On March 14, the Predators were 11-16-1 and 10 points out of a playoff spot in the Central Division. General manager David Poile’s approach to the trade deadline seemed simple — sell, sell, sell.
The next day, the Predators beat the Tampa Bay Lightning, the first of 12 wins in 15 games leading into Monday’s deadline, which came and went without much movement in Nashville.
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“We started winning,” Poile said, “and there was less need for people to call me and less need for me to want to call other people.”
Defenseman Mattias Ekholm, who at one point was the most talked-about player in trade rumors, is still here. So is pending free-agent forward Mikael Granlund, who surely could have netted the Predators a future asset or two.
Poile, however, did trade for pugnacious Ottawa Senators defenseman Erik Gudbranson, who joins his fifth team since signing a three-year, $12 million contract with the Vancouver Canucks in February 2018. (The cost — a 2023 seventh-round draft pick and defensive prospect Brandon Fortunato — was low, at least.)
Erik Gudbranson (to Nashville, inexplicably) is an extremely poor defender. pic.twitter.com/s7qanvAzl9
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) April 12, 2021
It was the type of depth move that Poile has made at recent deadlines, when the Predators were thought to be legitimate contenders. The big difference this time is that these Predators are not. They might not even make the playoffs.
Even Poile acknowledged that, which makes his decisions more confounding.
“I think that’s really reaching for it to say that we’re a Stanley Cup contender right now,” Poile said. “We need to make the playoffs first. That would be a significant step from where we were to get there.”
The fact that the Predators have been able to revive their season while missing several regulars because of injury and relying on rookies is nothing short of remarkable. Poile said he has “a lot more optimism today than there was last year at this time,” crediting the players’ renewed work ethic, the strides made by the team’s prospects and significantly improved goaltending.
“I can really see the outline of what the puzzle looks like, and it looks like a team to me right now,” Poile said. “That’s what the puzzle looks like. It looks like the Nashville Predators are a really good, close-knit team.”
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But Poile’s job requires realism. This season, the Predators have a 3-13-1 record against the Lightning, Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers, one of whom would be their first-round opponent. (Seven of their final 13 games are against those teams, and Poile said that none of the nine injured players are expected back this week.)
“The top three teams in our division have been dominant in terms of us playing against them,” Poile said.
Resident number-cruncher Dom Luszczyszyn ran simulations of each potential series using his Game Score Value Added algorithm. It gave the Lightning an 80.4 percent chance and the Hurricanes a 68.4 percent chance of beating the Predators, respectively. A series against the Panthers was a coin flip at 50.8 percent.
Upsets happen, as the 2016-17 Predators can attest. This was not the season to go for it, though. It would have been more worthwhile for Poile to accumulate assets that could have helped the team in the future.
When asked about Ekholm, who is under contract through next season, Poile made it sound like he never seriously entertained the idea of trading him.
“His name got thrown out there a lot in trade baits and different things,” Poile said. “My next conversation with Mattias will be after this year about how he thinks he fits into the future of this hockey club and whether he would like to be here longer, not whether we want to trade him.”
Even so, Poile was given a rare opportunity at a do-over with Granlund, whom he held onto at the deadline last year. Granlund has been indispensable as the Predators have dealt with countless injuries, but he is not irreplaceable. (The same goes for forward Erik Haula, who is also on an expiring contract.)
Perhaps Poile’s most telling comment Monday was in response to a question about when he decided not to sell.
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“In my heart, I was not open to it because of how I believed in this team and wanted to give them a chance,” Poile said. “But as a manager, I was taking calls, and I was listening, because I think that’s free, and why wouldn’t I? But I had pretty well made up my mind a little while ago based on how things were going that it would have to be something that would be really different than anything that I had heard or had been brought up to me to make me want to change where we are right now.”
He later said, “When you’re playing poker, I like to be all-in. It’s a much better position than sitting on the sidelines.”
His lack of activity at the deadline might be his biggest gamble yet.
(Photo of Mikael Granlund, Mattias Ekholm and Erik Haula: John Russell / NHLI via Getty Images)