Lowetide: Why Raphael Lavoie could be a perfect fit for the Oilers in 2021-22

At the 2019 NHL draft, the Edmonton Oilers were a team in transition. Ken Holland’s hiring was first reported on May 5, 2019, and the draft took place on the weekend of June 21-22 in Vancouver. Many believe the first-round selection (Philip Broberg) was Holland-aided, as the organization rarely mentioned the player before the new general manager arrived. The hype on Broberg was nonstop from Holland’s arrival through draft day.

The selection of Broberg did not address the team need (offensive forwards), and many qualified players were taken off the board between Edmonton’s first- and second-round selections.

In another case of good fortune for the Oilers at the draft, Raphael Lavoie was still on the board when the club’s next turn arrived. The result wouldn’t be known for several years, but the moment Edmonton chose Lavoie at No. 38, the selection had the look of a perfect fit.

Almost two years later, nothing has changed my mind.

Volume shooter

Lavoie was already a volume shooter on draft day, then spiked in junior during his draft-plus-one season. His pro career in North America has barely started, but he’s active offensively and shooting often.

His junior volume was exceptional and indicated Lavoie could emerge as one of the truly outstanding snipers of his draft class. The most encouraging number in the graph is Lavoie’s shooting percentage in the AHL. Early days, but I’ve watched his games for the Bakersfield Condors, and he’s a wonder in the scoring zone with the puck on his stick. As Scott Wheeler indicated in a 2020 article about Lavoie for The Athletic, the young sniper is all about angles and release.

His unique qualities make him the perfect workaround for a team desperate for a high-volume marksman.

The most impressive shooter in Lavoie’s draft year (Arthur Kaliyev) is likely to be the gold standard in this category from the forwards chosen in 2019. Kaliyev was chosen five spots before Lavoie and is nine months younger. It’s still interesting to see how their careers are rolling out post-draft. Here are Kaliyev’s volume shooting numbers:

Lavoie’s age means Kaliyev has more track, and this is unlikely to be a good comparable in two years (Kaliyev is 19 and playing in the AHL). It does tell us that Lavoie has been delivering the kind of statistics one would expect from a future first-shot scorer.

Condors rookies

Since 2015-16, some fine rookie scorers have found their way to Bakersfield and spent all or part of a season with the Oilers’ AHL farm club. Here are the primary scorers over those six seasons, with Lavoie’s brief time in the league included for comparison.

Condors rookies since 2015

Player	YEAR	AGE	S	S/G	S%
Jesse Puljujarvi	2016-17	18	109	2.79	11
Tyler Benson	2018-19	20	173	2.54	8.7
Raphael Lavoie	2020-21	20	31	2.38	12.9
Cooper Marody	2018-19	21	138	2.38	13.77
Anton Slepyshev	2015-16	21	113	2.31	11.5
Kailer Yamamoto	2018-19	19	45	1.67	22.2
Ryan McLeod	2019-20	20	69	1.23	7.3

The list implies that shot volume (Jesse Puljujarvi leads the pack and is in the NHL now) and accuracy (Kailer Yamamoto had a 22 percent shooting percentage out of the box) are both effective routes to NHL skill lines. It’s possible Lavoie will land high in both categories. So far, he has adjusted seamlessly as a shooter. There are other elements of his game that could keep him in the minors for some time.

Competition

Edmonton has plenty of free-agent dollars to spend on scoring wingers this summer and that may mean Lavoie spends a second season in California.

There’s also the matter of competition. Holland and coach Dave Tippett tried Ryan McLeod as No. 2 centre against the Calgary Flames on Saturday and have promoted Yamamoto and Puljujarvi to skill roles in the past 15 months. Youth shall be served in Edmonton as management casts about for snipers to run with the team’s elite centres. This year’s Condors offer an interesting group of scorers who have a chance at an NHL career, and college man Dylan Holloway is also a player of interest for next season:

Player	League	Age	S	S/G	S%
Dylan Holloway	Big Ten	19	77	3.35	14.3
Cooper Marody	AHL	23	90	2.73	21.1
Tyler Benson	AHL	22	77	2.57	13
Raphael Lavoie	AHL	20	31	2.38	12.9
Ryan McLeod	AHL	21	63	2.25	22.2
Ostap Safin	AHL	21	26	1.63	15.4

Holloway’s numbers came in college so can’t be directly compared, but based on what he’s done, one could reasonably expect a full audition for the 2020 first-round selection during training camp in the fall.

Marody and Benson are AHL veterans now, so their totals include a couple of years of experience. Despite impressive numbers throughout each man’s entry deal, Edmonton management has kept them in the minors during a time when a pure scorer was badly needed. That’s a tell.

The numbers posted by Lavoie (and McLeod in his first feature role) would appear to be the most promising from the Condors and the college group of 2020-21.

NHL snipers

Edmonton needs four first-shot scoring wingers for the two skill lines. Here are the numbers for Edmonton’s forwards who have spent major time in skill roles this season:

Oilers skill forwards, 2020-21

Player	Age	S	S/G	S%
Connor McDavid	23	178	3.63	16.3
Leon Draisaitl	24	144	2.94	16.7
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	27	120	2.67	11.7
Jesse Puljujarvi	22	99	2.06	12.1
Kailer Yamamoto	21	65	1.38	12.3
Dominik Kahun	25	54	1.32	11.1

Dominik Kahun is the easiest of these players to replace, but Yamamoto’s shot volume is also concerning. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a free agent this summer.

For Lavoie, the key will be continuing to post strong AHL scoring numbers while also improving in coverage and other areas that need fine-tuning. With the Condors, Lavoie spends a little time each shift in coast mode. Coach Jay Woodcroft and his staff have done an excellent job of ironing out habits picked up in junior hockey, and that tendency is likely on the list.

The next step is delivering on opportunity. A guess would have Edmonton re-signing Nugent-Hopkins and adding another left winger via free agency (Tomas Tatar would be a worthy candidate) over the summer.

What does that mean for Lavoie? If he keeps scoring goals in the AHL, his opportunity will come. If we break down his 13 AHL games, he didn’t score in the first two games, lit it up (4-3-7) in the following six games and has struggled since McLeod was recalled to Edmonton (no goals in five games).

That tells us he isn’t driving results at the AHL level yet but rather is an extremely talented complementary winger. McLeod and Seth Griffith had assists on two of Lavoie’s four goals; finding chemistry with new linemates could take a little time.

There’s no real hurry for Lavoie, but coming up on two seasons after his draft, the young man continues to deliver the kind of offence expected from a future NHL scorer. He’s a little under the radar compared with Holloway, who is a first-round selection with a more complete set of skills.

Edmonton needs a pure goal scorer, and Lavoie is exactly that kind of player. There’s a very good chance that he’s less than a calendar year away from his first NHL look.

(Top photo: Kevin Light / Getty Images)