State of the Predators: Sell or stand pat? Has the price for Mikael Granlund just gone up?

Less than 24 hours before the NHL trade deadline, Predators reporter Adam Vingan and Nashville columnist Joe Rexrode took their socially distanced seats in the press box at Bridgestone Arena on Sunday evening. While watching the Predators pick up a crucial shootout win against the Dallas Stars, they discussed the state of the team.  

Vingan: For the past couple of months, Joe, we have engaged in breathless speculation and had countless conversations about the direction of the Predators. As the deadline looms, have you bought into this team based on what we have seen over the past month, or are you still selling?

Rexrode: I began to type my answer right after Stars forward Roope Hintz ripped a shot past Predators goaltender Juuse Saros early in the first period. (For the record, before the pass reached Hintz, Adam said, “Uh oh.”) 

I take some issue with your question. Yes, I am buying into this team over the past month. The effort, cohesion and goaltending have been spectacular and have led to an incredible turnaround despite a ridiculous amount of injuries. I am still selling if I can, at least when it comes to expiring contracts. This team can still make the playoffs without forward Mikael Granlund, assuming others get healthy at some point. That is happening, right?

Vingan: For once, the Predators had good news to share on the injury front Saturday.

Defenseman Ryan Ellis, who missed 20 games over six weeks with an injured hand, returned to the lineup against the Tampa Bay Lightning, a welcome sight for a beat-up team.

That leaves just nine Predators players on the injured list. Defenseman Dante Fabbro and forwards Mathieu Olivier and Eeli Tolvanen were the latest casualties during the team’s series against the Detroit Red Wings last week. (It could have been worse; forward Viktor Arvidsson recently avoided serious injury.)

Predators injuries

Player	Injury	Timetable	Last Game
Mark Borowiecki	Upper body	Week to week	March 11
Alexandre Carrier	Lower body	3-5 weeks	April 1
Matt Duchene	Lower body	Week to week	March 4
Dante Fabbro	Upper body	Week to week	April 6
Filip Forsberg	Upper body	Week to week	March 25
Mathieu Olivier	Lower body	4-6 weeks	April 8
Brad Richardson	Lower body	Week to week	March 9
Luca Sbisa	Upper body	Week to week	Jan. 24
Eeli Tolvanen	Lower body	Week to week	April 6

The fact that the Predators have been able to string together 12 wins in 15 games while missing several regulars and relying on rookies is nothing short of remarkable. But it is only natural to wonder how much longer they can maintain this level of play, especially against the top teams in the Central Division.

Despite losing 3-0 to the Lightning on Saturday, the Predators were not overmatched, controlling offensive-zone possession (7:32 to 5:48) and putting 16 slot shots on net, according to Sportlogiq.

“The team as a whole, it’s like night and day,” Ellis said Saturday. “I felt when I got hurt, every night was a battle and we were working, but nothing was happening for us. Tonight, it felt like years past, where we were just buzzing in the (offensive) zone, making good plays, getting chances. … The way the team played, it was definitely not the result, but the identity was there.”

Still, the Predators are 3-13-1 this season against the Lightning, Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers, one of whom would be their first-round playoff opponent if they qualify.

The Predators hope to have forwards Matt Duchene and Filip Forsberg back soon, though it sounds like Duchene is behind schedule, based on his recent interviews on your radio show.

You said you want the Predators to trade Granlund, who has held their battered lineup together. What would the return package have to be to make it worthwhile?

Rexrode: A second-round pick is a no-brainer and an absolute must. You have to be realistic about the Predators’ ceiling and fortify the future of the franchise, if possible. If the best Predators general manager David Poile can do is a third-round pick, then that is a more difficult discussion. I would probably still do it, though.

The young players stepping up this season has been really encouraging, but the Predators need to replenish their farm system. Do my prices seem reasonable to you?

Vingan: Things were simpler a month ago, when the Predators were clear sellers.

I do not anticipate a busy deadline for the Predators. Since defenseman Mattias Ekholm is unlikely to be traded at this juncture, Granlund is the team’s most valuable asset.

A second-round draft pick sounds right for Granlund, though I see veteran forward Nick Foligno being traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs for first- and fourth-round draft picks and wonder if the Predators could get something like that. (I doubt it.)

The question is whether the Predators value a trip to the playoffs more than accumulating future assets.

Rexrode: So you think that if they trade Granlund, then they are punting on the playoffs? Duchene can slide right into the center spot on the second line and do the same things? When Forsberg and Tolvanen return, this team is a lot more dangerous. You also have a lot of unsung players chipping in right now, which has been the most enjoyable aspect of watching the Predators this season. (Forwards Tanner Jeannot and Yakov Trenin were pancaking Stars players left and right Sunday.)

I fully understand the business side of making the playoffs right now. Revenue is down. I just feel like a “soft sell,” to borrow your term, could be the best of both worlds. Also, in light of that Leafs deal, is there an obvious Granlund suitor left?

Vingan: The Maple Leafs had long been connected to Granlund. Now that they are presumably out of the running, there is no obvious fit. What about a reunion with Peter Laviolette in Washington? (I kid.)

To answer your first question, the Predators’ playoff chances do not hinge on Granlund, but as a league executive told The Athletic’s Craig Custance when discussing the Predators, “It’s a hard sell to your sponsors, your season ticket holders, your owner, that you’re in a playoff spot and selling. That’s not what typically happens.”

The Predators have a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to Dom Luszczyszyn. This season, “going for it” means standing pat at the deadline. I predict a quiet day in Nashville.

Rexrode: I imagine it would be difficult to sell the idea of selling to the players on a team that is overachieving at the moment. The Predators in their current state cannot create many chances and should not win many games against good teams, but here they are. This is a resilient group that will push forward if Granlund leaves Monday.

(Photo of Granlund: John Russell / Getty Images)