a lot better next to Kadri than he did next to Tyler Bozak. The two have been sensational together. A five-point game against Ottawa was the pinnacle as Marner absolutely dominated, posting the highest Game Score for any Leaf since 2007-08 (yes, even higher than Matthews’ four-goal debut). The big thing for Marner is he’s finally shooting more. He’s always been a pass-first player, and that’ll never change, but it’s good to see him firing more pucks on net. He averaged just under three shots per game in the third quarter, up from 2.1 in his previous 41 games. That’s a big step up and a huge reason why he’s been finding the back of the net with increased regularity.
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Good
Things really started to pick up for the Leafs once Dermott became a regular for the team, and fans have been completely enamoured by his play. He hasn’t been rated below 2.5 stars once by fans, even on nights where he arguably deserved a lower grade. Andersen was the only other Leaf to be rated as consistently high. With an average rating of 3.6, he was actually the highest rated defender by fans over the last quarter, though editor rating and Game Score both had Gardiner higher. It’s hard not to love his game as he gets involved with the play, contributes well on offence and pushes play in the right direction. The Leafs have a good one here.
Van Riemsdyk is tied for third in team goals with eight, though he had just three assists for a lowly 43-point pace. Considering how many minutes he plays, that’s actually pretty impressive, as are his 71 shots, which lead the team. There’s been a divide all year between his results and fan perception. It’s easy to see why as he tends to disappear for long stretches, but through the third quarter, he’s looked consistently solid at the very least and that gap between fan and editor grades is slowly beginning to close.
The engine that makes the top line work had another solid showing over the last quarter. But his numbers are a bit different. In fact, he looked better before the Leafs’ latest surge instead of during. Hyman had 10 points in 21 games, which is a decent amount for a player of his calibre.
Like van Riemsdyk, the divide between perception and production is large with Bozak. He did well over the last quarter with 12 points in 21 games, good for sixth on the team. Not bad for a third-line centre who also drove play better than most and contributed a positive goal differential. He’s not the sexiest player on the team, and I get why many are down on him, especially defensively, but to his credit, he’s been good lately.
Fine
Since returning from injury against Boston, Rielly has not looked like himself. He has had a 0.23 Game Score and scored an average rating under three stars from both the editor and fans in this quarter. Aside from a return to form against Ottawa, his last nine games have been less than impressive. Yet, in his six previous games, he looked like the legit No. 1 defender he has looked like for most of the season, and that’s why he lands in the “fine” category. Still, he’s been far away from that level in recent games and hasn’t been tilting the ice nearly as much as usual.
While his linemates are running roughshod over every opponent, Marleau has been much quieter, like a solemn senior supervisor making sure everything operates smoothly on his watch. It seems as though he’s sort of just there while Kadri and Marner do their thing, sometimes helping out, but often fading to the background. He’s been perfectly fine at that still, averaging a 0.55 Game Score. It is a little curious, though, that his linemates have 16 and 14 points over the last 13 games and he has just eight. He only had one in the previous nine before that, too.
Quarter two was a nightmare for Brown, but it looks like he’s slightly back on track now. Slightly. He’s improved on his four-points-in-20-games stretch to seven points in his last 21. Baby steps. But what’s encouraging is that five of those points came in his last nine games. The third line has been solid since Brown’s arrival and he gives them a much needed defensive presence.
Like fans, I love what Kapanen has brought to the table for the Leafs. He’s electrified the fourth line into a competent part of the lineup, but I do think we need to pump the breaks a little bit. In his last 13 games with the big club, he has three points and 16 shots. While the context of his minutes and who he plays with is important, I don’t think his impact has been in line with the buzz around him. He’s flashy, fast and can create offence in an instant so he passes the eye test, but he hasn’t really done enough yet to warrant higher praise or a spot further up the lineup either, as tantalizing as it might be to think about.
It would be nice if Carrick could actually get into the lineup over Roman Polak for peak optimization, but we can’t win ’em all, apparently. Carrick has been solid in his third-pair role recently and had the highest Corsi of any Leaf over this period. It’s no coincidence that Dermott’s numbers rise with Carrick and take a nose dive with Polak.
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Poor
Like Rielly, there’s a divide between before and after injury for Hainsey. Prior to his injury, his average Game Score was 0.38 with a 2.8/3.1 editor/fan rating. Since then, he’s at -0.05 with a 2.2/2.3 rating. Not a great development for Hainsey, who’s been getting routinely outshot lately. Coupled with the downward trend for Rielly, I wonder if the duo is playing at 100 per cent health right now (they did get injured and come back around the same time). It sure hasn’t looked like they are.
One of the best things the Leafs have done recently is demote Komarov to the fourth line, doing wonders for their top nine. Now, he’s just as noticeable as he was before (barely), but with around four minutes less of ice time. He’s been perfectly cromulent as a fourth liner, a role he should’ve been in much earlier.
There is not a single player on this team as forgettable as Moore. On most nights, he barely does anything noteworthy. Just like last year, fourth-line centre is where the Leafs could best use an upgrade. And no, that does not mean Luke Glendening, because yes it is possible to downgrade from Moore and that would be it.
Awful
Yeah, yeah, Polak is decidedly not good. He should not be a lineup regular. He shouldn’t even be in the lineup. Period. Fans can’t even give him two stars on average. It’s bad. Let’s not beat the dead horse any more than we have to, though. Let’s talk about the positives, instead. Polak’s penalty differential last quarter was zero. Zero. Z-E-R-O. Meaning, he took as many penalties as he drew. When I saw this I was at a loss for words. I was flabbergasted. Old dogs can learn new tricks apparently and I’ve got a lot of respect for Polak cleaning up his game.
Tuesday night’s game was what many want to see more of from Zaitsev and what many expect from a guy the team committed $31.5 million over seven years to. That hasn’t been the case at all this season and he’s been even worse since coming back from injury. He has no points in 11 games, gets caved in regularly, has the worst penalty differential and has mustered just eight shots total. His numbers are worse than Polak’s (!) Not good enough, but hopefully Tuesday is the start of better play going forward.
Spare Parts
Curtis McElhinney: In four games in backup duty, McElhinney stopped 102 of 106 shots, good for a .964 (!) save percentage. Yeah, that’ll do.
Andreas Borgman: He wasn’t playing terribly by any means, but it was clear as day Dermott surpassed him on the depth chart.
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Matt Martin: I’m amazed this inevitability came so soon. After appearing in every game but one since signing a four-year deal, Martin has been a healthy scratch in 13 straight. And the Leafs haven’t missed a beat, playing their best hockey of the season. As it turns out, playing four line hockey works wonders. Who knew?
Frederik Gauthier: There’s very little to suggest Gauthier is an NHL-calibre player at this point. A 38-per-cent possession rate on this team will not cut it.
Justin Holl: Just two NHL games for Holl, but they were pretty damn good performances. He had a goal in both games, was somehow a plus-26 Corsi and plus-five in goals. Not a bad intro to the big leagues.
(Top photo: Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images)
