It’s easy to have high expectations for Alexis Lafrenière, Kaapo Kakko and Vitali Kravtsov. The future is now for the New York Rangers as the second-youngest team in the NHL, and their top picks from the past three drafts are a big part of it.
The Rangers’ path to sustained contention relies on the progress of their young core, which is happening in real time at hockey’s highest level. All eyes are on these three budding wingers and their growth.
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But development isn’t linear. There isn’t one perfect method that fits all players or one straight line to success — not even for those in similar roles.
Any path to success for a young player — Lafrenière is 19 and was the No. 1 pick in 2020, Kakko 20 and No. 2 in 2019, and Kravtsov 21 and No. 9 in 2018 — should be expected to include steps forward, sideways and backward.
The higher a player is drafted, according to the work of Michael Schuckers and The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn, the greater the impact they’re expected to make and the sooner they’re anticipated to reach that impact status.
According to Luszczyszyn’s model, which employs Game Score Value Added (GSVA), a No. 1 pick is expected to add 17.7 wins over his first seven NHL seasons, while No. 2 adds 12.3 wins. There’s a steep drop-off after the top few picks. Ninth, for example, is worth 6.3 wins.
With any analysis, there will be outliers. Brayden Point, who was drafted No. 79 overall, for example, has already in his five seasons been worth far more (13.89 wins) than a player selected in that slot should be expected to be worth in seven seasons (1.7 wins). And of course, those who are drafted high — even first overall — can fall below average, as well. The viz below helps highlight the disparity that can appear even between top picks.
Viz by Prashanth Iyer
The Rangers experienced this firsthand last season with Kakko, who had one of the worst statistical seasons in the league. At five-on-five, the team was worse on both ends of the ice with the rookie deployed, relative to his teammates.
“In some circumstances, it’s the speed that’s too much (for young players) — the size, the strength, the travel, the schedule that’s too much, you name it,” Rangers associate general manager Chris Drury said. “It’s the best league in the world for a reason. The league doesn’t sit around and wait for anyone to adjust.”
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A season later, the Rangers are seeing Kakko start to find his level. He may only have 13 points in 39 games, but he’s been one of the best influences on the team’s play on both ends of the ice.
“He’s a year older — obviously a lot can happen in a young man’s life in a year,” said Drury, whose seen improvement in Kakko’s confidence and on- and off-ice strength as well as his play.
It wasn’t straight-line progress to this point, though, and there’s still work to be done. While there’s no question that Kakko’s taken strides and continues to, there have been steps backward, too. You can see those in his rolling average game score this season:
When a player struggles, teams have to assess what’s happening and how best to move forward.
“It depends what it is,” Drury said. “If it’s a minor thing that can be adjusted quickly, if it’s a bigger thing that has to be figured out at a lower level, if it’s a tweak here or there, if it’s just a night off, a rest, watching the game from 10 floors up, or working on something in practice.
“It’s really not one-size-fits-all. On a case-by-case basis with each player, we figure out how to help them and get over whatever hurdle they may be trying to get over.”
One adjustment that’s easy to spot is when a player’s role and ice-time change. Lafrenière, for example, was moved from the top six to the third line, and his minutes decreased. Kravtsov is playing fourth-line minutes to start his NHL career but has taken shifts higher in the lineup.
Rhys Jessop, a former analyst and amateur scout for the Florida Panthers, said reducing a player’s role can be the right move, depending on the situation.
“It’s pretty easy to see if a player is getting snowed under in a specific role at a specific level, and I don’t think that’s ever productive,” Jessop said. “It’s like progressive overload with weight training. You never want to just dive right into the heaviest weights and struggle, but you can increase your capacity to what you can handle at your current ability and improve by growing that capacity.”
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Coaches often ease younger players into the lineup. That’s been the case with David Quinn in New York, particularly at the forward position. Part of that is driven by their winger depth, and part by the team’s need to balance development with performance while it remains in the playoff race.
But even when a player’s ice time is reduced to avoid overwhelming him, he still needs a role that will be conducive to success.
“I think you want to put (young players) in positions where you’re, A. maximizing the number of reps they’re getting over a period of time, and B. challenging them without overwhelming them,” Jessop said. “You want them to be developing mastery of skills and habits, so you need to allow them to fail, but not so much that there’s no chance of success.
“Is the line a time-waster for the coach, where they’re just asking the players to chip it in, chip it out and get off? Then I don’t want a young player on that line. Is the line trying to expose and outplay depth on other teams? Sure then, that’s totally fine. Is the line a high-leverage group playing against top opposition but they’re getting stomped? Well, despite the challenge and responsibility, that might be too much, too soon and hurt in the long run, as well.”
Kakko’s usage, when he was at times treading water last season, was lessened. His ice time dwindled as the regular season went on, and he wasn’t leaned on in high-leverage situations.
This season, the shift in Kakko’s game has earned him more minutes, and he continues to push for more. There have been glimpses of the strengths that helped propel him up the draft rankings in the first place — like his ability to cycle the puck through the offensive zone with possession — on a more consistent basis, even when he doesn’t appear on a scoresheet.
A more unexpected change is the strides he’s taken defensively. The Rangers were 22 percent weaker than league average defensively with Kakko deployed last season, allowing 3.07 expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five; this season, they’re 16 percent stronger than league average with the sophomore on the ice, limiting opponents to an expected goals rate of 2.11 per 60.
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Via HockeyViz
Kakko’s evolution into a more defensively aware player hasn’t come at the expense of his offense, but that isn’t always the case. There often is an emphasis on whether young, offensively inclined players should be focusing on adding more structure to their game.
“We hear a ton of young players needing to learn how to play defense, and while I don’t think that’s wrong, I also think it does a bit of a disservice to how growth in offense happens, too,” Jessop said. “Just like how a player has to learn how to operate in structures and frameworks and pick up defensive reads off the puck, they need to learn how to manipulate defenders, how to problem solve and how to create on offense. That, just like defense, requires dedicated practice.
“A lot of times, I see young players who don’t become more than depth pieces because the mastery of the offensive game they had at lower levels just wasn’t developed in pro. All the practice time went into structure and defense and not things like generating scoring chances with off-puck timing or how to attack NHL defenders on angles.”
Kakko has taken strides in learning to shift around NHL defenders and becoming more aware in his own zone. But his developmental track doesn’t necessarily set up a framework for Lafrenière or Kravtsov; each has his own areas to improve.
Lafrenière is experiencing some scoring struggles in his first season, as Kakko did. Also similar to Kakko, he technically is falling behind the curve in Year 1 compared to other first overall picks. But the two players’ first-year struggles, despite those similarities, aren’t carbon copies of each other.
Lafrenière has shown an ability to drive play and a relentlessness in pursuing possession of the puck. The Rangers create more offense with him deployed, and he’s frequently set up teammates with shot assists. But he isn’t consistently firing the puck on net and doesn’t have the most shooting luck in general, which may be why he doesn’t always exude confidence. A lack of power-play time also does hem his scoring potential.
The rookie isn’t a defensive stalwart in his first NHL experience. He isn’t a liability, per se, but he also doesn’t make the team more solid in its own end. But just because that side of Kakko’s game made drastic improvements from year to year doesn’t mean Lafrenière’s will, and growth there may not drive his usage either, necessarily. Becoming a more consistent offensive threat likely is what will drive Lafrenière’s playing time in the near future.
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Kravtsov has played just 10 NHL games to start. His path to this point already differs from numerous other KHLers that he could easily be compared to. His minutes have been fairly limited to the fourth line at even strength and he hasn’t seen power-play minutes yet, so there’s only so much to draw from this small sample. So far, though, you can see flashes of the skill that made him successful in the KHL — from the pressure he puts on the opponents’ defense, to his crafty passes and effective shot.
But just as Lafrenière and Kakko’s abilities differ, despite the fact that both play the same position and face similar pressures as high draft picks, so, too, do Kravtsov’s. His progress can’t be directly compared to the others. Already, Kravtsov is outplaying his linemates on the fourth line. A future promotion to the top six may not necessarily mean he’s outperformed the duo of wingers on the third line. It may be as simple as his style fitting better on a particular line, or the coaches working around combinations they want to keep in place.
Measurements for each skater, Drury said, have to be taken on a “player-by-player basis.”
“There’s different ways we look at things,” Drury said. “What we expect from each player is different, and there’s really no cookie-cutter model that we expect them all to do specific things the same way.”
When it comes to instilling more defensive structure, Drury said it can depend on the player’s intentions.
“You could sit in a meeting, or as a player, sit down with a coach and say, ‘Yes, I get it,’ and then when a game starts, what are that player’s intentions?,” Drury said. “Was it just lip service or are they really trying to adjust to the pro game and play on the right side of the puck all over the ice? Are they cheating? Or are they just not getting it?
“But again, I think it’s just that each individual is different and learns differently and we’re always trying to find ways to teach and help players become the best players they can be as quickly as they can.”
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While the approach may vary for each player, there’s another essential aspect of the process built off the ice for all players.
“’Development’ is a pretty nebulous topic that encompasses a lot of things,” Jessop said. “I think a mistake that a lot of people make — not just publicly but in the industry, too — is thinking that development is something that only happens in live game action.”
Teams having a dedicated developmental staff is relatively new in the arc of the league’s history, Drury explained, and he stressed the importance of the relationship-building with drafted and signed players playing outside the NHL that Jed Ortmeyer, the Rangers’ director of player development (Drury’s former role), and his staff do.
The expectations are high for the Rangers’ young core, and the team’s future success hinges on their growth. The paths Lafrenière, Kakko and Kravtsov take, and their timelines, will vary and can’t be measured against each other, but how each finds his way forward individually is what matters.
“They all come from different areas of the globe, from different leagues and different size ice,” Drury said. “It’s our job, no matter how we get them, to help them become the best players they can be.”
— Data via Evolving-Hockey and HockeyViz
(Photo of Alexis Lafrenière and Vitali Kravtsov: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
