There’s no better story in hockey right now than the Canucks. No team was hit harder by COVID-19 and the situation post-outbreak was brutal with an attempt to bring the team back far too early and a grueling grind of a schedule for a month after. And yet they found a way, against all odds, to sweep the Leafs — two wins that put Vancouver right back into the playoff picture. A lot of people will look down on the Leafs (who played well in both games), but it’s probably more meaningful to look up at the Canucks.
Advertisement
Those were some gutsy, heart-driven wins that fans won’t soon forget. The Canucks deserve 16 Stats of their own for what just happened.
24 days: The Canucks were off the ice for the longest period of any team who suffered an outbreak, with no other team needing more than two weeks off. Vancouver was almost at a month — though that’s partially due to already having a week off before the shutdown.
6.2 percent: The Canucks playoff chances on March 25, the day after their last game before the outbreak. A long shot by every definition.
5-7-0: Montreal went into a bit of a tailspin since March 24 and suddenly look vulnerable in the playoff race, leaving a glimmer of hope in Vancouver’s playoff quest.
4-7-0: Calgary didn’t fare much better, failing to seize on an opportunity brought on by Montreal’s struggles. That’s left the Canucks in the driver’s seat for that fifth spot. Vancouver’s playoff chances went up one percentage point since March 24 without the Canucks playing a single game.
7.8 percent: Because I’m a betting man and wanted to do my due diligence on the game, I looked back at the four teams who suffered massive outbreaks — Buffalo, Minnesota, New Jersey, Philadelphia — and their records after returning. In the 15 games post-return, the four teams were expected to win 28.7 games (47.8 percent). They won 24 (40 percent). That’s a massive difference, one that would’ve been made worse if not for Minnesota going on a little run. The Wild won 11 of 20, while Buffalo won two, New Jersey won four, and Philadelphia won seven. Given the talent on Vancouver’s roster, it was fair to expect something close to the latter three.
6.7 wins: Making things harder for the Canucks: Elias Pettersson still wasn’t ready for a return, and they’d be without Nate Schmidt and Thatcher Demko. Those are three very important players, worth 6.7 combined wins, and their absence greatly reduced Vancouver’s chances Sunday.
Advertisement
Plus-313: The Canucks odds were plus-313 underdogs on the money line (meaning $100 nets you $313 profit if they win), the lowest in a decade according to research from Cole Anderson. That’s an implied probability of 23 percent. In his latest 31 Thoughts, Elliotte Friedman went even further and reported that the plus-331 line (different books have different lines) was the lowest since 2006. Part of that is home ice being worthless this year, and the other part likely has to do with the big drop-off post-outbreak experienced by other teams. I certainly factored that in and paid dearly for it.
11.4 percent: The game didn’t start great as the Canucks were outplayed badly early and fell into an early 2-0 hole. Their chances were slim at that point, 11.4 percent according to Moneypuck, and arguably even slimmer than that given Moneypuck’s initial odds were significantly more generous to Vancouver to start at around 43 percent. Vancouver scored shortly after that, tied it in the third, and won in overtime to complete the rally.
21-5: Anyone who watched the game saw how lopsided it was. Toronto piled on the chances and didn’t give the Canucks much. According to Natural Stat Trick, Toronto won the high danger chance battle by a margin of 21-to-5. By expected goals, the Leafs were at 73 percent, their fourth-highest mark of the season. Toronto won all three other games.
7.5-4.2: Excluding empty-net situations, Toronto handily controlled the chance share over both games, earning about three more expected goals than the Canucks over both games.
1.8 xG: Auston Matthews took 12 shots over the two games and was held to just one goal. He was responsible for 1.8 expected goals on his own, nearly half of Vancouver’s entire total.
8-5: Of course, the actual goals were the complete opposite. Vancouver outscored Toronto 8-5 over the two games with goalies in the net, adding an extra one in the second game for insurance.
Advertisement
74 saves: This story isn’t complete without mentioning Braden Holtby, who may just be the biggest reason Vancouver was able to complete the sweep. Holtby made 74 stops on 79 shots, frequently facing a barrage of high-quality chances — especially on the first night. Over the two games, Holtby saved 2.7 goals more than expected of an average goalie.
1.80: Captain Bo Horvat is probably the other big hero from the two-game set. He was electric in the first game, his energy palpable through the screen as he put in everything he could to make things happen. Over the two games, Horvat had an average Game Score of 1.80 thanks to two goals, an assist and a plus-three at five-on-five. His linemate Nils Hoglander was also up there.
18.8 percent: After beating Toronto twice, the Canucks suddenly have life in the playoff race and now have a 1-in-5 shot at making it (previously, this was 25 percent, but there was, unfortunately, an error with Vancouver’s underlying strength in my model that oversold the team’s ability). That’s huge for a team that many had already written off and while those odds don’t account for the team coming off COVID-19, or the condensed schedule, it shows that yes, there’s a chance.
69th all-time win against Toronto on 4/20: Nice.
16 Stats
1. I imagine there’s a lot of panic in Toronto after five straight losses, especially after two to a ravaged Canucks team (I don’t know if many realize what a big loss Zach Hyman was to the team’s win probability on that second night either). It’s fair to question the Leafs, but this is also a team that won nine of their previous 10 which makes them 9-3-3 over their previous 15 games. In that time frame, the Leafs are second in expected goals percentage to only Colorado at 58 percent. Those are strong numbers, contending numbers.
There are legitimate things to worry about, like the power play and goaltending, but both things have a tendency to ebb and flow throughout the season. Everything in Toronto is always magnified to extreme heights where there’s a tendency to miss the forest for the trees. Everyone seems to agree that nothing matters until they win a series anyway, so why stress over problems that will probably fix themselves?
A power play with this level of talent at its disposal will probably convert at 20-to-25 percent in the long run, not go on an icy 1-in-43 streak. Jack Campbell wasn’t going to be a .940 goalie forever and was very likely to come down to earth. Would you rather those stat corrections happen now when it barely matters or in May during the first round?
Advertisement
2. One very promising development with Toronto: the recent play of John Tavares. He’s produced much closer to an $11 million man of late, the player many hoped he could still be after some early-season struggles. In April, Tavares has six goals and 14 points in 10 games while sporting a 62 percent expected goals percentage — good for an average Game Score of 1.71.
It’s been by far his best stretch of the season, but he’s been quietly consistent all season. According to his skater card at Hockey Stat Cards, after starting the season with four subpar games (games below the 35th percentile) in his first eight, he’s only had two over his last 38, and none in his last 15. That’s mostly because Tavares and his line are frequently on the right side of the puck, even if it hasn’t meant as many points for him. Tavares has a positive expected goals percentage in 76 percent of his last 38 games and 12 of his last 15.
Combine that with his recent production and Tavares has played at a 3.14-win pace. The expectation for an $11 million forward is 3.13 wins. Right on the money.
3. Unsurprisingly, I’m a big fan of Hockey Stat Cards and I’m extremely thankful Cole Palmer liked Game Score enough to make a website for it. The game logs are great for looking at player trends and can help highlight when or why things go right or wrong.
There’s one feature that would be really helpful for a season like this where every game is played within the division, especially come playoff time: matchup specific filters. With how much certain teams and players seem to consistently dominate others, it could be a useful research tool.
Cole was kind enough to put my idea into action, and while it’s not ready for the public yet, I had the opportunity to play with it to find some fun tidbits.
4. Starting with the North Division, one of the biggest stories this year was just how much Edmonton dominated the Senators, going a perfect 9-0. That was on the backs of Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid who went off for 21 points apiece. For the year McDavid has an average Game Score of 1.81 while Draisaitl is at 1.42, but that shoots all the way up to 2.34 and 2.64 respectively against the Senators. Only Matthews (2.45) and Mitch Marner (2.44) were above two against Ottawa. (I’m going to call this the Dunk Index, for the record)
Advertisement
Perhaps surprisingly, Draisaitl vs. Ottawa isn’t the highest average Game Score against one specific team in the North this year. It’s actually McDavid against the Jets where he has four goals, 15 points and an absolutely stupid 75 percent expected goals rate in seven games. That’s good enough for a Game Score of 3.40. As far as I can tell from clicking through every team-by-team matchup, there is only one other above three this season (minimum five games played). That would be Cale Makar against Anaheim with five assists in five games, a 78 percent expected goals rate and a perfect 7-0 goal differential – good for a Game Score of 3.12.
Two Florida players — Aleksander Barkov vs. Chicago and Anthony Duclair vs. Columbus — are close, but have only played four games against each.
5. You are likely wondering where Mika Zibanejad against the Flyers grades out and how it could possibly not make the cut. As illustrious as Zibanejad’s point production was in those six games (seven goals, 15 points), Game Score takes everything it can into account. His sub-par expected goals rate sadly drags him down to a 2.50 average against Philadelphia. Still incredibly high on the Dunk Index, just not above three.
6. Is Artemi Panarin on the quietest 120-plus point pace ever? Last year he finished third in Hart Trophy voting and has only upped the ante in terms of production this season. Missing 10 games obviously hurts his awards candidacy, but he’s arguably been just as good this season as he was last season. Panarin remains the king of the high danger scoring chance, figuring in on nearly six per 60 (two off shots, four off passes) according to data tracked by Corey Sznajder. The only player higher is Anaheim’s Max Comtois, though there may be some sample size issues there (I can’t imagine Corey is devoting too much time to Anaheim this season).
7. Despite getting thumped on Tuesday by the Islanders, the Rangers still lead the entire East in goal differential at plus-29, an astounding feat for a team very unlikely to make the playoffs. It’s led to many questioning how impressive that stat is and how much it’s buoyed by two blowouts against the Flyers.
It’s a fair question, one that does have some merit. The Flyers aren’t the team New York has outscored most, but the team’s entire goal differential can essentially be chalked up to games against them and the Devils specifically where the team is plus-27. Separate the East into two factions, and it becomes clear that the Rangers really are beating up on the division drek.
Against playoff teams: -2
+8 vs. WSH
Advertisement
-1 vs. BOS
-4 vs. NYI
-5 vs. PIT
Against non-playoff teams: +31
+16 vs. NJD
+11 vs. PHI
+4 vs. BUF
8. Of course, that same argument can apply to the other top teams too who also have the same privilege of pillaging the East’s three weakest groups. The goal differentials for each of the top four teams against the other top four teams show that everyone takes care of business against the also-rans.
Pittsburgh: +5
Boston: +1
Washington: -2
Islanders: -4
It’s all relatively even and that’s because the five top East teams are all likely relatively close in talent. The Rangers just don’t have the record to show for it and based on their goal differential are one of the unluckiest teams in the cap era. The Rangers .565 points percentage is the lowest I can see with a goal differential higher than plus-25.
9. The Dallas Stars are in a similar boat. A points percentage of .556 despite a goal differential of plus-21. The Stars deserve a much better record.
Luckily for Dallas, the playoffs are not only a possibility still, but a likelihood thanks to the general weakness of the Central Division’s bottom half. The Stars are 19-14-12, surging over the last two weeks with points in eight straight and a 6-0-2 record. The Stars have looked better than their record all season (thank the team’s extremely weak overtime play for that) and are finally seeing the results for it. At five-on-five Dallas is a sneaky strong team ranking ninth in expected goals and fifth in actual goals at 56 percent. That latter mark ranks second in the division.
That’s despite the team being in an awful health rut all season, but if things start getting better in that realm they will be a very tough out in the opening round. Especially with Tyler Seguin likely coming back in time for the playoffs.
10. One of the major catalysts of Dallas’ strong play this season has been Roope Hintz. I was absolutely stunned to see Hintz’ stat-line this season: 14 goals and 37 points in 32 games, a full season pace of 36 goals and 95 points. More impressive is that 30 of his points are primary. On a per-game basis, Hintz’s primary point rate is eighth in the league behind some illustrious company. McDavid, Matthews, Panarin, MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Marchand, Pastrnak — seven of the best players in the world. And then Roope Hintz.
Advertisement
This is the big breakout many expected of him last season after a strong playoff showing in 2019, and Hintz has delivered. And that’s despite not even being healthy enough to play every game. It’s incredible.
At five-on-five the Stars have outscored opponents 25-10 with Hintz on the ice and have earned 56.5 percent of the expected goals. A 12 percent on-ice shooting percentage is doing a lot of heavy lifting here, but the underlying numbers are still extremely strong in their own right. He may not be a true-talent 90-point player, but he’s clearly well above the 45-point pace he established last season.
11. Hintz has been cooking at five-on-five, but what he’s done on the power play has really fuelled his offensive explosion. This is his first season getting significant power-play time and he’s making it count with 11.1 points-per-60 this season a mark that leads the entire league. (Sidebar: Nikolaj Ehlers is second at 10.7 – imagine if the Jets used their best forward on the power play?)
That’s probably not sustainable, but it’s very much worth noting that Hintz was very strong in that regard last season too at 7.2 points-per-60, the 11th best mark in the league. That was on Dallas’ high-flying second unit last season, one that stayed hot in the postseason where Hintz again racked up the power play points with 10.5 points-per-60 (though somehow 7.9 of those were secondary assists). He’s a power-play machine and the Stars have really benefitted from it. They had the third-best power play in the playoffs at 22.4 percent and are sixth this year at 23.9 percent.
12. Back to the matchup index for a second as it works the other way around too. The Blackhawks won a comeback thriller last night against the Predators, their first win against Nashville all season bringing their record to 1-4-2. That’s the season right there, the difference between in and out of the playoff race with last night’s one-point increase only bringing the team’s odds up to 11 percent from six percent. It’s a decent jump, but there’s still a ways to go.
What’s immediately apparent in looking at the matchup data is how well the Predators have done at shutting Patrick Kane down. In seven games Kane has zero goals, four assists, has been outscored 9-5 at five-on-five and carries just a 39 percent expected goals rate. His average Game Score against Nashville is minus-0.19, way down from his full-season rate of 0.81. It’s hard to win when your best player isn’t your best player.
13. Tampa Bay knows that far too well right now, staring at a 5-6-0 record in April as Victor Hedman has been far from his usual self. Remember when his name was seemingly already written in Sharpie on the Norris Trophy? Well, his game has really fallen off a cliff in April to the point where we might need to reconsider. Hedman is still scoring and has nine points in 11 games, but Tampa Bay has also been outscored 17-to-8 with him on the ice and he has an ugly 38.8 percent expected goals rate. That’s the worst mark on the team over that stretch of time and likely helps explain why Tampa Bay is 5-6-0 in April.
Advertisement
Hedman hasn’t been the same rock he usually is and this poor stretch has dropped his full-season five-on-five numbers to firmly average territory. Hedman has just a 49 percent actual goal rate (better than only Luke Schenn) and 50 percent expected goal rate (better than only Jan Rutta and Cal Foote). Remember, he doesn’t play tough minutes either and plays the most with Tampa Bay’s top six too. Something is up here (injury? boredom?) and maybe it’ll be solved once David Savard gets acclimated with his new team, but it’s something to keep an eye on. The defenseman many believe to be the league’s best hasn’t looked the part.
14. Dougie Hamilton, the best defenseman on the Central’s best team, has far more illustrious numbers and he’s really come on strong over the past few weeks to enter the Norris Trophy discussion himself. Since March 27, Hamilton has been on a heater with 11 points in 13 games, but it’s his play at both ends of the ice worth highlighting. With Hamilton on the ice, the Hurricanes have a 67 percent expected goal rate the highest of any defender over the time frame. For the season, Hamilton is at 58 percent (in tough minutes to boot) and is back in the league’s top 10 where he’s been in each of the last four seasons. He was 13th the year before that.
Last season Hamilton finally started getting his due around the league, putting together a Norris-worthy campaign before it was derailed by injuries. After a slower start, he’s back on that level again this year and by GSVA has been worth 2.2 wins, second among defensemen behind only Adam Fox. A strong finish plus a Fox dropoff could make Hamilton the front-runner.
15. Taylor Hall in five games as a Bruin: two goals, one assist and a very nice 69 percent expected goals rate. I still cannot believe he only cost a second-round pick. I understand the context around it and the NMC — but it still absolutely boggles my mind. He’s fit like a glove on that Bruins second line which features Craig Smith, another analytics darling who has been tearing it up of late with 16 points in his last 13 games.
16. I take no pleasure in reporting this as the number one Minnesota Wild fan, but it must be put out there. It’s been over a month since the Wild have outshot an opponent, going 19 straight games, yet somehow earning an 11-5-2 record in the process. At five-on-five the team has been abhorrent with the league’s worst Corsi at 42 percent and the fifth-worst expected goals rate at 44 percent. The Wild have long been a shot quality team, always doing better by expected goals than shot attempts, but no amount of shot quality can save 42 percent of the shot attempts.
It’s been an awful stretch, one that’s sunk the team’s full season numbers to 10th in expected goals (52 percent) and fifth last in Corsi (46 percent). It’s especially odd because the Wild were second in the league in expected goals prior to the epic drop-off. And that doesn’t include last night’s brutal game against the Coyotes where they only earned 37 percent of the expected goals at five-on-five.
It feels sort of like a Freaky Friday switch as the team used to have the worst power play in the league, but has since seen that jump all the way to first since March 15. If not for that, the Wild would be in a very bad place over the last month. Minnesota will need both its even-strength acumen and sudden power-play proficiency running at the same time if the Wild want to stand any chance against Vegas or Colorado in the playoffs.
Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, NHL, Hockey Stat Cards and Corey Sznajder
(Top photo of the Vancouver Canucks: Jeff Vinnick / NHLI via Getty Images)”n
